Early Bills/Chiefs line: Bills +1(UPDATE: Now Bills -3 post KC/LV Game)

[atlbillsfan1975]

22 hours ago, Boyst62 said:

i've seen the chiefs as 6-2 when under dogs and that lists them against the spread at 7-0-1. hmmph

I think the Chiefs are going to be plenty motivated for this game no matter what. They have last year's loss at home and the narrative that had Buffalo won the toss in the playoffs they would have won the game. 

[boyst]

10 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I think the Chiefs are going to be plenty motivated for this game no matter what. They have last year's loss at home and the narrative that had Buffalo won the toss in the playoffs they would have won the game. 

I have seen them play. They are not focused like we would have seen before and I just don't see the same thing we have seen the past few years. 

 

They don't inspire me because they don't look to be inspired themselves. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Boyst62

[BIGFOOTspaceman]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

People keep wanting to downplay this team as to how good they are but when you are shattering metrics by the 2007 Patriots and 2001 Greatest Show on Turf Rams, that's telling you this team has the potential to be an all-time great team in the history of the NFL.

 

Now they just have to go do it.

 

This is a matchup of a very good to possible great team in the Chiefs against a potential all time team in the Bills. Most people don't see it yet but it's pretty clear when you look at the metrics and how much better the Bills are than the 2nd place teams in them and how they compare to teams like the 2007 Patriots and 2001 Greatest Show on Turf Rams.

 

.

538 Elo rankings have the Bills first at 1696 and the closest team to them is the Chiefs at 1647. The 49 point gap between the first place Bills and second place Chiefs is more than the gap between the Chiefs and the 43 points to the 6th placed 49ers. In others words, there are the Bills and then there is everyone else.

 

Allen is far and away the QB ELO leader as well at 302 with Mahomes a distant second at 264.

People should really look into this more.  Just going by the metrics, I would make KC a +8 on this game.  The Bills are destroying long standing measurables on all-time great teams.  It's an undeniable fact.  Whether that holds up over the course of a season remains to be seen but as far as "right now" goes...Bills should handedly beat the Chiefs. 

 

I adjusted the spread on my Caeser's bet to Bills -8.  I hope it works out, but I am simply looking at the metrics for both teams and at face value it's a no brainer.

[Rico]

22 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:

I have seen them play. They are not focused like we would have seen before and I just don't see the same thing we have seen the past few years. 

 

They don't inspire me because they don't look to be inspired themselves. 

I think KC will be fired up and focused for this game, no doubt. Doesn’t matter, they are still getting an ass-kicking.

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

Wow!  What an absurd movement in the line.   That’s crazy, everyone and their mothers must have been taking the Bills.   No doubt that the Bills are the team that the public believes is the best in the NFL.

Everyone but a few doubters on this board.  They are surely betting heavily in favor of the Chiefs.

[Jauronimo]

KC has a bad habit of playing to level of their opponent.  Its why they play close games against questionable teams.  We will get their A game no doubt.  

 

A win this week would be great for the seedings but its not a big deal either way.  Much like last year, the regular season game doesn't mean much.  These teams are destined to meet again in January for the next 5 years.

[billsbackto81]

5 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

KC has a bad habit of playing to level of their opponent.  Its why they play close games against questionable teams.  We will get their A game no doubt.  

 

A win this week would be great for the seedings but its not a big deal either way.  Much like last year, the regular season game doesn't mean much.  These teams are destined to meet again in January for the next 5 years.

Solid point, but it would be nice to play these guys at home in January for once. 

[Billznut]

9 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

Solid point, but it would be nice to play these guys at home in January for once. 

Win Sunday and they should. Although that didn’t work out for Buffalo last year. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 10/11/2022 at 2:09 PM, Adamb412 said:

Andrews not much different than Kelce and we shut him down

He’s a lot different 

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Billznut said:

Win Sunday and they should. Although that didn’t work out for Buffalo last year. 

We have yet to play them in our house in the playoffs.

[RiotAct]

36 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

We have yet to play them in our house in the playoffs.

not true… we played them in the AFCCG in the early 90s in Orchard Park (when Joe Montana was their QB).  And I believe at least once back in the 1960s, but I could be wrong about that.

[billsbackto81]

1 minute ago, RiotAct said:

not true… we played them in the AFCCG in the early 90s in Orchard Park (when Joe Montana was their QB).  And I believe at least once back in the 1960s, but I could be wrong about that.

I know dude, I'm talking about this century.

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, billsbackto81 said:

Solid point, but it would be nice to play these guys at home in January for once. 

I’d actually prefer another team knocks KC off. I want the Bills to have the best chance of winning a championship game at home in January. I can’t get on board with that best chance scenario including Pat Mahomes on the opposing sideline. 

[PrimeTime101]

Kelse seems to me is the biggest threat. Mahomes is leaning on him heavily this year. First 5 yards have a LB on him then rotate to Safety on bigger plays. Kelse needs to be bumped every rout he runs. When Klien bumped him, Kelse struggled.

[Bills2022]

2 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

KC has a bad habit of playing to level of their opponent.  Its why they play close games against questionable teams.  We will get their A game no doubt.  

 

A win this week would be great for the seedings but its not a big deal either way.  Much like last year, the regular season game doesn't mean much.  These teams are destined to meet again in January for the next 5 years.

 

Really, so playing in Arrowhead was the same as had we played in Orchard Park?  Give me a break.  And as for the two teams being destined to meet for the next 5 years, let's not forget neither of these teams even made the Super Bowl last year.  AFC is loaded with young talent. 

 

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Bills2022 said:

 

Really, so playing in Arrowhead was the same as had we played in Orchard Park?  Give me a break.  And as for the two teams being destined to meet for the next 5 years, let's not forget neither of these teams even made the Super Bowl last year.  AFC is loaded with young talent. 

 

We beat them last year and yet we still played them in Arrowhead last year. It almost like this one game doesn't determine anything.

 

Why don't you respond to something that was written rather than make up ***** for the purposes of upsetting yourself?

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’d actually prefer another team knocks KC off. I want the Bills to have the best chance of winning a championship game at home in January. I can’t get on board with that best chance scenario including Pat Mahomes on the opposing sideline. 

 

We all thought the AFCW would be a tough division but the Raiders are 1-4 and the Broncos might be the most disappointing team in the league given what expectations were. Still have hope the Chargers can knock them off.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Greg S

[Bills2022]

16 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

We beat them last year and yet we still played them in Arrowhead last year. It almost like this one game doesn't determine anything.

 

Why don't you respond to something that was written rather than make up ***** for the purposes of upsetting yourself?

 

So what? That doesn't mean if we beat them this year we are still going back to Arrowhead.  We went to Arrowhead last year because we lost the the Jaguars.  

 

This game is crucial for the #1 seed.  

 

[RocCityRoller]

4 hours ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

People should really look into this more.  Just going by the metrics, I would make KC a +8 on this game.  The Bills are destroying long standing measurables on all-time great teams.  It's an undeniable fact.  Whether that holds up over the course of a season remains to be seen but as far as "right now" goes...Bills should handedly beat the Chiefs. 

 

I adjusted the spread on my Caeser's bet to Bills -8.  I hope it works out, but I am simply looking at the metrics for both teams and at face value it's a no brainer.

Profootball reference also has a similar metric called SRS. It looks at a lot of things like strength of schedule, point differential etc, but it's flaw is it is cumulative for the season, so injury impact to top players is understated in the moment.

The Bills are at an absurd 20.55

KC is at a very good 4.49

Negative values are allowed and common.

 

The Profootball reference idea is that you could take two teams SRS and subtract them for a base point spread on a neutral field based on past performance.

20.5-4.5 = 16 points. -3 for generic home field and it's still -13 Buffalo.

 

To put 20.55 into perspective:

The 2007 Pats (16-0) had a SRS of 20.06

The 2001 Rams (14-2) had a SRS of 13.35

The 2019 Chiefs had an SRS of 9.14

The 1990 Bills, who many consider the best team to not win a Super Bowl had an SRS of 8.65

 

It's just another analytical value to throw into the pot for discussion.  It does not consider new injuries etc. I have found a few gambling opportunities double checking SRS, especially later in the season when the data set is larger and I adjust for impact injuries.

[Boatdrinks]

6 minutes ago, Bills2022 said:

 

So what? That doesn't mean if we beat them this year we are still going back to Arrowhead.  We went to Arrowhead last year because we lost the the Jaguars.  

 

This game is crucial for the #1 seed.  

 

The Bills went to Arrowhead last year because they didn’t have a tied record with the Chiefs, so the head to head didn’t come into play. Pinning it on one particular loss is silly. They were blown out by the Colts, lost at TEN etc. A different outcome in any of those games would have counted just as much in the final standings.