Turning Point: The 96 Yard Drive

[K-9]

If that was the turning point, then the turning point to the turning point was 3rd and 13 from the Bills’  one yard line. That play demonstrated nearly everything that makes Allen exceptional as a QB. I hope Cian Fahey was watching. System QB my ass.

[947]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

For all those years, I'd see Brady in that position, or Manning, or Brees, or Rodgers, and think, "Uh, oh.  He can do this."   For all those years, I never had that thought with the Bills. 

 

But sometime a couple of years ago I started thinking, "Allen can do this."   Yesterday, like the rest of you, all I had to do was think back one week to the opening drive that began and the 2.  It's just so unusual to me to have those kind of thoughts with the Bills.

The crazy thing is, when Brady, Rodgers, or Brees did it, they were almost always helped by extra chances given by the refs. Even now, if Brady is attempting a big drive- a team has to stop him 3x on 3rd downs because he'll get a phantom defensive holding call or PI on the first 2.

 

We got no help from the refs and still did it.

[Bills2022]

50 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't believe in "momentum" in sports.  That's not a real thing.

 

Player psychology is a real thing, though, and this drive was huge at the time at keeping our confidence high, so in that sense, it was important.

I also would NOT call it a "turning point."

 

 

 

Momentum is a very real thing.  The University of Wisconsin used machine learning to prove it, although we already knew it was real.

 

On the existence of momentum in professional football | PLOS ONE

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604

 

[Jukester]

16 minutes ago, K-9 said:

If that was the turning point, then the turning point to the turning point was 3rd and 13 from the Bills’  one yard line. That play demonstrated nearly everything that makes Allen exceptional as a QB. I hope Cian Fahey was watching. System QB my ass.

 

 

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't believe in "momentum" in sports.  That's not a real thing.

 

Player psychology is a real thing, though, and this drive was huge at the time at keeping our confidence high, so in that sense, it was important.

I also would NOT call it a "turning point."

 

 

The Turning point was Von Miller sacking Mahomes and forcing a punt in the 4th quarter.  That gave the ball back to Josh Allen, who marched us down the field for the go ahead and game winning TD.

[BruceVilanch]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I don't believe in "momentum" in sports.  That's not a real thing.

 

Player psychology is a real thing, though, and this drive was huge at the time at keeping our confidence high, so in that sense, it was important.

I also would NOT call it a "turning point."

 

 

12 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

 

Momentum is a very real thing.  The University of Wisconsin used machine learning to prove it, although we already knew it was real.

 

On the existence of momentum in professional football | PLOS ONE

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604

 

What if he doesn't believe in machine learning?

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, 947 said:

The crazy thing is, when Brady, Rodgers, or Brees did it, they were almost always helped by extra chances given by the refs. Even now, if Brady is attempting a big drive- a team has to stop him 3x on 3rd downs because he'll get a phantom defensive holding call or PI on the first 2.

 

We got no help from the refs and still did it.

I really don't like to complain about the refs, but this is true.  Brady got his phantom roughing the passer call last week, and Jones got away with the trip that the whole world could see.   

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Jukester said:

Obviously there were so many great moments in this game.  But this drive with 1:29 left in the first half, backed up in our own end, down 7-3, was clutch in keeping us in the game.  If we punt from our own end zone here, there was a good possibility we go to the half down 14-3.  On 3rd and 13 Allen slings an 18 yd completion from our end zone to Davis for a first down and then stays perfect the rest of the drive, capping it off with a 34 yard dime to Davis for the TD.  Huge turning point and momentum builder for the rest of the game.  Just unreal.  

 

1st & 10 at BUF 4        
(1:29) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-R.Saffold, False Start, 2 yards, enforced at BUF 4 - No Play.        
1st & 12 at BUF 2        
(1:29) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to I.McKenzie.        
2nd & 12 at BUF 2        
(1:24) (Shotgun) J.Allen left guard to BUF 1 for -1 yards (N.Bolton).        
3rd & 13 at BUF 1        
(1:18) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to G.Davis to BUF 19 for 18 yards (J.Williams).        
1st & 10 at BUF 19        
(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to D.Knox to BUF 22 for 3 yards (N.Bolton).        
2nd & 7 at BUF 22        
(:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left to S.Diggs pushed ob at KC 48 for 30 yards (Ja.Watson).        
1st & 10 at KC 48        
(:28) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to K.Shakir to KC 34 for 14 yards (J.Reid; J.Thornhill).        
1st & 10 at KC 34        
(:22) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep right to G.Davis for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.        
XP attempt from KC 15        
T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-S.Martin.        
 

There is no looking back. This is the year.  Go Bills.

Really hope we see a lot more of Shakir moving forward.

[US Egg]

1 hour ago, Jukester said:

Just unreal.

.....says it all.

 

 

[Billsatlastin2018]

Sal Capacchio reviewed this precise scenario this morning,when a caller brought it up.

 

Turning point? Perhaps not.

Critical point? 100%!

 

Think of it this way.

 

How many HCs, let alone Bills’ HCs, would have chosen their QBs to fire it up, during a 3rd. & 13 from their own 2… during this entire pre Unicorn Millenium?

 

NONE IS THE ANSWER!

Absolutely… none! A running play to get to the 5, to give the Punter more room was the only previous choice.
 

And the Bills have done it twice in 2 weeks!

 

And why? Because of course, they have a potential HOF QB, that can throw 98 yard TD passes and leap small LBs with a single bound!

 

WHO can do that?

WHO have the Bills ever had that could do that?

[Nextmanup]

52 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

 

Momentum is a very real thing.  The University of Wisconsin used machine learning to prove it, although we already knew it was real.

 

On the existence of momentum in professional football | PLOS ONE

 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604

 

I just had a look at that, but will have to read it later when I have a lot more time.

 

I'll get back to you; I'm interested to see what the study says, though don't confuse the results of a study as "fact."

 

 

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

 

There was a movement a few years ago led by analytics people like Barnwell who felt they "proved" momentum doesn't exist in sports. It's sort of the "stop believing your lying eyes" type of analysis which led to everyone making fun of Allen coming into the league. 

 

https://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/

 

That's what the previous poster is parroting. 

Analytics. Okay, I get it. I'm sure Barnwell is a smart guy, but I see some flaws immediately and I don't have time to read all that.

 

"One of the arguments against going for it in that situation is that you can give the momentum to the other team by kicking..."

 

This right here seems like a straw man argument to me. You don't transfer momentum away by kicking a FG. If your offense drove down and got 3 points, you still have the momentum or it remains even at least. If you go for it and get stopped, then you may have a momentum swing for the other team's defense.

 

On that point, he also doesn't take into effect the separation between the three phases, offense/defense/ST. This is a mistake people often make. When talking about momentum, you have to separate them.

 

Consider this KC game: that end-of-half drive gave the momentum to the Bills offense. That doesn't always translate to the other phase of the game. KC's offense could still roll. What Josh and the Bills do on offense is not going to affect what Mahomes and the Chiefs offense does.

 

So Barnwell starts his next line of reasoning and analysis on a false premise. Just because the other team's defense makes a stop, doesn't mean their offense suddenly has momentum. It means their defense took the momentum from the other team's offense.

 

Somewhat related, it's like people saying "it's Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes!!" when it's really not. It's Josh vs KC's defense alongside Mahomes vs Buffalo's defense.