Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[RoyBatty is alive]

16 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Wonder if the line moves if some of our big injuries might seem to get better as the week goes on?

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

[TheWei44]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

Is it likely though? It's the regular season game of the year and a meeting of the best two teams in football, but what are the odds that the one seed comes down to the result of this game?

Totally agree - Huge game that will be over hyped.  Important game for wins/conf record/head-to-head but unlikely to, on its own, decide the one seed/HFA.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Process said:

If chiefs win by 10+ you win. If Bills win by 10+ I win. Loser donates to charity. You in?

That's not what I responded too. The original post called for 21 point plus blow out. 

[Process]

3 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Totally agree - Huge game that will be over hyped.  Important game for wins/conf record/head-to-head but unlikely to, on its own, decide the one seed/HFA.

It's actually very likely this game decides the 1 seed. We are talking about two teams that are going to lose very few games. This one game is important. Just like the Bills -titans game decided the 1 seed last year. 

[John from Riverside]

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Thus far, the raider defense has pretty much sucked. I don't see them stopping KC tonight. 

Confidence or just foolish homerism? No knowledgeable unbiased  football fan would.ever make such an outlandish prediction. Yet, it's welcomed with open arms. I get it but it's more likely tje Chiefs win by a blowout. 

These teams are pretty evenly matched : I don’t think a blowout by either is more likely. A close game is more probable. 

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

It’s about the only way I can see it changing by much. 

[NickelCity]

7 minutes ago, Process said:

It's actually very likely this game decides the 1 seed. We are talking about two teams that are going to lose very few games. This one game is important. Just like the Bills -titans game decided the 1 seed last year. 

 

I think the argument is over the word "likely." I believe it is more likely than not that this game does not determine the 1 seed. It's possible it does, of course, and I hope we win. 

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

I made this Bills -1.8 and bet the Bills ML -110 on the look ahead line when it was a pick 'em. BOL re-opened at Bills -2/-115. My numbers, of course, expect Edmunds and Poyer back, so this was a pure value grab for me, but damn I hate betting on the Bills.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, NickelCity said:

 

Is it likely though? It's the regular season game of the year and a meeting of the best two teams in football, but what are the odds that the one seed comes down to the result of this game?

 

I believe it does because when I look at the rest of the AFC it's mostly garbage outside MIA/BAL/CIN/LAC who I think will fill out the AFC playoff field along with BUF, KC + the AFCS Winner (who right now would be the Titans and Bills already handled them as well).

 

Bills already beat BAL and have another game against MIA and CIN late in the season.

 

I also believe this team is different now and not going to squander a regular season head to head victory against KC should that happen again this year. They understand they can't go there in the playoffs and let that decide their fate again. Make Mahomes and KC come to Buffalo at least have a better shot and winning the game.

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

4 hours ago, beebe said:

 

I mean, you can keep saying that sort of stuff. But it's not reflective of reality: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-how-much-home-field-advantage-worth-spread

 

So this is still where a ton of people get it wrong. HFA is different in every stadium and can even adjust based on the importance of the game. For example, the Bills, by my numbers have an HFA of about 1.22 in a neutral situation, but in a "big" game and the later in the season it gets it's closer to a 4 point adjustment. Part of the reason the Bills only get a 1.22 standard advantage from me is because the offense has been better on the road since the start of 2020, almost entirely because of the weather we see in Buffalo, and also because elite teams tend to have less variance on the road compared to their home games.

 

There are also a myriad of ways people calculate HFA and if you don't adjust for strength of opponent and things like expected points etc. you're going to be off on your number. I love the point from the article that technology has helped mitigate a lot of HFA, because things like travel schedules and sleep have massively changed how teams approach going on the road.

[newcam2012]

29 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

I don't think anyone will say the game is "unwinnable." That's just absurd. 

[Warcodered]

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

37 minutes ago, SACTOBILLSFAN said:

 

So this is still where a ton of people get it wrong. HFA is different in every stadium and can even adjust based on the importance of the game. For example, the Bills, by my numbers have an HFA of about 1.22 in a neutral situation, but in a "big" game and the later in the season it gets it's closer to a 4 point adjustment. Part of the reason the Bills only get a 1.22 standard advantage from me is because the offense has been better on the road since the start of 2020, almost entirely because of the weather we see in Buffalo, and also because elite teams tend to have less variance on the road compared to their home games.

 

There are also a myriad of ways people calculate HFA and if you don't adjust for strength of opponent and things like expected points etc. you're going to be off on your number. I love the point from the article that technology has helped mitigate a lot of HFA, because things like travel schedules and sleep have massively changed how teams approach going on the road.

Your evaluation of HFA ignores the point that the opposing team could be more significantly impacted by wind/weather than ours since our qb has a big arm that can throw tight spirals.  Not that it would’ve changed much lol but we had a massive HFA yesterday imo.  Sure it hurts our offense but if it hurts the other offense more that definitely qualifies as an advantage 
 

 

[LabattBlue]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

If by injuries you mean Mahomes and Kelce, yes, the line moves.  Anyone else...a blip on the radar.

[FilthyBeast]

2 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wonder if the line moves with any KC injuries tonight.

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

Raiders are better than the Steelers, no doubt and their Season, imo, is on the line tonight.  They lose tonight down  a tie break and by 3 games to the Chiefs.  Maybe an extra day an the dire position they are in will inspire McDaniel to come up with a winning game plan.

Edited October 10, 2022 by RoyBatty is alive

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is another thing that concerns me about KC, unlike years past they are the ones that are pretty much 100% healthy right now. And the only reason they lost to the colts was because one of the best kickers in the league got hurt in that one.

 

I think the only thing that would make the line move in KC's favor is they win something 45-0 because I think the Raiders are a much better one win team than the Steelers for what it's worth. Can also argue that Raiders season is somewhat on the line tonight at least for any hopes of staying in WC/Division title picture.

I expect the Raiders to give the Chiefs all they can handle tonight.  The Raiders are talented, can get after the passer, and this is a huge divisional game for them.  I think it's going to be a back-and-forth battle, similar to Ravens/Bengals last night, except higher scoring.

[BritBill]

I can’t wait for Sunday night. It’s going to be epic. It’s a great time to Bills fan. Soak it all in. 

[Jeffbigalls]

Just now, mannc said:

I expect the Raiders to give the Chiefs all they can handle tonight.  The Raiders are talented, can get after the passer, and this is a huge divisional game for them.  I think it's going to be a back-and-forth battle, similar to Ravens/Bengals last night, except higher scoring.

Could be but next week is huge for home field, the winner of the game will be in great shape

And mahomes has played 8 games vs raiders and they average 37ppg there

 

Just now, BritBill said:

I can’t wait for Sunday night. It’s going to be epic. It’s a great time to Bills fan. Soak it all in. 

Sunday afternoon 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

The Chiefs are going to give the Raiders a beat down tonight and the same saps on the board will be crying that the next game will be unwinnable

Contrast to a next game against a crappy team and people saying could be a repeat of last year's Jags game