What We Learned Week 5

[corta765]

NFL: The big news out of the weekend was the awful roughing the passer calls that happened in the NE-DET, TB-ATL, & KC-Raiders games. It has looked quite obvious that the NFL after Tua got knocked out on Thursday night two weeks ago has now over reacted by instructing officials to be hyper vigilant in their calls. This has now caused officials to be overly sensitive and spotters in general to be overly sensitive with hits on QBs. This is a problem. The issue with Tua was not the hit by Milano nor the hit against CIN. Milano's hit was a push that had a bad finish due to momentum and how Tua landed. The CIN play was a text book tackle and Tua's unwillingness to go door created a rag doll situation. The league as it has with many issues has gone too far in the name of safety and it is caused some really bad calls to result. This entire mess would've been a non issue had the NFL/Phins held Tua out from returning against Buffalo. Does he still get hurt against CIN? Maybe. But at least the guy wouldn't have played the rest of the Buffalo game when he clearly was hurt which perhaps allows a better situation for him vs CIN. The answer to this whole situation is common sense, a 7 year old would've said hold Tua out after how bad he looked against the Bills getting up. We do not need refs playing it overly safe on calls that are not needed or Bridgewater being taken out against NYJ just because for a split second he moved weird when you could easily see he was just tired. I want to believe this is small blip and things will even out, but the NFL is notorious for swinging fast the opposite way when things go bad in a situation so I am not holding my breath we do not see more of this.

 

AFC

BAL: Defense finally got it going but Lamar was off on quite a few throws that would've been big gains or a TD. Now is the time to work out the kinks and if the Ravens can they will be far more dangerous.

BUF: Take every second of this team in and appreciate what we have. This feels like a special season and after so much pain and suffering seasons like this are the reward and not to be take for granted.

CIN: Tough loss, but they seem to be getting it together slowly but surely. At the same point the offense looks to be figured out a bit and it is their D leading the way.

CLE: The talent on the roster is there and Brissett is doing an admirable job at QB. Chubb has been superb all season and if they can ride him until Watson comes back they might have playoff hopes as the AFC looks more open then before.

DEN:  Russel Wilson is getting deserved criticism and he did miss Hamler bad on 4th down. He also had two TD's dropped throughout the game that would've made this a non issue. Wilson needs to be better, but luck has not been on their side either right now. Regardless Hackett needs to find 5-7 plays in SEA that were Wilson's favorite and put those in his lineup to get it going
HOU: Lovie Smith has this defense chugging to a point they are in any game right now and got victory #1 Sunday. A bend not break defense held the Jags to two FG's and got an INT in the redzone as rookie Derek Stingley got his 1st INT of his career for HOU.

IND: The Colts defense had a very good day against DEN as old "friend" Stephon Gilmore had a game turning INT and game ending pass breakup. Still Matt Ryan looks atrocious and the Colts as an offense are averaging a paltry 13.8 ppg and 333 ypg good for just 22nd overall.

JAX: Another winnable game which Lawrence had turnovers that killed their drives and couldn't finish when they are in the redzone. The hardest thing for the Jags is the division is wide open and winnable, but you can't lose at home to Houston like that when the schedule toughens up soon.
KC: The offense is cruising right now as they can pick their poison up front. On the flip side the Chiefs defense is the weakest it has been since 2017 as their secondary is getting torched deep as they are allowing 255 ypg (23rd in the NFL) and allowing 25 ppg. As the they found out against the Colts when your offense is slowed you need to be able to play some defense and this could be their one weakness long term.

LAC: Gritty win that helps give some separation from other AFC teams while getting Herbert through another week without doing everything as he recovers. With Ekeler running well and DEN/SEA back to back at home, they have a chance to stack some wins as their players heal up into their bye.

MIA: Divisions are not won 3 weeks in. I think Miami is a good team and playoff team, but they also are not world beaters and the attrition of the season is here. Bridgewater shouldn't have been held so fast as that really hamstrung Miami, but your defense can't allow 40 either as the Jets took advantage of turnovers and penalties to make their offenses life easier.

NE: Bailey Zappe had a solid game for QB as they ran for over 176 yards against a porus Lions defense. Rhamondre Stevenson went for 161 yards and will see the Lions share of carries now with Damien Harris done for the year.

NYJ: The Jets are 3-2 for the first time in forever and Zach Wilson has had two solid weeks at QB. The Packers will provide a much tougher litmus test for what this Jets team has going for it, but the fact this is even being said speakers volumes for airplane people. Keep feeding Bryce Hall NY.

PIT: Steeler fans awoke to reality on Sunday of what many fanbases have lived with for a long term, when you are not good watching football can be really painful. Pickett actually wasn't bad, but it will be some time before they come back to being at the top which might be a tough adjustment for many steeler faithful.

Raiders: 7-1 last year in one score games 1-4 in 2022. Absolutely gutting losses this year though that have basically taken the playoffs off the board baring a miracle. Josh Jacobs has been awesome though and he needs to be utilized more as it brings out the best in Carr.

TEN: They are back on top of the division by riding Henry and as long as he goes they go. If Carolina does sell off players DJ Moore would be a huge fit here to help the passing attack.

 

NFC:

ARZ- In probably their best effort all year they pushed the Eagles until a missed game tying field goal. In an early playoff fate matchup they go to Seattle and if they can walk out with a win they will be 3-3 and get Hopkins back which all things considered isn't too bad.

ATL- Bills fans have been there where playing Brady your boys give it your all and get screwed on a bad call. The Falcons are playing week in week out wayy above their weight class, but this loss was a gut punch when a potential division lead slipped away like that.

CAR-  The expected happened with Rhule fired after going 11-27 but now the real works starts. This is a franchise that desperately needs a vision and leader to chart a course for them. Additionally they have some pieces many teams will want, this season has a lot of pain coming but they need to finally structure for a full rebuild and maximize their draft capital.

CHI- Fields had his best effort of the season and the Bears actually had a 22-21 lead in the 4th before Minnesota finished them off.  Chicago needs more games like this from Fields to show that he is making tangible signs of progress.

DAL- Dallas defense is dominating up front and that is slowing down so many offenses. Micah Parsons is the DPOY at this point as he has become beyond disruptive and a true game changer. DAL is at PHI on Sunday Night and it will be a great test to see how their defense does against that PHI offense.

DET- If you see a Lions fan give them a hug. The hype and excitement of the season has quickly drained down to the bad for Lions fans as they are 1-4 and the offense that was at least scoring in bunches just got shut out. Campbell is a great rah rah guy, but the results are similar in year 2 and it is more and more feeling like same old same old.

GB- The Packers only had the ball four times in the second half to the tune of two punts, loss on downs, and a sack on the final play of the game. Every time the offense starts looking better they follow up with a game like this and Rodgers looks incredibly off right now.

LAR- The defense has its issues but the offense is a mess with the offensive line an ez pass and injuries at the play maker spots. They are really starting to run out of rope here even in the NFC and it is fair to question what Matt Stafford's performance has been this year.

MIN- Since their last Super Bowl loss in 1976 the Vikings have made the NFC Title game every 7 seasons or so. Their last appearance was the 2017 season so this is only year 6, but why does this feel like a year when they find their way back only for more misery at the hands of Cousins.

NOLA- Chris Olave is going to walk away with offensive rookie of year at the rate he is going pacing for 85 rec 1300 yds and 7 TDs. 

NYG- Smart game mgmt, utilizing your players properly, and a little luck go a long way. 4-1 and 3-1 in conference the G-Man can go .500 the rest of the way (6-6) and they will make the playoffs. With games against WSH 2x, SEA, HOU, DET, and IND they control their destiny at this point (good luck Daboll)

PHI- The Cards give the Eagles a scare and Hurts was finally brought down a bit as he was held to 239 yds passing on the day. But 61 yds rushing and 2 TDs made the difference on 15 carries for a player who has elevated himself big time this year.

SEA- Geno Smith is defying all expectations with another 3 TD performance and good QB play that is giving the Hawks a chance week in week out. Hard to know if he stays in SEA after this year but someone is taking a flyer on him next year to help push them towards the playoffs... its probably IND isn't it.

SF- The 49ers are tied with the Bills in pts allowed with just 61 on the season. Jimmy G has been steady and the offense in general is complimenting the defense quite well to be a sledgehammer of a team to play.

TB- Brady and crew know they escaped Sunday with a win. Leonard Fournette has been a revelation as he is on pace for 1612 yards combined and 10 TDs this year.

WSH- The head coach through the QB under the bus, garbage truck, and presidential motorcade as another Wentz turnover cost them. Carson Wentz is putting up a hilariously good bad season that hasn't been seen since Jameis Winstons "legendary" 30-30 (TD/INT) season in 2019, maybe Wentz can be the second in the club. Seriously though maybe Geno Smith or Jimmy G come here in 2023 as solid if not unspectacular QB play without turnovers would have this team at 3-2.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, corta765 said:

KC: The offense is cruising right now as they can pick their poison up front. On the flip side the Chiefs defense is the weakest it has been since 2017 as their secondary is getting torched deep as they are allowing 255 ypg (23rd in the NFL) and allowing 25 ppg. As the they found out against the Colts when your offense is slowed you need to be able to play some defense and this could be their one weakness long term.

 

I mentioned repeatedly their secondary took a big hit due to "cap" issues.  Yes, posters still believe there is no cap.

Teams that can handle their DL rush with a good QB can beat them.

[corta765]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I mentioned repeatedly their secondary took a big hit due to "cap" issues.  Yes, posters still believe there is no cap.

Teams that can handle their DL rush with a good QB can beat them.

 

Agreed. I thought losing Tyron Mathieu was huge as he is a close to elite level safety and can hide mistakes their CB make. They don't have anyone elite in the secondary at CB or SAF now so if that front 7 doesn't do its job they have issues. With that said not many teams can take advantage and if KC's offense is clicking it kinda doesn't matter.

 

And yea cap matters, cap matters big time. I have to believe Beane watched Hamlin at safety and felt better if Poyer ends up walking. Poyer is amazing but there will be losses and if you have a guy who can replace at high level cheaper I get the move even if I really don't want him gone.

[ColoradoBills]

20 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Agreed. I thought losing Tyron Mathieu was huge as he is a close to elite level safety and can hide mistakes their CB make. They don't have anyone elite in the secondary at CB or SAF now so if that front 7 doesn't do its job they have issues. With that said not many teams can take advantage and if KC's offense is clicking it kinda doesn't matter.

 

And yea cap matters, cap matters big time. I have to believe Beane watched Hamlin at safety and felt better if Poyer ends up walking. Poyer is amazing but there will be losses and if you have a guy who can replace at high level cheaper I get the move even if I really don't want him gone.

 

Agree with it all.  Poyer is not the only guy that Beane has to consider the cost.  It's a constant and challenging tightrope.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Agree with it all.  Poyer is not the only guy that Beane has to consider the cost.  It's a constant and challenging tightrope.

 

Also age. I hate the hoodie but he did excel at letting guys go when they got to a certain point. We are not going to be able to sign everyone and the last few weeks have shown depth and a strong front 7 has worked well. If it is Oliver/Edmunds vs Poyer and one of those two I am leaning towards Oliver/Edmunds and letting Hamlin/Johnson fully get a shot OR drafting a new guy. Again I love Poyer and everything he has meant to the Bills, he is also 32 next year going on his 11th year. Like the godfather it is not personal it is just business.

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Also age. I hate the hoodie but he did excel at letting guys go when they got to a certain point. We are not going to be able to sign everyone and the last few weeks have shown depth and a strong front 7 has worked well. If it is Oliver/Edmunds vs Poyer and one of those two I am leaning towards Oliver/Edmunds and letting Hamlin/Johnson fully get a shot OR drafting a new guy. Again I love Poyer and everything he has meant to the Bills, he is also 32 next year going on his 11th year. Like the godfather it is not personal it is just business.

 

I have to say the obvious.  I don't want to give up any of these players.  I just can't pick and choose what is best.

There just is too much to calculate.  I have to trust Beane to do it.