How did Allen not dominate in college?

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

Yeah I never said any of that or even alluded to any of that. So, save your "deduction" lessons for after you learn to read and understand what you're reading. 

 

"You can't read" often means you can defend what you're claiming. Have a nice week. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Motorin'

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He got better.

exactly!

[Chaos]

It seems quite likely his college coach was not up to optimizing his skill set as it was.  

[billsfan1959]

14 minutes ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

And my entire point was that Josh Allen defied those statistics, making him a statistical outlier and a total unicorn in my opinion. But, throwing out historical data, especially as the college game and NFL game get more and more alike, is foolish and no NFL scouting department would do that. 

 

We can agree to disagree. I will leave it on these points:

 

(1) How in the world did Allen defy statistics that said absolutely nothing at all about whether or not he would be successful?

(2) NFL Departments have advanced statistical capabilities run by people who understand science, statistics, and that historical group data says nothing about an individual.

(3) Are you defying the statistics if you live into your 80s or 90s because historical group statistics say the average male dies at 72? Or does your genetic make-up, your diet, your excercise regimen, stress levels, and all those other personal variables actually say your odds of living into your 80s or 90s is quite high?

[WyoAZBillfan]

3 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

That Wyoming team was awful. The team was Josh Allen. He was under immediate pressure nearly all the time. If he played for Alabama, it would have been a different story. He was the team in Wyoming. 

This is simply not true, after his Jr year he lost his play makers and several D players. Also had some injuries. His last year your statement might hold some water. WY coach has done great things since coming to WY, he dominated the Big Sky prior to that. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, WyoAZBillfan said:

WY coach has done great things since coming to WY

 

Uh; as a Wyoming fan - that's highly debatable.  One could argue he's riding on the success of Wentz (before) and Allen.  

[billsfan1959]

12 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

As I said before, I don’t disagree about Allen’s completion percentage, or with your thoughts in general, stats can never be an absolute predictor… but they do provide historical significance.

Those who didn’t believe in Allen didn’t only use his low completion percentage, they used his paltry numbers against Power 5 teams, his limited number of 300 yard games, and his low number of total TDs. It wasn’t just one stat that said Allen isn’t likely to be successful, it was many. To that end, because no one from his background has gone on to do the things he does in the NFL, he became an outlier for those predictive stats. You can disagree with that notion, but the evidence is there. All those asking “can [insert name here] be the next Josh Allen?” Well, only if the situations are comparable (which most likely they’re not) and chances of being the next Josh Allen are incredibly small. 

 

The bolded points:

(1) Don't just say there were many stats, list them. I guarantee they have no predictive value at an individual level.

(2) Bingo! The situations and other specific variables have to be comparable. That rules out group statistics. Thank you.

 

[WyoAZBillfan]

3 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Uh; as a Wyoming fan - that's highly debatable.  One could argue he's riding on the success of Wentz (before) and Allen.  

Then as a WY fan you must not recall how well they have done since say, the 80’s. Nothing. I would argue he acquired and coached Wentz and Allen to build winning programs. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by WyoAZBillfan

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Just now, WyoAZBillfan said:

Then as a WY fan you must not recall how well they have done since day the 80’s. Nothing. I would argue he acquired and coached Wentz and Allen to build winning programs. 

 

Not the place to discuss WY football; but he's overrated. 

 

[BRH]

3 hours ago, Bandito said:

And we can flip this topic around. How did so many players dominate in college then stink it up in the pros. Would be an interesting discussion.

 

Baker Mayfield and especially Sam Darnold, to name just two.

 

When you are playing with NFL talent all around you and most of your opponents have less than that, it masks fatal flaws.

 

 

[Brand J]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The bolded points:

(1) Don't just say there were many stats, list them. I guarantee they have no predictive value at an individual level.

(2) Bingo! The situations and other specific variables have to be comparable. That rules out group statistics. Thank you.

 

Feels like you’re being contrarian for contrarians sake. I did list the categories where Allen fell short amongst his peers, but didn’t look for and post the numbers. I don’t have the energy for that but if you’re interested in finding them, they’re out there.
Last time you asked me to provide a report backed with stats that explained why he’d be an outlier if he became a franchise QB and I did, but you then proceeded to dismiss everything that was written and researched. Nothing I can do about that.
 

As far as the comparable argument, the NFL wants to find “the next Josh Allen,” but those players don’t come from comparable situations because first and foremost they almost always come from Power 5 schools. I suppose you could fault the reports for not taking Allen’s numbers and comparing him to QBs who were only outside of the Power 5, but what would that prove? Those guys don’t play in the NFL. The data for those players who fail to make it is as long as the sport has been in existence. He had to be compared to those who were being drafted, which were most likely QBs who played at Power 5 programs. And as I said before, Allen was 2nd team All Mountain West Conference, so there was another QB in that conference in similar circumstances that they felt was more deserving of first team. How did Allen’s numbers compare to that guy? 

[Airseven]

He wasn’t fully developed physically and had subpar coaching, teammates, and facilities in comparison to larger D-I schools.

[Utah John]

The only thing Allen got from the Wyoming coaches was an opportunity, which is still a lot.  But they did not teach him how to be a good passer or a good QB.  

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Uh; as a Wyoming fan - that's highly debatable.  One could argue he's riding on the success of Wentz (before) and Allen.  

 

Dude its Wyoming. I actually think your best argument is the MWC isn't as strong as it used to be. Its arguably has two of the worst teams in the country in Hawaii and Colorado State, Boise has fallen, Utah State isn't what it used to be. I think Bohl all things considered has made that a decent program that makes bowl games every year compared to what it was when I was growing up and they won 2 games every year

[97bills]

4 hours ago, Vertig0 said:

Maturity, time and resources. 

 

Cupcake classes or not, he's still in school, taking classes, etc. He can't dedicate 365, 24/7 to his craft in that environment. 

 

And then compare Wyoming's coaching and resources to that of an NFL team (especially one such as the Bills, run by McBeane, which has proven to be one of the best in the league).

 

Add in the money to pay Jordan Palmer, the pure dedication to improve and the time to do so...boom.

All that is right but the time they gave him and not changing OC every two years. I believe there’s been a few QB come through the nfl that could’ve been great, but teams gave up on them quickly and changed head coaches during their time there. The Buffalo Bills showed every NFL team how to do it right. And I’m so proud to be able to say we got the best QB in the game. During all those drought years I was wondering if I would ever see this. GO Bills 

[billsfan1959]

19 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Feels like you’re being contrarian for contrarians sake. I did list the categories where Allen fell short amongst his peers, but didn’t look for and post the numbers. I don’t have the energy for that but if you’re interested in finding them, they’re out there.
Last time you asked me to provide a report backed with stats that explained why he’d be an outlier if he became a franchise QB and I did, but you then proceeded to dismiss everything that was written and researched. Nothing I can do about that.
 

As far as the comparable argument, the NFL wants to find “the next Josh Allen,” but those players don’t come from comparable situations because first and foremost they almost always come from Power 5 schools. I suppose you could fault the reports for not taking Allen’s numbers and comparing him to QBs who were only outside of the Power 5, but what would that prove? Those guys don’t play in the NFL. The data for those players who fail to make it is as long as the sport has been in existence. He had to be compared to those who were being drafted, which were most likely QBs who played at Power 5 programs. And as I said before, Allen was 2nd team All Mountain West Conference, so there was another QB in that conference in similar circumstances that they felt was more deserving of first team. How did Allen’s numbers compare to that guy? 

 

I am not arguing just to argue. I dismissed the stats you listed because they had no predictive value at an individual level. It is that simple. I gave numerous examples to explain my position. Group statistics have their value, but not in the manner you want to use them.

 

For example, when you list a category that Allen fell below his peers, say completion %, did you find any research that broke down every variable that affects completion % for every QB being compared? Of course not, it would be an almost impossible task. So, saying he fell below his peers in completion % says nothing about why - which, ultimately, is what really matters in starting to evaluate a specific individual.  You cannot get the "why" from the statistics you cited.

 

In the end, we can just agree to disagree.

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by billsfan1959

[syhuang]

maybe he just missed losing in college? 😎

[Jackalope89]

4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

He had the talent, but not the network of help/coaching to control/tune  his output in an efficient fashion, during those years, Josh was basically winging it during those years, but as the saying goes, alls well that ends well, 

That's not far off.

His very first year, he actually had to go medical redshirt because he broke his collarbone in his first game. He showed flashes of the determination, and refusal to stop that we see so much, but that was about it before he went down.

2016 is when he took off. Yeah, QB coaching was lacking, to say the least. But he showed flashes of what he could do. Some of which, no one in the NFL could. And some of those teammates he had that year, are still in the NFL. Like Tanner Gentry (his go to guy in 2016). And his runningback was Brian Hill, who set almost all the rushing records at Wyoming.

 

2017, Josh lost pretty much all of his main targets, runningbacks, and center. So, yeah. His stats plummeted. It would be like take his top 3 targets on the Bills right now, shoving them off to another team, and bringing in complete rookies to take over.

 

But yeah, his short throws were his bane, because no one taught him how control and touch. But his medium throws were okay, and long throws were a sight to behold.

[Brand J]

25 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I am not arguing just to argue. I dismissed the stats you listed because they had no predictive value at an individual level. It is that simple. I gave numerous examples to explain my position. Group statistics have their value, but not in the manner you want to use them.

 

For example, when you list a category that Allen fell below his peers, say completion %, did you find any research that broke down every variable that affects completion % for every QB being compared? Of course not, it would be an almost impossible task. So, saying he fell below his peers in completion % says nothing about why - which, ultimately, is what really matters in starting to evaluate a specific individual.  You cannot get the "why" from the statistics you cited.

 

In the end, we can just agree to disagree.

 

Statistics are just numbers, they have no bias or agenda, it’s simply quantitative data for how a player has performed at his position. The point you continue to miss is that I’ve said they are not an absolute predictor for a player’s success. Too many things that cannot be measured will play a part in that. What those people have done is taken those statistics, gave a comparison for how players at that position fared in the pros and then stated “if he bucked this trend that says all players with numbers in this group never amount to a franchise QB,” it’d be a statement rooted in fact, because up until Allen there hadn’t been any. That makes him an outlier relative to those statistics, regardless of all the other variables that can’t be accounted for.
 

The “why” you alluded to comes from scouting, those looking beyond the stats to form an opinion on the player. I certainly never said that comes from statistics. I mean, it really is this simple: what other QB in the history of the game played at a non-Power 5 school, had limited TDs, passing yardage, & completion percentage, but rose to become one of the two best in the game? None.

Edited October 20, 2022 by JayBaller10

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

5 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

He had accuracy issues.

 

Please don't underestimate the importance of completion percentage at all levels. 

 

It matters.  It goes with you wherever you go.

 

A permanent football scar whose shame never washes off or changes.

 

 

 

 

 

And likely didn't have the level of coaching to correct that or was not able to put in the time to work on it enough to improve.  Add in not the best WR's core either.  May also have been poor coaching to develop a gameplan to take advantage of his strengths