How badly did we need that victory against KC? Very, given KC’s remaining schedule.

[Process]

Everyone has an easy schedule. There are 3 good teams in the entire league.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

@Niners (-3)

Titans (-6)

Jags (-10)

@Chargers (+2.5)

Rams (-3) 

@Bengals (-1)

@Broncos (PK)

@Texans (-11)

Seahawks (-11)

Broncos (-4)

@Raiders (-3)

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

Quote

Packers (-4) 

@Jets (-7)

Vikings (-7.5)

Browns (-10.5)

@Lions (-9)

@Patriots (-3)

Jets (-9.5)

Dolphins (-6)

@Bears (-7.5)

@Bengals (-1)

Patriots (-7.5)

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

Edited October 18, 2022 by BillsFanSD

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So is the question, should we still be worried even though we won? Seems like you are talking yourself into still being worried, which is fine because nothing is a given until those seeds are locked in.

 

The win was critical to getting the #1 seed for sure. It would be tough to get a game ahead of the chiefs if we had lost. Now that we are a game ahead, it seems like as long as we dont have a couple jaguars games, we should be ok, but any given sunday for both us and the chiefs.

 

 

 

 

The thread title was essentially we badly needed this victory given the chief's schedule.

 

We got it.

 

In my opinion their schedule is easier than ours, and I also state I expect the Bills to go at least  14-3.  

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[PromoTheRobot]

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

[Process]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

No way those are current. Probably pre season odds. 

 

If we were -4 vs gb I would mortgage the house.

[dollars 2 donuts]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting.  The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders.  They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA.      

 

Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates):

 

 

We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close.  Three if you toss in GB. 

 

I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent.  But our schedule is easy too.  The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome.  If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error.

 

(Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).     

 

 

Great info.  May you live to be a thousand years old, my friend. 

 

If you get bored after 500 years or so I don't kno what to tell ya...sorry.  😄   👍

 

 

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

 

 

Our D is sooooo dang good, though, Promo!

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[BillsFanSD]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

Every team that plays KC will try to mimic what we did on defense.

And KC will hang 35+ on them, because that's what happens when you don't have a defense loaded with pro bowlers. 

 

I know we're all fans and homers, but the 2022 Bills legitimately like one of those teams that people will remember 20 years from now.  This team is flat-out stacked.  Just because we can hold KC to 20 points doesn't mean that anybody else can expect to do so.  

[Matt_In_NH]

The Chiefs are better than most of their opponents but there are not many cupcakes on there.

[JoshAllin]

10 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

And KC will hang 35+ on them, because that's what happens when you don't have a defense loaded with pro bowlers. 

 

'Had' pro bowlers, Hyde and Tre are still out, Poyer is banged up, backfield is filled with rookies and backups. Von is basically making the D look scary. Teams will need a Milano type of guy on their LB roster if they want to do any mimic ing

Edited October 18, 2022 by motorj

[Big Turk]

Wrong.  The Chiefs have the 15th hardest future schedule, the Bills have the 24th hardest future schedule.  KC needed that win more than we did using your logic.

 

The Jets have the hardest future schedule.  They likely will be falling off soon.

 

And of course, posting the image doesn't work, which is starting to get really annoying since it happens half the time I try it now...within the size limits but gives the red "X" when I try and post it.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2022/regular

Edited October 18, 2022 by Big Turk

[Michael1962]

For me, it will be interesting to see how the chiefs play with SD and the Raiders when they go to their home field.  If I remember them correctly they were both one score games that could have been losses without luck and help from the zebras.  I would not be shocked if they lost to either or both.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, RichRiderBills said:

Seems like an overreaction. Really disagree...I think it's rougher than ours.

 

@ Niners is a tough game. 

 

Raiders nearly beat them at home. @ Broncos no joke. 

 

Titans are tough, Jags giving people fits. 

 

Rams are the SB champs and match up well. Could have OBJ by then. Even hags and Texans are not easy outs.

 

 

 

 

I agree.

 

Ours is easier.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I wouldn't underestimate their divisional games.  Those teams always play them close

Also to a certain degree the Chiefs play to there competition's level.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I agree.

 

Ours is easier.

 

We also have the easiest remaining schedule in our division. Ours ranks 24th in the NFL, Dolphins 18th, Pats 10th and Jets have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, motorj said:

KC doesn't have DB's, they don't have a run game, and the bills just released a new blueprint

 

They have DBs at QB and TE.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Gugny

[PetermansRedemption]

1 hour ago, Mafioso said:

@ Broncos "no joke?"  Have you watched the Broncos play?  They've had 4 prime time games already and have failed to score more than 19 points in any of those games.  The Broncos are atrocious.

The Broncos offense is atrocious*. Their D is actually really good. That could spell disaster for Mahomes who is used to getting multiple picks dropped by defenses each game. 

[SCBills]

Great thing about the parity in the league is all these teams will likely still believe their seasons are alive, pretty much, to the end.

 

Broncos Defense is absolutely ferocious, but man... Russ looks so washed.  

 

Going into the KC game, I did believe that the 1 seed will be 14-3.  Thing was, I saw very realistic scenarios where both Buffalo and Kansas City are 14-3.. Still do..  Which is why that head to head is so important. 

[Ta111]

1 hour ago, Process said:

No way those are current. Probably pre season odds. 

 

If we were -4 vs gb I would mortgage the house.

Agreed. Coming off a bye week and GB looking like crap, I expect at least a 9 point spread.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Everyone was expecting the AFC West to be the toughest division, so far it hasn't happened.  The problem is there were too many changes made to these rosters (QB's, coaches) and many often overlook how much time it takes all the moves to jell.  I do think by the 2nd half of the season these teams will start to play better, particularly Raiders and Chargers.  Seems every year the Raiders start slow and dig themselves too deep of a hole to easily get out of.

 

Recent history also shows all teams loses games they were expected to win.  Last year late Nov the question was would the Bills be able to win the division or even make the playoffs.  By the end of the season if Allen had scored against Tenn instead of getting stopped on the 1 yard line, the playoffs would have come thru Buffalo.  Point is teams will lose games they were big favorites in including KC.

[nosejob]

44 minutes ago, Michael1962 said:

For me, it will be interesting to see how the chiefs play with SD and the Raiders when they go to their home field.  If I remember them correctly they were both one score games that could have been losses without luck and help from the zebras.  I would not be shocked if they lost to either or both.

I agree. Chargers, Cincy, Titans and Raiders I think are capable and though Wilson looks bad, that defense is good and if he suddenly has a good game....I just think the Chiefs will lose at least 2 more.

 

If we beat GB and I think we will, we'd have to drop 3 and still have the tie breaker. After GB, I don't see us dropping 3.