Why exactly are we favored by 3.5 in Baltimore?

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

We just put up 490+ yards on offense, and held Miami/Tua to their lowest output of the season.

 

We blew at least 10-14 points yesterday.  There were 6 plays:

1. End of half, botched snap/spike.  Cost us 3 points

 

2. Bass usually money, shanks a run of thr mill FG.  3 points missed

 

3. Davis drops a TD. 4 point swing

 

4. Milano drops a pick 6.

 

5. Josh misses Lil Dirty on a out route, that he makes in his sleep.  Cost us 7.

 

6.  End of game, a bit of poor clock mgt and lack of urgency.

 

Now we don't expect to have everything bounce our way, but alot to go against us.  Heat/decimated by injury, lack of execution all led to these.  But if 1-2 go our way, then this is a completely different topic.  And most games, we aren't looking back at this many missed chances.

 

Time to rebound, will be another tough game, but we have plenty of "learning opportunities" to reflect on.

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

 

They will when they see our injury report.  -3.5 will eventually be -2.

Vegas won’t care about the injury report unless the following are out:

Allen

Diggs

Miller

 

nothing else will move the line. 

[Mr. WEO]

pretty sure Vegas is aware of the injury report with that line...

[Adamb412]

2 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

At what? 

Home field, lack of injuries like our team

[LEBills]

8 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

But Baltimore is playing well too and they are home

They just lost to Miami by more points than we did while they were at home

 

Baltimore actually probably has more injuries than we do

 

The Bills are amazing at some of these advanced statistics that the sharp bettors rely on like yards per play. We are a better team who lost a close game that people are overreacting to way to much. Line probably should be much higher so I would take the Bills and eat the points.

Edited September 27, 2022 by LEBills

[Boatdrinks]

12 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

I don't get it....

 

We just lost to Miami, we have a ton of injuries, we are both 2 and 1, the game is in Baltimore. Baltimore going to have revenge on their minds since the last time we saw them was the division game during covid.... What am I missing?

The Bills are better than the Ravens. 

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, Adamb412 said:

Home field, lack of injuries like our team

Maybe you should bet it then?

[Adamb412]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills are better than the Ravens. 

A healthy bills team I agree. But not this injury riddled team

[frostbitmic]

We're favored because our OC is unhinged.

[Adamb412]

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

They just lost to Miami by more points than we did while they were at home

 

Baltimore actually probably has more injuries than we do

 

The Bills are amazing at some of these advanced statistics that the sharp bettors rely on like yards per play. We are a better team who lost a close game that people are overreacting to way to much. Line probably should be much higher so I would take the Bills and points.

The bills are laying the points. You wouldn't be taking points

[LEBills]

Just now, Adamb412 said:

The bills are laying the points. You wouldn't be taking points

Just a typo if that’s all you looking at

[zow2]

Ravens forced 4 turnovers yesterday. That worried me a bit.  Bills need to be on the + side of that ledger this week. 

[Bob in STL]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Vegas won’t care about the injury report unless the following are out:

Allen

Diggs

Miller

 

nothing else will move the line. 

Maybe that is true but it is a mistake. 

 

I expect the spread to shrink once they digest the injury report.  Next week we play with 3 out of 5 backups in the secondary (assuming Poyer is back), plus  injuries in both the OL (Morse might be back but Bates is out) and DL, plus Knox and Davis not really contributing in Miami.   It will start to show.  

 

Someone has to help Josh Allen.  

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

A healthy bills team I agree. But not this injury riddled team

The stats don’t bear that out. They doubled Miami up in top and outgained them by hundreds of yards. In short , they had a flukey game where they just didn’t finish drives. They were #1 in redzone going into yesterdays game. Their injuries by and large are on Defense and they still held Miami in check. The Bills even with injuries ( not to their top 4 players ) are still better than most teams and the Ravens D is beat up. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Boatdrinks

[Adamb412]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

The stats don’t bear that out. They doubled Miami up in top and outgained them by hundreds of yards. In short , that had a flukey game where they just didn’t finish drives. They were #1 in redzone going into yesterdays game. Their injuries by and large are on Defense and they still held Miami in check. The Bills even with injuries ( not to their top 4 players ) are still better than most teams and the Ravens D is beat up. 

Maybe that's what I'm missing. What injuries do the ravens have?

[LABILLBACKER]

8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Vegas won’t care about the injury report unless the following are out:

Allen

Diggs

Miller

 

nothing else will move the line. 

Betters always move the line. When they see the volume of players out.  I just don't see it holding at -3.5.

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Adamb412 said:

Maybe that's what I'm missing. What injuries do the ravens have?

I know they have many injuries on defense but don’t know the names and particulars , sorry. I’m sure someone on the board will chime in with info. 

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Vegas won’t care about the injury report unless the following are out:

Allen

Diggs

Miller

 

nothing else will move the line. 

Groot has also got what 3 and 1/2 sacks in 3 games so far.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

3 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

Maybe that's what I'm missing. What injuries do the ravens have?

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/injury-report/

 

Pretty long list too. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Ya Digg?]

8 minutes ago, Adamb412 said:

Home field, lack of injuries like our team

Baltimore has injuries too, their secondary is atrocious, it’s going to be very difficult for them to hang with the Bills