Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, billvernsays said:

I’m seeing Bills - 1.5 at DraftKings 

 

That line changed quickly 

[strive_for_five_guy]

Love that the Chiefs have one less day of rest than us, they should have a tougher matchup tomorrow than we just had, and think our DL/LBs are going to create havoc for the Chiefs offense next week. Is this thing on?!

[Just Jack]

1 hour ago, henry jones said:

...and how is this game not in primetime??

 

CBS and FOX can protect a certain number of games from being flexed to Sunday Night. 

[BigAl2526]

I think this game will be within a point or 2 of a pickem game all week long.  I do think Buffalo is going to be healthier next week.  Hopefully, Edmunds, Poyer, McKenzie, Knox and even Benford are all back.

[BillsShredder83]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Rare underdog spot for the Bills but I get it. Chiefs are a damn good team...going to take a great effort on both sides of the ball to beat them in their house...

 

Over/Under 54 points 

 

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2022/10/9/23395422/bills-vs-chiefs-odds-week-6-nfl-predictions-early-picks-opening-point-spreads-total-moneyline

Damnnnnnnn it's already Bills -1.5

[beebe]

50 minutes ago, DrDare said:

Ive heard this too

 

but its definitely still 3 points and in some stadiums and situations even more

 

For example the home team on Thursday night game would get more than 3 points

 

I guess lines every time before looking and am extremely accurate

 

Its so easy for anyone to see when 2 teams are even its always -3 points to Home team

 

One team has to be clearly better to even move 1 point to -2 or -4

 

HFA being worth 3 points is terribly outdated. Homefield is widely viewed as a 1.5-point standard these days. A few teams - such as the Seahawks, Chiefs and likely the current version of the Bills stadium - are worth perhaps 2 points. Maybe 2.5 points in rare occasions. But I don't think any of them are worth more than that. Some are likely only worth 1 point (think LA Chargers or Vegas Raiders, who are essentially playing in neutral stadiums.) 

 

The use of instant replay and having so many on-field cameras has helped reduce referee bias and clean up mistakes.

 

Teams are smarter than ever before in terms of making travel accommodations. Road trips just aren't that bad anymore.

 

In the StubHub era, roughly half the league's teams don't have significant home-field advantages and many of them have home-field disadvantages in terms of the crowd when the road team is a traveling fan base (ie Buffalo, Kansas City, Dallas, Pittsburgh, etc.) 

 

Offensive teams communicate more efficiently than the old days. Watch old videos from the 90s and notice how often teams break the huddle with 10 secs left on the play clock and then are racing to get the snap off as the home crowd roars. Nowadays, teams break the huddle faster and are not pressed against the clock like they used to be (aside from Nathaniel Hackett's Broncos.) I don't have data beyond 2009, but that year there was 21.41 false starts per team, compared to just 18.09 false starts per team in 2019. 

 

Add it all together: You have easier, more accommodating travel for players; you have fairer refs whose biases get cleaned up by replay; you have home fields that are in many cases being overran by visiting fans; and you have road teams who are more adept at communicating in the environments that are truly hostile. 

[ehfeuh57]

5 hours ago, beebe said:

 

HFA being worth 3 points is terribly outdated. Homefield is widely viewed as a 1.5-point standard these days. A few teams - such as the Seahawks, Chiefs and likely the current version of the Bills stadium - are worth perhaps 2 points. Maybe 2.5 points in rare occasions. But I don't think any of them are worth more than that. Some are likely only worth 1 point (think LA Chargers or Vegas Raiders, who are essentially playing in neutral stadiums.) 

 

The use of instant replay and having so many on-field cameras has helped reduce referee bias and clean up mistakes.

 

Teams are smarter than ever before in terms of making travel accommodations. Road trips just aren't that bad anymore.

 

In the StubHub era, roughly half the league's teams don't have significant home-field advantages and many of them have home-field disadvantages in terms of the crowd when the road team is a traveling fan base (ie Buffalo, Kansas City, Dallas, Pittsburgh, etc.) 

 

Offensive teams communicate more efficiently than the old days. Watch old videos from the 90s and notice how often teams break the huddle with 10 secs left on the play clock and then are racing to get the snap off as the home crowd roars. Nowadays, teams break the huddle faster and are not pressed against the clock like they used to be (aside from Nathaniel Hackett's Broncos.) I don't have data beyond 2009, but that year there was 21.41 false starts per team, compared to just 18.09 false starts per team in 2019. 

 

Add it all together: You have easier, more accommodating travel for players; you have fairer refs whose biases get cleaned up by replay; you have home fields that are in many cases being overran by visiting fans; and you have road teams who are more adept at communicating in the environments that are truly hostile. 

 

There only a few people that actually set the lines and its the very first offshore site and everyone else follows closely so unless you hear from those few people...

 

I do guess them and have extreme accuracy

 

Its 3 points still

 

there are "home town calls" thats a massive thing

they know what cleats to wear and know the field surface inaccuracies

the opposing fans can get to them

chance of having a bad night sleep is more likely

[GunnerBill]

I did predict they would be a slight underdog in KC. It was the only game on the schedule I didn't think they'd be favoured in.

[eball]

10 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Can someone explain to me why we’re playing at KC for two years in a row? 

 

There have only been roughly 40 threads on this subject.  Go find one.

 

Kidding (sort of).  It’s all based upon a specific formula.  There is no gamesmanship and it isn’t “unfair.”  Those are just the breaks.

 

8 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

lets wait and see how this Raiders game goes along with any injuries that might come out of it before we go to far down the road of speculating on this.

 

Knock yourself out, brother.  This is a Bills board and we’ll do what we want.  That ok with you?

 

[downunderbill]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

They already scored.  I need to go open a thread about how the best TE in the league beat a rookie and McD should be fired and Beane shouldn't be managing a Dick's Sporting Good store let alone a professional football team.  And Allen sucks.

 

I think I got most of it.

 

My god it's like I'm in a gameday thread.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

lets wait and see how this Raiders game goes along with any injuries that might come out of it before we go to far down the road of speculating on this.

You're not my real dad. You can't tell me what to do 

[beebe]

3 hours ago, DrDare said:

 

There only a few people that actually set the lines and its the very first offshore site and everyone else follows closely so unless you hear from those few people...

 

I do guess them and have extreme accuracy

 

Its 3 points still

 

there are "home town calls" thats a massive thing

they know what cleats to wear and know the field surface inaccuracies

the opposing fans can get to them

chance of having a bad night sleep is more likely

 

I mean, you can keep saying that sort of stuff. But it's not reflective of reality: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-how-much-home-field-advantage-worth-spread

[HOUSE]

Easy win for the Bills

See you in the playoffs...bye

[JohnNord]

14 hours ago, The Red King said:

Given that our team is the walking wounded, playing on the road, makes sense.

They really aren’t the walking wounded.  A number of players should back next week near full health leaving the injury list at Hyde, Kumerow, Benford and Crowder 

[Process]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I did predict they would be a slight underdog in KC. It was the only game on the schedule I didn't think they'd be favoured in.

They were underdogs for about 5 minutes. Already -2.5.

[njbuff]

It’s Raiders-Chiefs tonight and that is usually a blood and guts rivalry.

 

Point is, the Raiders do play the Chiefs well from time to time and hopefully the Raiders soften them up a little bit.

 

Maybe Crosby can level Mahomes a few times tonight.

[BillsFanSD]

Not that it really matters much, but I use Vegas Insider for point spreads.  They've had the Bills as slight favorites in this game since before the season started.

[Low Positive]

The lines are shifting towards the Bills at -1.5 or -2.5, but that could all change depending on how the Chiefs look tonight. If they stomp the Raiders, it may shift back their way. But this is a classic pick 'em game between two heavyweights. 

[Zerovoltz]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

There have only been roughly 40 threads on this subject.  Go find one.

 

Kidding (sort of).  It’s all based upon a specific formula.  There is no gamesmanship and it isn’t “unfair.”  Those are just the breaks.

 

 

Knock yourself out, brother.  This is a Bills board and we’ll do what we want.  That ok with you?

 

 

I should have put this differently.  Speculate all you want.....what I was leaning to was that it's a little early for a solid line without seeing what happens Monday night first.  

[Mango]

14 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

So that's as much as to say Bills are favored by 2 points on a neutral field.  Don't disagree with the assessment.

Home field doesn’t get 3 points anymore. It’s right around 1.5 depending on the match up. 
 

This is basically a pick ‘em game.