Hot take: Shakir should be the starting slot receiver going forward

[PrimeTime101]

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

That is my point. Y'all making the case that Shakir > McK based on one game against a team we practically shut out. To claim that "McK hasn't done chit this year" is just not true, including in comparison to Shakir. And to say that Shakir "makes a few nice plays I've never seen mck make," is anecdotal, at best. McKenzie has had some great games in a Bills uniform, against much better opponents.

 

 

your still missing the point. Shakir has upside... what you see is what you get out of McKenzie

[Beck Water]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Look, everyone has an opinion.  I stated mine.  

 

All you've said here is that my opinion is wrong because I don't have enough data.   So, when my opinion after one preseason game that Josh Allen was the franchise quarterback was wrong because I only saw 20 snaps?   Your opinion is that EVERY veteran is better than EVERY rookie simply because he's a veteran?   That makes no sense.  

 

I've watched McKenzie drop balls long enough to know that he is not a first-rate receiver.   He was on the bench behind Beasley for a reason.  The Bills signed Crowder for a reason.   They drafted Shakir for a reason.  I've got more data than I need to think Shakir should be the slot guy.  

 

You can have your opinion.   I might be wrong.  But you can't prove that you're right, so I don't see why you need to argue as though I'm an idiot.  

 

My Goodness!  I thought that was a polite and reasonably respectful post regarding my opinions.   Guess I gotta recalibrate.  Or no....

 

 "my opinion must be EVERY veteran is better than EVERY rookie simply because he is a veteran".  Don't go there, Man.  That ain't the way to show us how to not argue as though I'm an idiot.

 

Going into the season, McKenzie hadn't proven durability in the slot or ability to find space and get open against the best zone teams.  Hence Crowder (who has proven he can get open in the slot) and Austin.  So far, McK has contributed 15 receptions on 21 targets, 153 yds (44 YAC) in the 1st 4 games with 2 drops and no fumbles - on <50% of the snaps.  Last 3.3 years, 2 fumbles as a WR (both last season).  I "get it" you don't like him and you consider his hands suspect, but objectively that's a 71% catch rate and 30 ypg.  Beasley contributed 43 ypg and 5 R/G last season, with 60-70% of the snaps.

 

There's stuff that can justly be said about Shakir at this point.  He's got a higher physical ceiling - height, weight, speed, hands.  He looks very very smooth running his routes.  He seems to have good hands and the ability to beat a guy deep and high-point or out muscle guys.  I have very high hopes for the guy, indeed.

 

But he's had 1 start plus a couple Q.  He's had 9 targets, 5 receptions, and 2 scored drops.  He's made some beautiful catches, and I don't want to take a thing away from those.  I haven't seen him, as you said "find open space more consistently than McKenzie while running from wide out as well as the slot, and he has shown better consistency catching the ball".  Specifically, I haven't seen him find those open gaps in the slot and get open quickly enough there.  He made a beautiful sideline grab on a scramble drill vs. the Ravens in addition to the 3 great receptions this past week.  I've seen him beat guys deep.

 

Your comment about "when my opinion after one preseason game that Josh Allen was the franchise quarterback was wrong because I only saw 20 snaps" is illuminating though.  I wasn't ready to anoint Josh Allen as our franchise QB based on 1 preseason game!  In his 2nd season, Allen was making boneheaded decisions no franchise QB can make (example: his 3 INT game against the Patriots) and even in 2020, he was simply not seeing open guys no franchise QB can miss when he's under duress.  I hoped Allen could grow into being The Man, and he has, but he could easily have gone in another direction.  You could see his fierce competitive spirit and the way he inspired the guys to go hard for him.  But he was jumping over people 1 week, and failing to understand and set protections correctly and getting his ass whupped the next.

 

 I would have to say that I called it when I said you're prone to take a limited sample set and project, based upon your own biases and beliefs.  With regard to Allen, you were correct.  I hope you are correct that Shakir turns out to be a new Beasley++ with better outside receiver skills (the Bills tried Beasley outside in 2019 and it didn't work out too well)

 

But he simply hasn't shown it yet, and not because of some foolishness about "every veteran will be better than every rookie"..... because I haven't seen it from THIS rookie in THIS season yet, and I don't know when you have 'cuz I been lookin'

 

Hopefully we'll see it this coming Sunday.

 

 

 

On 10/10/2022 at 10:13 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Whether he's #3 or #4 this year almost doesn't matter to me as long as he sees the field, which I think happens.

 

Exactly. 

 

What I don't think we'll see going forward is Shakir on the Inactives list on Gameday (barring injury).  Shakir will see the field.

 

I don't think we'll see McKenzie on the bench, either.  I think we'll see load sharing which fluctuates depending on how they're playing and who we're facing.

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

My Goodness!  I thought that was a polite and reasonably respectful post regarding my opinions.   Guess I gotta recalibrate.  Or no....

 

 "my opinion must be EVERY veteran is better than EVERY rookie simply because he is a veteran".  Don't go there, Man.  That ain't the way to show us how to not argue as though I'm an idiot.

 

Going into the season, McKenzie hadn't proven durability in the slot or ability to find space and get open against the best zone teams.  Hence Crowder (who has proven he can get open in the slot) and Austin.  So far, McK has contributed 15 receptions on 21 targets, 153 yds (44 YAC) in the 1st 4 games with 2 drops and no fumbles - on <50% of the snaps.  Last 3.3 years, 2 fumbles as a WR (both last season).  I "get it" you don't like him and you consider his hands suspect, but objectively that's a 71% catch rate and 30 ypg.  Beasley contributed 43 ypg and 5 R/G last season, with 60-70% of the snaps.

 

There's stuff that can justly be said about Shakir at this point.  He's got a higher physical ceiling - height, weight, speed, hands.  He looks very very smooth running his routes.  He seems to have good hands and the ability to beat a guy deep and high-point or out muscle guys.  I have very high hopes for the guy, indeed.

 

But he's had 1 start plus a couple Q.  He's had 9 targets, 5 receptions, and 2 scored drops.  He's made some beautiful catches, and I don't want to take a thing away from those.  I haven't seen him, as you said "find open space more consistently than McKenzie while running from wide out as well as the slot, and he has shown better consistency catching the ball".  Specifically, I haven't seen him find those open gaps in the slot and get open quickly enough there.  He made a beautiful sideline grab on a scramble drill vs. the Ravens in addition to the 3 great receptions this past week.  I've seen him beat guys deep.

 

Your comment about "when my opinion after one preseason game that Josh Allen was the franchise quarterback was wrong because I only saw 20 snaps" is illuminating though.  I wasn't ready to anoint Josh Allen as our franchise QB based on 1 preseason game!  In his 2nd season, Allen was making boneheaded decisions no franchise QB can make (example: his 3 INT game against the Patriots) and even in 2020, he was simply not seeing open guys no franchise QB can miss when he's under duress.  I hoped Allen could grow into being The Man, and he has, but he could easily have gone in another direction.  You could see his fierce competitive spirit and the way he inspired the guys to go hard for him.  But he was jumping over people 1 week, and failing to understand and set protections correctly and getting his ass whupped the next.

 

 I would have to say that I called it when I said you're prone to take a limited sample set and project, based upon your own biases and beliefs.  With regard to Allen, you were correct.  I hope you are correct that Shakir turns out to be a new Beasley++ with better outside receiver skills (the Bills tried Beasley outside in 2019 and it didn't work out too well)

 

But he simply hasn't shown it yet, and not because of some foolishness about "every veteran will be better than every rookie"..... because I haven't seen it from THIS rookie in THIS season yet, and I don't know when you have 'cuz I been lookin'

 

Hopefully we'll see it this coming Sunday.

 

 

Sorry.  I get you.  And I don't disagree with some of what you say.  However, I have never thought McKenzie was the answer.  And I think he's an example of where stats are misleading.   Probably a third or more of his career catches were on jet sweeps, so of course his receptions to targets are great.   He wasn't a real receiver until last season. 

 

I know you don't think every veteran is better than every rookie.   I said it because the only argument you gave the first time around was that McKenzie had put up bigger numbers in his career, so it made no sense to say Shakir was better.  The clear implication of that argument is that every veteran is better than every rookie, so I said it to demonstrate to you that your argument meant nothing.  

 

And that's why I said it's all just about our opinions.  Obviously, none of us knows whether Shakir will have a better career than McKenzie, we just have opinions about it.   As Gunner or someone said, maybe it was the OP, some of it is just the eyeball test.   For me, there's something about how he runs routes and how he finds his way to open space.   I don't believe that many receivers in the league are truly good at getting separation - most just run routes.   Shakir doesn't get separation, but he seems to have a great understanding of how routes work and where to go to make himself available to Allen.   That's why people compare him to Robert Woods, because Woods did that, too.   

 

Anyway, I apologize for being so sharp.  I reacted because you seemed to be dismissing my opinion simply because you thought it was too early to tell.  

 

 

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Speaking solely for myself, the wild factor:

-he's got two DB in the area at the catch point, one able to make a play on the catch and both able to potentially pick any deflection by the rook

-Diggs appears to be more open

 

 

Matt Waldman calls this a "trust throw", would you disagree?

 

Offense was in trips to the field with a wide split by #1 to widen the corner - Steelers are sitting in Cover 3. Shakir is running the seam. That's a LONG way for the corner and backside Safety to travel. Mike has to carry or wall a vertical by #3 to give the Safety and Corner time to get over top. Was it an impressive throw and catch? Certainly. This notion that Allen was just throwing up a prayer into triple coverage is far from the truth though.

 

Here's what Allen is seeing as he releases the ball:

 

The corner doesn't come into the frame until the ball is about halfway to Shakir. Again, impressive throw and catch, but to me this is just two dudes understanding the scheme they are running vs the scheme they are seeing from the defense and attacking it at it's weakest point for maximum gains. Just all around good execution.

 

Side note - who is the dude talking in the twitter video? He doesn't sound like he has a clue what he's saying lol.

[Nephilim17]

McKenzie seems like a decent guy and he has some quickness but he seems to me to lack that intensity and football focus. I see that in Shakir. And I admit I base my interpretation of McKenzie partly on his interviews (saw a full episode of his show once) and he just doesn't seem to be totally serious about football. This could be a totally crap take but it's my gut instinct.

I see Shakir studying film and asking questions from Stephon and even defensive players. I don't see McKenzie doing that. Yes, just a gut feeling but his play doesn't seem as intense either. I can't imagine McKenzie making that highlight grab in coverage Shakir made in the Steelers game. 

 

I suspect the BIlls brass doesn't see huge potential in McKenzie either giving him a deal worth up to $8 million with incentives over  two years; that's peanuts for a veteran receiver.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

McKenzie still going to get plenty looks 2Pac shakir Just does a different man he went up and high pointed that ball so that the other defenders had no chance at it

Agreed.  They’ll both see plenty of snaps.  I’m just glad crowder is out of the mix and we can get out future some experience 

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Offense was in trips to the field with a wide split by #1 to widen the corner - Steelers are sitting in Cover 3. Shakir is running the seam. That's a LONG way for the corner and backside Safety to travel. Mike has to carry or wall a vertical by #3 to give the Safety and Corner time to get over top. Was it an impressive throw and catch? Certainly. This notion that Allen was just throwing up a prayer into triple coverage is far from the truth though.

 

Here's what Allen is seeing as he releases the ball:

 

The corner doesn't come into the frame until the ball is about halfway to Shakir. Again, impressive throw and catch, but to me this is just two dudes understanding the scheme they are running vs the scheme they are seeing from the defense and attacking it at it's weakest point for maximum gains. Just all around good execution.

 

Side note - who is the dude talking in the twitter video? He doesn't sound like he has a clue what he's saying lol.

 

On the dude - no idea, never heard of him.  Read his twitter bio and your guess is as good as mine.

 

On the Cover 3 - Erik Turner broke this down on the Cover1 film room this week.  2:40 in if the time stamp doesn't work He says the Steelers showed Cover3 but it was actually a Tampa 2 look.  I don't think Allen was "throwing a prayer" into triple coverage but that explains why Diggs was all alone, and can we agree that throwing into what's actually a 2 high look may get Josh into trouble with a better secondary?

 

 

[HoofHearted]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

On the dude - no idea, never heard of him.  Read his twitter bio and your guess is as good as mine.

 

On the Cover 3 - Erik Turner broke this down on the Cover1 film room this week.  2:40 in if the time stamp doesn't work He says the Steelers showed Cover3 but it was actually a Tampa 2 look.  I don't think Allen was "throwing a prayer" into triple coverage but that explains why Diggs was all alone, and can we agree that throwing into what's actually a 2 high look may get Josh into trouble with a better secondary?

 

 

He's right. I didn't see the bottom side corner before. Still follows the sample principles I was talking about earlier though - the Mike Linebacker is a wall player to give the corner and Safety time to get to the throw. It's still the right read with the deep half player coming from so far outside.

 

Diggs looks so open because the Safety to that side is reading Allen's eyes. If Allen were looking Diggs way he'd be tighter on Diggs over the top.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

Mckenzie and Shakir are both Bills culture.  But I think Shakir is better!

[Warriorspikes51]

Shakir looks like an absolute steal in the 5th

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

Mckenzie and Shakir are both Bills culture.  But I think Shakir is better!

 

McKenzie is a living example of the saying "it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog".  He's 5'7 1/2", 173; he's got tiny little 8" and something hands.  He's played in the NFL for 6 seasons.  Think about that.

 

I SMH at the people who come on here like "oh, I don't think he studies film and asks questions or is serious about football".  Yeah, McKenzie is a Grade A Jokester and lives to talk trash as Micah Hyde tells us, but how in Hell do people think a smurf with toy hands who came into the league with a basic level of how to read coverage or run routes has managed a 6 year career in the NFL if he doesn't work his ass off, not only in the gym but in the meetings and the film room to develop his ability to read a defense and run better routes?

 

Shakir has the potential to exceed McKenzie's ceiling because he'll also work his ass off, but he's got uncoachables - better physical attributes - just as fast, but 6' with a bigger frame carrying close to 200 lbs and bigger hands - and he's come into the league with a much higher baseline of route running chops and football understanding. 

 

I'm very hopeful for Shakir and the more I watch of the film from Sunday, the more I like him - he threw several NIIIIICE blocks  in there.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Beck Water

[Nephilim17]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

McKenzie is a living example of the saying "it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog".  He's 5'7 1/2", 173; he's got tiny little 8" and something hands.  He's played in the NFL for 6 seasons.  Think about that.

 

I SMH at the people who come on here like "oh, I don't think he studies film and asks questions or is serious about football".  Yeah, McKenzie is a Grade A Jokester and lives to talk trash as Micah Hyde tells us, but how in Hell do people think a smurf with toy hands who came into the league with a basic level of how to read coverage or run routes has managed a 6 year career in the NFL if he doesn't work his ass off, not only in the gym but in the meetings and the film room to develop his ability to read a defense and run better routes?

 

Shakir has the potential to exceed McKenzie's ceiling because he'll also work his ass off, but he's got uncoachables - better physical attributes - just as fast, but 6' with a bigger frame carrying close to 200 lbs and bigger hands - and he's come into the league with a much higher baseline of route running chops and football understanding. 

 

I'm very hopeful for Shakir and the more I watch of the film from Sunday, the more I like him - he threw several NIIIIICE blocks  in there.

I hear you but I wasn't fond of his lackadaisical response on his show about the end of the dolphins game. He basically absolved himself of any wrongdoing while I believe he could have and should have ran straight out of bounds. I could be wrong but that's my take.

[Joe Ferguson forever]

6 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I hear you but I wasn't fond of his lackadaisical response on his show about the end of the dolphins game. He basically absolved himself of any wrongdoing while I believe he could have and should have ran straight out of bounds. I could be wrong but that's my take.

split second...didn't realize 6 years in the league.  Good for him.  Hope there's several more.  and not missing Beasley.

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by redtail hawk

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry.  I get you.  And I don't disagree with some of what you say.  However, I have never thought McKenzie was the answer.  And I think he's an example of where stats are misleading.   Probably a third or more of his career catches were on jet sweeps, so of course his receptions to targets are great.   He wasn't a real receiver until last season. 

 

I know you don't think every veteran is better than every rookie.   I said it because the only argument you gave the first time around was that McKenzie had put up bigger numbers in his career, so it made no sense to say Shakir was better.  The clear implication of that argument is that every veteran is better than every rookie, so I said it to demonstrate to you that your argument meant nothing.  

 

And that's why I said it's all just about our opinions.  Obviously, none of us knows whether Shakir will have a better career than McKenzie, we just have opinions about it.   As Gunner or someone said, maybe it was the OP, some of it is just the eyeball test.   For me, there's something about how he runs routes and how he finds his way to open space.   I don't believe that many receivers in the league are truly good at getting separation - most just run routes.   Shakir doesn't get separation, but he seems to have a great understanding of how routes work and where to go to make himself available to Allen.   That's why people compare him to Robert Woods, because Woods did that, too.   

 

Anyway, I apologize for being so sharp.  I reacted because you seemed to be dismissing my opinion simply because you thought it was too early to tell. 

 

Accepted.  And I do think it's too early to tell, but I must have written quite unclearly.  I didn't think I said anything about McKenzie putting up bigger numbers, or receiving numbers at all, in the post to which you replied.  That said I think we agree far more than we disagree.

 

First of all, if Shakir keeps working and avoids injury, I think there's no question he'll have a better career than McKenzie.  He's got better physical tools.  A guy with physically superior tools and equal smarts, want-to and work ethic will become a superior player.  We agree that McKenzie wasn't a real receiver until the end of 2020/2021, so spending 3 years of your career as a WR without great route-running abilities will inevitably ding your overall career.  It's to his credit that given a WR coach and a WR room that would teach, he set out to learn, but Shakir seems to be coming in at a higher level.

 

Shakir ran some great routes and a fine scramble drill on Sunday and showed sure soft hands making some difficult catches.  I'm just not clear that he's right now, as we stand, already 'All That' as a slot receiver.  I don't think he's been tested against top coverage yet, either man or zone.  I've seen him get open on some routes, but the craft of finding the gaps in the zone, not sure he's there.  He may be - I just haven't had a chance to see it.  So if you have, Great, but I'm looking and those aren't the receptions I see or even him getting a release and getting open.

 

I also don't believe one excellent game tells us who a player is.  That's probably another point where we may differ.  I wasn't ready to anoint Tua on the basis of a great half against the Ravens where their secondary laid an egg; he may be or may become The Man but I need to see more.  I wasn't ready to say "yep, he's the one!" about Allen until the 2nd half of 2019.

 

Anyway, Peace Out, and yes, Shakir does look very smooth when he runs, as does James Cook.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He doesn't have the same functional strength as Diggs and he does his best running in tight spaces. He can get jammed at the line (we have already seen that happen on a couple of snaps in the Tenneseee game) and I don't see him as a guy who can run past guys. He is much more a short distance separator. 

 

PSA that Diggs didn't leap into the league as the fully-developed guy we see today.  I think it took him a couple seasons to develop the release chops and the functional strength and the rest of the package we see today.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

PSA that Diggs didn't leap into the league as the fully-developed guy we see today.  I think it took him a couple seasons to develop the release chops and the functional strength and the rest of the package we see today.

 

Hmm. Disagree. I saw Diggs destroy one of the best corners in the league in Darius Slay as an outside guy in his rookie year. It was the first time I'd even heard of him let alone seen him play and I was totally sold there and then.

 

People seem to think I am down on Shakir. I am not and never have been. I think he is really talented. But I think he is a slot receiver and nothing the Bills coaches or personnel people have said or done leads me to believe they really see it any differently. Sure he can take snaps wide in certain packages. But he isn't Stefon Diggs. He isn't Cooper Kupp. Both comparisons have been made in this thread. He is far closer to a Julian Edelman than either of those guys. And that isn't a bad thing. Edelman was one of the best slot receivers in football.

[Scott7975]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The one thing that should be recognised here is that all those people who pushed back so hard on "he really isn't an outside receiver in the NFL he is a slot who can play the odd snap out there" should come and take their L now. 

 

Shakir is going to be a very fine slot receiver in this league. That is what he is.

 

Yes he is a slot receiver that can also play outside on occasion.  Are you saying he can't play outside?  Because he has and part of his draft profile praises his versatility of being able to play inside and outside as well as return kicks.  Im not sure why you are trying to call people out on this?  Pretty silly.  Im sure you dont want people calling you out on your Josh Allen prediction which was much worse lol.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes he is a slot receiver that can also play outside on occasion.  Are you saying he can't play outside?  Because he has and part of his draft profile praises his versatility of being able to play inside and outside as well as return kicks.  Im not sure why you are trying to call people out on this?  Pretty silly.  Im sure you dont want people calling you out on your Josh Allen prediction which was much worse lol.

 

I told people to call me out on that if I was wrong and they do, frequently. When I am wrong I own my wrongness. 

 

Shakir can't play outside as a full time guy, no. He can take snaps out there, he could maybe get you through a game out there with clever scheming but the argument was that he was their first guy in after Diggs and Davis. I said he wouldn't be and Kumerow was and that Shakir was way better suited to playing the slot. The evidence is now in on that one. 

 

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I told people to call me out on that if I was wrong and they do, frequently. When I am wrong I own my wrongness. 

 

Shakir can't play outside as a full time guy, no. He can take snaps out there, he could maybe get you through a game out there with clever scheming but the argument was that he was their first guy in after Diggs and Davis. I said he wouldn't be and Kumerow was and that Shakir was way better suited to playing the slot. The evidence is now in on that one. 

 

 

All good.  Im not ragging on you.  I just thought it was funny because I seen the comment in another thread.  It seemed pretty angry.  Everyone has an opinion and nobody is 100% right.

 

Thats all I ever thought of it was he could take snaps out there.  Not that he was going to be Diggs.

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

All good.  Im not ragging on you.  I just thought it was funny because I seen the comment in another thread.  It seemed pretty angry.  Everyone has an opinion and nobody is 100% right.

 

Thats all I ever thought of it was he could take snaps out there.  Not that he was going to be Diggs.

 

I have never claimed to ever be 100% right, nor is that even an aim. I have strong opinions, I don't sit on the fence. You have to accept that nobody bats 1.000.

 

But part of having opinions is holding your hands up when you are wrong and the "Shakir is their outside depth guy" were vitriolic 2 months ago against anyone who said "he is a slot receiver, Kumerow is their #3 outside". Time for some acceptance from that crowd that they whiffed.