Tipped Balls are becoming an issue-thoughts as to why??

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't look at the numbers, but my impression watching other teams has been that there generally are more balls being tipped at the line.  It's becoming a trend, I think.  

 

I also think that's why we're seeing the QBs developing their side-arm deliveries.  More defenders are getting their hands up, for the reasons others have stated, and QBs know that they're losing completions on throws that should be easy to complete.   So, the QBs are paying more attention to where the d line is where the throwing lanes are between the d line.  Sometimes, to get the ball into a lane and on the right trajectory, they drop down to side-arm. 

 

Allen has begun doing it this season.  Historically, we've said that tall QBs have an advantage because they can see downfield better, and they also had the advantage of throwing over more guys.   But with the d linemen (who are pretty tall themselves) getting their hands up more often, even tall QBs find some of their passes are getting knocked down.  The fact that Allen has been doing some side-arm deliveries tells us that he's aware of the problem and adjusting.  

 

In some ways, I think the trend toward more balls being knocked down at the line of scrimmage tends to help the better QBs.   When a d lineman raises his arm, he becomes easier to block.  It allows the o lineman a bit of time to recover and to push his man off the path to the QB.   That means that the pocket will stay clean longer, and the Bradys, Peytons, and Breeses made whole careers playing out of clean pockets.  It also tends to open up running lanes for mobile QBs, and for running backs on draws.

 

It's all an ongoing evolution of techniques and routes and play-calling, and it's that complexity to allows the master QBs to thrive.  Josh has demonstrated already that he's a master at running his offense, and he will continue to get better.  It's batted balls this season, it'll be something else next season.    Josh will just continue to adapt, and the problem the defenses will have is that he not only has the brains to adapt, he has the physical skills to do whatever it takes.  

 

Now, I'll go way over the top, but it's not crazy.   Recall in your mind an image of Peyton in his heyday, absolutely dominating knowing what to do, all the time.  Recall Brady in his heyday - same thing.  Rodgers, too.  Well, Mahomes and Allen already are showing that kind of mental mastery of the game - they maybe haven't ascended fully to the level that those other guys have reached, but they already are doing it at a very high level.   Allen is better physically than all of them.  Rodgers at his best is the only guy who's close - excellent arm, great running ability, good escapability.   But Allen is better - better arm, breaks more tackles.   Peyton had a great arm and great accuracy, but he was immobile.  (So immobile, in fact, that he might have difficulty playing in this NFL - he would really have problems with batted balls.)  Brady couldn't hold a candle to Allen physically.   

 

Allen has a real shot at being the GOAT.   He may never put up the career stats of the others - that will depend on how the league evolves and whether passing once again becomes more difficult, but he could be the most dominant player at his position, ever.  When he was coming out of the draft, there were lots of questions about him, but everyone agreed that he had a high ceiling, really high.   He's way up there already, and he still isn't close to hitting his head. 

 

Again, most players have 4-6 tips, and in a combined 17 starts with Goff, Mariota and Brady they have 1 tipped ball between them on 570 attempts.  Herbert, last years leader with 17 has 9, 3 behind Allen and Mayfield.

 

Maybe some of these points are valid, but 12 tipped balls is too many no matter what the reason is, IMO.  He is on pace to shatter the NFL record of 23 set in 2006 with 34.

 

Could you imagine if a tipped ball ends up costing us a Super Bowl with Diggs wide open in the endzone?

Edited October 19, 2022 by Big Turk

[1ManRaid]

I'd file this alongside lack of YAC under "things that only look like a problem if you ignore context", also known as "cherry picked stats Twitter trolls will latch onto to claim Josh is overrated".

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Again, most players have 4-6 tips, and in a combined 17 starts with Goff, Mariota and Brady they have 1 tipped ball between them on 570 attempts.  Herbert, last years leader with 17 has 9, 3 behind Allen and Mayfield.

 

Maybe some of these points are valid, but 12 tipped balls is too many no matter what the reason is, IMO.  

 

Could you imagine if a tipped ball ends up costing us a Super Bowl with Diggs wide open in the endzone?

 

"No matter what the reason is" is just about one of the most ignorant things someone can say.

 

I'm not surprised QBs who do a lot of either deep passes or checkdowns away from the D-linemen don't get tipped passes.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

I'd file this alongside lack of YAC under "things that only look like a problem if you ignore context", also known as "cherry picked stats Twitter trolls will latch onto to claim Josh is overrated".

 

"No matter what the reason is" is just about one of the most ignorant things someone can say.

 

I'm not surprised QBs who do a lot of either deep passes or checkdowns away from the D-linemen don't get tipped passes.

 

So you are trying to tell me that every QB in the history of the NFL fits those categories?  Because Allen is on pace to shatter the NFL record for this, which is 23 set way back in 2006, 16 years ago by 11. Again...this is not...well, it's sort of bad...this is, it's the worst in NFL history bad.

 

Not sure how you can file this as anything other than "They need to figure it out because it has the potential to cost them an important game down the road if they don't"

Edited October 19, 2022 by Big Turk

[colin]

i think it is a few factors.

 

1, nfl Ds see allen as the number one threat, so they are more prepped and know they have trouble getting to him so they get their hands up

 

2 our O.  all of our short passes are still up field and generally in the middle.  we don't run the wheel routes (altho we should w gillium, he's never covered) and wr screens and such that so many other teams do, giving their qb a short pass w no one between them and the target.

 

3.  Allen himself.  part of it is as said before he does stare down receivers sometimes.  the other part is his quick release.  he has (if not the fastest) one of the fastest start of wind up to ball out of hand motions ever measured.  because of that he gets more time than anyone else to make a decision.  that leads to the super mega awesome plays we love.  it also leads to him kinda pushing it to the limit, and on shorter or mid range stuff, that combined w his "arc" of a flat line cuz he throws so hard means linemen can stare at his eyes and just stick their hands up when he shows whatever his tell to them is.  

[US Egg]

JA has gotten much better at placing balls that require releasing the ball at different angles.

 

So, naturally, it’s trouble in River City to some when it goes askew occasionally.

Edited October 19, 2022 by I am the egg man

[LABILLBACKER]

It's a combination of poor OL engagement and double the short, flat checkdowns. Either way it's gotta get corrected. 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Wacka said:

Taller D-linemen?

other teams would be playing those taller guys too 

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

JA has gotten much better at placing balls that require releasing the ball at different angles.

 

So, naturally, it’s trouble in River City to some when it goes askew occasionally.

 

Look...I know we want to downplay any issues the team has because they are so good but this has the potential to be a major issue down the line if they don't fix it.

 

Because you know when it's going to rear it's ugly head otherwise? On a key 3rd/4th down play late in the game in the playoffs that could be the difference between winning and losing. Just ask Aaron Rodgers against the Giants.

 

It's one thing if I was saying this and they were middle of the pack...quite another when Allen is on pace to shatter the NFL record for batted balls by a third.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Big Turk

[Dablitzkrieg]

Yeah, I don't care.   He leads the league in yards and is the best in the league

[NoSaint]

44 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

So you are trying to tell me that every QB in the history of the NFL fits those categories?  Because Allen is on pace to shatter the NFL record for this, which is 23 set way back in 2006, 16 years ago by 11. Again...this is not...well, it's sort of bad...this is, it's the worst in NFL history bad.

 

Not sure how you can file this as anything other than "They need to figure it out because it has the potential to cost them an important game down the road if they don't"

it’s completely possible something flukey happened as it’s still a smallish sample size, but it’s getting large enough that it’s likely something our blockers or qb or scheme has contributed to as the season progresses and we are uniquely on that pace. 

[US Egg]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

it’s completely possible something flukey happened as it’s still a smallish sample size, but it’s getting large enough that it’s likely something our blockers or qb or scheme has contributed to as the season progresses and we are uniquely on that pace. 

The Bills certainly give the impression that they are uniquely on pace to win a lot this season.

[NoSaint]

Just now, I am the egg man said:

The Bills certainly give the impression that they are uniquely on pace to win a lot this season.

not a soul in this thread denying that 

[nuiwek]

Defenders love Allen's balls

 

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Yeah, I don't care.   He leads the league in yards and is the best in the league

 

So if we lose the Superbowl because of a tipped ball on 4th and goal with Diggs standing wide open, still not going to care huh?

 

Just gonna chalk it up to bad luck when you knew 14 weeks ago it wasn't?

[Low Positive]

Let's cherry pick some positive stats.

• Josh Allen leads the league in intended air yards (they're taking more deep shots than any other team)
• completed air yards (Josh's passes have traveled more than 200 yards in the air than the QB in 2nd place).
• Josh's receivers have also gained the 6th highest amount of Yacs in the league. 
• Josh is tied with Tom Brady at 12.5% with the lowest pressure rate per drop back.
  • This also explains the batted balls. 

[US Egg]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

So if we lose the Superbowl because of a tipped ball on 4th and goal with Diggs standing wide open, still not going to care huh?

 

Just gonna chalk it up to bad luck when you knew 14 weeks ago it wasn't?

Worry about that when it happens. 
 

But if it were to, you can say “see”.

[Big Turk]

24 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

Worry about that when it happens. 
 

But if it were to, you can say “see”.

 

I'd rather identify the problem and fix it proactively as I am sure the coaches would.

26 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Let's cherry pick some positive stats.

• Josh Allen leads the league in intended air yards (they're taking more deep shots than any other team)
• completed air yards (Josh's passes have traveled more than 200 yards in the air than the QB in 2nd place).
• Josh's receivers have also gained the 6th highest amount of Yacs in the league. 
• Josh is tied with Tom Brady at 12.5% with the lowest pressure rate per drop back.
  • This also explains the batted balls. 

 

Really? Then why does Brady only have 1 batted ball?

[wagon127]

Were most of them in the Ravens game? With the rain, Allen had to throw the ball low, so players could use their chest to catch it. Maybe he got comfortable throwing the ball like that, and is still doing it.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

Were most of them in the Ravens game? With the rain, Allen had to throw the ball low, so players could use their chest to catch it. Maybe he got comfortable throwing the ball like that, and is still doing it.

 

No, they have been consistent in pretty much every game.

[Alphadawg7]

I think its a combo of a couple things.

1. Allens arm strength.  He just naturally has a much lower trajectory because he can deliver a strike 25 yards down field the same way other QB's throw 7 yard crossing passes.  
2. He is tall - I know this sounds counterintuitive to the point, but I can tell you as someone who is also tall (I am 6'4") that when you can see over the tops of things, it definitely gives you more confidence that you can get it there unimpeded.  You don't feel this need to get over something when you are looking right at it.  
3. Allen isn't afraid to get hit - He is not afraid to stand tall in a collapsing pocket and take a hit while trying to deliver a pass.  And all these defensive lineman are taught to get their hands up when closing in on the QB like that.  I've noticed several of these passes get knocked down when the pocket is closing in on him.  And when you factor the 2 points above into the equation in these moments, its just allowing some guys to get there hands on some passes.  

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Alphadawg7