Coin Toss Strategy

[Dick_Cheney]

Personally, I love it.

 

I just don't love it in weather like today, coming off a game where we were still extremely not entirely physically recovered.

 

People really don't understand what legitimate heat exhaustion does to the body. Hopefully next week is a different story.

[The Frankish Reich]

4 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

From the time you could choose to defer to 2018, the win rate if you win the toss and defer was 51.8%.  And that is with the Patriots choosing that strategy 95% of the time during the Brady era likely skewing the win rate.  What that means is choosing to defer or receive the ball only matters on message boards.  Other than providing a subject to argue about, it is a meaningless decision.  

Well, 51.8% sounds significant over the course of all the NFL games played since 2018.  I'm not seeing any compelling argument for why it would vary significantly from 50/50. (I do get that the number may be slightly influenced by one really good team always choosing to defer)

The key number isn't "win the toss, choose to defer" win percentage. It's "win percentage for teams that receive the opening kickoff" regardless of how they got there (winning and electing to receive, or losing and having the opponent defer). Any idea of what that stat is?

[CircleTheWagons99]

I thought we havent won a coin toss all year, but deferring today due to weather was the correct call. 

[Captain Caveman]

5 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

I thought we havent won a coin toss all year, but deferring today due to weather was the correct call. 

We didn’t defer today, right? We took the ball…

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well, 51.8% sounds significant over the course of all the NFL games played since 2018.  I'm not seeing any compelling argument for why it would vary significantly from 50/50. (I do get that the number may be slightly influenced by one really good team always choosing to defer)

The key number isn't "win the toss, choose to defer" win percentage. It's "win percentage for teams that receive the opening kickoff" regardless of how they got there (winning and electing to receive, or losing and having the opponent defer). Any idea of what that stat is?

I don't but the vitriol is about deferring.

I don't disagree with many. I would defer in the hopes I could get two back to back possessions and also prevent the opponent from getting back to back possessions.  

But in the end, just like today it just doesn't matter. There are far too many variables during a game for the coin toss/defer decision to impact the outcome.

[sirebors]

I thought we won today...? 

[TheCockSportif]

Given the weather situation today, I take the ball in the first half.  Thinking was that it would be wise to get points early.  It didn't work out, but the team won.  Otherwise, outside of this weather situation, I would've deferred.

[Big Blitz]

4 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

There is no “always”

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

They scored on 8 straight opening drives and the weather was probably the best it was going to be all game...why not?

2 kneel downs and then kick a FG

 

 

Why is it considered likely that wet weather is going to inhibit scoring?     That obviously didn't turn out to be the case.   The offense has the advantage when the field is slick.    It was the wrong decision.......they won anyway.

[CircleTheWagons99]

33 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:

We didn’t defer today, right? We took the ball…

Yeah, thats what i meant. 

[Big Turk]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Why is it considered likely that wet weather is going to inhibit scoring?     That obviously didn't turn out to be the case.   The offense has the advantage when the field is slick.    It was the wrong decision.......they won anyway.

 

Because nobody knew exactly how bad it was going to be later