The Ringer article on the continued ascendency of the mobile NFL Quarterback

[Sierra Foothills]

First of all, if you like good writing, good journalism, and a modern perspective on analytics... but don't like paying for it you should bookmark and regularly visit The Ringer. This is Bill Simmons' newest sports and pop culture website and the successor to the now-defunct "Grantland." As I said, it's free.

 

https://www.theringer.com

 

Today's edition had an excellent article that specifically addressed the Indy/Matt Ryan situation but more broadly addressed the continued ascendency of the mobile NFL quarterback.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/10/25/23422203/indianapolis-colts-sam-ehlinger-matt-ryan-scrambling

 

The Simple Math Behind the Colts’ Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger:

Benching Matt Ryan isn’t about trying to find a better passer—it’s about trying to find a better runner. Indianapolis looks poised to show us the true value of a quarterback who can escape pressure and scramble.

 

"This is related to, but not completely the same as, the league’s move toward mobile quarterbacks in the past decade. After spending the 2000s chasing cerebral, statuesque quarterbacks in the Peyton Manning–Tom Brady mold, the NFL started to find competitive edges with dual-threat quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, and expanded on those edges with Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and others. In 2022, it’s known that the league’s elite quarterbacks—Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen—can beat you with their arms, no problem. But if you somehow manage to quiet them in the air, they’ll just beat you with their legs instead." .

 

"Consider a quarterback with little to no scramble ability at all. Quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, and Matt Ryan. When they are pressured, they are almost certainly not going to try to break the pocket. Instead, they’ll throw the ball away or take a sack—or attempt a pass, but one that is far more likely to be inaccurate. No matter what, it’s a win for the defense, and we can see it in the performance of these stationary passers. With pressure, Brady falls from 17th in EPA per dropback to 31st; Garoppolo from third to 32nd. (Houston QB Davis Mills weirdly goes from 33rd in EPA per dropback without pressure to 12th with pressure. Don’t ask me what’s going on there. I have no idea.) But most importantly for our conversation today: Matt Ryan falls from 11th to 33rd."

 

There's some additional discussion of case studies like Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones and then some analytics thrown in for good measure.

 

It's a pretty good read.

[smward8]

They should add Drew Bledsoe to the immobile QB list

[Coffeesforclosers]

Back in the day, teams got a lot more practice time in the off-season. Successive CBAs have chopped back the number of practices and the number of padded practices.

 

There arent many workforces that get better with less training and less experience. 

 

I think Olines and QBs should get an extended training camp. Like pitchers and catchers. That should help. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Coffeesforclosers

[DrW]

Having watched every Longhorn game in the last five years (my son was playing tuba in their marching band), I was always convinced that Sam Ehlinger would make a borderline starter-quality NFL quarterback (clearly better than his 6th round pick indicates). His arm strength and accuracy are nothing special, but he is smart and good on his feet. Most importantly, he seems to have the drive to succeed. His life so far was not without set-backs. In 2013, his father died while running an ironman marathon, and in 2021 his brother due to a drug overdose.

[BullBuchanan]

Living in Austin, i was surprised he didn't go a little higher during the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if he found some Gardner Minshew esque lightning in a bottle this year. He's looked exciting at times in pre-season.

[msw2112]

I watched a few Texas games when Ehlinger was the QB there.  He's got a lot of moxie and is an excellent football player.  He's a scrapper.  He'll work hard and know the playbook.  He's athletic and mobile and seems to be a tough runner.  He lacks elite NFL QB arm talent, but can compensate with his other strenghts.  I think he's good enough to play competent football and win some games, but lacks the talent for him or his team to be elite.  With a great defense and running game, I could seem him being a decent starting QB and maybe getting to the playoffs, but probably not good enough to get to a Super Bowl.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, DrW said:

Having watched every Longhorn game in the last five years (my son was playing tuba in their marching band), I was always convinced that Sam Ehlinger would make a borderline starter-quality NFL quarterback (clearly better than his 6th round pick indicates). His arm strength and accuracy are nothing special, but he is smart and good on his feet. Most importantly, he seems to have the drive to succeed. His life so far was not without set-backs. In 2013, his father died while running an ironman marathon, and in 2021 his brother due to a drug overdose.

 

My friend is a Colts fan and he said a lot of people thought Ehlinger just beat out Ryan in camp for the starting job to begin with.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Big Turk

[HappyDays]

As long as there is this big of a talent gap between DL and OL throughout the league, mobile QBs will be the standard. It's almost impossible to have 5 above average OL at the same time, and if you do you're only one injury or free agency period away from having an average unit. The Colts and Rams went from having an excellent OL to a below average OL in a single offseason, and their statue QBs predictably are unable to perform.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

First of all, if you like good writing, good journalism, and a modern perspective on analytics... but don't like paying for it you should bookmark and regularly visit The Ringer. This is Bill Simmons' newest sports and pop culture website and the successor to the now-defunct "Grantland." As I said, it's free.

 

https://www.theringer.com

 

Today's edition had an excellent article that specifically addressed the Indy/Matt Ryan situation but more broadly addressed the continued ascendency of the mobile NFL quarterback.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/10/25/23422203/indianapolis-colts-sam-ehlinger-matt-ryan-scrambling

 

The Simple Math Behind the Colts’ Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger:

Benching Matt Ryan isn’t about trying to find a better passer—it’s about trying to find a better runner. Indianapolis looks poised to show us the true value of a quarterback who can escape pressure and scramble.

 

"This is related to, but not completely the same as, the league’s move toward mobile quarterbacks in the past decade. After spending the 2000s chasing cerebral, statuesque quarterbacks in the Peyton Manning–Tom Brady mold, the NFL started to find competitive edges with dual-threat quarterbacks such as Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, and expanded on those edges with Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and others. In 2022, it’s known that the league’s elite quarterbacks—Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen—can beat you with their arms, no problem. But if you somehow manage to quiet them in the air, they’ll just beat you with their legs instead." .

 

"Consider a quarterback with little to no scramble ability at all. Quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davis Mills, and Matt Ryan. When they are pressured, they are almost certainly not going to try to break the pocket. Instead, they’ll throw the ball away or take a sack—or attempt a pass, but one that is far more likely to be inaccurate. No matter what, it’s a win for the defense, and we can see it in the performance of these stationary passers. With pressure, Brady falls from 17th in EPA per dropback to 31st; Garoppolo from third to 32nd. (Houston QB Davis Mills weirdly goes from 33rd in EPA per dropback without pressure to 12th with pressure. Don’t ask me what’s going on there. I have no idea.) But most importantly for our conversation today: Matt Ryan falls from 11th to 33rd."

 

There's some additional discussion of case studies like Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones and then some analytics thrown in for good measure.

 

It's a pretty good read.

 

References this tweet by PFF'er Timo Riske (but it's actual data, not interpretation by dudes in India)

Interesting insights on what each QB is most likely to do under various situations

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, smward8 said:

They should add Drew Bledsoe to the immobile QB list

 

I wonder who would win in a footrace between Brady and Bledsoe.

 

4 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

Back in the day, teams got a lot more practice time in the off-season. Successive CBAs have chopped back the number of practices and the number of padded practices.

 

There arent many workforces that get better with less training and less experience. 

 

I think Olines and QBs should get an extended training camp. Like pitchers and catchers. That should help. 

 

Super interesting idea and one I've not heard before.

 

Interesting also that both Brady and Aaron Rodgers have come under considerable criticism for skipping OTAs (Rodgers also skipped mandatory mini camp last year). Rodgers has made passive agressive remarks that the team should "simplify the offense" and that players who blow assignments should be benched. He totally abdicates his responsibilities to the team's corps of very young receivers. What a great leader of men. This is exactly the sort of behavior you will never see from Josh Allen. Brady has missed tons of OTAs and training camp due to his off-field dramas. It's hard to imagine that the piss-poor offenses of these teams aren't connected to their QBs poor attendance.

 

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

References this tweet by PFF'er Timo Riske (but it's actual data, not interpretation by dudes in India)

Interesting insights on what each QB is most likely to do under various situations

 

Yes the bar graphs are super interesting. Previous to last night's MNF game Justin Fields ended up scrambling on almost 20% of his pass plays. Daniel Jones of the 6-1 Giants was second at over 12%, Jalen Hurts was at 11% and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were tied at 8% and Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray were tied at 5% of pass plays resulting in scrambles.

 

This means the most effective QBs in the NFL this year (excepting Justin Fields) are those who end up scrambling on pass plays the most.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Sierra Foothills

[timekills17]

9 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

Back in the day, teams got a lot more practice time in the off-season. Successive CBAs have chopped back the number of practices and the number of padded practices.

 

There arent many workforces that get better with less training and less experience. 

 

I think Olines and QBs should get an extended training camp. Like pitchers and catchers. That should help. 

 

I might go so far as to say the CBA could include some verbiage connecting salary to allowed practice time.

That might help temper some of the salary inflation. If you want to be paid top 10%, be prepared to commit extra mandatory time practicing with the team to earn it.

[Simon Says]

Tasker made a good point about mobile QBs on TV Monday. Pointed out how most of the top teams had mobile QBs.

[US Egg]

Is there a chart to show a QB’s ability to extend plays positively?

 

Mahomes and Allen are elite at doing so, with their feet and arm.

Edited October 26, 2022 by I am the egg man

[colin]

the more i see of this trend, the more i think that kordel stewart was born way too early.

 

he'd be a monster in the modern nfl.  as it was, he was sort of breaking rules and his o gave him zero accommodation for his skills.

 

interesting read. 

[TheFunPolice]

IMO the "shell" defenses are really limiting the immobile QBs because there is almost zero chance of an explosive play unless someone totally blows a coverage or misses a tackle on a screen pass or something. 

 

A mobile QB can always take off and burn you for 10-20 yards AND they could also go over the top if you blow a coverage. An immobile guy just has to check it down to RBs or WR screens because he isn't going to run. 

[PromoTheRobot]

I'd rather be a team with a Justin Fields than a Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe. The Bears need to inquire if Jordan Palmer can take on another student.

[Ray Stonada]

A great passer who can run makes an offense basically unstoppable. It's an underrated part of Mahomes' game, and it's obviously Allen's.

 

Maybe the earliest example of how dominant it can be was Steve Young. All due respect to Montana, who was more clutch, but the Niners' offense was even better with Young. The year they beat the Broncos 55-10 in the Super Bowl was like a premonition of the Allen/Mahomes style.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, colin said:

the more i see of this trend, the more i think that kordel stewart was born way too early.

 

he'd be a monster in the modern nfl.  as it was, he was sort of breaking rules and his o gave him zero accommodation for his skills.

 

interesting read. 

 

Good point. Randall Cunningham too and maybe guys like Steve Grogan (12 rushing TDs in 1976), David Woodley and Bobby Douglass who played at 6'4" 225 pounds and ran for 968 yards in 14 games as the Chicago Bears starting quarterback in 1972.

 

1 hour ago, TheFunPolice said:

IMO the "shell" defenses are really limiting the immobile QBs because there is almost zero chance of an explosive play unless someone totally blows a coverage or misses a tackle on a screen pass or something. 

 

A mobile QB can always take off and burn you for 10-20 yards AND they could also go over the top if you blow a coverage. An immobile guy just has to check it down to RBs or WR screens because he isn't going to run. 

 

Very true. For these guys it is important to have an effective running game in order to setup the play action throws.

 

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I'd rather be a team with a Justin Fields than a Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe. The Bears need to inquire if Jordan Palmer can take on another student.

 

And this is the thought process which caused the Niners to invest heavily to move up and draft Trey Lance... they were essentially trying to replicate what the Bills did to get Josh Allen.

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Sierra Foothills

[RoyBatty is alive]

One of the most immobile QB is Tom Brady and behold the Buccaneers are at the top by a meaningful amount at 91%throwing to the target,  Doesn't take too many sacks or batted passes and few scrambles.

[TheFunPolice]

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

One of the most immobile QB is Tom Brady and behold the Buccaneers are at the top by a meaningful amount at 91%throwing to the target,  Doesn't take too many sacks or batted passes and few scrambles.

 

check downs...

 

Tampa has ZERO running game and almost every one of their offensive yards is Brady throwing short passes. Brady got his yards even last week in a 21-3 loss, but no TDs