We don't have the mentality to win close games

[Billsfan1972]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. 8 points is a one score game. And you have to go the same time period as the Bills so it is 2017-2022. You have to make sure that you are being consistent with your application of the statistics.

 

28-21 shows the Chiefs are better than the Bills in close games. Equally the other comparitors you did above all have to be 2017-2022 and have to be 8 points or fewer. 

 

I make the Packers 30-16-1 in the same period regular and post season and they had one major outlier bad year in that period they were just exceptionally good in other years). I get TEN to the same as you 30-17. 

 

See I am now willing to listen to it isn't just an outlier year issue and that while the Bills are not horrible in close games as 2021 might have indicated they do, still, win fewer close games than similar teams. See you did eventually sort of prove your point once you started using the data properly. The Bills are 20-21 though not 18-20. 

 

What is interesting is that among those teams the Bills have played the fewest 1 score games:

 

Kansas City 49

Green Bay & Tennessee 47

Buffalo 41

 

But I am persuaded that it is an area where we need to improve and I think our record being poorer does reflect on coaching.

 

 

 

Look we're all Bills fans and want them to win.  While I too agree 2021 was just horrible in terms of luck, be it weather vs. NE and a Slip on a wet night in Tennessee, there too were some bad calls.....  Diggs was held on 3rd down in TB as an example.  Hail Murray just was (but the Bills left points out there too).

 

I was not arguing about the thread, just commenting how personally some people take it (and criticism of the Bills and often coaching).

 

And why have the Bills played the fewest?  When they were bad year 1-2 with McD and questionable QB'ing, they were really bad, and now with Allen, when good, they are really good.

 

Appreciate the olive branch, and hope I can extend one too. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Actually I just checked the New England Patriots (Brady 2014-19), Kansas City Chiefs (above), Tennessee Titans,  New Orleans Saints (last 5 Brees years),and Green Bay Packers.  I looked at 5 years.

 

NE 23-13 (Brady years 2015-19) .639

GB 24-15 .615

NO 19-15 .559

Tenn 30-17 .638

KC 26-12 .684

Buff 18-20  .474

 

You're ascribing a trend to a statistic that doesn't have one. One score games are 50% games, period, over a large enough sample size. If you take any massive sample size of an event with 50/50 odds and you split that sample size into random chunks, the individual chunks are not likely to all come out 50/50. One chunk might even come out 90/10 just because of random chance. But there is not inherently something meaningful about any one of those individual chunks, it is just how statistical dispersion works.

 

As an example Josh Allen was 9-0 in his opening coin tosses last year. If you were told that something with 50/50 odds happened 9 times to zero you might assume some human element was involved. But there wasn't one. It's just a coin flip.

 

Also, one score games are not inherently meaningful results. If the Chiefs lead by 14 points in 3 games and give up a garbage time TD in each, they are 3-0 in close games over that period. I don't know if that's what happened in a large number of their one score game wins, but we can agree those games shouldn't count, yes? And the issue is you haven't separated the games that should count from the games that shouldn't. Similarly there were several close games where the Bills scored a late TD to pull ahead by two scores and as a result they don't get credit for a one score win because they played too well to get that result. So the records you posted simultaneously have too much data and not enough data.

 

Even if you managed to separate all of the meaningful data out and post the resulting records, we still come back to the coin flip problem. It's human nature to find trends. But a lot of data is just random.

 

You want to know the best way to avoid losing a close game? Don't end up in one. Close games become coin flips. One drop, one blown coverage, one missed FG decides the game. When the Bills lose one score games it isn't typically because of one bad coaching moment in crunch time, it's because of a series of bad coaching decisions or bad player execution that led to the game becoming a coin flip game, or sometimes it's because we simply played an equal game with an equal opponent and came down on the wrong side at the end. And all of that is true in close games that we won except we came down on the right side.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by HappyDays

[Billy Claude]

10 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

26-14 since Mahomes was a starter.....  Now you went to 8  points (that's two scores, td and 2-pt conversion).....  Regardless a very good winning record.  

 

I'm taking out the Bills 5-1 season too, just because.....  Makes them 13-19, which is really bad......

 

 

Mahomes only started one game in 2017 so the record is 24-13 not 26-14. This is just for the sake of accuracy since the record is still obviously is still very good and does not hurt your argument.

 

Yes, I already noted in my original post that if you take out the 2020 season, the Bills would get much worse.   I just thought that it was interesting that most of the KC amazing record came from one season.

 

As I said in my follow up post to your response, I am sympathetic to your argument.  The other data you present certainly indicates the Bills are not as good as they should be in these situations.   

 

I feel that the Bills bad record in close games is due to a large extend on their inability to convert on short yardage (worse in the NFL).  In both the Steelers and Jags game, if they had been able to convert on one of multiple short yardage situations they would probably have won the game. I don't think this is a random thing and was a direct result of trying to go cheap on the Oline.

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Billy Claude

[Billsfan1972]

Teams that are good, with very good/great QBs generally win those games because they are capable of leading those "winning" drives late in the game and the team is too very good.

 

Again the whole idea about "Not having the mentality to win" I did not ascribe to.  All I did was say was don't take this so personally and that yes the Bills haven't done well.  

26 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

Mahomes only started one game in 2017 so the record is 24-13 not 26-14. This is just for the sake of accuracy since the record is still obviously is still very good and does not hurt your argument.

 

Yes, I already noted in my original post that if you take out the 2020 season, the Bills would get much worse.   I just thought that it was interesting to note that most of the KC amazing record came from one season.

 

As I noted in my follow up post to your response, I am sympathetic to your argument.  The other data you present supports certainly indicates the Bills are not as good as they should be in these situations.   I feel that there were three games they lost lost year (Steelers, Titans, and Jags) because they were very bad (worse in the NFL based on what they said on the Rams broadcast) in short yardage situations.  I don't think this is a random thing and was a direct result of trying to go cheap on the oline.

 

And yes short yardage running was an issue, along with some bad luck and yes I'll say it over and over, some questionable coaching.  Just seems like a # of things.

 

Finally vs. Baltimore on Sunday they did everything correct and won.

[Billsfan1972]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're ascribing a trend to a statistic that doesn't have one. One score games are 50% games, period, over a large enough sample size. If you take any massive sample size of an event with 50/50 odds and you split that sample size into random chunks, the individual chunks are not likely to all come out 50/50. One chunk might even come out 90/10 just because of random chance. But there is not inherently something meaningful about any one of those individual chunks, it is just how statistical dispersion works.

 

As an example Josh Allen was 9-0 in his opening coin tosses last year. If you were told that something with 50/50 odds happened 9 times to zero you might assume some human element was involved. But there wasn't one. It's just a coin flip.

 

Also, one score games are not inherently meaningful results. If the Chiefs lead by 14 points in 3 games and give up a garbage time TD in each, they are 3-0 in close games over that period. I don't know if that's what happened in a large number of their one score game wins, but we can agree those games shouldn't count, yes? And the issue is you haven't separated the games that should count from the games that shouldn't. Similarly there were several close games where the Bills scored a late TD to pull ahead by two scores and as a result they don't get credit for a one score win because they played too well to get that result. So the records you posted simultaneously have too much data and not enough data.

 

Even if you managed to separate all of the meaningful data out and post the resulting records, we still come back to the coin flip problem. It's human nature to find trends. But a lot of data is just random.

 

You want to know the best way to avoid losing a close game? Don't end up in one. Close games become coin flips. One drop, one blown coverage, one missed FG decides the game. When the Bills lose one score games it isn't typically because of one bad coaching moment in crunch time, it's because of a series of bad coaching decisions or bad player execution that led to the game becoming a coin flip game, or sometimes it's because we simply played an equal game with an equal opponent and came down on the wrong side at the end. And all of that is true in close games that we won except we came down on the right side.

 

Yes one score games are 50/50 as one team wins and a team loses.  The Bills are a winning team with a great QB, so yes I used good teams and great QBs.  

 

So I will only compare the Bills under those criteria.  This is a SB contender.  

 

If you want to compare them to the Commanders, Texans, Jax, Jets, Giants......  Go ahead.

 

 

[T master]

On 9/25/2022 at 3:15 PM, UKBillFan said:

Complete chokers across the board, with no clue how to play when under pressure. Offense was putrid and the play calling little better. Favourites for the Superbowl? Only if the defense is fully fit because the Offense, even with the so called predicted MVP, is not good enough.

 

ETA 15 minutes later - Won't delete the original post because I have to own it. But now I've calmed down slightly... still annoying. And I think I'll still have doubts about us being able to able to cope with the pressure of a one score game at the death until we win one of them.

 

Did you watch the Ravens game ? We can build from there . Champions aren't born they are forged in experience & knowledge .

[HOUSE]

See, The Bills win another close one

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

See, The Bills win another close one

I have one thing to say to Stillers fans.

 

And we’ll never see you again.

[strive_for_five_guy]

What a game today.  Love that this team is now winning the close games too!

[TheBrownBear]

This thread continues to age well

[Warcodered]

2-0 on our last two.

[Gugny]

Bills are now 6-3 in one-score games this season.

[Big Turk]

On 9/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, UKBillFan said:

Complete chokers across the board, with no clue how to play when under pressure. Offense was putrid and the play calling little better. Favourites for the Superbowl? Only if the defense is fully fit because the Offense, even with the so called predicted MVP, is not good enough.

 

ETA 15 minutes later - Won't delete the original post because I have to own it. But now I've calmed down slightly... still annoying. And I think I'll still have doubts about us being able to able to cope with the pressure of a one score game at the death until we win one of them.

 

Oh....how about now?

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[ExiledInIllinois]

Allen didn't have a 4th quarter game winning drive/comeback in 2021.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=AlleJo02

 

Past Saturday's game appears not to be added yet. 

 

I figure he has 4 this year. 

[T master]

On 9/25/2022 at 3:15 PM, UKBillFan said:

Complete chokers across the board, with no clue how to play when under pressure. Offense was putrid and the play calling little better. Favourites for the Superbowl? Only if the defense is fully fit because the Offense, even with the so called predicted MVP, is not good enough.

 

ETA 15 minutes later - Won't delete the original post because I have to own it. But now I've calmed down slightly... still annoying. And I think I'll still have doubts about us being able to able to cope with the pressure of a one score game at the death until we win one of them.

 

11 AND 3 !!!! NUMBER 1 seed in the AFC !!! Boy this team sucks !! 🙄 

[NewEra]

COMPLETE CHOKERS ACROSS THE BOARD.  
 

epic

[Greg S]

11-3 and a five-game winning streak. Most of these wins have been close games. 

[Gugny]

On 9/25/2022 at 3:15 PM, UKBillFan said:

Complete chokers across the board, with no clue how to play when under pressure. Offense was putrid and the play calling little better. Favourites for the Superbowl? Only if the defense is fully fit because the Offense, even with the so called predicted MVP, is not good enough.

 

ETA 15 minutes later - Won't delete the original post because I have to own it. But now I've calmed down slightly... still annoying. And I think I'll still have doubts about us being able to able to cope with the pressure of a one score game at the death until we win one of them.

 

ETA 3 months later - Number two defense; number four offense; still Super Bowl favorites.  And we've won six close games.

[teef]

is this one of those thread where certain posters like to claim that the op is being attacked for being negative, and not just posting *****?

[gordong]

this aged well