Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm

[Bimmer323i]

8 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

One of the best drought era wins. One of rodgers worst games to that point. 

Yes I remember that game as if it was yesterday …loved it… 

[fergie's ire]

14 hours ago, rusty shackleford said:

Not even close. Bills fans root against the Patriots even when a Patriots win would be more beneficial to us just out of pure despise.

I feel seen.

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Who is? On NFLPickWatch, which congregates picks from across all sites, the Bills are tied for the biggest favorite of the week(with Dallas) at 97% of the people picking them.

 

Sounds like a healthy dose of respect and certainly doesn't play into the "media doesn't respect us" angle Bills fans desperately try to cling to for some reason. I know it's hard to let go of after all these years but that hasn't been true in over 2 years now. 

 

Just like Frozen:

 

 

I'm never going back, the past is in the past!!

Let it go! Let it goooo! 

When the Bills rise like the break of dawn...

Let it go! Let it goooooo!!

The Bills drought is gone...

 

https://youtu.be/YVVTZgwYwVo?t=174

By "media" he meant this guy:  

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

If we had pictures of that, the Internet would break

@muppy would faint

 

But if that's where we're at Game 8, one hesitates to think what will be needed by Game 16

 

8 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

By "media" he meant this guy:  

 

That's not a guy, that's a mobile transport system for a penile enhancement surgery that went tragically awry due to faceward migration

Edited October 29, 2022 by Beck Water

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

By "media" he meant this guy:  

 

Even he said the Bills "scare the hell out of him"

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I want the Bills to push the gas all the way down on the Packers.

 

This media still doesn’t respect the Bills.

 

Picking them as the upset of the week.

 

I hope McDermott takes this message to his team, that teams are waiting for them to falter like last year after Kansas City.

 

If they get up big this week, I want to see them go for 50+ and try to demoralize the Packers.

 

Sorry it’s them, but this city has suffered for too long to have pity, it’s our time, and absolute destruction is in order. 

What is “this media”?  I’ve seen several prediction shows this week and have only seen one person pick the packers.  40 or so picked the Bills

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

What is “this media”?  I’ve seen several prediction shows this week and have only seen one person pick the packers.  40 or so picked the Bills

 

Exactly what I said...NFLPickWatch.com has aggregated picks by all the media members and the Bills are tied with Dallas for the biggest favorites of the week at 97%

[muppy]

40 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

If we had pictures of that, the Internet would break

@muppy would faint

 

But if that's where we're at Game 8, one hesitates to think what will be needed by Game 16

 

 

That's not a guy, that's a mobile transport system for a penile enhancement surgery that went tragically awry due to faceward migration

translation: He's a  ****head..YEP concur

 

PS: Dawson Knox you clean up soooo nicely. 🤗  *muppy breathes in 1-2-3-4 exhales 5-6-77777** 

 

☺️

Edited October 29, 2022 by muppy

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Exactly what I said...NFLPickWatch.com has aggregated picks by all the media members and the Bills are tied with Dallas for the biggest favorites of the week at 97%

Idk, I didn’t read your post and was quoting someone else asking them. 

[Yobogoya!]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

What is “this media”?  I’ve seen several prediction shows this week and have only seen one person pick the packers.  40 or so picked the Bills

 

I mean either the Bills beat the Packers this week (most likely) or the Bills beat themselves (far less likely, but mathematically possible).

 

 There is no scenario in which the Packers beat the Bills this week so it honestly shouldn't even be an option to select. 

[Beck Water]

 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

16 hours ago, Ice bowl 67 said:

I doubt it. Im sure when the Jets pounded us 2 weeks ago Buffalo fans were not minding it at all.

 

We dont care about the Packers at all

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, Tom Donahoe, GM said:

 

We dont care about the Packers at all

Speak for yourself. I was thinking "Good, because I hate that Ice Bowl fella."😈
 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Some excerpts:

 

Cosell points out the Packers have had a lot of flux on their OL.  Last week, it was the first time they started those 5 OLmen in those positions.

He says they fundamentally have 2 run games, one for Jones and one for Dillon; at times their run game is good, but overall it's inconsistent (I add, maybe that has to do with the flux on OL?).

 

He says that in his opinion, based on his knowledge of route concepts and coverages, Rodgers is passing up throws that are there.  He can't say why, speculates maybe it's lack of confidence in guys he is throwing to.  Also says Rodgers has not been as precise in his ball placement as in previous years.  The result is an offense that makes some big plays, but can't sustain a consistent offense.

 

Talk about the Packers expectation of production from young receivers - says that young receivers do come into the league and produce, and that as young receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase probably made assignment mistakes - "That, to me, is not a reason to say that we can't play well". 

 

Last 3 games they are 25% (8 for 32) on 3rd downs with an average of 7.5 yds to go

 

On D : last 3 games, Zaire Alexander has been assigned to man on the opponent's top receiver, should we expect that, given Diggs has historically had success against Alexander dating back to his time with the Vikings?  Cosell thinks probably that's what we'll see.  But the Packers don't play a high percentage of man, so don't expect a pure man-to-man coverage, he'll have help. 

 

Says the Packers base D is 5-2, they play a 4-2 nickel and a 5-1 nickel.  Says that the Packers blitz percentage on various stats sites is misleading, because many of them characterize 5 man pressure as a blitz, but when the packers are in a 5 man DL front he wouldn't characterize that as a blitz.  (Interesting!). 

 

Says the Packers D has good players, was expected to be better, and he's trying to figure out why it's not as good as was expected.  [Brown says the Packers have 7 first round picks on their defense!]

 

Regarding the Bills, they discuss whether the Bills offense has become over-reliant on Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs.  Cosell says sooner or later, teams are going to decide to take that away (though, he doesn't discuss how the Bills are making that tougher by moving Diggs EVERYWHERE on the field and having him run all kinds of routes).  Says that perhaps the Bills have adjustments we haven't seen yet, because what they're doing is working.

 

Cosell likes Dawson Knox and would like to see him be a higher volume player.

 

That's all the Bills talk they have.  They go on to talk about NE at Jets ~16 minutes in and then on around the league.

 

[Beck Water]

Locked on Packers podcast

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Locked on Packers podcast

 

 

 

 

OK, so of Quessenberry, he says bluntly "sort of a journeyman, not a great player" - views Brown being out as a big deal the Packers can exploit.

Obviously, Tennessee moved on from him, but he did start all 17 games + a playoff game for them last season, a 12-5 season in which the Titans star running back King Henry went out Week 7 for the rest of the season, and the Titans still finished with a top-5 rushing attack and had 3 games close to or over 200 yds rushing without Henry.

 

I don't see how you do that with an OL who is "not a very good player" manning the RT. 🤷‍♂️  He had 1 penalty last season, 1 so far this season.

 

Maybe I just have a soft spot for Quessenberry because here's a guy who got drafted in 2013, spent his first season on IR, came back and got ready to rumble, and promptly discovered he had cancer.   Spent 3 years totally out of football fighting cancer, then came back and spent 3 years fighting his way onto a roster.  "Career journeyman" doesn't somehow seem like the right description of that.

 

Or maybe I'm just not sold on Spencer Brown as our lockdown RT of the future, so Quessenberry doesn't seem such a big step down to me?

 

Anyway, I guess I can agree that Buffalo's line is not a "bunch of ass-kickers up front", but with the Bills #1 in yards and #2 in points offensively going into the bye, even with our creature at QB I don't see how that's achieved without a good OL. 

 

He's all excited about the idea that since 2021, Josh has 5 "multi-interception" games (he doesn't mention, "of which Bills won 3") while one has to go back to 2015 to find 5 "multi-interception" games for Aaron Rodgers.  Well, OK then. 

 

So he thinks the Packers can pressure Josh and get him to make mistakes throwing into coverage.  It's an idea, but if we look at Josh's actual picks especially this season, I think only one was arguably a mistake throwing deep into coverage (for Davis, in strong wind - Davis let the corner get between him and the ball). 

 

He does give props to our DL.

 

He says the path to victory is for the Packers to run and run and run the ball (he doesn't mention what team has the #1 rush defense in football for y/a and 1st downs rushing.  huh.) and on defense, pressure Josh Allen and make him uncomfortable because he'll try to fit the ball into tight windows on coverage and you can "react and get over there and make plays".

 

At this point I stopped watching because, you know, I "get" trying to find a strategy where your team can win, but when you're proposing to attack what has so far been a strength of the Bills this season - our run D, including against the league's top rush team this season in the Ravens and a couple traditionally good rush teams like the Titans - and take advantage of something that I don't think really exists (pressuring Josh into mistakes throwing into deep coverage)................... well, Moving On Here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Beck Water

[Not at the table Karlos]

21 hours ago, Ice bowl 67 said:

Not me. You guys hate me on this board.

Never understood the hate you get. I have no issues with you. Come back whenever.

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK, so of Quessenberry, he says bluntly "sort of a journeyman, not a great player" - views Brown being out as a big deal the Packers can exploit.

Obviously, Tennessee moved on from him, but he did start all 17 games + a playoff game for them last season, a 12-5 season in which the Titans star running back King Henry went out Week 7 for the rest of the season, and the Titans still finished with a top-5 rushing attack and had 3 games close to or over 200 yds rushing without Henry.

 

I don't see how you do that with an OL who is "not a very good player" manning the RT. 🤷‍♂️  He had 1 penalty last season, 1 so far this season.

 

Maybe I just have a soft spot for Quessenberry because here's a guy who got drafted in 2013, spent his first season on IR, came back and got ready to rumble, and promptly discovered he had cancer.   Spent 3 years totally out of football fighting cancer, then came back and spent 3 years fighting his way onto a roster.  "Career journeyman" doesn't somehow seem like the right description of that.

 

Or maybe I'm just not sold on Spencer Brown as our lockdown RT of the future, so Quessenberry doesn't seem such a big step down to me?

 

Anyway, I guess I can agree that Buffalo's line is not a "bunch of ass-kickers up front", but with the Bills #1 in yards and #2 in points offensively going into the bye, even with our creature at QB I don't see how that's achieved without a good OL. 

 

He's all excited about the idea that since 2021, Josh has 5 "multi-interception" games (he doesn't mention, "of which Bills won 3") while one has to go back to 2015 to find 5 "multi-interception" games for Aaron Rodgers.  Well, OK then. 

 

So he thinks the Packers can pressure Josh and get him to make mistakes throwing into coverage.  It's an idea, but if we look at Josh's actual picks especially this season, I think only one was arguably a mistake throwing deep into coverage (for Davis, in strong wind - Davis let the corner get between him and the ball). 

 

He does give props to our DL.

 

He says the path to victory is for the Packers to run and run and run the ball (he doesn't mention what team has the #1 rush defense in football for y/a and 1st downs rushing.  huh.) and on defense, pressure Josh Allen and make him uncomfortable because he'll try to fit the ball into tight windows on coverage and you can "react and get over there and make plays".

 

At this point I stopped watching because, you know, I "get" trying to find a strategy where your team can win, but when you're proposing to attack what has so far been a strength of the Bills this season - our run D, including against the league's top rush team this season in the Ravens and a couple traditionally good rush teams like the Titans - and take advantage of something that I don't think really exists (pressuring Josh into mistakes throwing into deep coverage)................... well, Moving On Here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the thorough review.  It sounds like an analysis filled with wishful thinking.  I agree - those are the scenarios that would enable the Packers to compete, but not likely to happen.  

[BritBill]

A long day of football for me tomorrow which comes to a crescendo with our beloved Bills in the early hours of Sunday morning.

 

Up early in the morning for the train ride to London with my son, friend and his son. A full English breakfast before moving onto Wembley for pre-match drinks and festivities before Denver v Jacksonville kicks off at 1:30. No doubt it’ll be a shoutout.

 

After the game head back into central London to watch Dallas v Chicago (my friend and his son are Cowboys’ fans) and food.

 

Train home north at 9pm. Arrive home around 11:30pm in time for Packers v Bills and a big bottle of water. 
 

I do have Monday off work so I can have a good sleep once we’ve put Green Bay in its place. 
 

Enjoy your day and the game my friends. Wherever you are and whatever you do. Go Bills. 

Edited October 29, 2022 by BritBill

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, BritBill said:

A long day of football for me tomorrow which comes to a crescendo with our beloved Bills in the early hours of Sunday morning.

 

Up early in the morning for the train ride to London with my son, friend and his son. A full English breakfast before moving onto Wembley for pre-match drinks and festivities before Denver v Jacksonville kicks off at 1:30. No doubt it’ll be a shoutout.

 

After the game head back into central London to watch Dallas v Chicago (my friend and his son are Cowboys’ fans) and food.

 

Train home north at 9pm. Arrive home around 11:30pm in time for Packers v Bills and a big bottle of water. 
 

I do have Monday off work so I can have a good sleep once we’ve put Green Bay in its place. 
 

Enjoy your day and the game my friends. Wherever you are and whatever you do. Go Bills. 

Whatcha gonna smash for your English breakfast?