Christian McCaffrey rumors

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

He's not a WR.......let alone a very good one........that's just a false narrative.

 

Too many Bills fans are envisioning a return to the days of Thurman Thomas.........who averaged almost 11 yards per reception picking on big, slow LB's over the first 5 years of his career (which is basically when he hit the wall).  

 

Thurman actually had a higher yards per reception in his second season than Stefon Diggs did in HIS.

 

Christian McCaffrey is good by todays RB standards but he only gets you about 8 yard per reception.    That's it.   That is NOT to be confused with WR production in the NFL.   A halfway decent receiver does more than that.

 

RB's are not WR's...........not James Cook.........not McCaffrey or Kamara..........and not Breece Hall once he gets enough games under his belt to matter.

yes and no?

 

Any RB will dilute YPC with dump offs and screens etc… behind the line. Some can run a real route and some can’t. I don’t think CMC is giving diggs or Davis a run for their money deep but if you plopped him at slot wr with a healthy dose of intermediate routes I do believe that YPC goes up a bit.

 

perhaps I’m overestimating his skill set there but I’ve seen him run some genuine WR quality routes in the bit of seen him and not just be a RB that can catch a lil better than average. 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Im not talking about paying an elite RB.  I said there is no denying it would boost our offense even higher.  
 

CMC would also only cost us $600k or so this year.  And can be cut with no cap hit next year if Beane didn’t want to pay him.  
 

Again, I don’t think it’s gonna happen, but money isn’t really an issue here if the intention is to elevate chances for just this year.  

Yea, it’s ultimately a matter of draft capital… and as that price goes up you need to start feeling more comfortable with the future year cash. 

[BananaB]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

He would also cost at least a first round draft pick.  I dont think the Panthers are kidding when they say they dont want to get rid of him but still would for something outrageous.  Also, I dont think its accurate that the Bills can just cut him next year with no cap hit.  Someone else already posted on this.

 

Singletary is getting good production in both running and passing.  CMC is not going to be leagues better to warrant a first round draft pick or even a second for a half year rental.

If he helps us with a Super Bowl a first round pick is well worth it. He’s upgrade from Singletary and I think that’s all that matters when we are looking at an area where we have often struggled. 

[BarleyNY]

10 hours ago, cba fan said:

incorrect. Any team trading for CM has a small cap hit this year of half of his 1 mill yearly salary (depending on what week the trade happens)

but if cut in off season new team has mega dead cap hit of 15 to 18 mill. Exact number unknown as spotrak site does not update trade numbers until after a trade.

 

The dead cap stays with the Panthers. A team trading for him takes on his minimum salary for this season and three seasons at about $12M each, but ZERO of that is guaranteed except for a $1M injury guarantee next season. 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BananaB said:

If he helps us with a Super Bowl a first round pick is well worth it. He’s upgrade from Singletary and I think that’s all that matters when we are looking at an area where we have often struggled. 

 

No a partial year rental is not worth a first round pick. We havent often struggled in those areas.  The struggles we do have are usually the result of poor oline blocking.  CMC is not going to get much more production then we are already getting that make it worth throwing away a first round pick that could be used on improving our oline or receiver group next season or potentailly a replacement for cap casualty which we are going to for sure have.

[Solomon Grundy]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Except that’s just not true.  In the last 25 years…a team with a great D and run game as the strength of their teams won the SB 11 times.  

To name some:  

Manning won his last ring on a run game and defense as the worst passer in the NFL that year and worst QB performance in a Super Bowl win in NFL history.  
 

Russel Wilson won a SB as a game manager before he became a great QB behind a dominant run game and dominant defense.  And would have won back to back had they run instead of pass at end of the game.  
 

Big Ben won a SB on the back of a dominant run game and defense before he became a great passer later in his career.  
 

New England won their first 3 Super Bowls as a great defense and running team with squat at WR before Brady became a high production QB.
 

Ravens won the SB with Trent Dilfer and a dominant run game and dominant defense.  
 

Giants won multiple SBs this way.  
 

None of this matters.  I’m not saying let’s become a run team or even to trade for CMC.  Heck I’m one of Devin’s biggest defenders and supporters here.  I’m just correcting this inaccurate claim you just made that it’s never happened in the last 25 years.

PREACH!! 

[BarleyNY]

Injury history is my concern with CMC. If we were to include Singletary in a trade then we would be starting Cook or Moss if CMC gets hurt. That would make us worse off this season. If we don’t include Singletary, then how are we not including a first? That’s steep. 
 

A healthy CMC is a perfect fit for the Bills. His impact against teams playing over the top defenses would be enormous. I would certainly rather see him do that for the Bills than the Chefs. But that’s if he can stay healthy…..

 

it’s a hell of a gamble and I think someone takes it. I just don’t know which team. I’ll say this though, if CMC wants to be a Bill and tanks his value with a tantrum I won’t hold it against him. 

[Scott7975]

 

https://thebuffalofanatics.com/buffalo-bulletin-the-bills-shouldnt-trade-for-christian-mccaffrey/

 

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It’s a strong statement coming from one of the NFL’s weakest run games, but it’s true. There are good reasons for the Buffalo Bills to pursue Christian McCaffrey. There are better reasons to stay put. We’d like to believe that a star running back would push this run game over the top… but would they?

The Buffalo Bills Run Game Woes

At a glance, you might think our run game is average. The Buffalo Bills are putting up 116.4 rushing yards per game, good for 14th in the NFL, but that statistic is misleading. Once you factor in that our leading rusher is Josh Allen, providing 45.0 yards per game on the ground, the running back room looks far from threatening. Without our quarterback, the Bills have rushed for only 71.4 YPG this season. Is it the fault of our RBs, though, or poor blocking?

 

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Through four weeks (pending Week 5 statistics), the Bills sat at dead last with a pitiful 65% run-block win rate. Oftentimes, our running backs get the ball with pressure in their face already. They’re handed the ball and sent towards running lanes that either never opened or closed too fast. A majority of our yardage on the ground has come from broken plays or broken tackles. The league-best win-rate is 75%, owned by the Cardinals, Raiders, and Broncos and CMC currently sits behind a line that provides a 74% win-rate when rushing.

You see, our problems running the ball go deeper than the ball-carrier. The number of running backs in the NFL who can put up impressive numbers despite a poor supporting cast can be counted on one hand. Is Christian McCaffrey one of them? So far this season, he hasn’t had to be. He would upgrade the RB room, but is the cost of the upgrade worth it?

 

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To justify this trade, one has to make several assumptions. First, we assume that his skillset is directly translatable into this offense. Second, we assume that he’s capable of the same level of production behind a worse run-blocking offensive line. Thirdly, we assume we can handle the hits financially in the upcoming thin-walleted offseason. The last assumption we make is that his usage would justify the current and future cost of this trade. Of these assumptions, only one seems reasonable.

 

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This first, and most reasonable, assumption is that he’d fit into the offense. We would need to adjust our running back room somewhat, but it’s fair to believe that he could fill a similar role to what he plays in Carolina currently.

Assumption #2: Production

McCaffrey is a great running back, but he needs space to operate. Can we reasonably believe that he’d provide the same yardage per attempt behind significantly worse run-blocking? The answer is no. When the blocking succeeds, so do the RBs we already have. If we want to fix the run game, we need to find more reliable blocking to elevate everyone in the group, not slap a band-aid on the problem and hope it goes away.''

 

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Assumption #3: Long-Term Cost Management

Christian McCaffrey will not be expensive this year, but he won’t stay that way. The Panthers converted his salary to a bonus earlier this year, meaning he would only count for $600K against the 2022 salary cap. In 2023, his cap hit leaps to $19.5M. It stays there for 2024, and drops to $15.4M in 2025. We’d either be on the hook for a three-year, $54M contract for a running back with heavy recent injury history, Luckily, the guarantees and dead cap are largely covered by Panthers. The contract boils down to a $12M average annual value (AAV), which is still expensive. Also, in order to have the Panthers assume so much dead cap for a player not on their roster, they’d need significant compensation, namely draft picks. The Bills cannot afford to seperate with long-term cost-controlled capital to assume another expensive asset.

Cutting him in 2023 is possible, but considering the assets required for that move, this trade would be a long-term investment. If we took him on, this situation would be lumped into an already-murky salary cap situation for the Buffalo Bills.

Assumption #4: Justifying Value with Usage

Perhaps the most important part of this discussion is whether or not we’d even want to put him out there. To justify giving up current and future assets that this team needs in order to get a better running back, we must make the assumption that we’d use McCaffrey enough to make it worthwhile.

 

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Unfortunately, giving Christian McCaffrey the ball means taking it away from Josh Allen. In the modern NFL, a strong passing game can overcome any obstacle. We have one of the best in the league. We only get so many snaps in a game, and this team would be hard-pressed to put a cap on Josh Allen’s incredible week-after-week dominance to give the ball to another running back behind a suspect offensive line.

This sunk cost fallacy is one I’d rather avoid. The offense shouldn’t have to lean away from our unrelenting passing attack in order to justify tricky accounting. We can still improve the team, but not like that.

 

There is zero chance that Beane is throwing away first round picks on a guy for just this season.  We dont have the money in the future for a 12m per year aav oft injured running back unless you want to lose all of Poyer, Edwards, Oliver, Davis.  We are probably already losing two of those.  I wouldnt want to lose all of them for some over priced running back just because he might get a yard or two extra than our cheap guys. Running back is not the position you put money into when you have an elite QB.  I dont care how good he is.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Scott7975

[BarleyNY]

14 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

https://thebuffalofanatics.com/buffalo-bulletin-the-bills-shouldnt-trade-for-christian-mccaffrey/

 

Unfortunately, giving Christian McCaffrey the ball means taking it away from Josh Allen. In the modern NFL, a strong passing game can overcome any obstacle. We have one of the best in the league. We only get so many snaps in a game, and this team would be hard-pressed to put a cap on Josh Allen’s incredible week-after-week dominance to give the ball to another running back behind a suspect offensive line.

I think the person who wrote this is missing an enormous point - CMC’s value in the passing game, especially against C-2 and other concepts that aim to limit deep throws. He also would likely limit Josh’s designed runs, which I’d be in favor of during the regular season. Injury and trade cost concerns aside, CMC would be an amazing addition for Buffalo. The problem with trading for him is that those concerns are so substantial. But those are different arguments.

[Kellyhero68]

Motor is in the last year of his contract and would be asking for more $$$ and would probably leave. Moss is not what the Bills thought he was and James Cook is unproven. It makes sense to trade for McCaffrey to replace Moss this year and be the full-time starter next year and Motor leaves for free agency. The Bills are on the cusp of the Superbowl so just do it. KC has freed up $3 million dollars, so they are looking for an upgrade also. Got to keep up to win it all.

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Kellyhero68 said:

Motor is in the last year of his contract and would be asking for more $$$ and would probably leave. Moss is not what the Bills thought he was and James Cook is unproven. It makes sense to trade for McCaffrey to replace Moss this year and be the full-time starter next year and Motor leaves for free agency. The Bills are on the cusp of the Superbowl so just do it. KC has freed up $3 million dollars, so they are looking for an upgrade also. Got to keep up to win it all.

 

The Bills are not going to pay 12 million dollars per year on a RB.  KC said they freed up space for practice squad stuff and things.

[Scott7975]

36 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I think the person who wrote this is missing an enormous point - CMC’s value in the passing game, especially against C-2 and other concepts that aim to limit deep throws. He also would likely limit Josh’s designed runs, which I’d be in favor of during the regular season. Injury and trade cost concerns aside, CMC would be an amazing addition for Buffalo. The problem with trading for him is that those concerns are so substantial. But those are different arguments.

 

Nobodies missing that point. The dude is a RB that isnt getting that much more than Singletary in the passing game. Its not that much of an upgrade that people think it is. CMC is not going to come in here and just start getting the ball left and right and take it out of Diggs or Davis hands.  He isnt a slot receiver.  He is a running back no matter how many times people want to say it.  Sure he is good in the passing game but he is still a running back.  That little extra he would get over Singletary is not as significant as people want to believe.

 

As a running back McCaffrey is getting 0.1 ypa better than Singletary is and the Panthers are way better at run blocking.  As a reciever McCaffrey is getting 0.8 more ypc than Singletary.  People are in dream world thinking CMC is just going to catch passes left and right and take off for 20 more yards every time.  Thats not going to happen.  Its not a big enough difference to throw away first round picks on.  It just isnt.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Scott7975

[BADOLBILZ]

19 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I think the person who wrote this is missing an enormous point - CMC’s value in the passing game, especially against C-2 and other concepts that aim to limit deep throws. He also would likely limit Josh’s designed runs, which I’d be in favor of during the regular season. Injury and trade cost concerns aside, CMC would be an amazing addition for Buffalo. The problem with trading for him is that those concerns are so substantial. But those are different arguments.

 

 

There is no RB whose impact in the passing game is "enormous"...........the idea that throwing to a stud RB consistently leaves modern defenses vulnerable is not supported by fact...........there is still a defender assigned to a RB and now those defenders are often......if not usually..........faster than the RB's.    Hence the relatively pathetic returns on passes to even the best RB's compared to the days of young Thurman Thomas.

 

Not sure why this is hard to grasp on TSW but the extra WR has replaced the "3rd down back" concept in the modern NFL and it really doesn't matter what down you deploy them because defense's are base nickel now.

 

ACTUAL WR's are doing this too........not moonlighters like Alvin Kamara who is excellent "for a RB"........but really NOT some polished NFL WR.  

 

Those actual receivers can beat back-heavy coverages as well........but for 10-13 yards as opposed to 8.

 

As I said last week...........the problem with the Bills rush offense is that they are trying to run the ball from a position of ultimate weakness........out of shotgun and using simple zone concepts that allow them to play fast but don't allow the OL to either get into their run blocks or get in better blocking positions to wall off blocker like they are when they are allowed to be on the move.

 

Then what do ya' know?   They line up behind center with traditional play action in KC and Singletary puts up 5 yards per carry.

 

How much more than that do people think Christian McCaffrey is going to give you?    Recent history suggests a fraction of a yard less on the ground mixed with a yard or two more in receiving.

 

The Bills offense isn't and shouldn't be about moving down the field in those kind of small increments.

 

If people want to see a notable uptick on offense..........figure out a way to get a second boundary option at WR that would allow Diggs to play in the slot..........where he is unstoppable in the same way that Cooper Kupp is.    Or at least let Shakir replace McKenzie.   These are ways to make NOTABLE yardage gains per play.......potentially 3-5 yards per touch gains. 

 

 

[Kellyhero68]

20 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills are not going to pay 12 million dollars per year on a RB.  KC said they freed up space for practice squad stuff and things.

Thats what KC "said" but is that what they will actually do? I do not think so. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Nobodies missing that point. The dude is a RB that isnt getting that much more than Singletary in the passing game. Its not that much of an upgrade that people think it is. CMC is not going to come in here and just start getting the ball left and right and take it out of Diggs or Davis hands.  He isnt a slot receiver.  He is a running back no matter how many times people want to say it.  Sure he is good in the passing game but he is still a running back.  That little extra he would get over Singletary is not as significant as people want to believe.

 

As a running back McCaffrey is getting 0.1 ypa better than Singletary is and the Panthers are way better at run blocking.  As a reciever McCaffrey is getting 0.8 more ypc than Singletary.  People are in dream world thinking CMC is just going to catch passes left and right and take off for 20 more yards every time.  Thats not going to happen.  Its not a big enough difference to throw away first round picks on.  It just isnt.

Couple points of disagreement and some agreement here:

 

- the Panthers line sucks. They have one good player on it. One.

- CMC is the whole offense in Carolina and defenses are keying on him and only him; contrast that with what defenses have to deal with against Buffalo. There’s no comparison. 
- If you don’t think that CMC would compliment this offense in ways we don’t have now, then I don’t know what to say. Maybe watch him play.
- I’ve also been steadfastly against giving away big compensation for him so we agree there, if for different reasons. Mine are injury risk and the apparent high cost of acquiring him. You said that you don’t think he’d be a significant upgrade over Singletary. I think that’s ridiculous. So I’m in the “Yes, if the price is right” camp, not your “he wouldn’t help us” camp. 

[BrooklynBills]

57 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills are not going to pay 12 million dollars per year on a RB.  KC said they freed up space for practice squad stuff and things.

 

It won't cost $12 million per year though. What is a number that makes sense?

 

Singletary will probably costs around $4 mil/yr.  There are a bunch of FA RBs next year but the going rate for average RBs is about $4 mil.  Moss and Cook are not options as starters.  So you are already looking at spending a day 2 (or day 1) draft pick on a RB and/or spending significant cash on a player.  They absolutely cannot go into next year with Moss, Cook, and 2 JAGs.

 

So bare minimum you are looking at spending $4-6 million on the RB position next year in FA or re-signing Singletary and at least another 2nd or 3rd round pick.  Moss is gone.  Cook is an unknown.  Any of the cheap options out there are going to be ??s.  For a team in a Super Bowl window, you cannot afford to have a such a low-floor at any position that could sink the season.  

 

CMC is on a non-GTD contract.  And he's 26.  They can easily re-structure this deal to put him in favorable cap situation. With zero GTD money they can essentially just sign him to a brand new backloaded deal.  Even if they give him something at the top of the RB market, those first 2-3 years are going to be cap numbers in the 4s, 5s, 6s.

 

So would you spend 6 mil and 2nd round pick on an proven All-Pro RB who is an x-factor in the pass game? Or would you rather spend those same assets on Singletary and an unknown rookie? I think when I finally broke it down like this - my choice was a lot clearer.

[HappyDays]

AKA they want a 1st rounder but ultimately they'll take the best offer they can get.

[Mark92]

I would do a 2nd rounder for CMC.  

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

AKA they want a 1st rounder but ultimately they'll take the best offer they can get.

 

Okay then offer a 2nd, 2024 3rd (Conditional), 6th, Moss throw in

Edited October 19, 2022 by Warriorspikes51

[BananaB]

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

No a partial year rental is not worth a first round pick. We havent often struggled in those areas.  The struggles we do have are usually the result of poor oline blocking.  CMC is not going to get much more production then we are already getting that make it worth throwing away a first round pick that could be used on improving our oline or receiver group next season or potentailly a replacement for cap casualty which we are going to for sure have.

CMC would be another player defences have to game plan for. I’m not sure they do much of it for Singletary. He’s Ok player but he’s not a game breaker, defences are probably pretty happy him getting a  lot of touches while facing our offense. CMC would completely change the way defences focus on our backfield. 

[starrymessenger]

To me Singletary has shown that he can function adequately as the feature back and he does not have CMC's injury history. I don't think whatever extra marginal value CMC might provide is worth the 32nd pick. Pass.