Would Bills Have Been Better Off with a Punt Instead of a Safety at End of Game?

[The Jokeman]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

I think so...Bills would have needed a TD starting from around midfield or maybe even in Dolphin territory because their punter would have had to rush to get a punt off due to being backed up against their own endzone and not having the normal distance.

 

Crowder had some good returns and could have even given them getter position.

 

IMO, starting at midfield needing 7 is better than starting at your own 25 when the punter has no pressure and can boom the ball needing 3.  Allen would have had multiple shots from the endzone once they got around the 25.

I would have preferred giving McKenzie over Crowder a chance to field the last free kick all things considered. 

[StHustle]

The punt falling into the end zone instead of going out the back of the end zone would have been the best case scenario 

[MasterStrategist]

This worked to our advantage, like many said, a go ahead FG is more likely than a TD (with no timeouts).

 

I'll have to rewatch, but I thought Crowder should have let that "free kick" bounce.  He was going backwards to field it, any chance at a return was gone after losing momentum that direction.  There's a chance it goes out of bounds, better chance it goes into the end zone for a touch back.

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I would have preferred giving McKenzie over Crowder a chance to field the last free kick all things considered. 

 

Did you not see McKenzie cramping a bunch in the 4th Quarter?

[ExiledInIllinois]

Why are coaches loose and fast with TOs in second half.  The only reason KC pulled off "13 Secs" is because they had their TOs...

 

...Why isn't it doctrine to go into final 4 minutes with ALL your TOs?  Just take the 5 yard delay penalty.  5 yards is pudding with Josh.   Unless it's the one time on the goal line trying to beat the Felons.   /smdh

[The Jokeman]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Did you not see McKenzie cramping a bunch in the 4th Quarter?

Fair enough. 

Just now, ExiledInIllinois said:

Why are coaches loose and fast with TOs in second half.  The only reason KC pulled off "13 Secs" is because they had their TOs...

 

...Why isn't it doctrine to go into final 4 minutes with ALL your TOs?  Just take the 5 yard delay penalty.  5 yards is pudding with Josh.   Unless it's the one time on the goal line trying to beat the Felons.   /smdh

We had to use our last 2 TOs to give us a good chunk of time for that final drive. I have no issue with clock management at the end of the game. Yet Josh's decision at the end of the 1st half to me was more of an issue.

[ExiledInIllinois]

51 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Fair enough. 

We had to use our last 2 TOs to give us a good chunk of time for that final drive. I have no issue with clock management at the end of the game. Yet Josh's decision at the end of the 1st half to me was more of an issue.

And we still needed the first.   Wasted earlier.  Miami's use of TOs even worse.

[Billz4ever]

5 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

Needing a touchdown to win is a much tougher proposition than simply needing to get into field goal range. They had a minute and a half.  Very doable.

[Billz4ever]

5 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Why not? We change rules all the time when the existing rule promotes gamesmanship that allows one side (offense or defense) a better chance to win by avoiding actual competitive plays on the field. This is why the NFL is still the king of American sports. 
Nobody’s blaming the loss on the rules. In fact, Miami obviously (and correctly) rejected the strategy of “take the safety.” I’m just saying that there are some games in which that is sound strategy. And boring strategy for the fans who want a real competitive ending to a close game. You can equate this to a rule change that disincentivizes endless end of game fouling in the NBA - that too is sometimes an effective strategy that kills the chance for an exciting finish. 

No, because the free kick (punt) can just as easily be shanked and go 20 yards or the punter can out kick the coverage and the receiving team can ripoff a nice return.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Billz4ever

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 9/26/2022 at 3:18 PM, RoyBatty is alive said:

Yes meant on the 3rd down, definitely should have run it on 3rd.  The actual time to  punt on 4th down was maybe what 7 seconds.  

 

Yeah I was shocked when they passed.  Thinking wow, we have a real shot now, punting from their own end zone.  Likely Bills would get the ball around 50 yard line with about 1:40 left, we're in good shape.  Then the safety happened which made a FG would win it, but lengthened the field a fair amount.

 

I'm guessing Miami called what they felt was a real safe pass play.  Bills would be figuring run play so good likelihood it woks, at a minimum gain a few yards, maybe break it open enough for 1st down and run out the clock.  But one of the Bills deflected the pass.

[LeGOATski]

No. Needing a TD to win is much harder than needing a FG.

[BarleyNY]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:45 PM, st pete gogolak said:

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

A lot has to do with the punter crushing the ball on the free kick. That made the safety worse for us. There was no way he would’ve gotten a good punt off squished into his EZ so we’d have been in excellent field position. Still, we’d have needed a TD but on something like a 35 or 40 yard drive. (Maybe less.) As it stood we needed to get about the same yardage AND make a FG.

 

Miami should’ve probably just taken the safety on purpose. Too much could’ve gone wrong on the punt, including a Bills TD. They got lucky it worked out for them.

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

No. Needing a TD to win is much harder than needing a FG.

I think it’s debatable given the monster punt he got off.  
 

Starting around the 25 for a FG or starting around midfield (probably closer) for a TD. 
 

Each scenario allowed 1 or 2 middle of the field plays, but then sideline work needed for the FG.  
 

With our OL in shambles, we couldn’t really orchestrate a quick out to the sideline.  Hence McKenzie clock running out play. 
 

In retrospect, Allen being able to leave the trashed pocket and take shots into the end zone, instead of needing to throw sideline outs may have given us a better chance.  
 

That said, we did get to a 60 yard FG with time to run a quick out to get closer and then Quessenberry killed us with a hold. 
 

Edited September 28, 2022 by SCBills

[In Summary]

On 9/26/2022 at 1:45 PM, st pete gogolak said:

If the Miami punter (who had an absolutely outstanding game by the way) had gotten the punt off from his end zone, I'm guessing that the Bills would have had the ball around the Miami 40 - 45 yard line with a little over a minute left, no timeouts and still needing a touchdown.  Would that have been better or worse than the safety?  I think it's probably a coin flip.  If a safety was the smarter play, Miami should have taken a safety on purpose.  Anyone have the analytics?

...and miss out on seeing a butt-punt live on TV? No way!

[Airseven]

No. You have to roll dice with the FG scenario every time. It leaves more room for error and flexibility with play-calling and clock management. 

 

Bottom line - I'd rather attempt a 60-yard boot than a hail mary.

[LeGOATski]

56 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think it’s debatable given the monster punt he got off.  
 

Starting around the 25 for a FG or starting around midfield (probably closer) for a TD. 

 

I think you're making this too complicated. You said it right here ^^^

 

They have to go basically the same distance, but in one scenario all you need is a field goal. In the other scenario, you need to punch it in for a TD.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 9/26/2022 at 2:01 PM, Big Turk said:

 

And Milano had a pick 6 thrown right to him too...I mean defensive players play defense for a reason usually...

I wish he dropped that int vs Tenn as well we lost JP on that play . 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

In a different universe the punt was made and Allen throws a game winning TD with 2 seconds left. Miami runs the kickoff back for a TD. So no.