How did Allen not dominate in college?

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, without a drought said:

Face it, he's just not that good

Cannon Arm. Average + legs, no accuracy= unlikely he will make it in the nfl

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

3-4 players from that team play or have played in the NFL.  You make it sound like he played for Buff State.

How many of them played offense?  And how many of them that played offense are even relevant?  I think that list would just be chase roullier but I could be forgetting someone. Josh got dumped on for his performances against the big schools and there was virtually no other nfl caliber players on offense 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Saint Doug]

I think this has to do with his cannon arm. I didn’t watch him in college, but did during his first couple years on the Bills. I think the difference between then and now is how hard he was throwing the ball. It used to do 1000 mph, no matter where the player was on the field. I now see a QB moderating the strength of his throws when needed. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I actually think Gailey was a good qb teacher and one of the dumbest things they did was not to draft a guy to learn under him and Fitz.  But agree with everything else.

 

 

Agreed on Gailey and it wasnt meant as a shot at him. More so a statement on where the entire organization was at the time.

[B-Large]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

He had accuracy issues.

 

Please don't underestimate the importance of completion percentage at all levels. 

 

It matters.  It goes with you wherever you go.

 

A permanent football scar whose shame never washes off or changes.

 

 

 

 

I don’t know much about collegiate football… 

 

but why don’t these guys who are draft position worthy, find someone to work on their mechanics in college?   Josh’s family didn’t seem poor, and given he was a dynamo in high school…

 

why did his issues persist so long?

 

Always seems weird to me. 

[Beck Water]

59 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

The shocking thing about his Wyoming stats is that he averaged only 3.2 yards per rush with hundreds of rushes. I don’t see how that’s remotely possible.

 

Allen has talked about this some.  His college coach Bohl has talked about this some.

 

1) Physical.  Allen was a late bloomer.  He grew to 6'3" 180 his Sr yr in high school.  Like a lot of athletes, growing fast can mess with coordination for a bit, and he says he couldn't run, the Baseball coach called him "Tortuga" which means "tortoise".  He grew 2 more inches in Jr College and finally put on some weight, but it wasn't until he broke his shoulder as a Freshman at Wyoming and then hit the weight room while rehabbing that he started to develop his current build.  And he didn't start working with QB trainers/movement coaches until he was prepping for the draft after his sophomore season.  He seems faster than his 4.75 at the combine because he is, now that he's grown into his frame and put his "man muscle" on

 

2) Mental.   Allen said jokingly on "Kyle Brandts basement" that he guesses he's a little bit ADD.  From stuff Bohl said, it's possible there were other reasons recruiters weren't impressed and offers weren't lining up.  Part of it is exposure to the game at a high level as a giant mental chess match.  Part of it is maturing and learning to focus.   Remember that Bills video clip from Allen's first season where he's asking Daboll "do you think I could throw it out of here?" and Daboll is like "how about we just try to get through this practice?" 

 

Then there's being perhaps a little hard-headed.  Josh told a story about he's supposed to throw to the fullback in the flat during a practice.  Josh decides to throw to the corner of the EZ instead and "it didn't go too well".  Apparently Daboll started yelling, and didn't stop for a while.  They went to the sideline and Daboll calmed down, walked away, thought about it, came back and started yelling again.  I'd be surprised if that wasn't a bit of a theme Allen's first year.  Yes, Allen can improvise and do amazing things, but that had to be brought under control and he had to learn to do the ordinary skills that move the chains and save the improv. for when it's needed.

 

 

 

[BearNorth]

1 hour ago, Bandito said:

And we can flip this topic around. How did so many players dominate in college then stink it up in the pros. Would be an interesting discussion.

EJ Manuel and Vince Young come to mind in this respect,

[msw2112]

I did not watch any of Allen's games when he was at Wyoming.  I did and do still subscribe to Sports Illustrated (maybe that shows my age) and I distinctly remember an issue with Allen being on the cover in his Wyoming uniform.  Usually you are not on the cover of SI unless you are pretty good at what you do.  Boy I wish I had kept that old issue of SI.  When Allen gets his gold jacket, that would have been worth something.  Not so much in the recycle bin.

[K-9]

In addition to sheer physical immaturity at the time, he had little to no understanding of the position, which he really didn’t begin to acquire until he hit the NFL. He didn’t attend elite QB camps since middle school like nearly every other highly ranked QB prospect. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Wasn't it Bleacher Report or The Athletic that said Allen working would fly in the face of every scouting report ever done before, or defy all analytical methods for him turning out good? 

 

It's an amazing story, immense potential fully realized (assuming Allen is close to his peak). 

 

Okay college production, remote D1 program, and injuries to now dominating the NFL. 

 

I can't think of many, because even Jalen Hurts at Alabama was replaced, but you could have seen this level of output because he was productive in college as a runner and passer and started at major D1 schools. 

 

To some degree, Dak Prescott wasn't thought of as a great college thrower, but he was a productive runner and passer in college in terms of the numbers and Mississippi State was competitive with the SEC when he was there. 

 

You have your smaller school players who have been better than anticipated: Garoppolo, Zappe.

 

Davis Mills is interesting, the scouting community (Greg Cosell) has been his advocate, he didn't have much college production at Stanford. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Bandito said:

 

Yes. How were they drafted so high, yet were flops professionally?

EJ Manuel was a combination of a weak QB class, a desperate GM, the Seminoles were a 10-win team when he was there, and he was the 6'4" prototype. 

 

Vince Young got the bump from the 2006 National Championship game, beating the stacked 2006 USC Trojans with Leinhart and Bush in a nail-biting game. 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Allen was from a small town and high school with no football pedigree.  He was discovered, almost by luck, by a junior college coach, then after a year at that school and still almost totally ignored, he went to Wyoming. At Wyoming, Allen's receivers dropped almost as many passes as they caught.   

At no time did Allen receive any indepth coaching.  Instead, all along the way, it was his physical talent that his coaches relied upon.  Tom Brady was a sought after talent (even drafted by the Montreal Expos), but at Michigan he had difficulty winning the starting QB job.  Jim Kelly left Penn State after Joe Paterno thought he was more suited to play linebacker.  Proving that even major colleges can't recognize Hall of Fame talent when it's standing, in uniform, right before them.

Allen never had any elite coaching, or attempts to alter his mechanics, until he reached the Bills.  If he had, he never would have made it to the 7th pick in the 2018 draft.  Even then, it wasn't until after his 2nd year when he had some intense coaching and analysis of his mechanics, that he blossomed.  It also shut-up many experts who had declared that accuracy was the one QB trait that was almost impossible to improve.

 

Allen is an anomaly that practically fell into the Bills laps.  He ended up in the perfect situation, with the perfect organization.  Compare the Bills to the dumpster fires in Arizona, Miami, Carolina, and Denver.  Places where they've had, or have, talent and squandered and mishandled players.  Miami has been hot and cold on Tua since they drafted him.  Carolina has both Darnold and Baker and is mishandling everything.  Arizona wasted Rosen and Murray might be happy to walk away from the team.  Would any of those organizations, had they drafted Allen, had the patience for him to develop?  

 

[billsfan1959]

40 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I said it before, I thought we were in trouble when we drafted Allen. It was a traits only pick, no player in CFB history with his stats went on to have great success at the NFL level. He was an All 2nd team MWC player (why not first, I asked?) and had dreadful numbers against every Power 5 team. 
 

When I heard part of Beane’s process was to look at Allen run a play and think “where would Rosen throw here?” Again I thought, “uh oh.” 

When I saw his play at Wyoming, I didn’t think he had the mind that could make the game look easy for him. I didn’t audibly “boo” the pick, but did shake my head - but like all draft picks, including Whitner and Maybin, I supported him and hoped for the best. And I’m glad I and the rest of those pessimistic fans were incredibly wrong. 

 

Josh Allen is one of one, the first player to greatly defy some of the analytical reports that were put out on him prior to the draft (which drove some statisticians to hate him until recently). “Is [insert name here] the next Josh Allen?” No, most likely not. 

 

He actually didn't defy any statistics. (1) The pool of comparable players is so small that any data drawn is relatively useless, (2)  Any statistics that do exist are group statistics and have pretty much no predictive utility on an individual level, and (3) There simply isn't any data encompassing all the individual variables that go into determining who will or will not become a franchis QB - or even a successful NFL QB.

 

The argument that he "defied" statistics is tantamount to saying "nobody saw this coming," both of which seem to be uttered by people who were wrong about him.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

So as a degenerate, I watched a ton of Mountain West football and I became a fan of Josh at Wyoming during his sophomore year, I never missed a game. Now, I was not someone saying grab this dude at 7, in fact, I think I was kind of mad about it because I didn't like any of the QBs in that draft as 1st round picks, so uh whoops. 

 

Anyway, Josh was incredibly inaccurate in college. Yes his WRs had some drops and the team around him wasn't very good, but the two things that jumped off the screen were his rocket arm and his struggle to control it. I'm not sure we comprehend just how unprecedented it is for someone to go from what Josh was in college to what he is now. It's a real credit to his work ethic imo.

[Scott7975]

I think because he didnt get the real attention at football camps and probably not the greatest coaching compared to other QBs.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

He actually didn't defy any statistics. (1) The pool of comparable players is so small that any data drawn is relatively useless, (2)  Any statistics that do exist are group statistics and have pretty much no predictive utility on an individual level, and (3) There simply isn't any data encompassing all the individual variables that go into determining who will or will not become a franchis QB - or even a successful NFL QB.

 

The argument that he "defied" statistics is tantamount to saying "nobody saw this coming," both of which seem to be uttered by people who were wrong about him.

 

What he's done is absolutely unprecedented. He defied statistics in every conceivable way, but statistics cannot quantify a player's work ethic. Josh is a physical freak but that pales in comparison to his desire to improve and win and I think it's why he'll age incredibly well.

[Greg S]

In that draft I remember Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield were getting all the attention. Allen and Jackson were rated below them by most of the "experts". I think the Cardinals were the only team besides the Bills looking to trade up for Allen but Beane beat them to it.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

What he's done is absolutely unprecedented. He defied statistics in every conceivable way, but statistics cannot quantify a player's work ethic. Josh is a physical freak but that pales in comparison to his desire to improve and win and I think it's why he'll age incredibly well.

 

No he did not. Please show me any statistic that indicated Josh Allen, as an individual, was not going to be a successful NFL QB. 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1 - seriously? Obviously the talent level he played with is different in Buffalo but the defensive talent level he plays against is better too. As someone who was skeptical of the pick, the idea that the guy who wasn’t that good in the MWC becoming a better player in the nfl melted my brain.

 

2 - can you think of a player that improved this much from college to the nfl? Brady seems obvious but he actually was better in college than people remember. 
 

 

 

I think he did dominate. But he played in places no one paid attention to.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

He actually didn't defy any statistics. (1) The pool of comparable players is so small that any data drawn is relatively useless, (2)  Any statistics that do exist are group statistics and have pretty much no predictive utility on an individual level, and (3) There simply isn't any data encompassing all the individual variables that go into determining who will or will not become a franchis QB - or even a successful NFL QB.

 

The argument that he "defied" statistics is tantamount to saying "nobody saw this coming," both of which seem to be uttered by people who were wrong about him.

I read three scouting reports on Allen from actual NFL teams shortly after the 2018 draft and they all suggested he was a can’t miss pro QB prospect. I suspect that was also the opinion of the majority of teams as well. 

[SirAndrew]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I think he did dominate. But he played in places no one paid attention to.

Agree, I think his only big struggles came against schools from power conferences with superior talent. People clung to those results as proof he couldn’t do it at the next, obviously not taking into consideration the entire team being overmatched.