Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

7 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Meh, seems low to me.

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

Edited October 19, 2022 by SACTOBILLSFAN

[Bills2022]

27 minutes ago, The Red King said:

 

Let the gravitas of that statement sink in. 😆

 

NFL Power Rankings.  

 

Vikings #6

Giants #5

Jets #7

 

Thanks for playing.  🤣

[DCofNC]

1 minute ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can win this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

Just now, DCofNC said:

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

Books don't hedge on possible injuries, they just keep the limits lower on their look ahead lines. It might re-open a little lower if the Pack can get right a little bit against Washington, but it won't be by much. I'm hoping it re-opens at 7.5 and a bunch of pros that grab numbers on the other side of key numbers early in the week get it down to 7. 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Yeah gona be an insane welcome for Tre. Would be awesome if Tre not only returns that game, but also gets an INT in his first game returned....!!

Sunday night too!! 

[TPS]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 And we have the only starting QB in the league averaging over 300 yards a game(Believe or not Flacco averaged 300.3 in 3 starts). I don't think this game will be close and the fans will be going nuts with it being a night game, first game since beating KC and not seeing our team play in 2 weeks. Josh 341 yards passing, 48 yards rushing, 3 passing tds and 2 rushing tds. Bills - 48 Pack - 17.

 

 

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Edited October 19, 2022 by SACTOBILLSFAN

[TPS]

Just now, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Yes, I mentioned it because it's the counter to the Packers having the #1 passing D--the only decent QB they have faced is Cousins, unless you want to count the old man.

[Kaenon]

3 hours ago, DollaBills said:

Packers have been paper tigers for a few years now. Now they are just listless. Going to be amazing night game hopefully with Tre returning

That Rodgers contract man.

[Big Turk]

Honestly surprised it's not more. GB living off the past with Vegas.

[hemma]

The last time we played them was 9/30/18 and we were thumped 22-0.

 

Josh: 16/33, 151, 0 TD, 2 ints, 1 fumble, rtg 36.3, qbr 4.9, sacked 7 times, 11 qb hits,

 

Anybody think he just might remember that game?

 

 

oops.  Almost forgot.  2.2 yards per pass.

Edited October 19, 2022 by hemma

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

[GolfandBills]

I’m actually shocked it’s not double digits 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

 

I don't think it will really matter in terms of a win or loss for the Bills, I'm only talking about the gambling angle and getting a tick down in the spread. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

For as much as I hear about a team being pissed off and dangerous following an embarrassing loss I wonder if there's any statistical evidence that this is a factor.  If anything I would guess that demoralizing losses just lead to more losing.

 

I would be curious to know that too actually.  But I do think all time greats find ways to dig deeper though.  On paper this team should be better than it is, so the point is, they can turn it on at any point, don't take them lightly is the moral of the story.

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

They won’t be coming off that loss. They play at Washington on Sunday.

 

Yeah, the Washington game is an easy get right game for them.  I should have clarified that.  Not to mention, lots of talk of them making a trade for a WR too here soon. 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[L Ron Burgundy]

7 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

What’s gonna fall in place? A nuke?

Wrs get healthy.   They had 4 out one week and that's a position they already suck at.  

[JoPoy88]

8 hours ago, Bills2022 said:

 

NFL Power Rankings.  

 

Vikings #6

Giants #5

Jets #7

 

Thanks for playing.  🤣

citing power rankings now? As actual facts even. Thank you for playing. 

[GETTOTHE50]

What is up with the packers anyway?

 

where is that troll iceberg when it actually makes sense? 

[LyndonvilleBill]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

I'm torn on this. They win, it could help them gain confidence,  they lose, it could totally suck the soul out of them.🤔😁

[Repulsif]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I expect to sack Rodgers 6 times

and how many roughting the passer ?