The Bills have owned TEs this season. Now comes Kelce.

[Rubes]

Like him or not, a nice article from Tim Graham over at The Athletic.

 

How the Bills plan to tackle their next tight end challenge: Travis Kelce

 

A couple excerpts:

Quote

 

Through five games, Buffalo ranks first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends while having guarded three of the NFL’s most-targeted. Buffalo also is among the last 10 defenses not to have let a tight end score.

Tight ends are averaging 7.0 targets, 4.2 catches, 33.8 yards and 2.4 first downs a game against the Bills.

The average NFL defense is surrendering 6.8 targets, 4.7 catches, 48.3 yards and 2.5 first downs, though further context makes the Bills’ stinginess remarkable.

 

Quote

 

Even once Rob Gronkowski mercifully left the conference, Buffalo over the past couple seasons has had problems stopping the likes of Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry and Jacob Hollister.

As you’d imagine, higher-profile tight ends such as Kelce, Gesicki and Darren Waller have had gargantuan games.

How have the Bills deployed their defense differently to improve?

Poyer, Milano and Johnson each delivered the same answer.

“Nothing,” Milano said. “I don’t know if there’s anything specific. We haven’t been doubling anybody or game-planning.

 

 

Can the Bills contain him? They haven't so far...

 

Quote

In Kelce’s past four games against Buffalo — a regular-season and playoff game each of the past two years — he has 41 targets, 32 receptions, 336 yards and six TDs.

 

I hope they continue their current success...

 

[Alphadawg7]

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Rubes]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

 

Very logical. I just hope you're right!

 

[TBBills]

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

[dorquemada]

Just now, TBBills said:

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

 

Agreed.  Disrupt his timing, hopefully enough to let Von cause Kermit some happy feet

[Rc2catch]

He’s the focal point of the offense. 
I thought the raiders were kinda smart to put Ferrell out wide to try and jam him. He got a penalty lol but I still liked the idea. 
I’d love to see buffalo send Rousseau around to follow him and try and jam him at the line. (Of course if they practiced it and Rousseau could do the job) 

He can jam Kelce and then either rush or spy Mahomes. Pass rush is great and all but I think we know that ball is coming out pretty quick. And every game I can remember Mahomes has gotten easy first down runs escaping the pocket with no spy. 

[Big Turk]

And then along comes Mary...

 

 

[CSBill]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

And then along comes Mary...

 

Cool song

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I’d love to see our “elite” TE make some plays that impact the game …

[pigpen65]

All comes down to getting a rush without blitzing. 

[Haslett_Stomp]

IIRC Siran Neal was instrumental in keeping Kelce in check in the first KC game last year.  It will be interesting to see whether they leverage the same strategy for this game.  I believe Tre White was shadowing Hill for most of that game.

[Coach Tuesday]

58 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

He’s the focal point of the offense. 
I thought the raiders were kinda smart to put Ferrell out wide to try and jam him. He got a penalty lol but I still liked the idea. 
I’d love to see buffalo send Rousseau around to follow him and try and jam him at the line. (Of course if they practiced it and Rousseau could do the job) 

He can jam Kelce and then either rush or spy Mahomes. Pass rush is great and all but I think we know that ball is coming out pretty quick. And every game I can remember Mahomes has gotten easy first down runs escaping the pocket with no spy. 

The Ferrell play was amazing - he basically clocked Kelce in the face at the snap!

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Its a different game this year.  With no Tyreek Hill, the Bills can put a heavier focus on Kelce.  And with how well Edmunds and Milano have been playing this year too, I think we will see Kelce kept a little more under control this time around.  

 

End of the day though, Kelce is not only elite, but maybe the best ever at his position...he is at least top 3.  So still won't surprise me if he has a good day.  But in the past, it was getting burned by both Kelce and Hill that hurt us...now with Hill gone, if Kelce still has a strong game, we aren't as vulnerable as we were previously because we are better equipped to handle the rest of their weapons.  

 

 

 

I don't mind Kelce having catches on Sunday as long as we don't give him anything deep. He is averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career this year which I think is partly that teams are playing their defense a little higher without the threat of Hill to burn them. Let Kelce catch the odd check down, convert the odd 1st down, but don't let him beat you down the seam. See if Mahomes can sustain long drives dinking and dunking... because when he isn't throwing to Kelce he is throwing to kinda average WRs.

[Simon Says]

The addition of Miller allows the Bills to rush just 4 defenders. That leaves more coverage on Kelce

[PrimeTime101]

Bump him on the line EVERY time. no clean releases with second tier help at the 7+ yards from a fs. then you have to man on the ends with another safety deep.  if the QB was not named Mahomes, then I would say easy. but it is what it is.

[mjt328]

Interesting numbers.  They haven't exactly played a bunch of scrubs at the position either. 

 

Mark Andrews is possibly the next best TE in the NFL after Travis Kelce.

The others are Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth.  All guys capable of making plays in the passing game.

 

As I said in another post... there is a domino effect when you upgrade the D-Line.  Not only are they getting a better pass rush and more stops in the run game, but they are really freeing up the Linebackers at the second level.  When Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson (we can throw him into this discussion) don't have to worry about what is happening at the line of scrimmage, it gives them an extra step in coverage.  

 

[BigDingus]

1 hour ago, Rubes said:

Tight ends are averaging 7.0 targets, 4.2 catches, 33.8 yards and 2.4 first downs a game against the Bills.

The average NFL defense is surrendering 6.8 targets, 4.7 catches, 48.3 yards and 2.5 first downs, though further context makes the Bills’ stinginess remarkable.

 

So they average about 15 less yards, & basically everything else is the same. That's nice, but it's hardly indicative of some huge success figuring out TE's.

 

And we all know Kelce is just a different kind of TE anyway. One of the best pass-catching TE's in history, just under Tony Gonzales, Jason Witten & Gronk (Chiefs are so lucky to have had 2 of those guys), and he's been great against us.

 

2020: 

Reg. Season - 5 rec / 65 yards / 2 TD's

Playoffs - 13 rec / 118 yards / 2 TD's

 

2021:

Reg. Season - 6 rec / 57 yards / 1 TD

Playoffs - 8 rec / 96 yards / 1 TD

 

So I guess we can be happy we cut his TD's down from 2 x game to 1 x game! But realistically, Kelce will likely get his. We just have to hope others don't step up & that we can at least make it difficult for him in the redzone. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, mjt328 said:

Interesting numbers.  They haven't exactly played a bunch of scrubs at the position either. 

 

Mark Andrews is possibly the next best TE in the NFL after Travis Kelce.

The others are Tyler Higbee, Austin Hooper, Mike Gesicki and Pat Freiermuth.  All guys capable of making plays in the passing game.

 

As I said in another post... there is a domino effect when you upgrade the D-Line.  Not only are they getting a better pass rush and more stops in the run game, but they are really freeing up the Linebackers at the second level.  When Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson (we can throw him into this discussion) don't have to worry about what is happening at the line of scrimmage, it gives them an extra step in coverage.  

 

 

Giesicki is kinda a forgotten man in the Fins offense.

[Wayne Cubed]

Kelce is going to get his, it’s crazy to think he won’t. But to @GunnerBill point don’t let him beat you big. 

[ChrisWatson#21]

1 hour ago, TBBills said:

He is the best TE in the league and will be in the HoF... need to wreck him at the LoS

I still can’t believe that in the 13 second debacle not 1 Bills coach told the defense to hold him and Tyreek at the LOS and trade the 5 yard penalty for 5 seconds off the clock🙄