Is There So Little Love for Tremaine Edmunds?

[John from Riverside]

27 minutes ago, VaMilBill said:

Like I said, he doesn’t make splash plays. But he eats up a ton of field potentially limiting Kelce from having an even bigger day. 
 

But his best games have been against the Ravens. He is excellent at helping to beat the Ravens. If we lose his speed and range I’d be worried about the Ravens, specifically Lamar, shredding us

I am in no way endorsing letting Edmonds walk but I will say that there is this thing called the draft and we can draft another mobile linebacker if needed

[Orlando Buffalo]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

I am in no way endorsing letting Edmonds walk but I will say that there is this thing called the draft and we can draft another mobile linebacker if needed

Dude is a physical freak even by NFL standards in regards to size, strength, and speed. His judgement of plays has been questioned but we will not replace him his physical gifts in most drafts.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

They do, they just don't call them a MLB.  Tremaine has played the SS position his entire career. He. just happens to have the size and "Title" of a middle linebacker. Beane will find someone in the draft or bargain FA who might be 6-1/6-2 who can play that hybrid role. Maybe I'll just stop using the term hybrid and say our 2nd SS?  Do you think he gets extended?

First, I don't think you're correct about being able to find someone to play the position.  I don't think so because I think that his extra three inches of height and his extra five-six inches of wingspan over a 6-2 guy makes a big difference on the field.   I think it translates into five yards of coverage downfield, and into an ability to cover the middle in the zone more effectively.  I think, for example, that the Bills can succeed with Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, and Benford in part because they have small zones to cover.    I think that's true, but I can't say I've heard anyone say it, exactly.  What we have heard is a lot of players and player personnel people say he's a freak in the middle of the zone.  So, I don't think they can replace him nearly as easily as you think. 

 

Second, I have no idea if he gets extended, because I don't know that McDermott thinks he's indispensable.  He will be expensive, for sure, but I think the Bills will find the money if they think highly of him.  I think it's more likely than not that he's extended.

 

Third, I've been thinking for a few days about what's happening in the NFL.   I think that coordinators have figured out how to stop modern NFL passing offenses, except against the very best, like Allen and Mahomes.  I think that we're starting to see a shift back to running the ball.  Cleveland can win running Nick Chubb this season, but they couldn't two years ago.   I have no idea whether that's right, but McDermott knows.   If that's right, McDermott is going to be telling Beane to go find a Keuchle, a more traditional run-stopping MLB who can defend the pass.  On the other hand, I don't think the NFL will let the league go back to running league, because it's a less interesting product for TV.   I think, as I've said before, we're going to see the rules about offensive holding change.  They're going to make it easier to protect the passer to goose the passing game.  And if that happens, McD likely will still want Tremaine in the middle.  

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

First, I don't think you're correct about being able to find someone to play the position.  I don't think so because I think that his extra three inches of height and his extra five-six inches of wingspan over a 6-2 guy makes a big difference on the field.   I think it translates into five yards of coverage downfield, and into an ability to cover the middle in the zone more effectively.  I think, for example, that the Bills can succeed with Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, and Benford in part because they have small zones to cover.    I think that's true, but I can't say I've heard anyone say it, exactly.  What we have heard is a lot of players and player personnel people say he's a freak in the middle of the zone.  So, I don't think they can replace him nearly as easily as you think. 

 

Second, I have no idea if he gets extended, because I don't know that McDermott thinks he's indispensable.  He will be expensive, for sure, but I think the Bills will find the money if they think highly of him.  I think it's more likely than not that he's extended.

 

Third, I've been thinking for a few days about what's happening in the NFL.   I think that coordinators have figured out how to stop modern NFL passing offenses, except against the very best, like Allen and Mahomes.  I think that we're starting to see a shift back to running the ball.  Cleveland can win running Nick Chubb this season, but they couldn't two years ago.   I have no idea whether that's right, but McDermott knows.   If that's right, McDermott is going to be telling Beane to go find a Keuchle, a more traditional run-stopping MLB who can defend the pass.  On the other hand, I don't think the NFL will let the league go back to running league, because it's a less interesting product for TV.   I think, as I've said before, we're going to see the rules about offensive holding change.  They're going to make it easier to protect the passer to goose the passing game.  And if that happens, McD likely will still want Tremaine in the middle.  

Trenton Simpson, probably a late first rounder. Great size at 6-3 and 240. Much faster than Tremaine at 4.39 and could solve your first and third points. And did I mention it won't cost 14-18M.  And I agree you're going to see a gradual shift back to more emphasis on run attacks by nfl teams. 

[LeGOATski]

9 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I am in no way endorsing letting Edmonds walk but I will say that there is this thing called the draft and we can draft another mobile linebacker if needed

 

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Trenton Simpson, probably a late first rounder. Great size at 6-3 and 240. Much faster than Tremaine at 4.39 and could solve your first and third points. And did I mention it won't cost 14-18M.  And I agree you're going to see a gradual shift back to more emphasis on run attacks by nfl teams. 

Even if he turned out just as good as Edmunds, people will still complain for the same reasons. Anyone drafted to replace Edmunds will be asked to do the same things that Edmunds does, which by nature don't stand out to the casual fan. They won't need to pay as much, but they'll need to deal with a rookie learning curve and potentially a bust.

11 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

6 -3, 240, 4.39 (40).....yikes!

CBS has him currently projected #35 over-all. There you go, someone we could draft on a 5 year rookie contract who could take over for TE.  Maybe he even surprises us with some instincts at the LOS?

Trenton Simpson, remember that name.

If you read that profile, it says he struggles against the run. He's pretty much an Edmunds clone, except a little shorter and a little faster. No idea what kind of intangibles he has or if he's a "process guy."

[benderbender]

We should all be as lucky as Edmunds. I wish that any time my performance was called into question, people just referenced my height/length and it counted as a valid point. Or better yet, my boss said "think of all the accidents he doesn't have."

 

His height/length is only an asset if he uses it. When he's sucked into blocks, over pursues, or doesn't use his pteranodon wingspan to wrap up Aaron Jones, he could be 8 feet tall and it doesn't help. The worst indictment of that argument is that Milano is considered undersized and yet his contributions are never in doubt. 

[damj]

I've been very anti Edmunds, but I've cooled on him. With his size and athleticism, I expect to see him running around and making plays everywhere, which obviously he doesn't. I still think his reactions and angles are bad at times. I've stopping bashing him. The defense is very much a team concept with the 1/11th philosophy. He's being used to take away the middle of the field in the Bills 2 deep safety pass coverage. 

 

Here is a good video I found: https://youtu.be/Fb4Di9rH5Q0

 

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Trenton Simpson, probably a late first rounder. Great size at 6-3 and 240. Much faster than Tremaine at 4.39 and could solve your first and third points. And did I mention it won't cost 14-18M.  And I agree you're going to see a gradual shift back to more emphasis on run attacks by nfl teams. 

Thanks.   Obviously, there are a lot of characteristics to consider in whom to draft, but on straight physical attributes, that's the kind of guy you want.  Not to argue, but just to discuss the point.

 

1.  Unless you're going to list three or four or five late-first-round guys, it's a real crapshoot to let Edmunds walk and then hope Simpson will fall.  What do you do if he's gone when you pick at 30?   Last year, the Bills wanted a corner, and there were several on the board when the first round started, but there was only one left whom the Bills really wanted when they picked.  Trading up to make sure you get him gets expensive.   Remember, in personnel, there are two kinds of capital - cash and draft picks.  Trading picks is just as costly in terms of capital spent as spending actual dollars.    Again, I'm not arguing, just thinking about the merits of a strategy where the Bills expect to replace Edmunds with a first-round pick (or early second round).  

 

2. As for the $14-$18 million, I think one of us is correct and one isn't as to how important that position is.   Quarterback is important enough a position that the Bills will spend a lot of both kinds of capital to get and keep the right one - they'll trade players and picks to move up and they'll write $40-$50 million annual checks.  I talk often about how teams spend draft capital only on certain positions.   First round picks go disproportionately to guys at the most important positions, and the lesser positions get drafted in the first round less often.   The Bills burned a lot of draft capital on Edmunds, trading up in the first round to get him.  That suggests to me that they got him to play an important position in their scheme, and they thought he was able to do it.  The fact that he started from day one suggests that he is exactly what they were looking for.  The ONLY evidence that they might want to replace him is that he hasn't been extended yet (and that could have more to do with cap management than how important he is to the scheme).  Yes, they drafted Bernard, but a crapshoot in the third round doesn't look to me like dissatisfaction with Edmunds; it was more like a shot in the dark to see if they could find a cheaper replacement.   Bottom line, I think that the real question is how important that position is to the scheme the Bills want to play. 

 

Let me suggest one thing to think about when considering how important Edmunds is to the scheme:  Who among us thought that Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford could take over primary pass coverage duties without skipping a beat when White went down?   Not me, that's for sure.  And yet, here we are.  Would the outcome against KC last January been different with White in the lineup?  Maybe.  But, putting that game aside, the Bills defend wideouts just fine without White on the field.   Then the Bills lost Hyde; still, not much of a problem.  So, maybe in this defense the shut-down corner isn't the key man.  Maybe the middle linebacker is.   And if the middle linebacker is the lynchpin, then paying him $14-$18 million is cheap.   I mean, if Edmunds is the star of the defense, whether we can see it or not, not paying to keep him is like not paying Allen to keep him.   

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, damj said:

I've been very anti Edmunds, but I've cooled on him. With his size and athleticism, I expect to see him running around and making plays everywhere, which obviously he doesn't. I still think his reactions and angles are bad at times. I've stopping bashing him. The defense is very much a team concept with the 1/11th philosophy. He's being used to take away the middle of the field in the Bills 2 deep safety pass coverage. 

 

Here is a good video I found: https://youtu.be/Fb4Di9rH5Q0

 

 

Hey, thanks for the link.  That's excellent, and it explains what I've been seeing.   Essentially, he concludes by saying that with defenses going back to two-deep concepts, offenses can win maybe by running, or by having a really good QB, and that's what we're seeing.   Allen and Mahomes (and Dak on Sunday) can keep winning, but even Rodgers and Brady can't dominate these defenses.   

 

The video doesn't talk a lot about the middle linebacker, but if you watch Edmunds on those plays, he isn't attacking the line of scrimmage.   You can see that his job isn't to make tackles at the line of scrimmage - it's to make tackles on running backs who get past the line.  The video does explain Edmunds job in some defenses, and it's clear that his brains and recognition, together with his speed and length, is necessary to create problems over the middle for QBs.  

 

Interesting video.  Thanks.  

 

Edit:  And, stupid me, now I see that this video explains what I said above about maybe White isn't so important.  The video says that what happened in the league around 2010 is that pretty much everyone switched to playing one high safety, and that was the dominant defense for the next decade.  Well, with one-high, you really can use a shut-down corner, because one high forces you to leave someone on an island.   That's why through the Patriots' glory years they always wrote big checks for a shut-down corner.  When you switch to two-high, your need for a shut-down corner declines; you can tell a guy like Dane Jackson that if he does his job correctly, he doesn't have to be overly concerned about getting beat deep.  And if you have two guys like Milano and Edmunds roaming the middle of the field, you also can reduce the amount of real estate he's responsible for.  

 

All of that means that you need to be able to get pressure on the QB with four guys, which is exactly what McBeane have been saying for years.   And that is exactly why we've seen the investment in the D line over the past three seasons.  

 

All of which says that Edmunds' job is very important.  The question is whether he's one of five guys or one of fifty who can do it. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Shaw66

[Eastport bills]

Edmunds is going nowhere. He is the perfect compliment to Milano. They make the same tackles that you get out of a 4/3 and allows a young , inexperienced secondary to be in the nickel most snaps. They’re super fast and tackle nastily. They need to be in more blitz packages to make really impactful plays and get turnovers. The versatility of Edmunds, being able to cover backs and TEs is under appreciated.

[damj]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The video doesn't talk a lot about the middle linebacker, but if you watch Edmunds on those plays, he isn't attacking the line of scrimmage.   You can see that his job isn't to make tackles at the line of scrimmage - it's to make tackles on running backs who get past the line.  The video does explain Edmunds job in some defenses, and it's clear that his brains and recognition, together with his speed and length, is necessary to create problems over the middle for QBs.  

 

No, it doesn't talk about middle linebackers, but with Edmunds size it's hard to throw over him into the deep middle of the field and he has the speed athleticism to cover the shallow middle.

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, damj said:

No, it doesn't talk about middle linebackers, but with Edmunds size it's hard to throw over him into the deep middle of the field and he has the speed athleticism to cover the shallow middle.

Agree.   I used to be good enough at math and physics to figure out how much extra downfield coverage you get when the guy in the middle of the zone has an extra eight or ten inches of reach, based on height and wingspan.  It take a while for me to figure it out now, but I'd guess that a 6'2" guy would have to take a three- or four-yard deeper drop to cover the same territory.  That means that lining up in the same position as normal linebackers, Edmunds is able to protect 100 square yards more than a normal linebacker.   That's significant.  

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

Edmunds is going nowhere. He is the perfect compliment to Milano. They make the same tackles that you get out of a 4/3 and allows a young , inexperienced secondary to be in the nickel most snaps. They’re super fast and tackle nastily. They need to be in more blitz packages to make really impactful plays and get turnovers. The versatility of Edmunds, being able to cover backs and TEs is under appreciated.

It all depends on his contract demands. You can’t have a meaningful discussion about whether or not Edmunds will be here without discussing his contract value. His demands obviously have not lined up with the value the Bills put on him. I think another team will pay him more and it’ll be up to him whether he stays for less or goes somewhere else for the last nickel. Since it’s gotten to this point I suspect the latter. 

[Nextmanup]

10 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

 

Even if he turned out just as good as Edmunds, people will still complain for the same reasons. Anyone drafted to replace Edmunds will be asked to do the same things that Edmunds does, which by nature don't stand out to the casual fan. They won't need to pay as much, but they'll need to deal with a rookie learning curve and potentially a bust.

If you read that profile, it says he struggles against the run. He's pretty much an Edmunds clone, except a little shorter and a little faster. No idea what kind of intangibles he has or if he's a "process guy."

Yeah, but the guy who plugs in and does the same thing with a new name won't be asking for tons of money.

 

He won't be back!

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 hours ago, benderbender said:

The worst indictment of that argument is that Milano is considered undersized and yet his contributions are never in doubt. 

Well, the contributions of all of the guys around him are never in doubt.   White, Jacks, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Hyde, Poyer, Hamlin.  Isn't interesting the oversized, hyper-speedy man in the middle who has started since day one of his rookie season is the only one in the defensive backfield whose contributions are questioned?   You seem to think that's an accident, or that the Bills have players all around covering for his weaknesses or something.  Do you really think McBeane would have started him for five years if that were the case?  

 

The Bills are the ultimate team-oriented defense.  Everyone is working to make the other guys better.  Edmunds is in the middle because he makes a lot of guys better. 

[Dopey]

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/11/3/23437862/bills-packers-game-analysis-tremaine-edmunds-all-22

 

And this is his worst game this year. I watched the game 2 more times. Milano wasn’t much better than Edmunds this game. Milano made mistakes too. Some here just wait for a perceived mistake by Edmunds and pounce. 
To the “he makes tackles 5yds downfield “ crowd, take a look at where he lines up most plays. Yep, 5-6 yds downfield.  
I have said it before and I’ll say it again, you guys are complaining about how he’s used more than how he plays   He’s doing exactly what the coaching staff wants him to do. 

[BullBuchanan]

21 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

I gotta say I’m not the biggest Edmunds fan, but his strengths are perfect matchups for the Chiefs and the Ravens. I really think we need to keep him. 
 

yeah he doesn’t make the splashy plays, but he covers up lanes and can keep a QB from making a back breaking play or a RB coming out or the backfield from ripping off a big gain

Is it Kelce's 6 TDs and 475 yards across 5 games against us during Edmunds' time here or is it something else that leads you to this opinion?
 

[BullBuchanan]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, the contributions of all of the guys around him are never in doubt.   White, Jacks, Elam, Benford, Johnson, Hyde, Poyer, Hamlin.  Isn't interesting the oversized, hyper-speedy man in the middle who has started since day one of his rookie season is the only one in the defensive backfield whose contributions are questioned?   You seem to think that's an accident, or that the Bills have players all around covering for his weaknesses or something.  Do you really think McBeane would have started him for five years if that were the case?  

 

The Bills are the ultimate team-oriented defense.  Everyone is working to make the other guys better.  Edmunds is in the middle because he makes a lot of guys better. 

No it's not an accident that he is slow to read plays, has poor instincts, couldn't shed a block if there was a billion dollars behind the blocker, is a soft tackler, and despite the athleticism to keep up with WRs is terrible in pass coverage.

Everything that makes Edmunds great are the tools he was born with. Everything that makes him terrible is what he has done with them. If you combine those two things together, you get a middle of the road talent whose raw athleticism bails him out enough to make up for below average ability in most other facets of his game.

I'm pretty convinced that if he were 4-5" shorter, he would be a significantly more impactful player with otherwise no increase in skill simply because he has no idea how to use his body to gain leverage during contact. He's like the Tyler Myers of the NFL.

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by BullBuchanan

[FilthyBeast]

Based on some of the projections floating around social media, looks like Edmunds is going to command somewhere between $20 -$25 million a year minimum in free agency.

 

In other words, enjoy him while it last because there's no way Beane is ponying up that type of cash for him, nor should he to keep this team in SB contention in the foreseeable future.

[Dopey]

43 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Is it Kelce's 6 TDs and 475 yards across 5 games against us during Edmunds' time here or is it something else that leads you to this opinion?
 

That’s not all on Edmunds. You know better. We gave up 20 points to KC last game. Only the colts gave up less this year to KC. By the way, wasn’t it Milano that gave up the game winning td to Kelce in the playoffs last year? I’m assuming that’s one of the 6 TDs you’re  referencing . Cuz that’s not on Edmunds. The excuses were “it’s Kelce, he does that to everyone “. What a ridiculous way to try and blame Edmunds, and Edmunds only for that BS stat.