The Bills got better, and KC got worse

[Success]

First, I have all kinds of respect for KC, and they & the Bills are definitely 1b and 1a.

 

But the Bills are better.  Even though it just came down to a couple of plays yesterday & we could have easily lost, we're the better overall team now, on both sides of the ball.  In the offseason, we built up the unit that was always vexing for us when facing Mahomes, and we now have the pass rush that was so needed for years against him.  It made the difference yesterday in getting those stops that we couldn't get in the playoff game.  The secondary is also better, even with our best player in that unit still being out.

 

KC is worse. Still one of the best teams in the NFL - but losing Hill was a big, big deal...at least for the Bills. It was always the Kelce/Hill combo that was too difficult for us to defend.  Kelce is still getting his, but without that big play threat that Hill always represented, that team is just easier for us to get stops against.

 

All that said, of course they could still beat us in the playoffs.  Yesterday was close - but I also felt like the Bills made a bunch of mistakes that kept it close.  The fact that we now have the inside track for homefield could make all the difference.  I love our chances if the rematch is in Buffalo.

 

[BuffaloBill]

I tend to agree from the standpoint that Hill / Kelce were an elite dual threat. Kelce remains an elite single threat and was a monster for the Bills to deal with.

 

Mahomes, maybe like Josh is at his best when he goes off script.  Josh clearly looks for Diggs as a 1st choice but I would argue he also makes use of others.  Mahomes either has not developed that chemistry or it has not worked out for him so far this season.

 

I do wonder like many around here if McKenzie’s playing time drops simply because he does not seem to play as well off script.  Shakir may be prone to rookie mistakes but has also displayed a unique set of abilities.  I think after the bye Lil’dirty will be relegated to return duties.

[ToGoGo]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I tend to agree from the standpoint that Hill / Kelce were an elite dual threat. Kelce remains an elite single threat and was a monster for the Bills to deal with.

 

Mahomes, maybe like Josh is at his best when he goes off script.  Josh clearly looks for Diggs as a 1st choice but I would argue he also makes use of others.  Mahomes either has not developed that chemistry or it has not worked out for him so far this season.

 

I do wonder like many around here if McKenzie’s playing time drops simply because he does not seem to play as well off script.  Shakir may be prone to rookie mistakes but has also displayed a unique set of abilities.  I think after the bye Lil’dirty will be relegated to return duties.

 

Like everyone else, I was very disappointed with Mckenzie's play, but considering how clutch he has been for us in the past I'm willing to give him another week to prove yesterday was due to lingering concussion symptoms. 

[Nextmanup]

I think we are the slightly better team right now.

 

I definitely do not think KC has regressed this year; I think they are stronger than they were last year, have better defense, and the loss of Hill has not slowed them nearly as much as I thought.

 

In fact, it hasn't really slowed them at all.

 

Assuming we do enough winning to get to the game, KC will be standing there waiting for us in the playoffs.

 

Let's just hope that game is in Orchard Park!  I think that has to help us.

 

It may well be the first playoff game Mahomes ever plays in an unfamiliar stadium, which you would think would upset him a little bit.  Definite communication problems for Chiefs in OP as well...and no such problems for Josh.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

Agreed.  We got much better on defense.  The chiefs got a little better on D and a little worse, imo, on O.  
 

Yet, it was still a super close game that KC could have won while playing without their 2nd and 3rd best corners.  We smartly took advantage of a guy that probably won’t be playing much vs us in the playoffs this season (Josh Williams).  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1a and 1b is a reasonable take.  Yes Hill is a loss but Smith-Schuster went off for 5 catches and 113 yards. They still have other complimentary receivers as well. The real difference is the defenses.  Bills are giving up 11 pts/game less than KC, have 5 more sacks, and all importantly Bills have 13 takeaways to the Chiefs 5.  Better yet Bills have 10 INT to Chiefs only 1.  Fumbles are more random. INT are a better measure of a team's ability to take the ball away.  Bills D is legit this year.  They can effectively rush 4 or even three and drop back into coverage.  Yes sometimes that means they get dinked and dunked down the field but it forces the other team to be nearly perfect on offense.  If the opponent does not have a HOF QB and TE that is really hard to do.  

[BullBuchanan]

We won, but I wouldn't be so quick to relegate KC. Yea, they lost Hill, but they showed us they have young talent like Moore and Pacheco on the rise. They'll definitely draft more weapons this offseason too. In the end the game came down to a one score affair with Mahomes having the ball and an opportunity to win it.

I won't make a habit of betting against them in that spot, regardless of how well we play.

[SCBills]

KC did a great job offsetting the losses of Tyreek Hill and Charvarious Ward by signing Juju/MVS and drafting McDuffie and some later round corners who fit their scheme.  

 

Never the less, they (pretty clearly) aren't as dynamic without Tyreek Hill.. He's just a once in a generation player. 

 

This is essentially the position I expect us to be in next year when we likely look at replacing all, or some of, Saffold/Singletary/Edmunds/Poyer/Phillips with in-house guys (Bernard, Cook, Hamlin) and Draft Picks. 

 

Maybe we find a way to keep one or two of those guys but the reason the Bills/Chiefs seem to be locked into a decade of battles for AFC supremacy isn't just due to Allen/Mahomes.. It's also due to how elite their GM's are at roster construction. 

 

Luckily for us, we don't have a guy the absurd level of Tyreek Hill to make a decision on. 

[Rc2catch]

I would like to agree. I’m not sure though. They don’t invest big or have stars on defense but they always seem to play well against buffalo. They scheme against this offense quite well. 
They make up the talent gap. 
On paper and trends Buffalo should have been able to torch them yesterday. 
The best sign I took from the entire game was Buffalos pass rush. Rousseau I’m guessing went in the dog house for not following the game plan but they were actually getting to Mahomes and that has not been the case in the past. He’s gonna dance and scramble and make his plays. But they got home a lot too and that was the big difference for me anyways. 

[Olliemets]

No doubt, although KC still very dangerous. Glad Hill is gone. Hate to open the wound, but if not for "13 Seconds" We'd have beaten them 3 straight at Arrowhead.

 

Don't want to go back there until next year.....and frankly I'm pissed we have to. Seems like other than 2020 we've made regular season trips there seemingly every year

[Lost]

I dunno, I don't think KC got any worse from last year.  They have a good rookie class in McDuffie and Sky Moore among others.  

[hemma]

I read many posts last week where KC was proclaimed to have a strong running attack..

 

We held them to 3.78 YPC yesterday and i think that is where i see the biggest change.  Our front 4 is very solid now and DaQuan & Shaquille deserve a chunk of the credit.  Our LBs are playing better and our D is more physical.

[NoSaint]

26 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

 

Like everyone else, I was very disappointed with Mckenzie's play, but considering how clutch he has been for us in the past I'm willing to give him another week to prove yesterday was due to lingering concussion symptoms. 

has he been that clutch in the past? He’s had a few bad games this year and was benched this year

 

sure, he had made some plays but he’s an nfl wr - he should make plays

6 minutes ago, Lost said:

I dunno, I don't think KC got any worse from last year.  They have a good rookie class in McDuffie and Sky Moore among others.  

 

yea but that’s talking the difference between a Rousseau or basham and a von Miller.

 

those rookies may get there but tyreek is an absolute star generational type of talent and you need those to win on the biggest stages consistently 

Edited October 17, 2022 by NoSaint

[Donuts and Doritos]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I tend to agree from the standpoint that Hill / Kelce were an elite dual threat. Kelce remains an elite single threat and was a monster for the Bills to deal with.

 

Mahomes, maybe like Josh is at his best when he goes off script.  Josh clearly looks for Diggs as a 1st choice but I would argue he also makes use of others.  Mahomes either has not developed that chemistry or it has not worked out for him so far this season.

 

I do wonder like many around here if McKenzie’s playing time drops simply because he does not seem to play as well off script.  Shakir may be prone to rookie mistakes but has also displayed a unique set of abilities.  I think after the bye Lil’dirty will be relegated to return duties.

 

The margin between these teams is soo close. If KC's interest in OBJ is real & he joins, that could swing it their way come playoff time. Bills may want to consider signing OBJ just to keep him off KC.

[That's No Moon]

5 minutes ago, Lost said:

I dunno, I don't think KC got any worse from last year.  They have a good rookie class in McDuffie and Sky Moore among others.  

Less explosive for sure. I know ju ju had a nice day but a lot of that production was one catch and run with some terrible tackling. It's not the same thing as Hill taking a 3 yard pass to the house. Smith-Schuster doesn't put the fear of God in you. Plus Hill's not there to worry about returning kicks which changes field position. The KO team did a nice job hemming Pacheco in and making KC earn an additional first down several times.

 

You aren't going to pitch shut outs against them but making them be more methodical has been the strat for a couple years and it's easier to do now. That's doesn't mean easy. Just easier.

[US Egg]

Last three AFC Championship games, 2019 SB champs, have Mahomes and Kelce, they will be hanging around awhile.

 

They are still a “king of the mountain” type team. No doubt, they know a capable lion is on there too waiting to pounce.

[Fetou]

They're a little deeper into the QB contract right? Our flexibility will also start to wane and we will begin losing talent in the next few years. They definitely need to go for it all this year as the depth is pretty special

[Shortchaz]

I think we are clearly better now. We are a 7-10 point favorite versus KC on a neutral site or home 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

47 minutes ago, Success said:

First, I have all kinds of respect for KC, and they & the Bills are definitely 1b and 1a.

 

But the Bills are better.  Even though it just came down to a couple of plays yesterday & we could have easily lost, we're the better overall team now, on both sides of the ball.  In the offseason, we built up the unit that was always vexing for us when facing Mahomes, and we now have the pass rush that was so needed for years against him.  It made the difference yesterday in getting those stops that we couldn't get in the playoff game.  The secondary is also better, even with our best player in that unit still being out.

 

KC is worse. Still one of the best teams in the NFL - but losing Hill was a big, big deal...at least for the Bills. It was always the Kelce/Hill combo that was too difficult for us to defend.  Kelce is still getting his, but without that big play threat that Hill always represented, that team is just easier for us to get stops against.

 

All that said, of course they could still beat us in the playoffs.  Yesterday was close - but I also felt like the Bills made a bunch of mistakes that kept it close.  The fact that we now have the inside track for homefield could make all the difference.  I love our chances if the rematch is in Buffalo.

 

Kelce got his because we took Milano off him to spy mahomes…it was really the mahomes/Kelce/hill trio that made it all work. Their receivers honestly made 100% of the tough contested catches in huge spots that game and they still lost.  I wouldn’t expect those guys to make nearly that many plays in an average game.  I feel pretty confident if we see them again

[Bills2022]

 

The addition of Miller is huge.  The loss of Hill is just as huge, even if they say it isn't.    I wasn't even worried at the end of the game yesterday. I wasn't sure if Miller would make a play, but I knew Tyreek wouldn't.  That guy terrified me.  No other talent like him in the NFL.