Coach55's Parity Calculator - Predictive index/Power Rankings

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, Bandito said:

Now they face a REAL test on Sunday. We will see if they are pretenders or championship caliber at about 7:30pm est

 

That won't  be determined until January.

[Coach55]

Week 6 results are in.  My predictive calculator went 8-6 against the spread (8-5 if you throw out Miami, which I mentioned would be inaccurate given the QB situation).  1-0 with my pick of the week.  Updated top 10 power rankings:

1.  Buffalo (0)

2. Philadelphia (+2)

3. Baltimore (-1)

4. Cincinnati (-1)

5. Kansas City (0)

6. NY Jets (+5)

7. New England (+5)

8. Dallas (0)

9. Tampa Bay (+1)

10. Miami (-4)

 

This weeks predictions (in order of quality):

Bal (Pick of the week), NYJ, Was, Cin, NE, Dal, Jax, Ten, SF, Hou, LAC

 

The other 3 games I am not providing a pick as my predictive calculator is within 1/2 point of the spread.  

Edited October 18, 2022 by Coach55

[Shortchaz]

On 10/18/2022 at 10:24 AM, Coach55 said:

Week 6 results are in.  My predictive calculator went 8-6 against the spread (8-5 if you throw out Miami, which I mentioned would be inaccurate given the QB situation).  1-0 with my pick of the week.  Updated top 10 power rankings:

1.  Buffalo (0)

2. Philadelphia (+2)

3. Baltimore (-1)

4. Cincinnati (-1)

5. Kansas City (0)

6. NY Jets (+5)

7. New England (+5)

8. Dallas (0)

9. Tampa Bay (+1)

10. Miami (-4)

 

This weeks predictions (in order of quality):

Bal (Pick of the week), NYJ, Was, Cin, NE, Dal, Jax, Ten, SF, Hou, LAC

 

The other 3 games I am not providing a pick as my predictive calculator is within 1/2 point of the spread.  

Pretty solid 

[Mikie2times]

Thank you OP. This isn't a new model or anything, the concept is how most power ranking systems work. That doesn't mean I don't applaud you for doing it. I think it's a really neat project and I look forward to seeing your work. As for the guy that hoped this could hit at a 60% clip ATS? No model has ever come close. Not remotely. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 10/18/2022 at 7:24 AM, Coach55 said:

 

 

This weeks predictions (in order of quality):

Bal (Pick of the week), NYJ, Was, Cin, NE, Dal, Jax, Ten, SF, Hou, LAC

 

The other 3 games I am not providing a pick as my predictive calculator is within 1/2 point of the spread.  

 

Thanks for sharing this. It was looking really good as I was tallying the covers until I got to SF, Hou and LAC.

 

You're 5-5 this week with NE set to be the tie breaker.

 

NE -8 (Wed Line) is my stone cold lock of the week. But I would take them at whatever the line is now too.  Bears are going to be very hard pressed to get to double digits in this game is my thinking.

 

 

On the plus side you would also have a shot at a 4-1 week pending tomorrow's result if you took the first 5 games in order of quality. That is good to know for super contest picking.

[Nelius]

Yo Airseven, tell us more about that Tampa Bay love. This felt like a genuinely awful week of football that somehow just reinforced how awesome Buffalo is

 

Cool stuff Coach55

[Shortchaz]

Wonder if it works better if it’s straight money line bet 🤔

[Coach55]

Quick update - I missed posting a few weeks.  This damn work thing gets in the way.  Current rankings through week 9:

1. BUF

2. PHL

3. BAL (+1)

4. KC (-1)

5. CIN (+1)

6. DAL (-1)

7. NYJ (+1)

8. MIN (-1)

9. NE (+2)

10. MIA 

 

Predictive index results so far (vs the spread):

Wk 6 - 8-6

Wk 7 - 5-6

Wk 8 - 6-6

Wk 9 - 9-2 (note both losses were pushes)

 

Running Total - 28-20

 

This weeks picks w/ Vegas Spreads - CAR (+3), TB (-2.5), KC (-9.5), NYG (-6.5), PIT (+2.5), CHI (-3), MIA (-4), BUF (-6.5), TEN (-3), IND (+6.5), ARZ (+3), SF (-7), PHI (-10.5).

 

Note my pick of the weeks are 1-3.  This week I have 2 - PIT and PHI.  [These model to the highest discrepancy against Vegas odds]

[Coach55]

Power rankings thru 10:

1. BUF

2. PHI

3. BAL

4. KC

5. CIN

6. DAL

7. MIN (+1)

8. NYJ (-1)

9. MIA (+1)

10. NE (-1)

 

Point of note - last weeks picks came in 9-4 vs. spread per my previous post, however, I realized I had the ARZ/SEA score inverted in the system.  This would have thrown out the TB/SEA game and CHI/DET game.   Thus, removing those 2 games for the correction would have made the predictive record 8-3 for the week.   Thus through 5 weeks, the system is now 36-23 (61%)

 

This weeks picks w/ Vegas Spreads - TEN (+3), NO (-3.5), BUF (-9.5), PHI (-7.5), NYJ (+3.5), NYG (-3.0), BAL (-12.5), CHI (+3), DEN (-2.5), MIN (+1.5), ARZ (+8).

 

Pick of the weeks are 2-4.  This week's pick is ARZ (+8).