Is There So Little Love for Tremaine Edmunds?

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

I just didn't understand why Buffalo refused to go 3 LBs no matter how many yards the packers were getting on the ground they were staying in nickel 

They were content with allowing GB to run and waste clock.

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Where the argument against paying Edmunds devolves into because it might hurt Milano's feelings, I think, is a good place to stop.

But by and large it is not about feelings, though some players do make emotional decisions. Mostly it’s about the Bills being able to afford both of them if they have to pay them both equitably - especially if they overpay for Edmunds. Milano has two years left on his deal after this season and is 27 now. If Edmunds takes a more reasonable deal it could still work out. But if he’s looking for something more top of the market - and the Bills give it to him - then they won’t be able to keep Milano too. Best case would be a Poyer scenario where he plays out his deal, but that’s best case. 

[Saxum]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

PFF enters the chat with a strong “disagree”.

 

He’s not even in the top 15 of LB’s in their grading. Milano is #6 overall though.

 

[Einstein]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is their 8th highest graded coverage linebacker. Milano is #1. 

 

Edmunds's overall PFF score is dragged down a bit by his run defense. But I think all pro voters are smart enough to realise it is 2022. Being a thumper in the run game is the cherry on top for a linebacker. It matters way less than the other elements.

 

Milano is #1 among coverage linebackers. What an incredible season he is having!

[Shaw66]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Ok so during those last 2 plays in the KC (13 seconds) game, TE was doing what he always does roaming the middle of the field in that "bend don't break" zone.  Then everything broke.  What's the point of bending if you're going to eventually break. We had 4 straight years of "bend don't break" in the early 90's. How'd that work out?

One thing I've learned over the years on fan forums is that posters have styles.   I don't pay a lot of attention to the styles of others, but I understand something about my own style.   My style is to watch what the Bills are doing and to try to understand what they're doing and why.  I don't spend much time worrying about whether management's philosophy is right or wrong because, well, I can't do anything about that.   I mean, I could see over time that Ralph Wilson wasn't particularly good at running football teams, but I couldn't fire him.   I just watch and try to understand what people are trying to.  In threads about Edmunds, I try to understand how the Bills are using him and whether the Bills get a lot or a little benefit out of that approach.  

 

For example, when Rex Ryan was the coach, I understood that Rex's philosophy was that he could win with a big-play defense.   I could understand that without making a judgment about whether that was the best approach or not.  Then they hired McDermott and defense switched to bend-don't-break.  Okay, that means that now I have understand and live with that approach.   I suppose if I thought about it I'd have an opinion about which is better, but that's just not my style.

 

Did 13-seconds prove that Rex was right and Sean is wrong?  No.  Actually, in what was, I think, Rex's last year with Jets, they lost a game when Rex rushed six with something like 20 seconds left in the game and the opponent beat single coverage for an 85-yard pass, catch and run for the game winning score.  The whole country thought Rex was an idiot.  

 

Defensive philosophy is just philosophy.   Once you have your philosophy, you still have to be prepared, and you have to execute.   The Bills weren't prepared for 13 seconds, and they didn't execute.   I think you could have put any middle linebacker on the field in place of Edmunds - Sam Huff, Brian Uhrlacher, Dick Butkus, Ray Lewis, Keuchle, anyone, and in the defenses the Bills ran, the Chiefs would have gotten the same result.   That loss was on the coaches, but not because of their defensive philosophy.   They and their team were unprepared to defend the whole field in that situation.   The worst example, of course, was that the Bills were defending the sideline to prevent completions and a quick clock stoppage, when the Chiefs had timeouts and didn't need to use the sideline.  That was a classic fail, and it had nothing to do with bend-don't-break.  

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

PFF enters the chat with a strong “disagree”.

 

He’s not even in the top 15 of LB’s in their grading. Milano is #6 overall though.

As one indication of how useless PFF is, consider this:   The market spoke very clearly about what Milano was worth - $10 million a year.  

 

Everyone seems to agree that the market for Edmunds will be $15-$20 million a year.   

 

So, what exactly is the relevance of PFF ranking Milano higher than Edmunds?   It's merely an indication that coaches and GMs understand football and PFF doesn't.  

 

No one would trade Edmunds even up for Milano.  

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As one indication of how useless PFF is, consider this:   The market spoke very clearly about what Milano was worth - $10 million a year.  

 

Everyone seems to agree that the market for Edmunds will be $15-$20 million a year.   

 

So, what exactly is the relevance of PFF ranking Milano higher than Edmunds?   It's merely an indication that coaches and GMs understand football and PFF doesn't.  

 

No one would trade Edmunds even up for Milano.  

 

Yet the majority of the teams in the league have a contract with PFF to use their data in their football operations. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Yet the majority of the teams in the league have a contract with PFF to use their data in their football operations. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I've been amazed at that, too, but I don't think they subscribe for the ratings.  They don't care about the ratings PFF comes up with.  They subscribe for access to searchable data, so they can use it for analytics that matter to them.  

[LABILLBACKER]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

One thing I've learned over the years on fan forums is that posters have styles.   I don't pay a lot of attention to the styles of others, but I understand something about my own style.   My style is to watch what the Bills are doing and to try to understand what they're doing and why.  I don't spend much time worrying about whether management's philosophy is right or wrong because, well, I can't do anything about that.   I mean, I could see over time that Ralph Wilson wasn't particularly good at running football teams, but I couldn't fire him.   I just watch and try to understand what people are trying to.  In threads about Edmunds, I try to understand how the Bills are using him and whether the Bills get a lot or a little benefit out of that approach.  

 

For example, when Rex Ryan was the coach, I understood that Rex's philosophy was that he could win with a big-play defense.   I could understand that without making a judgment about whether that was the best approach or not.  Then they hired McDermott and defense switched to bend-don't-break.  Okay, that means that now I have understand and live with that approach.   I suppose if I thought about it I'd have an opinion about which is better, but that's just not my style.

 

Did 13-seconds prove that Rex was right and Sean is wrong?  No.  Actually, in what was, I think, Rex's last year with Jets, they lost a game when Rex rushed six with something like 20 seconds left in the game and the opponent beat single coverage for an 85-yard pass, catch and run for the game winning score.  The whole country thought Rex was an idiot.  

 

Defensive philosophy is just philosophy.   Once you have your philosophy, you still have to be prepared, and you have to execute.   The Bills weren't prepared for 13 seconds, and they didn't execute.   I think you could have put any middle linebacker on the field in place of Edmunds - Sam Huff, Brian Uhrlacher, Dick Butkus, Ray Lewis, Keuchle, anyone, and in the defenses the Bills ran, the Chiefs would have gotten the same result.   That loss was on the coaches, but not because of their defensive philosophy.   They and their team were unprepared to defend the whole field in that situation.   The worst example, of course, was that the Bills were defending the sideline to prevent completions and a quick clock stoppage, when the Chiefs had timeouts and didn't need to use the sideline.  That was a classic fail, and it had nothing to do with bend-don't-break.  

On your last paragraph I agree the coaches screwed up. No pooch kickoff was properly called. Would've taken seconds off the clock. Why focus so aggressively on the boundaries when KC had all 3 timeouts. I just think great coaches follow their philosophical strategies, but are also willing to occasionally throw a curveball when the opponent is looking fastball. Maybe rushing 5 would've sped up Mahomes's throw? No one on the planet including Andy Reid would expect McD/Frazier to call consecutive man to man coverage on Kelce using Tremaine? They're literally the same size & speed. You can still drop the remaining 5 dbs in zone. Philosophies can always be adjusted based on the circumstances. KC banked on the fact that McD would not deviate. And it worked.  This year we have a better pass rush with Von so maybe that curveball won't needed?

Edited November 6, 2022 by LABILLBACKER

[machine gun kelly]

On 11/5/2022 at 2:51 AM, Bronxbomber21 said:

I just didn't understand why Buffalo refused to go 3 LBs no matter how many yards the packers were getting on the ground they were staying in nickel 

Because we didn’t want to get burned in the air and have the Packers get back in the game.  We stuck in nickel as we made it very hard to pass on the D Backs.

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As one indication of how useless PFF is, consider this:   The market spoke very clearly about what Milano was worth - $10 million a year.  

 

Everyone seems to agree that the market for Edmunds will be $15-$20 million a year.   

 

So, what exactly is the relevance of PFF ranking Milano higher than Edmunds?   It's merely an indication that coaches and GMs understand football and PFF doesn't.  

 

No one would trade Edmunds even up for Milano.  

 

Couple of points on this:

 

1. The "predictions" on Milano were in the $12-13m range. We have no idea what his true market value was because he chose not to test the market and extended here. So I don't accept the market spoke "very clearly" about him. It gave us an indication.

 

2. Milano extended in the reduced cap covid year when deals generally came in a couple of mil below expectations.

 

3. There is also two years market inflation since then.

 

I don't make these points to criticise Edmunds. Not at all. I actually suspect if Edmunds hits the open market on the back of this career type year he is having he will be at the upper end of that $15-20m range. But if Milano hit the market this year he'd be in that bracket too. Probably slightly below Edmunds, because MLBs get paid more than SLBs and WLBs as a rule but they would not be miles apart. 

 

As for Milano being graded by PFF as the best coverage 'backer in the league so far this year... I mean I think that is pretty much borne out by the tape. He has been out-freaking-standing in coverage. Edmunds has been really good in coverage too and as I indicated earlier his PFF grade overall is dragged down by run defense.... but frankly in the moden NFL if you get knocked back 3 or 4 yards on a run play but still make the tackle who cares? The run game is an add on to the modern NFL offense. You saw a team last week run for 200 yards and lose by two scores. 

 

Milano makes more splash plays because of the role he has in this scheme. The expectation should never be for Tremaine to make as many as Matt but just to make his fair share which the past couple of years he has struggled with. Can't say that this year. 

 

On 11/5/2022 at 6:51 AM, Bronxbomber21 said:

I just didn't understand why Buffalo refused to go 3 LBs no matter how many yards the packers were getting on the ground they were staying in nickel 

 

Because we were not struggling to stop them cos of formation or personnel for the most part. The Bills had the guys there to make the tackles and stop a lot of those runs short. They just couldn't get the runner down. Aaron Jones went for 7.2 ypa. If you subtract the yards after contact it was  4.7. 

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

On 10/31/2022 at 10:17 PM, Dablitzkrieg said:

He is doing what he is asked to be doing.  He's an athletic freak that moves extremely well for his size laterally as you said.  I hope you are ready for the flame throwers lol

Dabs, you nailed it right in the beginning of this thread.  McD wants to use Edmunds exactly like they are using him.  Edmunds has improved this year.  I don’t think he’s perfect, but many still think they need a Ray Lewis in the middle.  That’s not McD’s defense.

 

What I don’t know is if Beane can find the $ for his extension.  I can see them trying, but they may have a plan to get Bernard ready to step into Edmunds role.

 

The cap will escalate quite a bit over the next few years, but so will Allen and others contract extensions.

[LeGOATski]

10 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Dabs, you nailed it right in the beginning of this thread.  McD wants to use Edmunds exactly like they are using him.  Edmunds has improved this year.  I don’t think he’s perfect, but many still think they need a Ray Lewis in the middle.  That’s not McD’s defense.

 

What I don’t know is if Beane can find the $ for his extension.  I can see them trying, but they may have a plan to get Bernard ready to step into Edmunds role.

 

The cap will escalate quite a bit over the next few years, but so will Allen and others contract extensions.

Bernard doesn't seem built for Edmunds's role. He seems perfect for Milano's role.

 

Do we thinks MLB is a dime a dozen for McD? Like they're going to just keep drafting replacements? Seems like SLB is more in that category, but based on his history in Carolina, I think McD is fine with paying for 2 stars there. Those two LBs are super important.

[machine gun kelly]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Bernard doesn't seem built for Edmunds's role. He seems perfect for Milano's role.

 

Do we thinks MLB is a dime a dozen for McD? Like they're going to just keep drafting replacements? Seems like SLB is more in that category, but based on his history in Carolina, I think McD is fine with paying for 2 stars there. Those two LBs are super important.

No argument he values Edmunds.  It’s more of can they afford him.  He’s going to draw a significant contract.

[hondo in seattle]

20 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Yet the majority of the teams in the league have a contract with PFF to use their data in their football operations. 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

While I know this is true, I find it weird when we hear players saying the grades they get from their own coaches don't align with PFF.

[Rc2catch]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

No argument he values Edmunds.  It’s more of can they afford him.  He’s going to draw a significant contract.

They can afford mostly any one player they want.  If New Orleans can be 100 million over and still squeak under and even sign players there’s always a way to free money up if you want a player bad enough. Just like New Orleans though to get the player you have to be willing to sacrifice others. They signed Tyrann Mathiue for 3 years 30+ million and then traded away the younger Gardner Johnson for pennies because they couldn’t extend him. Edmunds signing would probably mean no Oliver or possibly Hyde if he’s able to come back healthy. But that’ll be a whole other debate if/when the time comes. 

[Einstein]

Just saw Edmunds estimated contract value on Spotrac.

 

4 yrs, $57,114,436

Avg. Salary: $14,278,609

NFL Rank: 125

ILB Rank: 6

[FireChans]

Let the Edmunds love begin! 
 

He really carried the linebackers today with Milano out.

[MAJBobby]

As much as I have defended Edmunds over the years because of all the responsibilities put in him. 
 

It is time to move on after the season. 

[Brand J]

If we’re going to get gashed in the run game and fail to stop the higher end QBs in the league - or even the Zack Wilson types - then yeah, the guy who makes next to no impact plays can get paid by another team this offseason. Von Miller is great value at $20M/yr, he makes a lot of plays. Milano makes mistakes, but also makes game changing plays at $11M/yr. Paying Edmunds north of $10M/yr isn’t smart money. He just doesn’t make the plays he needs to and is almost never around the ball to do so. Always a step late, or chasing.