What We Learned Week 7

[corta765]

NFL: We are nearing the halfway point of the season and this season has felt weird if not down in terms of total team play. Currently the Jets are 5-2, the Seahawks are 4-3 and lead the NFC West, the Bucs and Falcons are tied at an impressive 3-4 record for the NFC South lead, Russell Wilson has been the Hindenburg in Bronco Country (Lets Ride!), and the Lions are tied for last in the NFL (Ok that is normal). But besides bad play on Thursday Night and some early weird results something else is actually true: offenses are producing in a much lower level then we have seen in over a decade. Per Joe Marino @thejoemarino on twitter 14 NFL teams are averaging 1 TD or less passing TDs per game. The NFL has adjusted to being a league that favors passing attacks above everything as we have seen with rule change and how the game is played. So why are things down? For starters defenses for years were getting torched as they played coverages that allowed for deep threats to blow by them. The last two years most teams have moved away from 3-4 defenses back towards 4-3 defenses with two safeties high so you can't get beat deep and can pressure the passer faster. That in turn has forced offenses to play a more patient attack that attacks in moderate chunks which favors mistakes to happen. Some of the best passers last year and years prior like Brady, Stafford, Rodgers, Wilson, & Carr all are producing at much lower levels then before as age really seems to be impacting Brady and Rodgers finally. Conversely young QBs like Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Fields have all been limited this year for various reasons and not taken the mantle to be in that elite group. Finally football like any sport is circular in nature with some teams rising and others falling. Forever people were use to the Patriots, Steelers, Saints, Packers, and Colts having dynamic passing attacks and now all of them are struggling to various degrees. Buffalo, KC, & Philly obviously are great, but there is space for a few other teams to join these offenses as part of top echelon and this may just be a year of transition for that. One final point is that the last few years have seen the retirement of QBs like Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees with Brady and Rodgers seemingly days away from joining them. The last decade and half is the finest QB play the league ever has seen and that group was the collective driver of that. I am sure Mahomes and Allen will have some other QBs reach their level or close, but like teams in transition from good to bad the QB position is also for some new faces.

 

AFC

BAL- Watching the Ravens this year you have to ask are they just finding themselves as a team or are the fourth quarter issues real? They won yesterday but they made it way harder on themselves with turnovers late. I still think they take the division but they need to really smooth out their rough areas.

BUF- The only game left on the schedule they might not be favored in is at CIN week 17 as they Bengals look better finally. The path to the one seed is wide gold brick road at this point, now or never.

CIN- The offense is rolling finally as Chase is on fire right now and the defense is doing its job. They are at CLE on Monday night but then have Carolina and Pittsburgh next, stack some wins and create space boys.

CLE- The NFL screwed them a timeout by running 2 seconds off the clock to get to the 2 minute warning after the missed FG at Baltimore. The offense again was productive and the defense while better still had its issues. They are not a bad team, but the rope for mistakes is pretty short if they want to survive and be in the playoff race when Watson returns.

DEN- No way Hackett makes it to year 2. Even with Wilson out (which wasn't much of a loss) the offense looks managed and misguided. I get they brought Hackett in to try and lure Rodgers, but its has been to the detriment of the team and a defense that is top 5 in the league.

HOU- The Texans are expected to move Bradin Cooks at the deadline as the productive WR has value. It makes sense, but it will take away from the future offensive corp and they will need to find some new WRs in FA23 and the draft to help their new QB.

IND- With an opportunity to take the division back the offense faltered as Jonathan Taylor had just 58 yards rushing and Matt Ryan threw 2 INTs and only 243 yds on 44 attempts. IND is supposed to have Ryan in 2023 as the starting QB, but it is very hard to see how as he is dragging the rest of the roster down.

JAX- Tough tough loss at home as the Jags have lost three in a row all by a TD in each. Travis Etienne averaged 8.1 a carry Sunday and can help take some pressure of Trevor who while playing better still has taken some hits this season.

KC-  The 49ers thought they had Mahomes and crew contained after the 1st half. Then KC figured out they could rip the 49ers over the top and that was that. Also JuJu is heating up with a 7 catch 124 yd 1 TD day a week after a good showing against the Bills.

LAC- Cursed or underperforming or bad coaching or all of it, the Chargers got stomped at home against Seattle. Just is Herbert a great talent and good QB, but people need to slow down on putting him in the Allen/Mahomes category.

MIA- Tua looked rusty, the coaching staff made some really bad calls, and the Dolphins lucked to a win against PIT. Tua will have some better days again this season and they are a playoff team, but they have some real holes on offensive line and up front on D that will hold them back. Also teams are finding their adjustments for the Phins passing attack.

NE- The Chicago game should be a win and if they want to maintain playoff pace in the AFC the Pats cannot afford a let down. Mac Jones better be ready because a bad night will open the floodgates for Zappe.

NYJ- 5-2 is a huge improvement for the airplane people, but Bryce Hall is a killer just as he got going. That injury puts even more pressure on Zach Wilson who has just 1 TD pass in four games and has not been asked to do much until now.

PIT- Pickett wasn't awful against MIA but his final INT was a rookie mistake that ruined a good effort by the defense. He had 20 yards in front of him to run and get a new set of downs. Going for the TD every time bites every young passer, we shall see if he can mature and shake that a bit.

Raiders-  The Raiders are 2-4 now with the offense finally on pace scoring 30ppg in the last three. With the Saints, Jags, Colts, and Broncos up next they might be able to crawl back to life if the offense maintains this pace.

TEN- The Titans are the kings of the AFC South right now despite a -13 pt differential. But take out the Buffalo disaster and they actually are + 21 for the season. They have Houston this week and then KC on SNF the first Sunday of November. You have to think they want to make a statement then that they belong in the top teams discussion

 

NFC

ATL- The plus side is with Tampa losing they are tied for the division crown right now, the bad is they got exposed for lack of talent on a defense bottom 5 in points allowed and potentially out three starters Sunday against Carolina. Ex Bill Dean Marlowe might be getting the start at safety Sunday.

ARZ- They won thanks to Andy Dalton's pick 6, but allowed over 400 yards on defense and the offense doesn't look right. I really wonder if Kingsburry makes it past this year if they miss the playoffs as soo much is invested in Kyler and he has not been very good.

CAR- Carolina walked away with a boat load of draft capital for a RB who will break down in a year or two again. Early pain now will result in pouring a strong foundation in the 23 Draft and finally grabbing a franchise QB after years of missing at that.

CHI- The Patriots a nightmare for young QBs and BB always has a strong gameplan for them. Maybe America will luck out and the Bears actually score two touchdowns or more this week, poor Justin Fields.

DAL- Dak had some rust but they figured it out and the Cowboys sit comfortably at 5-2 for the playoffs. The Cowboys ran for 139 yards and 2 TDs which should help to let Dak find his way back in the next few weeks, although Pollard needs to be the lead back as Zeke is averaging 3.8 ypc vs Pollards 6.9.

DET- This week had to have been maddening for Lions faithful as the defense held Dallas to 24 points and it was 10-6 heading into the fourth. But four turnovers on offense will kill most teams and the offense failed to crack 300 yards for the day.

GB- I mean what is left to be said Rodgers looks broke, the offense looks broke, and they can't finish games anymore. More importantly Rodgers depth per pass has went from 9 yards in 2020, 7.88 yards in 2021, now to 5.88 in 2022. Time is never kind and the lack of talent at WR and the O-line being wrecked by injuries' only highlight Rodgers struggles further.

LAR- A week off allows McVay to fix and restructure an offense that is hurt by injuries and in general looking out of snych. Les Snead didn't have the ammo for McCaffrey and you wonder if he can even make a move this year given the lack of depth in a year the roster needs it badly.

MIN- Apparently the Vikings being off ruined TV watching yesterday. Their next two are ARZ and at WSH with an opportunity to put the division more out of reach. On the flipside Kirk Cousins slow start has him off to his worst numbers in MIN even though the Vikes are 5-1 proving even further QB wins are not a stat.

NYG- This years cinderella story won another close comeback game Sunday against the Jags to get to 6-1. Daniel Jones hasn't been sensational, but he his taken Dabolls coaching well and is not turning the ball over with just 2 INT's in 7 games and no fumbles lost. Safe but smart passing mixed with a dynamite running attack will do things in the NFL.

NOLA- The Saints are averaging the third most yards on offense this year yet they are 2-5, what gives? Turnovers and defense. The Saints defense have allowed 200 pts leading the NFL and the offense has given the ball away 16 times good for over two a game. The Saints invested a lot into their defense and the fruits are not there. Without a 1st round pick this year and a constricting cap situation New Orleans may need a full on reset if they truly want to get out of this faster.

PHI- With the Eagles off the Philly faithful saw the Phillies make it to the World Series. Fun fact in 1980 both the Eagles and Phillies made their respective titles games as the Phillies took home the crown while the Eagles were upset by the wildcard Raiders. Does it happen again in 2022?

SEA- Many were critical of what the Seahawks did in the offseason including myself, but Geno is playing well, Kenneth Walker looks like a gem at RB, and the young defense led by CB Tariq Woolen who has 4 INT and 6 PD is finding its way. Oh and Seattle has Denver's 1st round pick in 2023 which might be quite high in the draft.

SF- Not many teams can stop the Chiefs attack still for a defense that gets so much praise it was a bit of a letdown Sunday to see them shredded so hard. Additionally while McCaffrey is a game changing talent with Jimmy G at QB the teeth in this offense is only so much regardless of who is surrounding Jimmy.

TB- What was that? Just a putrid showing on offense from everyone highlighted by Mike Evans dropping the easiest 75 yard TD of his life. Still the division is crap, the offense has talent even if it is older, and Brady is smart enough to manage the offense to get back into gear but at some point this engine has to turnover too.

Edited October 24, 2022 by corta765

[Big Turk]

I think the Bills are favored in every game. Bengals are OK but not on the Bills level. However with it being a week to week league and things changing rapidly, it's possible they continue improving to the point the Bills may be a slight dog(under 3 points).

 

I just don't think they will tho. The D has been impressive as they are the only team in the NFL not to have allowed a 2nd half TD. Clearly what they did to KC in the AFCCG was not a fluke. They make some tremendous half time adjustments as do the Bills.

 

What we learned is that outside of the Bills and KC there is a METRIC TON of bad offensive football being played save for a random team sprinkled in from week to week that has a great game.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Big Turk

[US Egg]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Clearly what they did to KC in the AFCCG was not a fluke.

[Mike in Horseheads]

I'm sure that was a great manifesto by OP

[Big Turk]

Just now, Mike in Horseheads said:

I'm sure that was a great manifesto by OP

 

[Aussie Joe]

They are favoured to win  every game ( today that is and subject to future injuries and form )

 

They are not favoured to win 11 games in a row …

 

Not referring to the OP here, but some people seem to think that the favourites win every game… this ain’t college football…

[Awwufelloff]

I learned that there are only 3 good teams in NFL. Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles. 

[No_Matter_What]

Just a technical note @corta765, Seahawks are 4-3.

[FilthyBeast]

Great write up and a couple of additional thoughts:

 

- Chiefs are not going anywhere and might not lose more than 1 game the rest of the way which is why the Bills need to keep pace and their foot on the pedal every week. They are also looking like the luckiest team in the league so far with no real important injuries to their roster.

 

- Geno Smith and the Seahawks are quite the story and it goes to show that some guys are just late bloomers. They have a real shot to win that division and be a serious playoff team and looks like they fixed their problem from last year and got tons of draft picks in return for it.

 

- I posted about the Raiders having the look of one of those grimy teams that are going to get hot down the stretch and still think that's the case looking at their schedule and they have way too much talent on that roster to be held back. Don't be shocked if they crawl all the way back into the division race, let alone wildcard picture.

 

- Chargers and Herbert continue to be one of the most overrated teams/QB's in NFL history. Wonder how they feel about now passing on Daboll last year for Brandan Staley?

 

- For all the Bills and Chiefs hype, Bengals are coming on strong and will definitely be a factor as the defending AFC champions. Won't be surprised if they are the team the Bills could face in the AFCCG.

 

- Dolphins weren't necessarily pretty in Tua's first game back, but they are set up perfectly to be 8-3 heading into a tough 3 game road stretch with 49ers/chargers/Bills.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Barring some type of huge change in play by either team, if the Bills were favored in KC, they will also be favored in Cinci.

[dwight in philly]

Watching the Red Zone yesterday convinced me the Bills are the best.. and was very strange , but exhilerating after always being considered  non elite for the past 25 years or so.. and before that ,(with a brief Chuck Knox era) success .. just felt we were second tier.. loving it now.. 

[corta765]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I think the Bills are favored in every game. Bengals are OK but not on the Bills level. However with it being a week to week league and things changing rapidly, it's possible they continue improving to the point the Bills may be a slight dog(under 3 points).

 

I just don't think they will tho. The D has been impressive as they are the only team in the NFL not to have allowed a 2nd half TD. Clearly what they did to KC in the AFCCG was not a fluke. They make some tremendous half time adjustments as do the Bills.

 

What we learned is that outside of the Bills and KC there is a METRIC TON of bad offensive football being played save for a random team sprinkled in from week to week that has a great game.

 

Thing to me is lets say Bills are 13-2 heading into that game and Cincy is 11-4 (7-1 up to that point then) with the offense rolling I could see Cincy being a 1pt fav. Not really a slight as much as situational. 

[gjv]

Based on what I have seen this weekend, Miami and the Jets will be looking for a QB. Maybe not this offseason, but for sure by the next.

[US Egg]

Week 7 pondering. Seahawks. For real?

[BuffaloBillyG]

Through 7 weeks of NFL football Giants QB Danny "Dimes" has more yards rushing (343) than Najee Harris (329).

 

Josh Allen has more TD passes (17) then the Bills have punts (11)

 

Jared Goff has more passing yards than Matt Stafford, Geno Smith has more passing yards that Russ Wilson, and Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield STILL have more passing yards than Justin Fields...even though Baker and Joe haven't played in weeks.

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Thing to me is lets say Bills are 13-2 heading into that game and Cincy is 11-4 (7-1 up to that point then) with the offense rolling I could see Cincy being a 1pt fav. Not really a slight as much as situational. 

 

I don't see it.  Bills play jets and fins at home - then chicago. Before that its detroit and NE on the road.  They should be rolling in winning at least 4 of those 5.  I'd be disappointed if its not 5.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

36 minutes ago, gjv said:

Based on what I have seen this weekend, Miami and the Jets will be looking for a QB. Maybe not this offseason, but for sure by the next.

 

Yeah - i didn't see it with Wilson last year and I haven't yet this year.  I hope they win enough games to give him the keys next year, because what I've seen is a lot of bad tendencies.  

 

Tua looked great on the first drive.  Throws were in rhythm, on target - they shredded pittsburgh.  Then after that i'm not sure what Pitt did differently, but if i had to guess they got into the windows to throw him off.  They put hands in throwing lanes to force him to throw at different times etc.  After that he was probably hitting less than 50 percent of the RPOs and there were at least 4 or 5 near catastrophe interceptions where he missed, and occaisionally missed high.  I'm not sure how much is "he was off" or he was thrown off, but they got through it I guess.   

[nosejob]

54 minutes ago, gjv said:

Based on what I have seen this weekend, Miami and the Jets will be looking for a QB. Maybe not this offseason, but for sure by the next.

I think Mike White would be better than Wilson....over the longer term.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, gjv said:

Based on what I have seen this weekend, Miami and the Jets will be looking for a QB. Maybe not this offseason, but for sure by the next.

 

I wouldn't jump the gun on Tua just yet given the circumstances of his recent head injury and first game back. Their upcoming schedule is pretty favorable as well.

 

But if he is going to turn into Trent Edwards after that hit in the Cardinals game in 2008 then yes Miami certainly will have to find a new QB.

[GETTOTHE50]

wow the bengals beat the falcons, a team thats in arguably the very worst division. burrow wont be able to sling it with JA17 come week 17. the bengals wont know know what hit them when the BILLS come to town. their confidence will be shattered right before the playoffs after the Bills destroy em