Week 6: Bills at CHIEFS 10/16 4:25pm

[Big Turk]

Wow...Bills Net Drive stats are otherworldly.

 

Almost 6 yards better than the 2nd place Eagles who are more than 6 yards better than the 3rd place Chiefs.  This is absurd!  Bills basically average almost 19 more yards per drive than their opponents.

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[newcam2012]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Bills likely can bust some edge runs if they use those...they are actually very good at them.  The issue is they like running up the middle too often which they suck at.  

 

Bills rank 9th in NFL in Average Line Yards on Left End runs, 7th in Right End Runs and 17th in Right Tackle Runs.  Left Tackle runs are not good at 30th and Middle runs are dead last at 32nd.

 

However, that actually plays into he strength of the Chiefs on run D as they excel at stopping outside runs, ranking 5th best on Left End runs and 8th best on Right End runs.  Their weakness is Left Tackle/Middle runs where they rank 29th and 26th. So basically the Bills will have to be better at what they do well than the Chiefs are at what they do well in terms of running.

No doubt the game is going to be a chess match. Back and forth and lots of adjustments I suspect. I think both coaches will be aggressive on offense. I think we will see several 4th plays. I think Reid is a very good coach but he does make mistakes. He made a huge mistake going for 2 instead of kicking the extra point. Then dummy McDaniel goes for 2 with 4 minutes to go. Coaching can make a difference in this game. 

[FilthyBeast]

43 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Double Kelce win game. 

 

Teams have been doing that all year and it hasn't worked.

 

And whether you call it lucky or not all Mahomes has to do is literally throw it up for grabs when Kelce is in the vicinity and he'll come up with the ball 99 out 100 time which is essentially what happened last night on a few of his 4 TD receptions in the redzone.

[Special K]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

 He made a huge mistake going for 2 instead of kicking the extra point. Then dummy McDaniel goes for 2 with 4 minutes to go. Coaching can make a difference in this game. 

 

I didn't understand either of those choices. I'm sure it has something to do with "analytics", but when these coaches slavishly follow the analytics no matter what, its borderline insane, IMO.

[ArdmoreRyno]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Teams have been doing that all year and it hasn't worked.

 

And whether you call it lucky or not all Mahomes has to do is literally throw it up for grabs when Kelce is in the vicinity and he'll come up with the ball 99 out 100 time which is essentially what happened last night on a few of his 4 TD receptions in the redzone.

 

Kelce is a freak of nature. 

[wjag]

My early thoughts on this game after watching both clubs this weekend.

 

1. In case KC forgot what Gabe did last year, they got a stark reminder this weekend.  And I don't think it was an accident.  They now have to figure out how to stop both Gabe and Diggs.  That should open up opportunities for the supporting cast: Knox, Slot receiver (who plays), and backs out of back field.

2. I think KC has a better OLINE (1-5) and better DLINE (1-4). But I think Buffalo's DLINE depth (1-8) is far superior.  Need to keep guys fresh

3. KC will try and run the ball.  For reals.  It will be up to Phillips and Oliver to shut that down.

4. This will be the game our junior varsity backfield gets exposed.  Mahomes will run around long enough for them to lose contain.  Much like he did last night.

5. I suspect both teams are going to play two-high safeties and force a lot of underneath throws.

6. KC secondary was exposed as well last night.  If OLINE can give Josh a second or two more, it will be the difference in this game.

7. Milano has to be the guy on Kelce.

8. I think I worry more about McKittrick than MEH.  McKittrick genuinely looked fast last night.

9. KC crowd noise gives them a distinct advantage.  Oakland-LA-Oakland-Las Vegas did manage to silence them until the RTP call.  

10. I really don't think the Bills will be able to run through the tackles last night the way Jacobs did.  

[78thealltimegreat]

36 minutes ago, co_springs_billsfan said:

How did NBC not choose this for SNF?

Cause it is Cowboys/ Eagles and ironically that is just as big a game now as this one

[Big Turk]

13 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

No doubt the game is going to be a chess match. Back and forth and lots of adjustments I suspect. I think both coaches will be aggressive on offense. I think we will see several 4th plays. I think Reid is a very good coach but he does make mistakes. He made a huge mistake going for 2 instead of kicking the extra point. Then dummy McDaniel goes for 2 with 4 minutes to go. Coaching can make a difference in this game. 

 

For sure...going on 4th down is almost going to be expected in this game, maybe even from your own side of the field, which we see happening more and more now even early in games.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, wjag said:

My early thoughts on this game after watching both clubs this weekend.

 

1. In case KC forgot what Gabe did last year, they got a stark reminder this weekend.  And I don't think it was an accident.  They now have to figure out how to stop both Gabe and Diggs.  That should open up opportunities for the supporting cast: Knox, Slot receiver (who plays), and backs out of back field.

2. I think KC has a better OLINE (1-5) and better DLINE (1-4). But I think Buffalo's DLINE depth (1-8) is far superior.  Need to keep guys fresh

3. KC will try and run the ball.  For reals.  It will be up to Phillips and Oliver to shut that down.

4. This will be the game our junior varsity backfield gets exposed.  Mahomes will run around long enough for them to lose contain.  Much like he did last night.

5. I suspect both teams are going to play two-high safeties and force a lot of underneath throws.

6. KC secondary was exposed as well last night.  If OLINE can give Josh a second or two more, it will be the difference in this game.

7. Milano has to be the guy on Kelce.

8. I think I worry more about McKittrick than MEH.  McKittrick genuinely looked fast last night.

9. KC crowd noise gives them a distinct advantage.  Oakland-LA-Oakland-Las Vegas did manage to silence them until the RTP call.  

10. I really don't think the Bills will be able to run through the tackles last night the way Jacobs did.  

 

I am not so sure the KC crowd gives them an advantage. The Bills are used to it. They beat them badly in the regular season at Arrowhead. In the playoff game Allen rallied the Bills twice in the 4th quarter to retake the lead when they were screaming as loud as they could. They will be loud but I don't think the Bills will care.

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, wjag said:

My early thoughts on this game after watching both clubs this weekend.

 

1. In case KC forgot what Gabe did last year, they got a stark reminder this weekend.  And I don't think it was an accident.  They now have to figure out how to stop both Gabe and Diggs.  That should open up opportunities for the supporting cast: Knox, Slot receiver (who plays), and backs out of back field.

2. I think KC has a better OLINE (1-5) and better DLINE (1-4). But I think Buffalo's DLINE depth (1-8) is far superior.  Need to keep guys fresh

3. KC will try and run the ball.  For reals.  It will be up to Phillips and Oliver to shut that down.

4. This will be the game our junior varsity backfield gets exposed.  Mahomes will run around long enough for them to lose contain.  Much like he did last night.

5. I suspect both teams are going to play two-high safeties and force a lot of underneath throws.

6. KC secondary was exposed as well last night.  If OLINE can give Josh a second or two more, it will be the difference in this game.

7. Milano has to be the guy on Kelce.

8. I think I worry more about McKittrick than MEH.  McKittrick genuinely looked fast last night.

9. KC crowd noise gives them a distinct advantage.  Oakland-LA-Oakland-Las Vegas did manage to silence them until the RTP call.  

10. I really don't think the Bills will be able to run through the tackles last night the way Jacobs did.  

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

[78thealltimegreat]

I honestly ain’t really nervous for this game. Last night was the second time the Chiefs escaped a loss if Adams simply gets that second foot down that was basically a gimme for Carlson with the way he was kicking.

Chiefs D looks the same as last year their corners are still highly susceptible to double moves. 
Bills front 4 with Oliver, Phillips, Rousseau, and Von should be able to hold their own and force Patty into 10-15 play drives. 
I think we pull away in the 4th quarter and win 34-24. As I just don’t think this Chiefs D can stop Allen when he goes into John Wick mode. 

[hemma]

I keep reading that KC has a better run game. Pfft

 

buf - 115 for 582, 5.1 avg , 116.4 per game

kc - 128 for 571, 4.5 avg, 114.2 per game

 

Mahomes had scrambles of 7 for 69 last time out.  Keep him corralled and we’ll be ok.

[78thealltimegreat]

7 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

KC just lost to Colts 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, hemma said:

I keep reading that KC has a better run game. Pfft

 

buf - 115 for 582, 5.1 avg , 116.4 per game

kc - 128 for 571, 4.5 avg, 114.2 per game

 

Mahomes had scrambles of 7 for 69 last time out.  Keep him corralled and we’ll be ok.

 

KC is 18th in yardage and around 19th in rushing attempts.  

[Cray51]

KC tackles were disrupted by Crosby and Jones last night.  Mahomes was forced to role out a LOT.  Miller and Rousseau will be vital to slowing KC down.

 

Hardman is banged up. Skye Moore is quick, but he is a rookie.  Valdez Scantling doesn't impress me.  Juju hasn't been impactful to date.

 

Kelce is the key.  Milano is better than any LB on the Raiders.  Need to have him active in disrupting Kelce on 3rd down and at the goal line.

 

KC defense is not above average.  Bills can put up 35+.  Bills D will be key to make sure KC doesn't match that pace

[Stank_Nasty]

6 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Your points 2, 3, 4 and 10 are why KC is the better team and I have a hard time seeing the Bills beating them, especially in a january playoff game in BUF or KC.

 

Beane has done a great job building depth on the DL, but we still don't have a true Chris Jones type of game wrecker in the middle. Yes Von Miller is still very good but Mahomes has proven he is a master of evading pressure from the edge and it's pressure up the middle that has been a problem for him and most QB's, including the worst game of his career in the SB against the Bucs a few years ago.

 

Bills offensive line is all about finesse and one of the reasons the Raiders fared well last night and had a chance to win is because they were able to run the ball effectively. I'm still not sure the Bills can do this consistently which will ultimately be their downfall again in the playoffs.

this is pure BS. the Bills average a full 60 more yards of offense per game and allow 13 less points per game on defense. All with a schedule thats been on par with the chiefs. while the chiefs have been barely escaping close games with wins and lost to an awful colts squad. take this crap outta here. Going into arrowhead and taking a win is always a tall task and the bills may very well lose because the Chiefs are a dang good team, but you're talking like a fool. 

3 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

KC just lost to Colts 

dudes talking out his rear end.... generally par for the course with him by this point in the year.

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, wjag said:

My early thoughts on this game after watching both clubs this weekend.

 

1. In case KC forgot what Gabe did last year, they got a stark reminder this weekend.  And I don't think it was an accident.  They now have to figure out how to stop both Gabe and Diggs.  That should open up opportunities for the supporting cast: Knox, Slot receiver (who plays), and backs out of back field.

2. I think KC has a better OLINE (1-5) and better DLINE (1-4). But I think Buffalo's DLINE depth (1-8) is far superior.  Need to keep guys fresh

3. KC will try and run the ball.  For reals.  It will be up to Phillips and Oliver to shut that down.

4. This will be the game our junior varsity backfield gets exposed.  Mahomes will run around long enough for them to lose contain.  Much like he did last night.

5. I suspect both teams are going to play two-high safeties and force a lot of underneath throws.

6. KC secondary was exposed as well last night.  If OLINE can give Josh a second or two more, it will be the difference in this game.

7. Milano has to be the guy on Kelce.

8. I think I worry more about McKittrick than MEH.  McKittrick genuinely looked fast last night.

9. KC crowd noise gives them a distinct advantage.  Oakland-LA-Oakland-Las Vegas did manage to silence them until the RTP call.  

10. I really don't think the Bills will be able to run through the tackles last night the way Jacobs did.  

 

I know you qualified it with (1-8), but through 5 games Bills allow 78 Rush Yards per game, with 16 sacks..  Chiefs, 84 Rush Yards per game, with 13 sacks. 

[Cray51]

Another thing - force KC to kick field goals.  Easier said than done, but they are having serious kicking woes and it showed last night.

[Logic]

 

[MiltonWaddams]

5 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

Another thing - force KC to kick field goals.  Easier said than done, but they are having serious kicking woes and it showed last night.

Based on how terrible their kickers have been without Butker and their understanding of how high-powered the Bills offense is, I wouldn't be surprised if KC goes for it on any 4th within the Bills 30 yard line. 3 points are going to mean something, but 7 points are going to be invaluable.