We don't have the mentality to win close games

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Your #'s are slightly off (surprise in your favour)

 

Including playoffs 

2017 5-3

2018 3-3

2019 4-6

2020 5-1

2021 0-6

2022 1-1 (thread started prior to the win)

Again overall 18-20 <.500 and Bills Record overall 55-37

 

Nope. Your numbers are off. The only one you actually disagree on is 2017 by the looks of it. There were 6 one score wins:

 

Miami x2

Colts

Chiefs

Buccs

Falcons

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. Your numbers are off. The only one you actually disagree on is 2017 by the looks of it. There were 6 one score wins:

 

Miami x2

Colts

Chiefs

Buccs

Falcons

 

I already said that I made a mistake.

 

Now I'm sure KC's record in close games is an outlier too according to you & Teef?????😉😝

[teef]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I already said that I made a mistake.

 

Now I'm sure KC's record in close games is an outlier too according to you & Teef?????😉😝

what does it matter?  it wasn't what was being discussed.  again, you're trying too hard.

[Billsfan1972]

30 minutes ago, teef said:

what do other wining team's results have to do with anything.  you add information that doesn't really mean anything.  

 

listen...you have an idea/opinion in your head based on how you're looking at the information.  multiple good posters, (not saying me) have explained why your methods just aren't accurate.  your choice is to learn from it or not.  this is just a situation where someone can't admit they're wrong.  on top of that, you're skewing data just to fit your argument.  no one is seeing red.  you just can't let it go.  i have no idea why.  

look at this @Billsfan1972.  this is all you need to know.  it shouldn't have gone any further than this, but apparently these results don't make you angry at mcd enough.  isn't that what's really going on here?

Again KC wins close games, Buffalo does not.  If KC had Buffalo's record in close game, they'd be on the road in the playoffs. 

 

Bills winning % is .592 under McD, but only  .474 in 1 score games (thanks to the 2 back door covers😝)

 

KC's is .684 in close games, which is in line with their overall record.

 

How much simpler can I make it.

 

 

[teef]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Again KC wins close games, Buffalo does not.  If KC had Buffalo's record in close game, they'd be on the road in the playoffs. 

 

Bills winning % is .592 under McD, but only  .474 in 1 score games (thanks to the 2 back door covers😝)

 

KC's is .684 in close games, which is in line with their overall record.

 

How much simpler can I make it.

 

 

and what does this have to do with anything?  no one ever disputed this, or even discussed this.  only you.  you don't need to make it simpler, because it has zero to do with what was being discussed.

[Billsfan1972]

40 minutes ago, teef said:

and what does this have to do with anything?  no one ever disputed this, or even discussed this.  only you.  you don't need to make it simpler, because it has zero to do with what was being discussed.

 You got to be kidding. The title of the thread is "we don't have the mentality to win close games". When compared to Kansas City I say the thread is correct (though i did no cment or give an opinion,  just stated stats and facts). Let me guess numbers don't matter to you as I have just shown Kansas City is winning those games and the Bills are not based on their record?

 

 Talk about obtuse

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I already said that I made a mistake.

 

Now I'm sure KC's record in close games is an outlier too according to you & Teef?????😉😝

 

To answer that you would have to lineup the top I dunno, 6-8 teams from the last 6 years in terms of overall W-L and then break them down by win % in one score games. 

 

Maybe then in that pattern if all the others are well over .500 and the Bills are one game below .500 the Bills would be a negative outlier? Or maybe the Chiefs would be a positive outlier? I don't know I haven't done the math to work it out. 

 

But the fact that 2021 was a statistical outlier in terms of the Bills in close games under McDermott is demonstrably proven. And that has been my point all along. Not "you are not being fair to the coaches" but "you are not using statistics properly."

 

I am totally open to the possibility that if you do what I suggested above the Bills may be lower than the rest and then you can draw some conclusions. 

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 You got to be kidding. The title of the thread is "we don't have the mentality to win close games". When compared to Kansas City I say the thread is correct (though i did no cment or give an opinion,  just stated stats and facts). Let me guess numbers don't matter to you as I have just shown Kansas City is winning those games and the Bills are not based on their record?

 

 Talk about obtuse

at what point did you and i ever discuss kc in this thread?  not once. the only thing you and i have ever talked about in this thread was whether to use just the 2021 season or all of his seasons when evaluating mcd.  the thread of the title is, "we don't have the mentality to win close games".  that just means we're talking about the bills.  no other teams were mentioned, until you decided to do so.  

 

you had the choice of answering a yes or no question.  you didn't because it didn't back up your argument.  then you started adding other factors, making up standards, skewing stats based on your own opinions, yet you have the nerve to call someone obtuse?

 

it's obvious you just don't have the ability to comprehend what's being discussed.  you may want to, but you can't.  and this isn't just me...this is with many other posters on this board.  you need to give up on this one my friend.  

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

To answer that you would have to lineup the top I dunno, 6-8 teams from the last 6 years in terms of overall W-L and then break them down by win % in one score games. 

 

Maybe then in that pattern if all the others are well over .500 and the Bills are one game below .500 the Bills would be a negative outlier? Or maybe the Chiefs would be a positive outlier? I don't know I haven't done the math to work it out. 

 

But the fact that 2021 was a statistical outlier in terms of the Bills in close games under McDermott is demonstrably proven. And that has been my point all along. Not "you are not being fair to the coaches" but "you are not using statistics properly."

 

I am totally open to the possibility that if you do what I suggested above the Bills may be lower than the rest and then you can draw some conclusions. 

at this point i truly don't think he understands.  

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In 2017 the Bills went 6-2 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2018 the Bills went 3-3 in one score games in the regular season

In 2019 the Bills went 4-5 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2020 the Bills went 5-1 in one score games in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs)

In 2021 the Bills went 0-6 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

So far in 2022 the Bills have gone 1-1 in one score games in the regular season

 

When you have a statistical data set and one of the data points varies significantly from the median that is an outlier. 

Yes, Yes, and Yes GB.  You have complete information and throughout the duration of the McBeane era.  In addition, are we to ding our team for destroying other playoff caliber teams in the regular season like what we did to the Titans and Rams.

 

So if we’re 0-6 in 2021 which is too small of a sample size, doesn’t that mean we killed in 11 games last year.  Lastly, one of those was almost hurricane like winds in Highmark for the Pats.

 

This just smells too much like using data to support a biased argument.

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yes, Yes, and Yes GB.  You have complete information and throughout the duration of the McBeane era.  In addition, are we to ding our team for destroying other playoff caliber teams in the regular season like what we did to the Titans and Rams.

 

So if we’re 0-6 in 2021 which is too small of a sample size, doesn’t that mean we killed in 11 games last year.  Lastly, one of those was almost hurricane like winds in Highmark for the Pats.

 

This just smells too much like using data to support a biased argument.

 

Bingo.

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Huh.....  Looked at the whole career and it is a losing record and the team has a great w/l record.

 

Here's the random example KC with Mahomes as their QB (as that is the team we're striving to beat), they are 26-12 in close games.....  A lot more then the Bills and a record that is in line with their overall record.

 

I'm tired, you want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

 

You should take a nap then, unless you want to do an exhaustive study of league wide trends of Super Bowl winning coaches career record in 1 score games. 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Motorin'

[PrimeTime101]

yep. 

 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Huh.....  Looked at the whole career and it is a losing record and the team has a great w/l record.

 

Here's the random example KC with Mahomes as their QB (as that is the team we're striving to beat), they are 26-12 in close games.....  A lot more then the Bills and a record that is in line with their overall record.

 

I'm tired, you want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

 

It amazes me how many times Teef has asked you a simple yes or no question, points out that you keep avoiding it to babble about something that wasn't asked, and you still keep doing it.

[jletha]

6 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

ou want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

I would be very interested to see this data and full statistical breakdown instead if youre willing. Then we can see if the Bills difference is statistically significant.

[ColoradoBills]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 You got to be kidding. The title of the thread is "we don't have the mentality to win close games". When compared to Kansas City I say the thread is correct (though i did no cment or give an opinion,  just stated stats and facts). Let me guess numbers don't matter to you as I have just shown Kansas City is winning those games and the Bills are not based on their record?

 

 Talk about obtuse

 

Here is a data driven article on close games.  You may or may not like what it says.  It's only 4 years old....so add to it if you want.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/nfl-s-close-game-analytics-how-lucky-wins-or-losse

Interesting quotes:

The truth of the matter is that studying how teams earn their wins and losses the one year can tell us a lot about what their next season is going to look like. Many will say “stats are for losers,” but teams which win a bunch of close games in one year tend to have drastic negative regression the next year.

.........

Teams which win close games get worse the next year. Teams which lose close games get better the next year. The NFL has basically incentivized this phenomenon with their salary cap, draft and schedule systems.

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, jletha said:

I would be very interested to see this data and full statistical breakdown instead if youre willing. Then we can see if the Bills difference is statistically significant.

Actually I just checked the New England Patriots (Brady 2014-19), Kansas City Chiefs (above), Tennessee Titans,  New Orleans Saints (last 5 Brees years),and Green Bay Packers.  I looked at 5 years.

 

NE 23-13 (Brady years 2015-19) .639

GB 24-15 .615

NO 19-15 .559

Tenn 30-17 .638

KC 26-12 .684

Buff 18-20  .474

 

Chose them as all have/had great quarterbacks like Allen and their winning records (Tannehill being the outlier, and GB and NO had losing seasons in the review).  Just went through all one score games and guess what? All teams won at at least a .559 to .684 winning percentage.  Includes playoffs.

 

But of course the fact that the Bills are under .500 shouldn't be a concern and of course means that it is an outlier and just bad luck, right?

 

By what I just said it seems good teams win close games.

 

So please explain how I am wrong in my assessment????

 

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Here is a data driven article on close games.  You may or may not like what it says.  It's only 4 years old....so add to it if you want.

 

http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/nfl-s-close-game-analytics-how-lucky-wins-or-losse

Interesting quotes:

The truth of the matter is that studying how teams earn their wins and losses the one year can tell us a lot about what their next season is going to look like. Many will say “stats are for losers,” but teams which win a bunch of close games in one year tend to have drastic negative regression the next year.

.........

Teams which win close games get worse the next year. Teams which lose close games get better the next year. The NFL has basically incentivized this phenomenon with their salary cap, draft and schedule systems.

All the above are winning teams and they had winning records every year or at worst were .500.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[Billy Claude]

10 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Huh.....  Looked at the whole career and it is a losing record and the team has a great w/l record.

 

Here's the random example KC with Mahomes as their QB (as that is the team we're striving to beat), they are 26-12 in close games.....  A lot more then the Bills and a record that is in line with their overall record.

 

I'm tired, you want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

 

 

KC being 26-12 in close games does not seem right so I went back and checked the numbers.

 

Counting any game decided by 8 or less as close, I find that KC is 26-18 in close games since the 2017 season.  If you include playoffs they would be 28-21.  So KC has been very good in close games but not as good as you claim.  Perhaps it was a typo? 

 

The regular season corresponds to 59% win rate in close games versus 73% overall. 

 

However, a bit closer dive into the data shows that almost all the difference occurred in 2020 when they went an extraordinary 8-1.   If you don't include that year they are 18-17 so basically 500 in close games.  Of course, if you don't include 2020, the Bills record in close games would also get much worse.

 

I think the conclusion is that teams that are win over a long period of time is because they win a lot of blow outs, not because they win an extraordinary number of close games.  Of course, on a single season basis, being lucky may be enough such as with the Bengals last year.

 

For people who are interested, this is the data KC by year, close game record + overall record

 

2017   3-5  (10-6)

2018   5-4 (12-4)

2019  5-4 (12-4)

2020  8-1 (12-4)

2021  4-3 (11-5)

2022  1-1 (3-1)

 

 

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Billy Claude

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, jletha said:

I would be very interested to see this data and full statistical breakdown instead if youre willing. Then we can see if the Bills difference is statistically significant.

 

6 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

KC being 26-12 in close games does not seem right so I went back and checked the numbers.

 

Counting any game decided by 8 or less as close, I find that KC is 26-18 in close games since the 2017 season.  If you include playoffs they would be 28-21.  So KC has been very good in close games but not as good as you claim.  Perhaps it was a typo? 

 

The regular season corresponds to 59% win rate in close games versus 73% overall. 

 

However, a bit closer dive into the data shows that almost all the difference occurred in 2020 when they went an extraordinary 8-1.   If you don't include that year they are 18-17 so basically 500 in close games.  Of course, if you don't include 2020, the Bills record in close games would also get much worse.

 

 

I think the conclusion is that teams that are win over a long period of time is because they win a lot of blow outs, not because they win an extraordinary number of close games.  Of course, on a single season basis, being lucky may be enough such as with the Bengals last year.

 

26-14 since Mahomes was a starter.....  Now you went to 8  points (that's two scores, td and 2-pt conversion).....  Regardless a very good winning record.  

 

I'm taking out the Bills 5-1 season too, just because.....  Makes them 13-19, which is really bad......

 

[Billy Claude]

I thought we were comparing coaches not QBs and Alex Smith was not a bad QB.

 

I am somewhat sympathetic to your argument since I feel the Bills short yardage issues contributed a large part to losing the close games last year.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

26-14 since Mahomes was a starter.....  Now you went to 8  points (that's two scores, td and 2-pt conversion).....  Regardless a very good winning record.  

 

I'm taking out the Bills 5-1 season too, just because.....  Makes them 13-19, which is really bad......

 

 

Nope. 8 points is a one score game. And you have to go the same time period as the Bills so it is 2017-2022. You have to make sure that you are being consistent with your application of the statistics.

 

28-21 shows the Chiefs are better than the Bills in close games. Equally the other comparitors you did above all have to be 2017-2022 and have to be 8 points or fewer. 

 

I make the Packers 30-16-1 in the same period regular and post season and they had one major outlier bad year in that period they were just exceptionally good in other years). I get TEN to the same as you 30-17. 

 

See I am now willing to listen to it isn't just an outlier year issue and that while the Bills are not horrible in close games as 2021 might have indicated they do, still, win fewer close games than similar teams. See you did eventually sort of prove your point once you started using the data properly. The Bills are 20-21 though not 18-20. 

 

What is interesting is that among those teams the Bills have played the fewest 1 score games:

 

Kansas City 49

Green Bay & Tennessee 47

Buffalo 41

 

But I am persuaded that it is an area where we need to improve and I think our record being poorer does reflect on coaching.