Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[Bills2022]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills went to Arrowhead last year because they didn’t have a tied record with the Chiefs, so the head to head didn’t come into play. Pinning it on one particular loss is silly. They were blown out by the Colts, lost at TEN etc. A different outcome in any of those games would have counted just as much in the final standings.

 

Bills beat Jags and they have the same record as the Chiefs and the Bills win the tie-breaker with the head to head win.   Losing to the Colts and Titans is no big deal.  Losing to the Jaguars was a big deal.  

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Bills2022

[Boatdrinks]

29 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

We all thought the AFCW would be a tough division but the Raiders are 1-4 and the Broncos might be the most disappointing team in the league given what expectations were. Still have hope the Chargers can knock them off.

The AFCW as a division isn’t living up to the prognostications, that’s for sure. I’ve already written that possibility off. By knock them off, I’m referring to the playoffs. A Chiefs loss in a sudden death one game scenario like a playoff game is probably the best chance for the Bills not to face KC in the playoffs this season. 

2 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

 

Bills beat Jags and they have the same record as the Chiefs and the Bills win the tie-breaker with the head to head win.   Losing to the Colts and Titans is no big deal.  Losing to the Jaguars was a big deal.  

 

A Bills win vs Titans or Colts would have resulted in the same scenario , because the head to head win is the first tiebreaker. They were a VERY big deal in the Bills not having home field for the playoff matchup. 

[Mat68]

5 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills went to Arrowhead last year because they didn’t have a tied record with the Chiefs, so the head to head didn’t come into play. Pinning it on one particular loss is silly. They were blown out by the Colts, lost at TEN etc. A different outcome in any of those games would have counted just as much in the final standings.

Buffalos only loss is vs Miami an AFC loss.  Losing to Gb is better than KC.   Losing the game to Pittsburgh at Tennessee and  at Jacksonville were the games you look at for costing the number 1 seed.  Fixing those and maintaing the KC game is key.  Make Mahomes leave Arrowhead.  Brady vs Manning was alot more Manning at Brady.  That was why Brady led that series in the playoffs.

[Jauronimo]

25 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

 

So what? That doesn't mean if we beat them this year we are still going back to Arrowhead.  We went to Arrowhead last year because we lost the the Jaguars.  

 

This game is crucial for the #1 seed.  

 

Thats the ***** point!! This one game is nice for seedings but its just one game!!  Congrats on catching up with the rest of the class.

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Buffalos only loss is vs Miami an AFC loss.  Losing to Gb is better than KC.   Losing the game to Pittsburgh at Tennessee and  at Jacksonville were the games you look at for costing the number 1 seed.  Fixing those and maintaing the KC game is key.  Make Mahomes leave Arrowhead.  Brady vs Manning was alot more Manning at Brady.  That was why Brady led that series in the playoffs.

I concur on Manning vs Brady. As for last season, a win vs Colts would have given the Bills home field vs KC for the playoff game as well. You could actually look at ANY loss the Bills had last year and say that , even an NFC loss though I don’t think they had one. You could put the MNF debacle back New England in there too. Loss to the Jaguars counted the same as all of them. While losing to say, the Packers is not as critical as a head to head to KC, it could still foil the quest for overall HFA. 

[harryS]

9 hours ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

People should really look into this more.  Just going by the metrics, I would make KC a +8 on this game.  The Bills are destroying long standing measurables on all-time great teams.  It's an undeniable fact.  Whether that holds up over the course of a season remains to be seen but as far as "right now" goes...Bills should handedly beat the Chiefs. 

 

I adjusted the spread on my Caeser's bet to Bills -8.  I hope it works out, but I am simply looking at the metrics for both teams and at face value it's a no brainer.

 

It's just small-sample size, guys.  I love our team but we're not some all-time great team.  Likewise, Geno Smith isn't the best QB in the NFL. 

 

Spread back to 2.5 in most places now, as expected. And I could see it going lower as some sharps continue to relish getting KC as a home dog.

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, harryS said:

 

It's just small-sample size, guys.  I love our team but we're not some all-time great team.  Likewise, Geno Smith isn't the best QB in the NFL. 

 

Spread back to 2.5 in most places now, as expected. And I could see it going lower as some sharps continue to relish getting KC as a home dog.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that I’m trying to remember when the Super Bowl bills were in the top three on both offense and defense

 

As fans we like to point out the negatives of our team that’s going to happen I get that but overall the bills are extremely good Josh Allen looks like not just an MVP caliber quarterback but if he continues his trajectory a Hall of Famer

[harryS]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I wouldn’t be so sure about that I’m trying to remember when the Super Bowl bills were in the top three on both offense and defense

 

As fans we like to point out the negatives of our team that’s going to happen I get that but overall the bills are extremely good Josh Allen looks like not just an MVP caliber quarterback but if he continues his trajectory a Hall of Famer

 

Josh can be a Hall of Famer without this being one of the best teams of all time.  I would think our OL eliminates us from that conversation, and let's see if the D can get healthy enough to realize their potential.  With decent health, the Bills look to be the best team in football this year, and that's more than enough for me.  Just win the Super Bowl please so we can have this debate in February.

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

11 hours ago, harryS said:

 

It's just small-sample size, guys.  I love our team but we're not some all-time great team.  Likewise, Geno Smith isn't the best QB in the NFL. 

 

Spread back to 2.5 in most places now, as expected. And I could see it going lower as some sharps continue to relish getting KC as a home dog.

 

 Maybe we are, maybe we're not. I'm not here to decide for you, but let's take a look at some facts, as for Geno Allen crushes his stats so why would he be considered the best QB? Anyways let's take a look at some stats and facts...

 

 Offense:

 Yards per game - #1

 Points per game - #2

 

Defense:

 Yards allowed per game: #2

 Points allowed per game: T-#1

 Takeaways - T-#1

 

Currently we have a 91 point differential which is on pace for a 309.4 point differential, 2nd greatest of all-time. And the back half of our schedule is much easier than the front half.

 

 Now to be a truly great team you need a dominant player, enter Josh Allen.

 

Most total yards per game by a QB/season:

 Drew Brees - 347.63 YPG

 Josh this year - 375.2 YPG

 

Most total TDs per game by a QB/season:

 Peyton Manning - 3.5 TDs per game

 Josh this year - 3.2 TDs per game

 

If Josh was his own team and thusly  we removed Buffalo from the rankings, Josh would rank T-#3 in total TDs with 16 and he would rank #7 in total yards with 1,876.

 

 People seem to be loving KC's offense of late. KC's total yards 1,907 - Josh by himself 1,876.

 

 J. Cook scored his first TD of his career at the 10 minute mark of the 4th quarter in Sunday's game against the Steelers, it was the 1st TD this year that Josh hadn't thrown or ran it in. I've never heard of something like that happening this far into the season and I've been watching football since the 70's. 

 

 Right there is a list of stats and facts supporting that they may indeed be on pace to being considered one of the greatest all-time teams ever and definitely one of the greatest since the salary cap came into effect.

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills went to Arrowhead last year because they didn’t have a tied record with the Chiefs, so the head to head didn’t come into play. Pinning it on one particular loss is silly. They were blown out by the Colts, lost at TEN etc. A different outcome in any of those games would have counted just as much in the final standings.

Exactly,  we could actually lose Sunday then roll off 11 straight going 15-2 and likely winning home field. Just don't lose games we're supposed to win.

[Scott7975]

On 10/11/2022 at 2:20 PM, Big Turk said:

 

Andrews has had 1 1,000 yard season, Kelce has had 6 in a row...I'd say that is quite a big difference.  Perhaps the biggest difference is Mahomes throwing him the ball versus LJ.

 

It was almost half of Lamars yards

[harryS]

On 10/13/2022 at 8:08 AM, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Maybe we are, maybe we're not. I'm not here to decide for you, but let's take a look at some facts, as for Geno Allen crushes his stats so why would he be considered the best QB? Anyways let's take a look at some stats and facts...

 

 Offense:

 Yards per game - #1

 Points per game - #2

 

Defense:

 Yards allowed per game: #2

 Points allowed per game: T-#1

 Takeaways - T-#1

 

 

You write as if this is a coin-flip situation.  Maybe tomorrow is nuclear Armageddon, maybe it's not :-)

 

The fact is the odds are extremely against any team becoming one of the GOATs.  While it's not literally impossible, I find it unlikely that a team with our offensive line and our banged up defense ends up being a GOAT-type team.  If Mahomes takes advantage of our banged-up secondary like Pickett sometimes did, we're a 4-2 team as of Sunday.

 

Again, I'm very confident in this team and believe we have the best team if the defense can get reasonably healthy and gels.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 10/12/2022 at 2:29 PM, Mat68 said:

Buffalos only loss is vs Miami an AFC loss.  Losing to Gb is better than KC.   Losing the game to Pittsburgh at Tennessee and  at Jacksonville were the games you look at for costing the number 1 seed.  Fixing those and maintaing the KC game is key.  Make Mahomes leave Arrowhead.  Brady vs Manning was alot more Manning at Brady.  That was why Brady led that series in the playoffs.

Losing to the Jags was the supreme embarrassment. Under no circumstances should we ever have lost that game. The Pittsburgh & Wind game NE loss get honorable mention.  I don't mind losing to quality teams like KC or Baltimore/ Tenn.  But losing to scrub teams cost us a SB (home field) last year.

[What a Tuel]

On 10/12/2022 at 4:47 PM, Jauronimo said:

We beat them last year and yet we still played them in Arrowhead last year. It almost like this one game doesn't determine anything.

 

Why don't you respond to something that was written rather than make up ***** for the purposes of upsetting yourself?

 

If we would have lost to them then the Jags game wouldnt have mattered. So this game does determine something.

 

The actual comparison to last year is the Titans game and we would have had #1 seed last year if we won that one.

 

Meaning we would have played KC in AFC Championship game in Buffalo if all else played out the same (we would've likely had to beat the bengals in divisional round first). We wouldn't have gotten that sweet sweet patriot blowout though so thats a silver lining.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

The fact is the odds are extremely against any team becoming one of the GOATs.  While it's not literally impossible, I find it unlikely that a team with our offensive line and our banged up defense ends up being a GOAT-type team. 

 

That begs the question what exactly is a GOAT team? I think we would have to define that first.

 

2007 Patriots obviously are one even without the title.

 

Are the 85 Bears another?

1999 Rams?

1972 Dolphins?

2000 Ravens?

 

I think there has to be a higher than normal level of regular season win dominance to qualify as a GOAT team. So that would eliminate teams like the 1999 Rams and 2000 Ravens. Really we are looking for 15-1 or now, 16-1 or better records as the first step of qualification.

 

[BillsShredder83]

On 10/12/2022 at 5:13 PM, RocCityRoller said:

Profootball reference also has a similar metric called SRS. It looks at a lot of things like strength of schedule, point differential etc, but it's flaw is it is cumulative for the season, so injury impact to top players is understated in the moment.

The Bills are at an absurd 20.55

KC is at a very good 4.49

Negative values are allowed and common.

 

The Profootball reference idea is that you could take two teams SRS and subtract them for a base point spread on a neutral field based on past performance.

20.5-4.5 = 16 points. -3 for generic home field and it's still -13 Buffalo.

 

To put 20.55 into perspective:

The 2007 Pats (16-0) had a SRS of 20.06

The 2001 Rams (14-2) had a SRS of 13.35

The 2019 Chiefs had an SRS of 9.14

The 1990 Bills, who many consider the best team to not win a Super Bowl had an SRS of 8.65

 

It's just another analytical value to throw into the pot for discussion.  It does not consider new injuries etc. I have found a few gambling opportunities double checking SRS, especially later in the season when the data set is larger and I adjust for impact injuries.

Can you send a link either private or on here? I sort of found an explanation of it but I'm not seeing actual scores 

[RocCityRoller]

2 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Can you send a link either private or on here? I sort of found an explanation of it but I'm not seeing actual scores 

It's hidden under the 'Season' tab

2022 is inked below, you click back to past seasons. Buffalo had a 9.8 SRS last season, which was 2nd best (Dallas 9.9)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/

 

Here is some detail to how it is calculated

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/index.htm

 

It has some flaws/ things to consider

- Blowouts have more impact than close wins

- road wins count more

 

Buffalo winning by blow out on the road has pushed the SRS really high so far. As they play more home games it will drop some

[Zerovoltz]

On 10/10/2022 at 11:56 PM, Zerovoltz said:

 

OK.  Bills game. 

 

The Bills are a better and more complete team.  KC has less margin for error than the Bills do.  

 

For KC to win - Need to get running game going downhill.  KC did NOT get running game going downhill.  That means we need healthy O-line with Trey Smith ready to go.  If no Smith or limited Smith...won't be good for KC.  If KC can not make the Bills respect the run, Miller and Rousoue going to make it a long day. Von Miller was huge in this game.  KC will need no errors in kicking game....that is...if we opt for FG...that FG needs to count for 3.  KC missed a field goal.  That's pretty simple on O...keep Mahomes upright...Miller and others will be problems around edge no matter what...it's pretty much up to the interior to give mahomes a pocket and room to escape..if we have that, offesne will be fine.  Couldn't run effectively, pass rush getting to Mahomes too much.  Missed a field goal.  Not good enough.

 

On defense....contain Allen and make him throw.  KC will need to have some pass rush success with just 4.  They weren't all that great VS Raiders at getting there....If Allen stays clean, he'll pick apart the zone or just run for chunks.  KC couldn't get there with 4.  Blitzes worked for a while but eventually Allen beat it. I don't worry about the Bills run game, but if that gets going we are done.

 

For Bills to win, get at Mahomes...with just down 4 lineman if possible and make him beat the shell.  Don't let KC get ground game reved up like they did VS Tampa.  On offense...just keep whatever rush KC brings at Allen and force KC to stay in lanes.  If no rush getting there, Allen can break down coverage and attack if he needs to rush.  Don't make Turnovers that give KC short field and free points.  Mission accomplished for the Bills.

 

Bills the better team, and should be favored.  KC will need A type game and good game plan to win.  Doable...but Bills best team in AFC so this is clearly hardest game left on KC schedule...winner gets huge advantage for the 1 seed.  Alot at stake.  Also...this would be a game that goes along way toward determining the MVP award.  I'm looknig forward to it of course, but truly feel like KC is the underdog and should be.

 

SEE ABOVE FOR MY ADDED COMMENTS

 

Welp....that played out about like I said it would.  Congratulations!  ....rest of season will be about seeing if Bills can secure that 1 seed.  Hopefully we will see you again in Buffalo in the playoffs!  

 

All in all...another enjoyable game between KC and the Bills.  Disappointed Mahomes couldn't bring it home at the end.  

Edited October 17, 2022 by Zerovoltz

[NoHuddleKelly12]

6 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

SEE ABOVE FOR MY ADDED COMMENTS

 

Welp....that played out about like I said it would.  Congratulations!  ....rest of season will be about seeing if Bills can secure that 1 seed.  Hopefully we will see you again in Buffalo in the playoffs!  

 

All in all...another enjoyable game between KC and the Bills.  Disappointed Mahomes couldn't bring it home at the end.  

Respect you come over to doff your cap after a hard fought game. It’s obvious the Bills and Chiefs are the best 2 teams in football today, and it ain’t close between them and #3, whoever that might be!

[PrimeTime101]

-3.5? Sounds about right