We don't have the mentality to win close games

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, teef said:

they're close games the bills won.  it counts whether you agree with it or not.  it's insane you don't think they count, and this is why you get the grief you do.  don't say something isn't arguable because stats back it up, then completely manipulate numbers so it works in you favor.  this has been the last few pages of this thread.  certain posters just want to look at last year and this year when it comes to close games.  that's not mcd's resume.  it's starts in 2017, so base his coaching talent in close games from that time at least.  was it bad in 2021...sure, but that single year doesn't show a picture of him overall as a coach in close games.  

Again I explained back door covers.....  Unless you are the Cleveland Browns and blow a game with a win probability of 99.9% (Jets).

[Scott7975]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Again I explained back door covers.....  Unless you are the Cleveland Browns and blow a game with a win probability of 99.9% (Jets).

 

Ok now remove the "back door covers" for all teams from the last 3+ years and let me know where everyone ranks.

[teef]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again I explained back door covers.....  Unless you are the Cleveland Browns and blow a game with a win probability of 99.9% (Jets).

It doesn’t matter.  A win is win whether you agree with it or not.  You can’t do that and have a serious discussion.  

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, teef said:

It doesn’t matter.  A win is win whether you agree with it or not.  You can’t do that and have a serious discussion.  

 

Is this the same guy as the 300 yards guy? lol.

[LeGOATski]

13 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

That's actually incredible if true

Idk, could just be a made up stat, but I'm pretty sure the Bills PR team posted something about it

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

They were 13-3 in 2020.  Miami scored with 49 seconds left to get within 3.  Raiders scored with under 2 to get within 7.  Barely beating NE that year on a Newton fumble in the red zone nothing to put on your coaching resume.

Haha, OK so let's just get rid of the games you choose. The Bills are 0-500 all time in 1 score games (after removing the ones that Billsfan1972 deems unworthy of the data set).

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

 

2019: 4-6 (one game was a week 17 throwaway game in which our backups played the Jets)

2020: 5-1

2021:  0-6

 

I don't know where that ranks league-wide, but I'd hardly call it a trend.  It's more likely that last season was a fluke.

 

 

 

Well it is/was absolutely a trend. That can't really be debated because the wins and losses are what they are and there was a pattern. It was every much a trend as the winning streak the year prior was.

Is it meaningful or indicative of success? maybe, maybe not. There's been some analysis done on single score wins, but it doesn't seem to indicate much over short periods of time because there are many other factors that need to be taken into account. McD is sitting on a 19-21 record right now, which i think is fairly average, but I'm not certain.

[ColoradoBills]

Good grief with this 1 score stuff.

The Bills last year lost to the Steelers in a 1 score game.

Any of you "trend" posters picking the Steelers to repeat that feat?

[Billsfan1972]

So being up by 10 + points with under two minutes to go and the team scores to get it within one score that's a great accomplishment? I get it now.

 

Geez you guys are something else.

 

Go check other Elite teams in 2021. By and large they won close games or were around .500 at worst.  The Buccaneers, Chiefs, Green Bay, Rams La Chargers Las Vegas Raiders just a few examples of teams that all were well above .500 in 1 score games in 2021?

 

Oh and the worst number 1 seed Tennessee also won the majority of their close games.

 

Don't let facts get in the way of piling on which seems to be some people's modus operandi.

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So being up by 10 + points with under two minutes to go and the team scores to get it within one score that's a great accomplishment? I get it now.

 

Geez you guys are something else.

 

Go check other Elite teams in 2021. By and large they won close games or were around .500 at worst.  The Buccaneers, Chiefs, Green Bay, Rams La Chargers Las Vegas Raiders just a few examples of teams that all were well above 500 in 1 score games in 2021?

 

Don't let facts get in the way of piling on which seems to be some people's modus operandi.

 

now go back to the loses and do the same thing.  i have to imagine there are game were the bills scored late but still lost, making it look like they were in a tight match.  you just can't manipulate numbers like that...i don't know why that so hard  for you to understand.  on top of that, you only focus on 2021 when describing mcd in close games.  why not find out the close game record from 2017 to current to get a much better picture.

 

this is typical of you.  you post misleading, manipulated "facts" to prove a point.  when you get called out on it, you're being piled on.  you're not a victim.   you just don't like that people see through the nonsense.

[Billy Claude]

15 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

It's not true. Since McDermott got there in 2017, the Bills are something like 33-23 when trailing to start the 4th quarter. It's just last season's misfortune that got everyone up in arms about it.

 

15 hours ago, Simon said:

 

That's actually incredible if true

 

 

Definitely a made up stat.  The Bills are 52-33, not counting playoffs under McDermott.  If they went 33-23 that means 60% of their wins came when trailing at the beginning of the 4th.

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Billy Claude
fixed record to be 52-33

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

now go back to the loses and do the same thing.  i have to imagine there are game were the bills scored late but still lost, making it look like they were in a tight match.  you just can't manipulate numbers like that...i don't know why that so hard  for you to understand.  on top of that, you only focus on 2021 when describing mcd in close games.  why not find out the close game record from 2017 to current to get a much better picture.

 

this is typical of you.  you post misleading, manipulated "facts" to prove a point.  when you get called out on it, you're being piled on.  you're not a victim.   you just don't like that people see through the nonsense.

Actually they haven't and the fact that you won't even look and just make a comment that is blatantly incorrect shows how lazy you are when it comes to this site.

 

But some people find you witty so I guess that's all that counts. How about you coming up and showing some facts?  Oh sorry that takes some work.

 

I'm sure the bills had some back door covers in 2018 2019 in 2017 and that should make you happy.

3 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

 

Definitely a made up stat.  The Bills are 52-33, not counting playoffs under McDermott.  If they went 33-23 that means 60% of their wins came when trailing at the beginning of the 4th.

 

I'm sure Teef bought it.....🤣

Edited October 3, 2022 by Billsfan1972

[teef]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Actually they haven't and the fact that you won't even look and just make a comment that is blatantly incorrect shows how lazy you are when it comes to this site.

 

But some people find you witty so I guess that's all that counts. How about you coming up and showing some facts. Oh sorry that takes some work.

 

I'm sure the bills had some back door covers in 2018 2019 in 2017 and that should make you happy.

I'm sure Teef bought it.....🤣

i'm not the one making up insane comments that need to get backed up.   show my that hasn't happened with the losses.  why keep concentrating on 2021 and not any other season.  why are you eliminating games to make your argument seem more valid.  

 

you really do deserve the blow back you get from posters on this board.  the sad thing is you don't know why.

[without a drought]

5 minutes ago, teef said:

now go back to the loses and do the same thing.  i have to imagine there are game were the bills scored late but still lost, making it look like they were in a tight match.  you just can't manipulate numbers like that...i don't know why that so hard  for you to understand.  on top of that, you only focus on 2021 when describing mcd in close games.  why not find out the close game record from 2017 to current to get a much better picture.

 

this is typical of you.  you post misleading, manipulated "facts" to prove a point.  when you get called out on it, you're being piled on.  you're not a victim.   you just don't like that people see through the nonsense.

When are you going to start taking this stuff serious and put in the work necessary to become a more annoying poster? Even your witty responses have become lazy.

[teef]

3 minutes ago, without a drought said:

When are you going to start taking this stuff serious and put in the work necessary to become a more annoying poster? Even your witty responses have become lazy.

my feelings!

[LeGOATski]

13 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

 

Definitely a made up stat.  The Bills are 52-33, not counting playoffs under McDermott.  If they went 33-23 that means 60% of their wins came when trailing at the beginning of the 4th.

 

Is it crazy? They have a winning record, but didn't start blowing out teams until recently.

[Billy Claude]

14 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Is it crazy? They have a winning record, but didn't start blowing out teams until recently.

 

A 33-23 record when trailing at the end of the 3rd is not likely since I would guess 85-90% of the time, the team winning after 3 quarters wins the game.

 

I like data so I was curious what the actual record is.  Here is the Bills' record under McDermott when trailing, tied, and leading after 3 quarters:

 

TOTAL

trailing  4 - 25   (0.139)

tie         4 - 2     (0.667)

leading  44 - 6  (0.880)

 

Here is the breakdown by year:

 

2017

trailing     0 - 6

tie  none

leading 9 - 1   (L = CIN)

 

2018

trailing  1-9  (W = DET)

tie   1 -0 ( W = JAC)

leading 4-1 (L = NYJ)

 

2019

trailing 3-4 (W = NYJ, MIA, PIT)

tie 1-1 (W = TEN, L=NYJ)

leading 6 - 1 (L = NE)

 

2020

trailing 0-3

tie 1-0 (W = NE)

leading 12 - 0

 

2021

trailing  0 - 3

tie  0 - 1  (L=JAC)

leading 11-2  (L = PIT, TEN) 

 

2022

trailing  none

tie  1 - 0 (W = BAL)

leading 2 - 1 (L = MIA)

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Billy Claude
fixed one data point

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, teef said:

my feelings!

Teef I totally care about your feelings

[Orlando Buffalo]

5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

A 33-23 record when trailing at the end of the 3rd is not likely since I would guess 85-90% of the time, the team winning after 3 quarters wins the game.

 

I like data so I was curious what the actual record is.  Here is the Bills' record under McDermott when trailing, tied, and leading after 3 quarters:

 

TOTAL

trailing  4 - 24   (0.143)

tie         4 - 2     (0.667)

leading  45 - 6  (0.883)

 

Here is the breakdown by year:

 

2017

trailing     0 - 6

tie  none

leading 9 - 1   (L = CIN)

 

2018

trailing  1-9  (W = DET)

tie   1 -0 ( W = JAC)

leading 4-1 (L = NYJ)

 

2019

trailing 3-3 (W = NYJ, MIA, PIT)

tie 1-1 (W = TEN, L=NYJ)

leading 7 - 1 (L = NE)

 

2020

trailing 0-3

tie 1-0 (W = NE)

leading 12 - 0

 

2021

trailing  0 - 3

tie  0 - 1  (L=JAC)

leading 11-2  (L = PIT, TEN) 

 

2022

trailing  none

tie  1 - 0 (W = BAL)

leading 2 - 1 (L = MIA)

 

Nice work- I don't have any brilliant analysis except that is a lot of numbers.

[LeGOATski]

59 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

A 33-23 record when trailing at the end of the 3rd is not likely since I would guess 85-90% of the time, the team winning after 3 quarters wins the game.

 

I like data so I was curious what the actual record is.  Here is the Bills' record under McDermott when trailing, tied, and leading after 3 quarters:

 

TOTAL

trailing  4 - 24   (0.143)

tie         4 - 2     (0.667)

leading  45 - 6  (0.883)

 

Here is the breakdown by year:

 

2017

trailing     0 - 6

tie  none

leading 9 - 1   (L = CIN)

 

2018

trailing  1-9  (W = DET)

tie   1 -0 ( W = JAC)

leading 4-1 (L = NYJ)

 

2019

trailing 3-3 (W = NYJ, MIA, PIT)

tie 1-1 (W = TEN, L=NYJ)

leading 7 - 1 (L = NE)

 

2020

trailing 0-3

tie 1-0 (W = NE)

leading 12 - 0

 

2021

trailing  0 - 3

tie  0 - 1  (L=JAC)

leading 11-2  (L = PIT, TEN) 

 

2022

trailing  none

tie  1 - 0 (W = BAL)

leading 2 - 1 (L = MIA)

 

Thanks. I got clarification on the Bills PR team's stat: it's 33-23 in games that are within 1 score in the 4th quarter. So that obviously includes a majority of those games the Bills were already leading.