Allen’s QBR last night was 83.6

[78thealltimegreat]

56 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You can't criticize their lord and savior Josh Allen. He's of course infallible. He walks on water and his tears cure diseases. I often find myself taking the unpopular position but someone has to bring some common sense and balance to this forum 🫡

You wanted Josh Rosen 

[K D]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You wanted Josh Rosen 

Josh Allen's chances were 1 in a million. I'm not mad that he is an anomaly but let's not act like he is infallible 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

Holy crap nothing like TBD to over dissect a 10 point win to death.

 

The expectations being placed on Josh are unrealistic. No QB plays perfect every down of every game. Some of you need to be on anti-anxiety meds. Yeah he didn’t have a good second half. So what. It happens to every single QB. Stop blowing it out of proportion and making it something its not.

 

I don’t care about the stats, I don’t care about the MVP talk, I care about W’s. We won. Every game isn’t going to be a 40 point beat down.

 

You can’t extrapolate what happened in this game to what might happen against any other team. We weren’t playing the Chiefs. We weren’t playing the Eagles. We were playing a clearly inferior opponent and the game was never in doubt after the 2 score lead. What if’s don’t matter.

 

Enjoy the W. We are on to Cincinnati (Jets)

When I critique a Bills victory, I feel like I’ve morphed into a jaded Pats fan.   But it’s impossible for me not to notice the difference between the first half and second yesterday.

 

I have to remind myself we won by double digits!

 

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by hondo in seattle

[Donuts and Doritos]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Equal to your IQ?  QBR of 100 is maybe a B-?

Easy to get against poor competition and no silly chances.

 

I'm flattered. No one has ever accused me of having an IQ higher than D-

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

40 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Josh Allen's chances were 1 in a million. I'm not mad that he is an anomaly but let's not act like he is infallible 

 

Based on what exactly?  Please tell me how you draft someone with the #7 overall pick who has a 1:1 mil success probability.  

[Ralonzo]

3 hours ago, henry jones said:

The one to Kumerow stands out (even though it wouldn't have counted anyway) 

 

I disagree. Because it was a crap throw and incomplete, the penalty was declined and the down counted. Otherwise they have to take the penalty and the Offense gets another crack at it. It's not like it didn't matter.

[TheBrownBear]

The picks were head scratchers for sure, but we know he was trying to throw that one away and the other he got greedy trying to make a play.  The more concerning moments were the overthrows to Diggs and Kumerow.  Those were 2018 oof-worthy throws.

[K D]

15 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Based on what exactly?  Please tell me how you draft someone with the #7 overall pick who has a 1:1 mil success probability.  

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

[LabattBlue]

As long as the Bills win, most fans won’t care, and Josh’s play has been great this season, but put up a stinker like the 2nd half in a game they lose, and the attitude of the fans will be different. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by LabattBlue

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

Those statistics are meaningless in predicting whether or not any individual becomes a successful NFL QB.

[Buffalo716]

29 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

Analytics Can never replace the eye test

 

Most scouts really liked Josh Allen hence he was at the top of Boards

 

It was the armchair GM’s an analytic people who didn’t… Old school football scouts loved Josh Allen 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Yes the expectation has become that Allen will play perfect every week and that's not a sustainable model for success.

 

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Good 1st half, terrible 2nd half. We won't win if he has a full game like that 2nd half. Luckily we were already up big at that point. Josh is the entire offense. If he has a bad game then we won't win, simple as that. He had a bad 2nd half and we only had 3 points as a team as a result 

 

Which is exactly why I want to see Dorsey expand the offense.  Yesterday was going perfectly to balance more running and he had

success, but then went away from it.  I'm hoping McDermott mentions this and we see some changes in the Jets game.

[K D]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Those statistics are meaningless in predicting whether or not any individual becomes a successful NFL QB.

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Every single analytic in the history of football. It's never happened before:

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons

 

In other words, you can't explain your 1:1 mil probability.   By your hypothesis, he shouldn't have even been drafted - I mean the odds!

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

 

I do not believe math is meaningless, nor do I believe group statistics are meaningless. I didn't say either of those things.

 

I said that group statistics are meaningless in the manner you are trying to use them. In other words, group statistics have no predictive ability at an individual level. I can assure you that anyone who engages in statistical analyses for a living understands that.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

You think math is meaningless? Teams have entire analytics depts that they pay millions for so you would probably be the only person that shares that opinion 

The analytic departments decide if it’s a good idea to go for it on fourth and one at the 35

 

The analytics department has nothing to do with drafting… And again real scouts loved Josh Allen

 

There were question marks , But the pure talent was undeniable and had him at the top of boards 

[BigAl2526]

The Green Bay CBs are very good.  It was a battle between Buffalo's receivers and Green Bay's secondary.  Sometimes Green Bay won and sometimes Buffalo did. They also sold out to stop the pass, which led to a lot of success running the ball.  I am spoiled like most Bills fans.  I want to see them dominate, and I think they can do some things to counter a defensive effort like that in the future, but the other team does have an effect on what the Bills are able to do sometimes.

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

The picks were head scratchers for sure, but we know he was trying to throw that one away and the other he got greedy trying to make a play.  The more concerning moments were the overthrows to Diggs and Kumerow.  Those were 2018 oof-worthy throws.

What I don't understand is how can your qbr be 83 with a 75 rating. Mathematically it makes no sense.  He had no rushing tds and his completion % was bad??  Which stat is more viable for mvp voting?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What I don't understand is how can your qbr be 83 with a 75 rating. Mathematically it makes no sense.  He had no rushing tds and his completion % was bad??  Which stat is more viable for mvp voting?

 

We don't know the specifics of QBR. But we know that it factors in things like score and down and distance when passes or plays by the QB are made. Throwing 2 ints when you are up big in a three score game in the second half are not weighted the same as if those two INTs came in the first half with the game tied. Logically that makes some sense. Allen threw two inconsequential INT's. The grey area is how much less do you actually weigh them as compared to throwing picks in a one score game.

 

Early in the first half on the Bills first scoring drive i believe, Allen had two plays that most QB's wouldn't/couldn't make. The long run on 3rd down to set up the TD and the actual TD pass to Knox. Both those plays were likely graded very high. 

 

Just my two cents. 

 

I do agree the 83 QBR doesn't really pass the eye test. It's like when Allen gets a 56 QBR in game where he has 3 TD's and 0 INTs and a passer rating over 105. 

 

But the bottom line is both QBR and passer rating by themselves can often be misleading. But still I tend to find QBR more times than not matches what my eyes see vs. the standard passer rating metric.