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Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm


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7 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Meh, seems low to me.

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

Edited by SACTOBILLSFAN
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1 minute ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can win this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

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Just now, DCofNC said:

I hear ya, I think it should be closer to -13, but they are probably being a bit cautious not setting it too high, there’s a 2 week window, it could get real weird if Rodgers gets hurt. 

Books don't hedge on possible injuries, they just keep the limits lower on their look ahead lines. It might re-open a little lower if the Pack can get right a little bit against Washington, but it won't be by much. I'm hoping it re-opens at 7.5 and a bunch of pros that grab numbers on the other side of key numbers early in the week get it down to 7. 

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2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 And we have the only starting QB in the league averaging over 300 yards a game(Believe or not Flacco averaged 300.3 in 3 starts). I don't think this game will be close and the fans will be going nuts with it being a night game, first game since beating KC and not seeing our team play in 2 weeks. Josh 341 yards passing, 48 yards rushing, 3 passing tds and 2 rushing tds. Bills - 48 Pack - 17.

 

 

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

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3 minutes ago, TPS said:

That's why I find it interesting.  When you look at the passing D stats, most of the teams the Bills have played are at the bottom, and most of the teams at the top have not played many good QBs.  Cousins and Brady both threw for 270-80 yards against the Pack, so I think your projection is close on yards.

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Edited by SACTOBILLSFAN
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Just now, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

Part of the reason the guys who have played the Bills are at the bottom are because they played the Bills in 16.7% of their games.

Yes, I mentioned it because it's the counter to the Packers having the #1 passing D--the only decent QB they have faced is Cousins, unless you want to count the old man.

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The last time we played them was 9/30/18 and we were thumped 22-0.

 

Josh: 16/33, 151, 0 TD, 2 ints, 1 fumble, rtg 36.3, qbr 4.9, sacked 7 times, 11 qb hits,

 

Anybody think he just might remember that game?

 

 

oops.  Almost forgot.  2.2 yards per pass.

Edited by hemma
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1 hour ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

The Bills under McDermott have been stellar post bye week. 5-0, and scoring 4.82 more points than their average and allowing 1.11 points fewer than their average. Bake those numbers into the Ralph in a prime time spot, I make it more Bills -9, but if the Packers can manage to win convincingly this week that might come down to 7 and then I'll hit it. 

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

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10 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd rather be playing the Packers coming off a W then a loss. Either way I think we give Aaron fits and win by 10.

 

I don't think it will really matter in terms of a win or loss for the Bills, I'm only talking about the gambling angle and getting a tick down in the spread. 

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3 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

For as much as I hear about a team being pissed off and dangerous following an embarrassing loss I wonder if there's any statistical evidence that this is a factor.  If anything I would guess that demoralizing losses just lead to more losing.

 

I would be curious to know that too actually.  But I do think all time greats find ways to dig deeper though.  On paper this team should be better than it is, so the point is, they can turn it on at any point, don't take them lightly is the moral of the story.

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

They won’t be coming off that loss. They play at Washington on Sunday.

 

Yeah, the Washington game is an easy get right game for them.  I should have clarified that.  Not to mention, lots of talk of them making a trade for a WR too here soon. 

Edited by Alphadawg7
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