We don't have the mentality to win close games

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Thanks. I got clarification on the Bills PR team's stat: it's 33-23 in games that are within 1 score in the 4th quarter. So that obviously includes a majority of those games the Bills were already leading.

Well that's just a little different. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Well that's just a little different. 

It's a "close" game, by definition, with the stat's purpose being to dispell that notion that they can't win close games.

[Billy Claude]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Thanks. I got clarification on the Bills PR team's stat: it's 33-23 in games that are within 1 score in the 4th quarter. So that obviously includes a majority of those games the Bills were already leading.

 

Thanks for the clarification. Seems much more reasonable.

[galept]

It's like Von said about being 0-7 past two years in close games or whatever the stat was: "I just got here, and that's not the mentality I've seen." 

 

This is a new kind of team, where old narratives matter less and less. I truly believe that.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

6 minutes ago, galept said:

It's like Von said about being 0-7 past two years in close games or whatever the stat was: "I just got here, and that's not the mentality I've seen." 

 

This is a new kind of team, where old narratives matter less and less. I truly believe that.

🔥 it all

 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

They were 13-3 in 2020.  Miami scored with 49 seconds left to get within 3.  Raiders scored with under 2 to get within 7.  Barely beating NE that year on a Newton fumble in the red zone nothing to put on your coaching resume.

Horseshoes and hand grenade standards! 🙈

But bottom line,  Allen has already engineered 12 GW drives and 8 4th Q comebacks…to me that says we can win any kind of way the situation calls for, although I have a soft spot for 40+ point burgers…

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=AlleJo02

 

[ToGoGo]

The eye test said it wasn't some sort of "loser mentality", but rather unlucky bounces, and it was a matter of time before the wins came. 

 

For me personally, the people who flocked to that "can't win close games" narrative exposed themselves as not having a good eye for what's happening. There seems to be some sort of internal projection, rather than impartial observation of the team, much less having the ability to spot intangibles. 

[Billsfan1972]

7 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Horseshoes and hand grenade standards! 🙈

But bottom line,  Allen has already engineered 12 GW drives and 8 4th Q comebacks…to me that says we can win any kind of way the situation calls for, although I have a soft spot for 40+ point burgers…

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=AlleJo02

 

Never questioned Allen.  This was about coaching, defense, play calling....

6 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

The eye test said it wasn't some sort of "loser mentality", but rather unlucky bounces, and it was a matter of time before the wins came. 

 

For me personally, the people who flocked to that "can't win close games" narrative exposed themselves as not having a good eye for what's happening. There seems to be some sort of internal projection, rather than impartial observation of the team, much less having the ability to spot intangibles. 

And yet again when it is pointed out that the good teams all in 2021 had winning records in "these games" but the Bills did not, then the argument changes and the excuses start..... 

 

Regardless they are 1-0 since October 2022, everyone happy now????😝 

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

And yet again when it is pointed out that the good teams all in 2021 had winning records in "these games" but the Bills did not, then the argument changes and the excuses start..... 

 

Not about excuses. About asking whether that one season is a pattern or an outlier. That is a legit question. Personally I think there were some unlucky bounces here and there but as I said yesterday the element that was consistent in that run was OL struggles. It would have been interesting to me if Harbaugh had, wrongly, taken the 3 at the end of that Ravens drive. Because now the Bills need to score a touchdown to win and the Ravens D has something to hold onto and they might call it differently. Still interested in can we hold up in pass pro late in games when everyone knows we have no option but to pass? 

 

That is the theme to watch going forward. 

[teef]

10 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

A 33-23 record when trailing at the end of the 3rd is not likely since I would guess 85-90% of the time, the team winning after 3 quarters wins the game.

 

I like data so I was curious what the actual record is.  Here is the Bills' record under McDermott when trailing, tied, and leading after 3 quarters:

 

TOTAL

trailing  4 - 24   (0.143)

tie         4 - 2     (0.667)

leading  45 - 6  (0.883)

 

Here is the breakdown by year:

 

2017

trailing     0 - 6

tie  none

leading 9 - 1   (L = CIN)

 

2018

trailing  1-9  (W = DET)

tie   1 -0 ( W = JAC)

leading 4-1 (L = NYJ)

 

2019

trailing 3-3 (W = NYJ, MIA, PIT)

tie 1-1 (W = TEN, L=NYJ)

leading 7 - 1 (L = NE)

 

2020

trailing 0-3

tie 1-0 (W = NE)

leading 12 - 0

 

2021

trailing  0 - 3

tie  0 - 1  (L=JAC)

leading 11-2  (L = PIT, TEN) 

 

2022

trailing  none

tie  1 - 0 (W = BAL)

leading 2 - 1 (L = MIA)

 

thank you for doing the work.

8 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

The eye test said it wasn't some sort of "loser mentality", but rather unlucky bounces, and it was a matter of time before the wins came. 

 

For me personally, the people who flocked to that "can't win close games" narrative exposed themselves as not having a good eye for what's happening. There seems to be some sort of internal projection, rather than impartial observation of the team, much less having the ability to spot intangibles. 

i think you summed this up perfectly.

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Never questioned Allen.  This was about coaching, defense, play calling....

And yet again when it is pointed out that the good teams all in 2021 had winning records in "these games" but the Bills did not, then the argument changes and the excuses start..... 

 

Regardless they are 1-0 since October 2022, everyone happy now????😝 

it's always about the coaching with you. in this thread you've tried incredibly hard to prove a point about mcd that just wasn't there.  multiple times you were ask why you weren't looking beyond 2021, and you wouldn't give an answer.  why?  because may it wouldn't jive with your narrative that this staff can't win close games.  when you did have to dive in a bit, you start eliminating games you didn't think counted, etc.  you just wouldn't have an honest  conversation about it.  we've seen this over and over with you.  if you don't like the coaching staff...fine, but at least be genuine with your posting. 

 

and who is making excuses?  no one.  multiple posters have said multiple times that 2021 was a bad year for this team when it came to ending games.  it just wasn't a representation of how mcd has done since his tenure here, no matter how bad you want it to be.  you call out other posters for being mcd worshipers, but maybe the problem is with you.  you want so hard to find flaws with mcd as a coach, that you just won't listen to reason.  no one in this thread has lied to you.  no one is making excuses.  the reality is that if you want to see who mcd is as a coach in close games, look at his career in buffalo, and not just one down season.  

 

@newcam2012 yesterday we talked about how some posters are "attacked" not because of their viewpoint, but rather their approach.  read through these last few pages and tell me what you think.  

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, teef said:

thank you for doing the work.

i think you summed this up perfectly.

it's always about the coaching with you. in this thread you've tried incredibly hard to prove a point about mcd that just wasn't there.  multiple times you were ask why you weren't looking beyond 2021, and you wouldn't give an answer.  why?  because may it wouldn't jive with your narrative that this staff can't win close games.  when you did have to dive in a bit, you start eliminating games you didn't think counted, etc.  you just wouldn't have an honest  conversation about it.  we've seen this over and over with you.  if you don't like the coaching staff...fine, but at least be genuine with your posting. 

 

and who is making excuses?  no one.  multiple posters have said multiple times that 2021 was a bad year for this team when it came to ending games.  it just wasn't a representation of how mcd has done since his tenure here, no matter how bad you want it to be.  you call out other posters for being mcd worshipers, but maybe the problem is with you.  you want so hard to find flaws with mcd as a coach, that you just won't listen to reason.  no one in this thread has lied to you.  no one is making excuses.  the reality is that if you want to see who mcd is as a coach in close games, look at his career in buffalo, and not just one down season.  

 

@newcam2012 yesterday we talked about how some posters are "attacked" not because of their viewpoint, but rather their approach.  read through these last few pages and tell me what you think.  

Well someone did the work and showed that what has been discussed was pretty bang on, but those #'s don't jive with you for some reason.

 

Not having a good eye, I guess means you know better then me?  Well I'm sure you do and it is just bad bounces and bad luck....  Okay....  

 

And yes Teef, to me a lot has to do with the coaching (13 seconds will not be easily forgotten as there were just so many mistakes, all on the coaching imo).

 

Yes I have removed two back door covers from the 13-3 season, because they were just that, where the Bills were well ahead (like yesterday the Rams if they scored down 24-9 in the last 2 minutes did manage to score). 

 

Do I blame McD for Kyler Murray's Hail Mary?  No....  Do I think he made the right call vs. Tennessee?  Yes I do (though I think they were disorganized on 4th down).  I however think coaching was responsible for KC, TB, Miami (time management).  NE & Jax a lot could have been done differently (and weather in the NE game), so who knows.  The Pitt game was just an anomaly and the Bills seemed unprepared for some reason. 

 

Just was talking about the last 2 minutes. 

 

And remember I have praised McD and the team for brilliantly handling the last 2 minutes Sunday vs. The Ravens.   

 

     

Edited October 4, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Well someone did the work and showed that what has been discussed was pretty bang on, but those #'s don't jive with you for some reason.

 

Not having a good eye, I guess means you know better then me?  Well I'm sure you do and it is just bad bounces and bad luck....  Okay....  

 

And yes Teef, to me a lot has to do with the coaching (13 seconds will not be easily forgotten as there were just so many mistakes, all on the coaching imo).

 

Yes I have removed two back door covers from the 13-3 season, because they were just that, where the Bills were well ahead (like yesterday the Rams if they scored down 24-9 in the last 2 minutes did manage to score). 

 

Do I blame McD for Kyler Murray's Hail Mary?  No....  Do I think he made the right call vs. Tennessee?  Yes I do.  I however think coaching was responsible for KC, TB, Miami (time management).  NE & Jax a lot could have been done differently (and weather in the NE game), so who knows.  The Pitt game was just an anomaly and the Bills seemed unprepared for some reason. 

 

Just was talking about the last 2 minutes. 

 

And remember I have praised McD and the team for brilliantly handling the last 2 minutes Sunday vs. The Ravens.   

 

     

what exactly don't i have a good eye on?   honestly...this post is you just reeling.  my only point in this discussion was that using only the 2021 close game records to describe mcd wasn't a true representation of who he is as a coach.  you had a problem with that, and tried to manipulate records to prove your point.  

[Billsfan1972]

17 minutes ago, teef said:

what exactly don't i have a good eye on?   honestly...this post is you just reeling.  my only point in this discussion was that using only the 2021 close game records to describe mcd wasn't a true representation of who he is as a coach.  you had a problem with that, and tried to manipulate records to prove your point.  

Wasn't your eye it was you responding to ToGoGo, who explained how much better his eyes were in assessing plays/coaching/late game situations😉.  Didn't mean hurt your feelings.

 

2021 is a perfectly fine reference point as their record was just so bad and as I pointed out, but you ignored, every winning team (acknowledged as good or SB contenders) all had at worst .500 records in these "close" games.  And if they pulled out 1 game, they probably get home field through the playoffs.

 

But you keep ignoring that, because acknowledging facts just doesn't suit your narrative. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wasn't your eye it was you responding to ToGoGo, who explained how much better his eyes were in assessing plays/coaching/late game situations😉.  Didn't mean hurt your feelings.

 

2021 is a perfectly fine reference point as their record was just so bad and as I pointed out, but you ignored, every winning team (acknowledged as good or SB contenders) all had at worst .500 records in these "close" games.  And if they pulled out 1 game, they probably get home field through the playoffs.

 

But you keep ignoring that, because acknowledging facts just doesn't suit your narrative. 

2021 is just one year.  who cares what other teams did that year?  there's no point to even bringing up other teams.  adding stats doesn't prove your point.  you're still only concentrating on one year.  the bills had a very down year, which if you look at mcd's entire record, isn't typical.  that's why i'm saying.  if you can't comprehend it.  that's on you.  what togogo said was 100% accurate.  posters who focus only on 2021 are doing so to push this narrative that mcd can't win close games.  his overall record shows he can.  that's it.  you know other posters read this and key in on what you're doing right?  everyone knows you're being absurd because your point wasn't valid.  again, no one is piling on you...you completely deserve the grief you get on here.

[Billsfan1972]

53 minutes ago, teef said:

2021 is just one year.  who cares what other teams did that year?  there's no point to even bringing up other teams.  adding stats doesn't prove your point.  you're still only concentrating on one year.  the bills had a very down year, which if you look at mcd's entire record, isn't typical.  that's why i'm saying.  if you can't comprehend it.  that's on you.  what togogo said was 100% accurate.  posters who focus only on 2021 are doing so to push this narrative that mcd can't win close games.  his overall record shows he can.  that's it.  you know other posters read this and key in on what you're doing right?  everyone knows you're being absurd because your point wasn't valid.  again, no one is piling on you...you completely deserve the grief you get on here.

Hey Pot.....  Kettle calling....  How absurd are you.

 

Who cares that other teams are successful, but the Bills are not?  You really said that?  Hey the Giants won 5 games, but let's not look at that because wins/losses don't really matter?  Winning close games are important and all the good teams showed that in 2021, except one team.  That team was Buffalo.

 

How many stats do you need to show that as a fact?

 

Billy Claude showed a great rundown (you even approved it) and it showed the Bills being not particularly good when trailing.

 

So let's move forward as I pointed out that the Bills are 1-0 from October 1, 2022.  Let's hope the one game trend continues.😉 

[teef]

8 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Hey Pot.....  Kettle calling....  How absurd are you.

 

Who cares that other teams are successful, but the Bills are not?  You really said that?  Hey the Giants won 5 games, but let's not look at that because wins/losses don't really matter?  Winning close games are important and all the good teams showed that in 2021, except one team.  That team was Buffalo.

 

How many stats do you need to show that as a fact?

 

Billy Claude showed a great rundown (you even approved it) and it showed the Bills being not particularly good when trailing.

 

So let's move forward as I pointed out that the Bills are 1-0 from October 1, 2022.  Let's hope the one game trend continues.😉 

why add the stat about other teams?  why did you hope to prove?  i'm not sure you even understand what  you've been reading here.  ever notice how the majority of your conversations go this way?  why do you think that is?  everyone else is off and you're spot on?

 

if you don't like mcd, that fine.  it's a valid opinion, but when you try to manipulate the numbers to show your point, you're going to get called out on it.  you were here, and now you don't know how to back down.  i don't have to prove anything to you.  the board sees what you're doing here.  

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, teef said:

why add the stat about other teams?  why did you hope to prove?  i'm not sure you even understand what  you've been reading here.  ever notice how the majority of your conversations go this way?  why do you think that is?  everyone else is off and you're spot on?

 

if you don't like mcd, that fine.  it's a valid opinion, but when you try to manipulate the numbers to show your point, you're going to get called out on it.  you were here, and now you don't know how to back down.  i don't have to prove anything to you.  the board sees what you're doing here.  

 If every good team is able to win close games but the Bills that means nothing to you? I've said I'm looking forward,  

 

 And I love that it doesn't matter what other teams do. Can't argue that point🤣

 

 If you're OK losing close games all the power to you.

[teef]

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 If every good team is able to win close games but the Bills that means nothing to you? I've said I'm looking forward,  

 

 And I love that it doesn't matter what other teams do. Can't argue that point🤣

 

 If you're OK losing close games all the power to you.

jesus dude.  other teams being better than the bills in 2021 really makes no difference.  again...my only point was that you can't just use one year of close game records to show what kind of coach mcd was in close games.  it's that simple.  it amazing to me that you've turned this into something it didn't need to be.  i'm not sure how you live your life.

[Augie]

45 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 If every good team is able to win close games but the Bills that means nothing to you? I've said I'm looking forward,  

 

 And I love that it doesn't matter what other teams do. Can't argue that point🤣

 

 If you're OK losing close games all the power to you.

 

Last year we lost a strange number of one score games. The year before we WON a strange number of one score games. If you want to look at the past, I think you have to look at the overall big picture and the trend. This year we are 1-1 in one score games, which brings us back to about the norm. 

 

I can’t look at just 2020 and say we were great, and ignore 2021. I think it is just as flawed to look only at 2021 and ignore 2020.

 

 

. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Augie

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Last year we lost a strange number of one score games. There year before we WON a strange number of one score games. If you want to look at the past, I think you have to look at the overall big picture and the trend. This year we are 1-1 in one score games, which brings us back to about the norm. 

 

I can’t look at just 2020 and say we were great, and ignore 2021. I think it is just as flawed to look only at 2021 and ignore 2020. 

 

Selective memory 

 

Cherry 🍒 pick some stat that will draw a Buzz