Week 6: Bills at CHIEFS 10/16 4:25pm

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You can’t talk about this around here…. 

 

It sucked for sure but now that we are well into the new season at 4-1 I put it behind it me. Can't change that game anyway but the Bills can certainly do something about this one.

[mjt328]

Here is the way I see it:

 

In 2020, the Chiefs were clearly the better team.  More talent and more experience.  I knew it going into both games (regular season and the playoffs), but hoped they would make enough mistakes for us to pull it out.  That didn't happen, and they solidly beat us both times.

 

Last year, I felt we pulled even.  Going into the first regular season matchup, I think we had more incentive to get that monkey off our back and played harder.  But the divisional playoff game was the definition of an evenly matched 50/50 game.

 

This year, the Bills are the superior team.  We have more talent on paper, and I've been more impressed with our performance over the first 5 games.  

 

In past years, I think Kansas City had the edge on offense.  Losing Tyreek Hill brings the two teams back to the same level.

- Quarterback play is about as even as you can get.  Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is a wash.

- Both have elite #1 receivers (Stefon Diggs vs. Travis Kelce).  The Chiefs have been stronger on the ground, but the Bills have more receiving weapons.

- O-Lines are both solid/above average, with some inconsistent streaks against elite D-Lines.

 

Where the Bills truly have the edge is on defense.  The Chiefs have some good individual players like Chris Jones and Frank Clark.  But overall, the Bills are way better on all three levels - D-Line, Linebackers and in the Secondary.  The Bills defense is currently ranked #1 in points against, #4 against the pass and #2 against the run.  For comparison, the Chiefs are ranked 23rd in points against, 24th against the pass and surprisingly 3rd against the run (despite getting totally gashed by Josh Jacobs on Monday night).

 

[Bray Wyatt]

We know Josh has seen Spagnuolo's defense a few years now, but we have yet to see Dorsey call a game against him. I am interested to see if he makes some changes. I always felt Spag's had a good plan against Daboll (he knew the new england style offense well) and slowed us down to start and Daboll was slow to adjust.  If we can get out of the gate fast, I think that could be the key.

[RichRiderBills]

27 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Here is the way I see it:

 

In 2020, the Chiefs were clearly the better team.  More talent and more experience.  I knew it going into both games (regular season and the playoffs), but hoped they would make enough mistakes for us to pull it out.  That didn't happen, and they solidly beat us both times.

 

Last year, I felt we pulled even.  Going into the first regular season matchup, I think we had more incentive to get that monkey off our back and played harder.  But the divisional playoff game was the definition of an evenly matched 50/50 game.

 

This year, the Bills are the superior team.  We have more talent on paper, and I've been more impressed with our performance over the first 5 games.  

 

In past years, I think Kansas City had the edge on offense.  Losing Tyreek Hill brings the two teams back to the same level.

- Quarterback play is about as even as you can get.  Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is a wash.

- Both have elite #1 receivers (Stefon Diggs vs. Travis Kelce).  The Chiefs have been stronger on the ground, but the Bills have more receiving weapons.

- O-Lines are both solid/above average, with some inconsistent streaks against elite D-Lines.

 

Where the Bills truly have the edge is on defense.  The Chiefs have some good individual players like Chris Jones and Frank Clark.  But overall, the Bills are way better on all three levels - D-Line, Linebackers and in the Secondary.  The Bills defense is currently ranked #1 in points against, #4 against the pass and #2 against the run.  For comparison, the Chiefs are ranked 23rd in points against, 24th against the pass and surprisingly 3rd against the run (despite getting totally gashed by Josh Jacobs on Monday night).

 

 

I liked this take even better when Thermal said it verbatim on one bills live a couple days ago.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

We know Josh has seen Spagnuolo's defense a few years now, but we have yet to see Dorsey call a game against him. I am interested to see if he makes some changes. I always felt Spag's had a good plan against Daboll (he knew the new england style offense well) and slowed us down to start and Daboll was slow to adjust.  If we can get out of the gate fast, I think that could be the key.

 

So last year week 4 our opening possessions in the first half went:

 

8 plays 75 yards TD

3 plays -14 yards PUNT

5 plays 75 yards TD

7 plays 62 yards FG

2 plays 68 yards TD

EOH

 

 

Last year playoffs:

13 plays 71 yards TD

9 plays 24 yards PUNT

3 plays 6 yards PUNT

7 plays 75 yards TD

 

 I am not sure where you see them starting slow, they scored TD's on both opening drives.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by Big Turk

[Ralonzo]

27 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

This year, the Bills are the superior team.  We have more talent on paper, and I've been more impressed with our performance over the first 5 games.  

 

In past years, I think Kansas City had the edge on offense.  Losing Tyreek Hill brings the two teams back to the same level.

- Quarterback play is about as even as you can get.  Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is a wash.

 

 

Guess who disagrees? Chiefs Planet and meth heads, but I repeat myself...

 

Quote

I wanna see Allen do it against an elite opponent against a better secondary unit than that of his own team

 

There isn't one.

 

Quote

and facing a better QB than himself.

 

There isn't one.

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Lol there are dolphins fans in that thread tweeting that Tua is better. 

 

Tua would be receiving last rites if Heyward hit him like he hit Allen.

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, Jistafan said:

Kelce is Maholmes best weapon. Curious how Frazier slows him down?

 

Frazier no longer has to bracket Hill and leave Kelce to attack the base zones. That is no longer a concern. He will bracket Kelce and leave his normal coverage on their hyphen brigade at WR.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

54 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

Here is the way I see it:

 

In 2020, the Chiefs were clearly the better team.  More talent and more experience.  I knew it going into both games (regular season and the playoffs), but hoped they would make enough mistakes for us to pull it out.  That didn't happen, and they solidly beat us both times.

 

Last year, I felt we pulled even.  Going into the first regular season matchup, I think we had more incentive to get that monkey off our back and played harder.  But the divisional playoff game was the definition of an evenly matched 50/50 game.

 

This year, the Bills are the superior team.  We have more talent on paper, and I've been more impressed with our performance over the first 5 games.  

 

In past years, I think Kansas City had the edge on offense.  Losing Tyreek Hill brings the two teams back to the same level.

- Quarterback play is about as even as you can get.  Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is a wash.

- Both have elite #1 receivers (Stefon Diggs vs. Travis Kelce).  The Chiefs have been stronger on the ground, but the Bills have more receiving weapons.

- O-Lines are both solid/above average, with some inconsistent streaks against elite D-Lines.

 

Where the Bills truly have the edge is on defense.  The Chiefs have some good individual players like Chris Jones and Frank Clark.  But overall, the Bills are way better on all three levels - D-Line, Linebackers and in the Secondary.  The Bills defense is currently ranked #1 in points against, #4 against the pass and #2 against the run.  For comparison, the Chiefs are ranked 23rd in points against, 24th against the pass and surprisingly 3rd against the run (despite getting totally gashed by Josh Jacobs on Monday night).

 

I want to believe this. 

 

But another poster in this thread made a great point. Pressure on Mahomes is not enough. You need sacks. 

 

We'll be able to tell early if the Bills Defensive Line can truly collapse the pocket onto Mahomes. You need to see breakdowns. Not just pressure. 

 

The Chiefs now have become great at nickel and diming their way down the field. Always in 3rd-3, 3rd-4, with a bunch of B- to B+ WRs that only need a few yards, but they rotate 3-running backs now. 

 

 

[mjt328]

44 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

I liked this take even better when Thermal said it verbatim on one bills live a couple days ago.

 

Didn't see it, but I guess great minds think a like.

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I want to believe this. 

 

But another poster in this thread made a great point. Pressure on Mahomes is not enough. You need sacks. 

 

We'll be able to tell early if the Bills Defensive Line can truly collapse the pocket onto Mahomes. You need to see breakdowns. Not just pressure. 

 

The Chiefs now have become great at nickel and diming their way down the field. Always in 3rd-3, 3rd-4, with a bunch of B- to B+ WRs that only need a few yards, but they rotate 3-running backs now. 

 

 

If the Chiefs are getting rid of the ball quickly, we probably aren't going to see many sacks.  Regardless of how improved the D-Line is.

That is just reality. 

 

My question is whether McDermott/Frazier will be willing to press-up on the offense a little this time.  Our history against the Chiefs is to keep everything underneath and force them into picking down the field.  Part of it was the fear of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.  Part of it was just our own tendencies on defense.  But without Hill, I think the Bills need to do more to challenge them on the short stuff.

 

[dollars 2 donuts]

Master of the obvious and it needs to be stated and my bad if someone has stated this before and I missed it.

 

The Chiefs have scored more points than the Bills (159-152) and Mahomes has thrown more TDs than Allen (15-14), which I have seen both items brought up nationally in talking points.  ( "As good as the Bills are the Chiefs have scored more points." yada, yada, yada "Allen is #2 in TD passes, but look who is #1!")

 

What they don't bring up is that Allen has played 2 less quarters than Mahomes through five games due to the un. merciful.  bludgeoning.  of two of the teams they played this season.

 

...again, through five games.

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts

[newcam2012]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

McDermott thrives against one dimensional offenses. The Chiefs under Mahomes have never been able to run the ball consistently but having Hill and Kelce on the field at the same time made them two dimensional in a different way. Now their whole offense is basically just about methodically moving the ball through the air and scoring on goal to go situations. Obviously having Mahomes and Kelce makes that a more than viable strategy. But I think without the fear of Hill beating us deep, combined with a much improved front 4, we are going to have more freedom to take easy opportunities away from them. I think if we lose this game it will be something like 24-21 and the main talking point will be that our offense didn't pull its weight against an average defense. If Allen and our offense plays to their potential I really believe we beat them by 10+ points.

 

I completely disagree with your assessment of the KC offense. Yes, they are less explosive without Hill. However, the Chiefs offense is still dangerous and the number 1 scoring offense in the league. Did you see the Tampa game? Tampa which has been gone of the most difficult defenses to run on. KC ran gashed them on the run. They rotate in 3 different RBs who aren't great but can be effective. The Bills have to respect their run game and screen passes. Reid loves screen passes. Mahomes is definelty not as successful throwing the longer ball this year. That doesn't mean he can't beat the Bills long. Make no mistake about it the KC offense is not one dimensional, easy to defend, or vanilla. This is a great test for the Bills defense. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

13 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Steelers did alot of nice things to protect their rookie QB, but it ultimately led to a very conservative offense.  Keeping TE/RBs to chip Von, rolling the pocket, very quick route concepts/1 side of field reads, etc.

 

To an extent, Kcs offense is designed to dink/dunk and spread the ball around more this yr.  Key will be shutting down their ground game and holding them to FGs, similar goals to basically the past couple years. 

 

As much as losing Micah hurts, i actually like our secondary more this season.  Elams athleticism/speed/press coverage and Hamlin is a more agressive safety.  Think we are more well rounded overall, even if we can't sack Pat.

 

Elam got picked on the last game & gave up a lot of completions. Athletics all 22 breakdown said it stood out in film & showed Elam was not quick enough to change his direction & keep up on come back routes. KC is sure to pick up on this & while we played more man last week than we will against KC, Mahomes will be better than Pickett at exploiting Elam. He could be the Achilles heal for this game defensively. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

10 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Master of the obvious and it needs to be stated and my bad if someone has stated this before and I missed it.

 

The Chiefs have scored more points than the Bills (159-152) and Mahomes has thrown more TDs than Allen (15-14), which I have seen both items brought up nationally in talking points.  ( "As good as the Bills are the Chiefs have scored more points." yada, yada, yada "Allen is #2 in TD passes, but look who is #1!")

 

What they don't bring up is that Allen has played 2 less quarters than Mahomes through five games due to the un. merciful.  bludgeoning.  of two of the teams they played this season.

 

...again, through five games.

 

 

 

So Allen has played 10% less than Mahomes and has scored 1 more TD (when you include rushing TDs).  

Just now, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

Elam got picked on the last game & gave up a lot of completions. Athletics all 22 breakdown said it stood out in film & showed Elam was not quick enough to change his direction & keep up on come back routes. KC is sure to pick up on this & while we played more man last week than we will against KC, Mahomes will be better than Pickett at exploiting Elam. He could be the Achilles heal for this game defensively. 

That was all part of the master plan!  Make Elam look vulnerable to certain moves in an easily winnable game.  When Mahomes tries the same stuff...Bam! Interception!

[SCBills]

Saw this tweet and it came to mind that Ward is no longer on the Chiefs.  He’s always seemed to do a really good job on Diggs.  They still have Sneed, but could be a low key missing piece that isn’t talked about enough. 
 

 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

6 TD's in 4 games. but so? Mahomes is going to score and Kelce is going to be the one scoring.

 

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Here is the way I see it:

 

In 2020, the Chiefs were clearly the better team.  More talent and more experience.  I knew it going into both games (regular season and the playoffs), but hoped they would make enough mistakes for us to pull it out.  That didn't happen, and they solidly beat us both times.

 

Last year, I felt we pulled even.  Going into the first regular season matchup, I think we had more incentive to get that monkey off our back and played harder.  But the divisional playoff game was the definition of an evenly matched 50/50 game.

 

This year, the Bills are the superior team.  We have more talent on paper, and I've been more impressed with our performance over the first 5 games.  

 

In past years, I think Kansas City had the edge on offense.  Losing Tyreek Hill brings the two teams back to the same level.

- Quarterback play is about as even as you can get.  Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes is a wash.

- Both have elite #1 receivers (Stefon Diggs vs. Travis Kelce).  The Chiefs have been stronger on the ground, but the Bills have more receiving weapons.

- O-Lines are both solid/above average, with some inconsistent streaks against elite D-Lines.

 

Where the Bills truly have the edge is on defense.  The Chiefs have some good individual players like Chris Jones and Frank Clark.  But overall, the Bills are way better on all three levels - D-Line, Linebackers and in the Secondary.  The Bills defense is currently ranked #1 in points against, #4 against the pass and #2 against the run.  For comparison, the Chiefs are ranked 23rd in points against, 24th against the pass and surprisingly 3rd against the run (despite getting totally gashed by Josh Jacobs on Monday night).

 

Really nice post. For the most part I agree with your post. I wouldn't go as far to say the Bills are the "superior team" this year. I do believe that the Bills are the better team talent wise and on paper. However, I don't think the gap is huge. For example, the difference between Buffalo and Pittsburg was huge for obvious reasons. The KC team led by Mahomes is more than capable of beating the Bills. This game is most likely a dogfight til the end. Most seasonal football fans and experts don't see a blowout for Buffalo. 

[FilthyBeast]

My biggest concern with this matchup is coaching, I still don't trust McD against his former mentor and boss when it really matters and the 13 seconds debacle was a microsm of that.

 

I also wonder about the fact that Mahomes has been great his entire career with varying degrees of talent around him, while the Bills pretty much have needed to assemble a superteam just to have a chance to finally get past KC this year.

 

In the end the 2022 is going to be a defining season for this franchise in that we either finally climb the mountain and throw the chiefs over the side of it on the way, or the realization sets in that the Bills are always going to be 2nd fiddle to the Chiefs and Mahomes as another Brady/Pats situation manifests itself the next 15+ years.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

The Chiefs don’t really throw the ball downfield anymore.  They are a dink and dunk team that’s going to try to put together 15-play drives.  The problem is that Mahomes is really good at that sort of football and it’s almost impossible to sack him when he’s just looking to get it out quickly in the short passing game. That could change of course if the Bills get out to a big lead, but I don’t think they will give the Bills’ pass rush time to get home very often.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mahomes takes several shots down field. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

35 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Didn't see it, but I guess great minds think a like.

 

If the Chiefs are getting rid of the ball quickly, we probably aren't going to see many sacks.  Regardless of how improved the D-Line is.

That is just reality. 

 

My question is whether McDermott/Frazier will be willing to press-up on the offense a little this time.  Our history against the Chiefs is to keep everything underneath and force them into picking down the field.  Part of it was the fear of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.  Part of it was just our own tendencies on defense.  But without Hill, I think the Bills need to do more to challenge them on the short stuff.

 

I think that's what other teams have tried as well. 

 

I'd really like to hear Greg Cosell on this matchup. But I believe I heard other analysts say something to that effect. No Hill means the fear of getting beat over the top is lessened, so now more defenders can play closer to the box, the cushions on the outside are reduced. 

 

In the past I felt like it didn't matter. We never had an answer for Kelce or Hill. Regardless of cushion, no cushion, those players just made the same explosive plays anyways. 

 

Kelce is 33 now, has there been any signs that he is easier to cover? 

 

And to your point, if Mahomes is getting the ball out in less than 2-seconds, I think the most direct path that the Bills can take is to play more man, and press man at that. Against Pittsburgh, it looked the same to me. Huge cushions for George Pickens, and he got what he wanted. 

 

I just don't think McDermott or Frazier are going to change. I think we're going to see the same huge cushions all day. 

30 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Master of the obvious and it needs to be stated and my bad if someone has stated this before and I missed it.

 

The Chiefs have scored more points than the Bills (159-152) and Mahomes has thrown more TDs than Allen (15-14), which I have seen both items brought up nationally in talking points.  ( "As good as the Bills are the Chiefs have scored more points." yada, yada, yada "Allen is #2 in TD passes, but look who is #1!")

 

What they don't bring up is that Allen has played 2 less quarters than Mahomes through five games due to the un. merciful.  bludgeoning.  of two of the teams they played this season.

 

...again, through five games.

 

 

 

And Mahomes has 0 rushing TDs. 

 

Also, if Morris holds on last week, that's another passing TD. 

 

This was my point earlier, if the bar is Mahomes, and that's it, then nobody measures up. 

 

Why the heck are the Jags even trying with Trevor Lawrence? He doesn't look better than Mahomes. 

 

Herbert? He's nice, but his Chargers struggle to put away the Chiefs. 

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

Everybody needs to stop worrying about the Chiefs.  I asked my brother (Lions fan) and a guy I work with (Cowboys fan,) and they both said the Bills are going to scrape the Chiefs.  It's a done deal! 😂

[TheBrownBear]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

 

Really nice post. For the most part I agree with your post. I wouldn't go as far to say the Bills are the "superior team" this year. I do believe that the Bills are the better team talent wise and on paper. However, I don't think the gap is huge. For example, the difference between Buffalo and Pittsburg was huge for obvious reasons. The KC team led by Mahomes is more than capable of beating the Bills. This game is most likely a dogfight til the end. Most seasonal football fans and experts don't see a blowout for Buffalo. 

I agree.  Our defense is better, but Mahomes is the type of talent that can transcend against a great defense.  I view this as an even matchup that is really anyone's game.  It will come down to who plays the cleaner game and makes the least mistakes.  If both teams play a clean game, it comes down to who has the ball last - just like it did in the playoffs.