Props Bets - Noob here

[BillsShredder83]

14 hours ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Save your money. You'll eventually lose. And, it takes away from game enjoyment, cuz you care about your bet as much or more than the actual game. Take it from a stubborn dumb ass who had to learn the hard way. Makes you feel like a chump too. 

I don't bet bills games usually. Sometimes I'll take us on spread and parlay a josh rushing td or something similar.

 

It's more fun to do it outside bills timeslot

[Logic]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

This what I’m looking for.  What site do you use?

Fanduel and DraftKings are the big ones.

I just started using Draftkings for the exact thing you're talking about. I wanted to lay down small, silly bets -- between $1 and $5 -- on prop bets. Draft Kings has a "same game parlay" option. So you can pick however many things you want within a given game and place a wager. 

If you pick the right things or stack enough of them, you can theoretically turn $1 into decent winnings. Obviously, the odds of doing so are not great, but it's $1, so who really cares?

I've found it to be a fun way to add some viewing interest to single viewing window games, like the London games or otherwise uninteresting Thursday night games. 

[gonzo1105]

I prefer fan duel but like other posters said your going to lose more than you win . Even the sharps only win at like a 52% clip.  I won 4,000 off a couple nice bets but immediately lost 2,500 of it back and was like nope done with this. 
 

I agree with the other poster either small bets or a small parlay bet that you will lose a lot but if you win once in a blue moon you’ll make it back and then some 

[Virgil]

I like playing blackjack and have been to a casino maybe 5 times in my life. 

 

I would take $200 with me and turn that into chips.  I would only put $100 on the table.  If I made $100, then I would put $100 back into my pocket that I would keep and not bet.  If I lost the $100, I moved onto the next.  At the end of the night, I never bet more than my original $100 and would be there for 2-3 hours playing.  In my head, $200 for 3 hours of entertainment was acceptable.  If I made $100 or more, in $100 increments, those were my winnings to keep betting or do whatever I wanted with it.

 

I played at the $10-$15 dollar tables.  I know that I can get addicted to things, hence collecting certain things, so I had to create a structure for myself that included acceptable losses. 

[BullBuchanan]

My advice to is not bet on anything you have an emotional investment in. If you want to ignore that, at least bet moneyline so you aren't upset that your team won but your bet didn't win.

I lost ~$17k playing poker in the late aughts because I didn't understand how to manage my bankroll and when it was time to go home. The fact that the casino was two blocks away provided a great excuse to play every day, regardless if I was feeling up to it or if the conditions were right. I'd have a lot of winning sessions, but it doesn't take a lot of losers to put you in the red when your volume is high. $100 here or there adds up really quick over 300+ sessions a year.

In the last 8 years or so, I play much less and for lower stakes, but I'm up ~$6k over that timeframe because now I play when I'm feeling right, and I don't play at stakes that jeopardizes my bankroll if I have a bad session or two, so I don't feel the need to chase to get even. That money stays separate from my employment earnings. If I want to buy a toy, it comes out of that pot.

For sports bets, I usually keep it to $10-$20 a week and on average I lose ~$100 a year which is acceptable to me for the enjoyment it provides and the potential for a big swing the other way. I pretty much exclusively play full game and half game parlays with some DFS thrown in.

Hopefully that's useful.

[AuntieEm]

20 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

@Virgil

 

draftkings also runs great promos 

 

I put in 20 bucks and they gave me 200 in free bets …

 

instantly turned that to 900 lol

 

    Is draftking app even usable in ny?  I looked at it awhile ago it said had to be in PA.  

[Buffalo716]

22 minutes ago, AuntieEm said:

 

    Is draftking app even usable in ny?  I looked at it awhile ago it said had to be in PA.  

It’s legal now in ny… You just can’t bet college teams based in New York

[BullBuchanan]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

It’s legal now in ny… You just can’t bet college teams based in New York

That's a really stupid caveat

[Bills2022]

6 hours ago, Just Jack said:

I used to be addicted.  I say used to because I know what my triggers are and to step back when I feel them coming on.  I'll still play the lottery, the 50/50 they do at the stadium, etc.  Another thing that helped me was a former job I had, repairing slot machines at a local casino.  Knowing how they work, and seeing some of the people in there, day after day chasing that thrill of winning $15 after spending $100, makes you more wary of spending money.  

 

So set a limit of how much money you can lose and not feel bad about it.  If you win more than you put in, take that extra and withdrawal it.  Don't add more money in to try and win back what you lost. 

 

The lottery is the greatest gamble ever.  You only need to buy a ticket and you get more enjoyment of figuring out how to spend the money than any enjoyment you could ever get for $2.   Sports gambling is very stressful.  I used to bet multiple games. At end of season. Lost. Then I said 1 college game and 1 pro game per week. End of season. Lost.  I have been able to make a little money by betting 1 game a week and just the over/under.  I actually made a little money last year, but the stress of betting totals is brutal. It isn't worth it. 

 

For the original poster.  Stick to totals. You have a shot, but you might take years off your life. 😅

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Bills2022

[Virgil]

FanDuel doesn’t support Maryland

[Just Jack]

3 hours ago, Bills2022 said:

 

The lottery is the greatest gamble ever.  You only need to buy a ticket and you get more enjoyment of figuring out how to spend the money than any enjoyment you could ever get for $2.   

 

 

That's what I do, I have plans depending on how much I win.  Plus, I just stick with the subscriptions with Powerball, Mega Millions, NY Lotto, and Cash4Life, so I'm not running to a store every few days to buy a ticket or changing numbers. I may drop Cash4Life, since that's $2/day now, but it's typically the only one I win a few bucks fairly regularly with. But I'm not sure if I should just keep the money I would spend on it or put it towards one of the other games I play. If I put it to something else, it would probably be NY Lotto.  Over the years since I started, I know I'm way in the hole, but I don't care.  It's a dollar and a dream, multiplied many, many, many times. 

[GottaRun]

I'm preferring the prop bets so far and right now my account is much healthier leaning on prop bets vs picking which team wins or loses. 

The Bills at 1.09 to win doesn't tempt me to bet this weekend as I'd need to put up too much of my bankroll to make any decent profit and I don't want the risk.

However I got Diggs 100+ yards + Bills win at 3.5-1 and I got Gabe Davis 100+ yards + Josh 300 yards at 12 - 1.  Diggs already has 2 100+ yard games this year and this seems like a decent bet.  One of Diggs/Davis could have a big game this weekend (bets at PokerStars sports book - us Canucks can bet there)... any of your US sites offering better odds on those 2 bets?

Edited October 8, 2022 by GottaRun

[TheMightyMaxio]

I debated posting a reply to this for two reasons: 1) I’m mostly a lurker 2) usually by the time I’m reading the thread, it’s hours / days old and someone has already made the same point.

But Virgil is a respected contributor that I’ve read countless times and I figured I’d have some insight that he or someone else could use.

I will point form my advice (sorry if it sounds like I’m speaking to a child but clarity is important).

Also, I will limit my advice towards Maryland and Prop betting:

1)     Maryland has legalized sports gambling and most books will be available by the end of the year, meaning there will be a lot of deals to attract users. Take advantage of this and open accounts at multiple venues. Deposits the minimum amount to hit whatever offer sounds best to you. The reason is twofold: 1) to find the book you like best, 2) maximize the return for your deposit. Not all books are created equal, some are downright garbage and can be frustrating.

2)     Things to considered from a book (this will be based on your preferences as a gambler): In play bets, clear refund & void bet rules, ease of deposit / withdrawal options like wait times and account holds, options for props bets, and same game parlays and so on. It will be up to you to know what it is you want out of this experience.

3)     If you are concentrating on player prop bets, it is imperative that you be a stat head. You must follow injury reports, usage rates, game plan trends. A lot of analytical nerds love player prop bets because predicative analysis can give a slight edge. That being said “***** happens in football”.

4)     If you aren’t a stat head or don’t have the time to track data, then follow a twitter account and/ or podcast that you- at minimum don’t hate. There are plenty of talking head experts popping up everywhere. Find someone you like listening to- that isn’t overly annoying or outrageous.

5)     Don’t trust anyone that says they hit over 75%.

6)     Don’t pay for insider knowledge.

7)     Understand what kind of gambler you are, if you like nickel and diming to add interest to a game than use a book that has a betting limit option and turn it on. Nothing worse than getting hosed on an unlucky play and then dropping half your stack on an emotional tilt where you chase returns with more garbage. Don’t waste money on Parlays (but play the odd one here and there). Parlays, builders and stacks are designed to separate you from your money. You will lose way more often than you will hit and going 4 of 5 or 8 of 10 or 3 of 4 doesn’t mean you were close it means you lost.

8)Most of your props bets should be binary bets: over/ under yds, td or not, int or not. If you start adding 1st qrt Td or 3+td passes, or whatever, your odds of losing go up.

9)  Finally, there are plenty of get rich quick bets and bad beat almost hit stories. Most bettors that have success are disciplined with the units they invest and know that a good sports gambler will on %60 (approx.) bets… a great one will hit on %70, over that is usually bull#### posturing or flat out lying. It is a slow, disciplined climb to profit because most good bets rarely exceed double your money. Which means there is always risk.
 

If this helps great. If not carry on and good luck.

[Pre1236]

For what it's worth I bet the over on Devin Singletary rushing for 47.5 yards this week. Seems like a nice number given the spread and thinking the Bills should roll. 

 

My experience with gambling - I started earlier this year. I'll win a few bets, think I have it all figured out then promptly get wiped out.  It's crazy how sports books know how to pick the right number!  I'm pretty much convinced no one knows what they are doing and I view it as entertainment.

[ehfeuh57]

On 10/6/2022 at 11:10 AM, 17islongenough said:

you would win +200. I put 15 in and won 45

 

you won 30 and this is the standard way to say it.

 

you can say you received a total payout of 45 if you really want

[stevewin]

My Dad has gotten a kick recently the last few years going downtown to the Casino to place small time bets on the Bills.  Recently hasn't been able to drive so whenever me or my siblings are here he always wants us to drive him to the Casino to place his bets.  Last time I was here I installed a betting app on his phone, but didn't get a chance to fully set it up (and the odds (pun intended) of him actually figuring out how to use it himself are not good).

 

My brother and I came into town this weekend take him to the Steelers game with our sons.  I remembered from this thread the same game parlay w/ Draft Kings, and had my son install and set up an account for my Dad on his phone in the car on the way to the game.  Before the game we had a lot of fun with him setting up a bunch of small same game parlays.  During the game we had a blast following the bets - my Dad was like a little kid.  We had one 10 leg parlay that only needed Singletary to score to win - with the ball at the one and Singeltary in the backfield we knew that was the last chance since he wouldn't play after that series - then the shovel pass.  Would have paid out a few hundred if they just got under center and punched it in with Singletary (my father was cursing Dorsey for that lol) - but was worth the fun roooting for it til the end.  Overall we came out ahead like 30 bucks.

 

One irony is that we had tickets in the new Caesar's Sportsbook Lounge suite.  I guess that they have to wait for legislaton to pass before actual on-site betting is allowed there - but they have the layout and signage all ready.  Was a cool but for sure different way to watch the game.

[Just Jack]

1 hour ago, stevewin said:

One irony is that we had tickets in the new Caesar's Sportsbook Lounge suite.  I guess that they have to wait for legislation to pass before actual on-site betting is allowed there - but they have the layout and signage all ready.  Was a cool but for sure different way to watch the game.

 

How did you get those?  Purchase them, play so much you get them free?  

[stevewin]

2 hours ago, Just Jack said:

 

How did you get those?  Purchase them, play so much you get them free?  

My brother has a friend with season tix who gets us single game tickets every year.  This year - he talked to his rep who said there was a suite that was undergoing renovation at the time and I guess they hadn't gone on general sale yet, but he gave access to 5 seats for us.

 

I actually was wondering  myself how someone would normally get these.  I didn't even realize these big suites existed til now.