Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

I'd be surprised if the line didn't move in favor of the Bills after watching that game. Not impressed with that performance.

 

 

Let's see if the hammer the line...Chiefs should have lost.

I don’t know…the Chiefs looked pretty impressive the last 40 minutes of the game.  I suspect the line doesn’t move much.

[Big Turk]

Just now, mannc said:

I don’t know…the Chiefs looked pretty impressive the last 40 minutes of the game.  I suspect the line doesn’t move much.

 

They were playing a 1-3 team. How impressive is it to hang on to win by a point because they were idiots?

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They were playing a 1-3 team. How impressive is it to hang on to win by a point because they were idiots?

I think the Raiders are pretty good team, despite their record.  Chiefs are clearly better, though

Edited October 11, 2022 by mannc

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

I think the Raiders are pretty good team, despite their record.  Chiefs are clearly better, though

 

Bill Parcells disagrees with you.

[harryS]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

If the Chiefs have a tough time with the Raiders, win or lose, bettors are going to hammer the Bills…probably drive this line to  Bills -3.5.

 

This game has zero chance of crossing 3 (!) or even touching 3 (except I suppose for a very brief moment at some rogue book, which is possible before it gets pushed back to 2.5).

 

Frankly you'll see some sharp money on KC as a home underdog later in the week with the Bills closing as -1 or pk.  These sharps will lose money because the Bills will win (I think) but most likely there will be more sharps on KC than Buffalo.

[Motor26]

9 minutes ago, mannc said:

I think the Raiders are pretty good team, despite their record.  Chiefs are clearly better, though

 

Derek Carr is almost as big of a bummer of a QB as Kirk Cousins, just can never come through in big moments.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They were playing a 1-3 team. How impressive is it to hang on to win by a point because they were idiots?

 

Raiders are a good 1-3 team. Record lies in their case. Not saying they are a super bowl contender but they are not the Broncos either.

[DapperCam]

KC has a horseshoe up their rear more than any team I’ve ever seen. There were about 6 dropped picks/reversed picks on penalties vs the Chargers and they still would have lost that game if not for a pick-6 late by Herbert. Then this game with all the ref shenanigans and terrible coaching decisions.

Edited October 11, 2022 by DapperCam

[Adamb412]

34 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I'd be surprised if the line didn't move in favor of the Bills after watching that game. Not impressed with that performance.

 

 

Let's see if the hammer the line...Chiefs should have lost.

Not a shot in hell this moved to 3.5.   

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Adamb412 said:

Not a shot in hell this moved to 3.5.   

I’m seeing -2.5 Bills 

[mannc]

28 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

Derek Carr is almost as big of a bummer of a QB as Kirk Cousins, just can never come through in big moments.

Very similar…Carr a little more athletic

[Mr. Wonderful]

Tyreek gone, but Buffalo has had no answer for Kelce who destroyed the Raiders tonight.  Gonna be tough to win in  KC even with short week for Chiefs.   

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

Tyreek gone, but Buffalo has had no answer for Kelce who destroyed the Raiders tonight.  Gonna be tough to win in  KC even with short week for Chiefs.   

 

We did it last year when they had both Hill and Kelce. Do people forget we went there in the regular season and won 38-20?

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Turk

[Mr. Wonderful]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

We did it last year when they had both Hill and Kelce. Do people forget we went there in the regular season and won 38-20?

 

Still bummed about Kelce beating Milano for game winning overtime TD in playoff game last year.  anyhow, two teams evenly matched with awesome talent at QB position.  Getcha popcorn ready!

[Big Turk]

Just now, Mr. Wonderful said:

 

Still bummed about Kelce beating Milano for game winning overtime TD in playoff game last year.  anyhow, two teams evenly matched with awesome talent at QB position.  Getcha popcorn ready!

 

They better get hands on him at the line and throw off the timing...no idea why they are giving him ANY free releases off the line.

[Zerovoltz]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Zero,

 

I look forward to your postgame analysis. Like you I didn't see this coming at all. Raiders currently up 17-0 as I type. That said, I was high on the Raiders this year prior to this game despite their 1-3 start. They have had a pretty tough schedule and some hard luck but they have been in every game, even blowing out the Cardinals at one point.

 

Thus far the Chiefs pass blocking has been terrible and the Chiefs don't seem to be making much of an effort at all to run the ball. And as I type this McKInnion rips a run for 20+ yards. Maybe the Chiefs should start running despite down 17 here.

 

My whole analysis and Buffalo Chiefs preview:

 

First...yes Chiefs pass blocking was bad.  I did not know until the game started we would have no Trey Smith.  The reason that matters for KC....as you can see, both of our OT, struggle wtih speed rushers. (like Von Miller!)  ....this isn't new to KC fans...and has been a problem for a while.  NORMALLY,  KC while struggling with this and having to live with it and work around it...have been able to because the interior 3 of Thuney, Humphrey and Smith do well to keep the interior clean.  Mahomes will step up into that and pass or slip out to the side and pass or run as the edge rushers get ridden around the back by our crappy tackles.  No Smith tonight meant Nick Allegrhetti...a servicable, but JAG backup G, started, and he was getting walked backward most of the night...and as you saw, Crosby and Jones coming around the edge got to Mahomes often...he had no pocket to step into.  Miller and Roussaue will be doing the same thing...the question will be KC's interior making a pocket or not.  If not...the Bills pass rush is going to kill us.  Smith, as far as I know was a gametime decision, and will be back next week barring a setback.

 

Second.  No Smith...didn't help in the run game.  Smith means alot in the run game.  He moves people.  ...and they had no confidence to run straight ahead.  KC did not call plays like they did with Smith VS Tampa's stout front....instead reverting to the worn out and mostly unsuccessful delayed handoff from the gun (I HATE THAT PLAY!)  With Smith, they run alot more quick hitters, straight ahead, move the pile type runs...You might get the idea that I am telling you Smith mean alot to KC's offense.  He's a big deal that isn't really nationally gotten noticed quite yet.  

 

Third.  Spagnuolos initial game plan was to blitz Carr and leave Adams in single coverage.  ....I would tell you that on the one hand, mostly KC got decent coverage, espeically when the rookie Watson was on him...but that doesn't matter much when you have a talent like Adams out there..he wins contested balls, and contests bad throws and draws well deserved PI penalties.  I get the logic here...Carr usually crumbles when blitzed...the Raiders did a good job picking it up and it was pretty easy then for carr to find an open target single covered.  To Spags credit...he realized that wasn't working and doubled up Adams the rest of the game...and Adams, being who he is, still juked double coverage and got a dime from Carr for that late TD.  

 

Fourth.  I'd love to give you some explanation about how KC's third ranked run D got ran over pretty hard by Jacobs, but Jacobs has those type games sometimes where he just runs hard grinds you down.  I did notice some bad tackling by KC defense...especially on back to back runs by Jabobs where  Juan Thornhill, fills the hole and makes LOW effort, failed attempts at tackles on consecutive plays.  Not good.  The Raiders do have games like this VS KC from time to time.  Not a great day for the run D.

 

Fifth.  Mahomes stat sheet looks nice for the game.  4 TD 280 yards or soemthing passing..no INTS...but he was bothered by the pass rush, and was uncomforable enough to miss plenty of chances when KC had dudes in man coverage.  That's been a problem all year but masked because KC converts alot of 3rd downs and have been decent in the red zone.  Too many big plays missed.  

 

Six.  Kc has been missing Harrison Butker...our good, reliable kicker.  It's cost points and Andy Ried calls plays wonky because he isn't trusting our street kickers much.  not sure if he'll be back for Bills or not.

 

KC, like good times sometimes have to do...win ugly games, overcome bad penalties and bad mistakes etc. so there is that.  

 

OK.  Bills game. 

 

The Bills are a better and more complete team.  KC has less margin for error than the Bills do.  

 

For KC to win - Need to get running game going downhill.  That means we need healthy O-line with Trey Smith ready to go.  If no Smith or limited Smith...won't be good for KC.  If KC can not make the Bills respect the run, Miller and Rousoue going to make it a long day.  KC will need no errors in kicking game....that is...if we opt for FG...that FG needs to count for 3.  That's pretty simple on O...keep Mahomes upright...Miller and others will be problems around edge no matter what...it's pretty much up to the interior to give mahomes a pocket and room to escape..if we have that, offesne will be fine.

 

On defense....contain Allen and make him throw.  KC will need to have some pass rush success with just 4.  They weren't all that great VS Raiders at getting there....If Allen stays clean, he'll pick apart the zone or just run for chunks.  I don't worry about the Bills run game, but if that gets going we are done.

 

For Bills to win, get at Mahomes...with just down 4 lineman if possible and make him beat the shell.  Don't let KC get ground game reved up like they did VS Tampa.  On offense...just keep whatever rush KC brings at Allen and force KC to stay in lanes.  If no rush getting there, Allen can break down coverage and attack if he needs to rush.  Don't make Turnovers that give KC short field and free points.

 

Bills the better team, and should be favored.  KC will need A type game and good game plan to win.  Doable...but Bills best team in AFC so this is clearly hardest game left on KC schedule...winner gets huge advantage for the 1 seed.  Alot at stake.  Also...this would be a game that goes along way toward determining the MVP award.  I'm looknig forward to it of course, but truly feel like KC is the underdog and should be.

[Big Blitz]

28 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

My whole analysis and Buffalo Chiefs preview:

 

First...yes Chiefs pass blocking was bad.  I did not know until the game started we would have no Trey Smith.  The reason that matters for KC....as you can see, both of our OT, struggle wtih speed rushers. (like Von Miller!)  ....this isn't new to KC fans...and has been a problem for a while.  NORMALLY,  KC while struggling with this and having to live with it and work around it...have been able to because the interior 3 of Thuney, Humphrey and Smith do well to keep the interior clean.  Mahomes will step up into that and pass or slip out to the side and pass or run as the edge rushers get ridden around the back by our crappy tackles.  No Smith tonight meant Nick Allegrhetti...a servicable, but JAG backup G, started, and he was getting walked backward most of the night...and as you saw, Crosby and Jones coming around the edge got to Mahomes often...he had no pocket to step into.  Miller and Roussaue will be doing the same thing...the question will be KC's interior making a pocket or not.  If not...the Bills pass rush is going to kill us.  Smith, as far as I know was a gametime decision, and will be back next week barring a setback.

 

Second.  No Smith...didn't help in the run game.  Smith means alot in the run game.  He moves people.  ...and they had no confidence to run straight ahead.  KC did not call plays like they did with Smith VS Tampa's stout front....instead reverting to the worn out and mostly unsuccessful delayed handoff from the gun (I HATE THAT PLAY!)  With Smith, they run alot more quick hitters, straight ahead, move the pile type runs...You might get the idea that I am telling you Smith mean alot to KC's offense.  He's a big deal that isn't really nationally gotten noticed quite yet.  

 

Third.  Spagnuolos initial game plan was to blitz Carr and leave Adams in single coverage.  ....I would tell you that on the one hand, mostly KC got decent coverage, espeically when the rookie Watson was on him...but that doesn't matter much when you have a talent like Adams out there..he wins contested balls, and contests bad throws and draws well deserved PI penalties.  I get the logic here...Carr usually crumbles when blitzed...the Raiders did a good job picking it up and it was pretty easy then for carr to find an open target single covered.  To Spags credit...he realized that wasn't working and doubled up Adams the rest of the game...and Adams, being who he is, still juked double coverage and got a dime from Carr for that late TD.  

 

Fourth.  I'd love to give you some explanation about how KC's third ranked run D got ran over pretty hard by Jacobs, but Jacobs has those type games sometimes where he just runs hard grinds you down.  I did notice some bad tackling by KC defense...especially on back to back runs by Jabobs where  Juan Thornhill, fills the hole and makes LOW effort, failed attempts at tackles on consecutive plays.  Not good.  The Raiders do have games like this VS KC from time to time.  Not a great day for the run D.

 

Fifth.  Mahomes stat sheet looks nice for the game.  4 TD 280 yards or soemthing passing..no INTS...but he was bothered by the pass rush, and was uncomforable enough to miss plenty of chances when KC had dudes in man coverage.  That's been a problem all year but masked because KC converts alot of 3rd downs and have been decent in the red zone.  Too many big plays missed.  

 

Six.  Kc has been missing Harrison Butker...our good, reliable kicker.  It's cost points and Andy Ried calls plays wonky because he isn't trusting our street kickers much.  not sure if he'll be back for Bills or not.

 

KC, like good times sometimes have to do...win ugly games, overcome bad penalties and bad mistakes etc. so there is that.  

 

OK.  Bills game. 

 

The Bills are a better and more complete team.  KC has less margin for error than the Bills do.  

 

For KC to win - Need to get running game going downhill.  That means we need healthy O-line with Trey Smith ready to go.  If no Smith or limited Smith...won't be good for KC.  If KC can not make the Bills respect the run, Miller and Rousoue going to make it a long day.  KC will need no errors in kicking game....that is...if we opt for FG...that FG needs to count for 3.  That's pretty simple on O...keep Mahomes upright...Miller and others will be problems around edge no matter what...it's pretty much up to the interior to give mahomes a pocket and room to escape..if we have that, offesne will be fine.

 

On defense....contain Allen and make him throw.  KC will need to have some pass rush success with just 4.  They weren't all that great VS Raiders at getting there....If Allen stays clean, he'll pick apart the zone or just run for chunks.  I don't worry about the Bills run game, but if that gets going we are done.

 

For Bills to win, get at Mahomes...with just down 4 lineman if possible and make him beat the shell.  Don't let KC get ground game reved up like they did VS Tampa.  On offense...just keep whatever rush KC brings at Allen and force KC to stay in lanes.  If no rush getting there, Allen can break down coverage and attack if he needs to rush.  Don't make Turnovers that give KC short field and free points.

 

Bills the better team, and should be favored.  KC will need A type game and good game plan to win.  Doable...but Bills best team in AFC so this is clearly hardest game left on KC schedule...winner gets huge advantage for the 1 seed.  Alot at stake.  Also...this would be a game that goes along way toward determining the MVP award.  I'm looknig forward to it of course, but truly feel like KC is the underdog and should be.

 

 

Excellent analysis.  I agree - your oline when healthy is a problem I think it's the strength of your team.  It's going to be the best we've seen so far especially in the middle (I expect Smith to play).  It should be the must watch battle of the night - so long as Oliver and Philips can go.  If not I'm very concerned.

 

If no pass rush I'm slightly worried about the young secondary - if you still had Hill thats a massive problem.  But these kids can stay with Hardman MVS and Taron on JuJu no problem.  If we have a pass rush - I think the Bills win this game.

 

But if no Poyer and a pass rush that is slowed down some, we'll need to score 35-40.  

 

 

You said it - what every DC thinks about our run game - they don't worry.  This is a problem that everyone understands that's why the CMC thread is blowing up.

 

 

Anyway I can't freaking wait.  This is the new Patriots-Colts it's must see TV for all football fans.  It's a surreal feeling that the Bills are that team and we have that QB.......I want to make sure I take some time to enjoy it all.

 

The real stress is January....lol. 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Scott7975]

11 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

 

They "only" lost to the Colts because of their kicker?  They scored 17 points.  I dont think they did that poorly "only" because of their kicker.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Motor26 said:

 

Derek Carr is almost as big of a bummer of a QB as Kirk Cousins, just can never come through in big moments.

 

Agree but I put that game on coaching.  Should have kicked the xp.  Shouldnt have gone deep on 4th and 1 when the running game worked all game long.

[GunnerBill]

Tuesday morning reflections:

 

1. Josh McDaniel has finally worked out what the identity of his team should be and it involves making Josh Jacobs a workhorse;

 

2. The Raiders actually played Kelce well on 2 of the 4 touchdowns and he still got free. He is just that good;

 

3. The Chiefs tackles really struggled with Jones and Crosby;

 

4. The Chiefs receivers are just okay. MVS is decent. Hardman and Juju are average players who occasionally make a play;

 

5. They are still never out of a game while they have Patrick Mahomes.