We don't have the mentality to win close games

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So showing the Bills record in close games is not good, and citing stats mean nothing? This is getting old.  The 2021 5-1 record as said was not as good as it looked and have yes talked about two games that the Bills won comfortably but looked closer on paper.  

 

Sorry tds scored the last two minutes when you can't get the ball back (outside an onside kick) are not really close.  

 

Almost blowing a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter brings up other questions which I bever commented on, just pointingout now.

 

And again how many times have I said McD has grown on me and still people see red when I question anything?  This entire thread I haven't  outside just stating a fact that the Bills have not been good in close games.

 

BTW in the playoffs the Bills are 1-3 in one score games under McD.  

 

 

On the BTW, I know. I was the one who pointed that out. CITING A SINGLE SEASON THAT IS A STATISTICAL OUTLIER MEANS NOTHING. Capped to try and make it clear. Because at this stage for you to still not get that is concerning. I have no problem with people criticising the coaches whether I agree or disagree. I have an issue with you picking a statistical outlier and then saying it proves something. It proves nothing. 

 

If you want to say that some of those 7 close losses last year were on coaching - absolutely fine. I have agreed with you that two of the big ones definitely were and while it wasn't coaching that cost us at the end of that game in Jacksonville and the OL was atrocious that day I wouldn't argue that was a well coached game by the Bills either. But to say that they prove McDermott is a bad coach in close games while refusing to countenance the evidence that disputes that finding is the very essence of skewing statistics to fit a narrative. 

[Billsfan1972]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On the BTW, I know. I was the one who pointed that out. CITING A SINGLE SEASON THAT IS A STATISTICAL OUTLIER MEANS NOTHING. Capped to try and make it clear. Because at this stage for you to still not get that is concerning. I have no problem with people criticising the coaches whether I agree or disagree. I have an issue with you picking a statistical outlier and then saying it proves something. It proves nothing. 

 

If you want to say that some of those 7 close losses last year were on coaching - absolutely fine. I have agreed with you that two of the big ones definitely were and while it wasn't coaching that cost us at the end of that game in Jacksonville and the OL was atrocious that day I wouldn't argue that was a well coached game by the Bills either. But to say that they prove McDermott is a bad coach in close games while refusing to countenance the evidence that disputes that finding is the very essence of skewing statistics to fit a narrative. 

I never said he was bad.  I've also shown McD's record since the start and it is not great.  

 

You say 2021 is an outlier, but every other good team was fine in close games. 

 

I don't solely blame McD on the record, but have said at times late game decisions have been questionable.  

 

We're really not that much apart on our thoughts, but think you are missing my point.

 

If anything, what's bothering me is that the Bills played Meh the last two weeks.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I never said he was bad.  I've also shown McD's record since the start and it is not great.  

 

You say 2021 is an outlier, but every other good team was fine in close games. 

 

I don't solely blame McD on the record, but have said at times late game decisions have been questionable.  

 

We're really not that much apart on our thoughts, but think you are missing my point.

 

If anything, what's bothering me is that the Bills played Meh the last two weeks.

 

I'm not missing you point. you are not making the point you think you are making. 2021 IS an outlier. If you don't get that I can't help you. That is just numbers. 

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not missing you point. you are not making the point you think you are making. 2021 IS an outlier. If you don't get that I can't help you. That is just numbers. 

And you keep saying outlier.  Sorry that is a weak excuse to what certainly were issues late in games.

 

So are the Ravens now an outlier or is it coaching?

 

In 2021, Lamar was out, so I won't blame coaching there.

 

2022 vs. Miami, defence fell apart and Lamar needed just one more first down and they win.

 

Vs. Buffalo again they didn't execute on the goal line and again the defense didn't make a play down the stretch.

 

The 0-7 stretch all had situations down the stretch where the Bills failed. Some on the players, some on coaching.  

 

But quit the lazy outlier argument.

 

[teef]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I never said he was bad.  I've also shown McD's record since the start and it is not great.  

 

You say 2021 is an outlier, but every other good team was fine in close games. 

 

I don't solely blame McD on the record, but have said at times late game decisions have been questionable.  

 

We're really not that much apart on our thoughts, but think you are missing my point.

 

If anything, what's bothering me is that the Bills played Meh the last two weeks.

this also means nothing.  

5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And you keep saying outlier.  Sorry that is a weak excuse to what certainly were issues late in games.

 

So are the Ravens now an outlier or is it coaching?

 

In 2021, Lamar was out, so I won't blame coaching there.

 

2022 vs. Miami, defence fell apart and Lamar needed just one more first down and they win.

 

Vs. Buffalo again they didn't execute on the goal line and again the defense didn't make a play down the stretch.

 

The 0-7 stretch all had situations down the stretch where the Bills failed. Some on the players, some on coaching.  

 

But quit the lazy outlier argument.

 

do you not realize that one of the best posters on this board is trying to be reasonable and explain something to you?  have you ever once considered that maybe your thinking was wrong, and others weren't just coming down you you?  this is almost getting sad.

[Mikey]

On 9/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, UKBillFan said:

Complete chokers across the board, with no clue how to play when under pressure. Offense was putrid and the play calling little better. Favourites for the Superbowl? Only if the defense is fully fit because the Offense, even with the so called predicted MVP, is not good enough.

 

ETA 15 minutes later - Won't delete the original post because I have to own it. But now I've calmed down slightly... still annoying. And I think I'll still have doubts about us being able to able to cope with the pressure of a one score game at the death until we win one of them.

Seems that you're just passionate about the team and needed to vent with your original post. Understandable.

 

I'm enjoying the season one game at a time. Been exciting for this first part and lets see how we do against Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

I think our O will start firing on all thrusters soon enough. I've been impressed at the mindset on D and bringing Von Miller over here I think has really amped up their mindset so lets look at that positive-

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

And what makes these last 4 pages just so much fun, is that I started on this thread not agreeing (or disagreeing) with the premise/statement, just saying how personally some people take it.

 

And I love that all the stats I showed (and others), the losing record that McD has in close games and that I had the audacity to claim that TDs scored in the last two minutes where only recovering an onside kick could result in any chance to tie/win the game is really "not a close game" had some upset.  

 

And I'm not questioning the coaching or team play anywhere the first 58 minutes of a game, just was discussing the last 2. 

 

But some people as I've noted when it comes to the coaching just see red when it is discussed.

 

Remember too I have said that vs. Baltimore, the Bills & the coaches did everything right and have applauded them for that. 

[Beast]

What’s a close game? The score when the clock strikes 0:00?

 

How about a game where a team is up by one score in the 4th quarter and then pulls away? Is that a close game? At halftime?
 

I think these sort of stats are very subjective.

[LeGOATski]

18 minutes ago, Beast said:

What’s a close game? The score when the clock strikes 0:00?

 

How about a game where a team is up by one score in the 4th quarter and then pulls away? Is that a close game? At halftime?
 

I think these sort of stats are very subjective.

I like the standard of "within 1 score any time in the 4th quarter"

[Billsfan1972]

13 minutes ago, Beast said:

What’s a close game? The score when the clock strikes 0:00?

 

How about a game where a team is up by one score in the 4th quarter and then pulls away? Is that a close game? At halftime?
 

I think these sort of stats are very subjective.

One score is a close game to me if the opposing team has the ball in the last 2-3 minutes and a chance to tie or win. 

 

Yes a tie game in the fourth (or within three) and then a team pulls away can be close too, but is not the same nail-biter as your team up by 3-7 and the opposing team with the ball with 3 minutes to go or you down by 3-7 with the ball in the same situation.  And of course a tie.

 

So next someone will try and use the argument that a 3-7 point spread no longer close after a pick-6 in the last minute.

 

As we know watching the Bills, that has not happened in the last 5-7 seasons I'm quite sure.

 

When I too cited every other good teams' records in 2021 as being winning in these one score scenarios, I did not do a deep dive, just looked for those games <7.  I did however remember many of the games, especially OT or late wins/losses of FG's or TDs.   

 

  

[GunnerBill]

31 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And what makes these last 4 pages just so much fun, is that I started on this thread not agreeing (or disagreeing) with the premise/statement, just saying how personally some people take it.

 

And I love that all the stats I showed (and others), the losing record that McD has in close games and that I had the audacity to claim that TDs scored in the last two minutes where only recovering an onside kick could result in any chance to tie/win the game is really "not a close game" had some upset.  

 

And I'm not questioning the coaching or team play anywhere the first 58 minutes of a game, just was discussing the last 2. 

 

But some people as I've noted when it comes to the coaching just see red when it is discussed.

 

Remember too I have said that vs. Baltimore, the Bills & the coaches did everything right and have applauded them for that. 

 

I'm not exercised about your view on coaching. I'm exercised about your statistical methodology which is next to useless. 

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I like the standard of "within 1 score any time in the 4th quarter"

Good for you, and I won't disagree, but as per the Thread and my personal opinion, it is when you are on pins & needles that last drive.

 

I have used the back door cover comment and said I wasn't worried the last 5 minutes with Miami or the Raiders & more just upset that the Bills were scored on and only concerned as to recovering the onside kick (in 2020 the % recovered was 4%, in 2021 15%).

[LeGOATski]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Good for you, and I won't disagree, but as per the Thread and my personal opinion, it is when you are on pins & needles that last drive.

 

I have used the back door cover comment and said I wasn't worried the last 5 minutes with Miami or the Raiders & more just upset that the Bills were scored on and only concerned as to recovering the onside kick (in 2020 the % recovered was 4%, in 2021 15%).

If we're using it as a barometer for coaching, I think it's a good reflection on everything that was done in the first 3+ quarters to get the team to that point and win (or lose) the game. A close game is a close game is a close game.

[Billsfan1972]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm not exercised about your view on coaching. I'm exercised about your statistical methodology which is next to useless. 

And you've shown none but have claimed the word "Outlier" to defend your position.

 

Again I did not blame the coaching on the majority of the losses (since that seems to be what irks people here).

 

I do however hold them responsible in the games vs. KC, TB & Miami (and to a lesser extent NE) when talking about late game decisions/calls.    

 

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

If we're using it as a barometer for coaching, I think it's a good reflection on everything that was done in the first 3+ quarters to get the team to that point and win (or lose) the game. A close game is a close game is a close game.

I get it, but this is a circular argument & I'm talking only the end of games.  Want me to recall a play from the first quarter I disagreed with?  It's 60 minutes & I get it.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I get it, but this is a circular argument & I'm talking only the end of games.  Want me to recall a play from the first quarter I disagreed with?  It's 60 minutes & I get it.

Okay. I really don't care where you want to take it. I was originally replying to a different poster.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And you've shown none but have claimed the word "Outlier" to defend your position.

 

 

In 2017 the Bills went 6-2 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2018 the Bills went 3-3 in one score games in the regular season

In 2019 the Bills went 4-5 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2020 the Bills went 5-1 in one score games in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs)

In 2021 the Bills went 0-6 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

So far in 2022 the Bills have gone 1-1 in one score games in the regular season

 

When you have a statistical data set and one of the data points varies significantly from the median that is an outlier. 

[Billsfan1972]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In 2017 the Bills went 6-2 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2018 the Bills went 3-3 in one score games in the regular season

In 2019 the Bills went 4-5 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2020 the Bills went 5-1 in one score games in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs)

In 2021 the Bills went 0-6 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

So far in 2022 the Bills have gone 1-1 in one score games in the regular season

 

When you have a statistical data set and one of the data points varies significantly from the median that is an outlier. 

Your #'s are slightly off (surprise in your favour)

 

Including playoffs 

2017 5-3

2018 3-3

2019 4-6

2020 5-1

2021 0-6

2022 1-1 (thread started prior to the win)

Again overall 18-20 <.500 and Bills Record overall 55-37

Edited October 6, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And what makes these last 4 pages just so much fun, is that I started on this thread not agreeing (or disagreeing) with the premise/statement, just saying how personally some people take it.

 

And I love that all the stats I showed (and others), the losing record that McD has in close games and that I had the audacity to claim that TDs scored in the last two minutes where only recovering an onside kick could result in any chance to tie/win the game is really "not a close game" had some upset.  

 

And I'm not questioning the coaching or team play anywhere the first 58 minutes of a game, just was discussing the last 2. 

 

But some people as I've noted when it comes to the coaching just see red when it is discussed.

 

Remember too I have said that vs. Baltimore, the Bills & the coaches did everything right and have applauded them for that. 

i don't think you even understand what is being discussed anymore.  you know what this is all about?  it's was about people using and 0-7 record to describe mcd's record in close games.  the argument was that's only the record for one year, (2021) and wasn't a true representation of close game records.  to get an accurate representation, you'd have to use his entire career here.   you were asked multiple times whether you agree, and you wouldn't answer.  instead, you just start manipulating date to prove a point that wasn't even asked in the first place.  we all see it.  you just can't.

 

want to know how to end this?  just answer whether you think it's more appropriate to look at an entire career, or just one year when evaluating a coaches win/loss record in close games.  do that and people will have a reasonable conversation with you.  this is not on everyone else.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

i don't think you even understand what is being discussed anymore.  you know what this is all about?  it's was about people using and 0-7 record to describe mcd's record in close games.  the argument was that's only the record for one year, (2021) and wasn't a true representation of close game records.  to get an accurate representation, you'd have to use his entire career here.   you were asked multiple times whether you agree, and you wouldn't answer.  instead, you just start manipulating date to prove a point that wasn't even asked in the first place.  we all see it.  you just can't.

 

want to know how to end this?  just answer whether you think it's more appropriate to look at an entire career, or just one year when evaluating a coaches win/loss record in close games.  do that and people will have a reasonable conversation with you.  this is not on everyone else.

Huh.....  Looked at the whole career and it is a losing record and the team has a great w/l record.

 

Here's the random example KC with Mahomes as their QB (as that is the team we're striving to beat), they are 26-12 in close games.....  A lot more then the Bills and a record that is in line with their overall record.

 

I'm tired, you want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

[teef]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Huh.....  Looked at the whole career and it is a losing record and the team has a great w/l record.

 

Here's the random example KC with Mahomes as their QB (as that is the team we're striving to beat), they are 26-12 in close games.....  A lot more then the Bills and a record that is in line with their overall record.

 

I'm tired, you want to try some other winning teams and see their results?  Sure they will be similar.

what do other wining team's results have to do with anything.  you add information that doesn't really mean anything.  

 

listen...you have an idea/opinion in your head based on how you're looking at the information.  multiple good posters, (not saying me) have explained why your methods just aren't accurate.  your choice is to learn from it or not.  this is just a situation where someone can't admit they're wrong.  on top of that, you're skewing data just to fit your argument.  no one is seeing red.  you just can't let it go.  i have no idea why.  

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In 2017 the Bills went 6-2 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2018 the Bills went 3-3 in one score games in the regular season

In 2019 the Bills went 4-5 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

In 2020 the Bills went 5-1 in one score games in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs)

In 2021 the Bills went 0-6 in one score games in the regular season (0-1 in the playoffs)

So far in 2022 the Bills have gone 1-1 in one score games in the regular season

 

When you have a statistical data set and one of the data points varies significantly from the median that is an outlier. 

look at this @Billsfan1972.  this is all you need to know.  it shouldn't have gone any further than this, but apparently these results don't make you angry at mcd enough.  isn't that what's really going on here?