The short yardage conundrum

[SoCal Deek]

Just spread the offense (and therefore the defense) out and run Josh up the middle. Don’t over think it!

[Meatloaf63]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

As great as this team is, the offense struggles in short yardage situations.

 

The Bills were dead-last in the NFL last season on 3rd and 1. And they were 0-4 on 3rd or 4th and 1 last night.

 

Question: Why do you think the Bills struggle in this area and what specifically do you feel that they can do to improve this facet of their offense?

 

Edit: A poster pointed out that we did actually convert one 4th and 1 last night. Sorry about the incorrectness above.

 

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Terrible play calling and design, inability to establish a consistent running game. Moss, relying on Moss🤦‍♂️

Edited September 21, 2022 by Meatloaf63

[Orlando Buffalo]

The Bills offense is built to pick up 8-10 yards a play, we don't value 3 yards much. Therefore I say we just run our normal offense no matter the situation, I saw we are statistically better since the middle of last year on 3rd and 9 or more than 3rd and 1.

2 hours ago, Ross Murdock said:

Actually, I'm concerned about the running game in general. RB's have gotten off to another slow start, and could be an exploited Achilles heal as the season goes on. The Bills have been impressive obviously, but the running game has not. Singletary is average at best. Moss belongs on somebody's practice squad, or cooking Fries. No idea what Cook can do. Maybe this is why our 3rd and ones are horrid?  

Teams are packing up to stop the run and single covering Diggs, which is asking for the Bills to destroy you. Also our O line is good pass blockers but below average run blockers 

[djp14150]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

As great as this team is, the offense struggles in short yardage situations.

 

The Bills were dead-last in the NFL last season on 3rd and 1. And they were 0-4 on 3rd or 4th and 1 last night.

 

Question: Why do you think the Bills struggle in this area and what specifically do you feel that they can do to improve this facet of their offense?

 

Edit: A poster pointed out that we did actually convert one 4th and 1 last night. Sorry about the incorrectness above.

 

.

they played 2 teams who have very strong DLs.

[WickedGame]

How many fourth down plays have we had this year? Like…three?

 

If I ran this offense, I wouldn’t lose a ton of sleep over missing a 3rd and 1 from time to time because I’d go for it on 4th and 1 every time. This team just doesn’t miss on back-to-back plays often (regardless of down and distance).
 

How many times has Josh thrown two consecutive incompletions this year? If it has happened on fewer than 5% of drop backs, that says good things about my odds of converting one yard on two tries. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

they played 2 teams who have very strong DLs.

 

that doesn’t explain ranking in last place last season too

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

The Bills offense is built to pick up 8-10 yards a play, we don't value 3 yards much. Therefore I say we just run our normal offense no matter the situation, I saw we are statistically better since the middle of last year on 3rd and 9 or more than 3rd and 1.

 

This. We're so focused on picking up 1 yard, it's like we forget we're allowed to pick up as many yards as we want. If the whole defense is keying up to stop the run, go play action and hit Diggs with a quick pass 6 yards down the field when he's 1-on-1 versus a rookie CB. I'll take those odds every time over hoping the right side of our OL and a rookie short-armed WR are able to hold their blocks. I think Dorsey, and really all coaches, need to trust the best players on their offense in those situations instead of trying to call the perfect play. Like the 4th and goal play that we scored on was dead, the Titans had McKenzie covered, but because Allen and Diggs are on the field it became a TD anyways.

[GunnerBill]

It is where having Mitch Morse as your center hurts. He has been a big part of our pass game success but he is just not a good people mover in short yardage and our guard play is an has been meh. 

 

It is a bit of everything though, playcalling, execution, lack of push from oline. 

[ndirish1978]

Short yardage is a work in progress this year. I believe we'll figure it out. Red zone defense needs to be stiffer. Hope Oliver and Philips are ready for this week, we will need our pass rush to make up for deficiencies in coverage by our rookie CBs. 

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Just spread the offense (and therefore the defense) out and run Josh up the middle. Don’t over think it!

This is the answer sometime but do we really want Josh Allen taking all those hits how about just spreading them out and letting Reggie Gilliam run it Unlike Moss He really does appear to move piles

[Man with No Name]

Maybe Morse is the key here, as said above. This is something that has bothered me for 2 or 3 years. It might be from watching brady the past 20 years. 3 and 1 or 4 and 1 are always automatic with him, just sneaking behind the center. Feels like this is a play we should be able to execute, but we just don't. not sure of all the intricacies at work, but we need to be better there. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

It is where having Mitch Morse as your center hurts. He has been a big part of our pass game success but he is just not a good people mover in short yardage and our guard play is an has been meh. 

 

It is a bit of everything though, playcalling, execution, lack of push from oline. 

All I know is there is a significant drop off when Singleterry comes out of the game and Moss goes in

 

I understand bringing cook along slowly but I swear to God I would’ve been totally OK if the bills would have gotten rid of moss and kept Blackshear I am so glad that he is on our practice squad so that he is an option down the road

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

All I know is there is a significant drop off when Singleterry comes out of the game and Moss goes in

 

I understand bringing cook along slowly but I swear to God I would’ve been totally OK if the bills would have gotten rid of moss and kept Blackshear I am so glad that he is on our practice squad so that he is an option down the road

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

[Scott7975]

I think one they are over thinking things.  Two its execution when they actually do call a good play.  Like the quick pass from Josh yesterday that hit the dirt.  He was off target trying to fire too fast but that play was perfect if he threw the pass well.  Three they keep treating Moss as some big tough short yardage back and he simply isnt good.  Motor is better at hitting the small holes and getting short yardage.  For whatever reason they still love Moss.  I have banged that drum for two years now.  Lastly, I dont think our Oline gets good enough push on an obvious run up the gut situation.  JMO.

[John from Riverside]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

I feel like we can’t even run him on third and one because he’s such a tackle magnet

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I think one they are over thinking things.  Two its execution when they actually do call a good play.  Like the quick pass from Josh yesterday that hit the dirt.  He was off target trying to fire too fast but that play was perfect if he threw the pass well.  Three they keep treating Moss as some big tough short yardage back and he simply isnt good.  Motor is better at hitting the small holes and getting short yardage.  For whatever reason they still love Moss.  I have banged that drum for two years now.  Lastly, I dont think our Oline gets good enough push on an obvious run up the gut situation.  JMO.

I thought they started putting together that short yardage toughness towards the end of last year not quite sure what’s going on at the beginning of the season it’s like defenses guessed right that it’s going to be a run in there in our backfield

Edited September 21, 2022 by John from Riverside

[Doc Brown]

12 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Singletary converts at a 61.9% clip on runs 3rd/4th down and 3 or less out of 21 attempts.

 

Moss converts at a 60% clip, same criteria on 20 carries.  Virtually identical results. 

Even so.  Moss's roster spot is being justified by a lot of people on here as being their short yardage back.  If he can't even achieve that why is he even activated on game day when Singletary and Cook are more dynamic.  Blocking ability?

6 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

Teams are packing up to stop the run and single covering Diggs, which is asking for the Bills to destroy you. Also our O line is good pass blockers but below average run blockers 

Saffold is a better run blocker.  Just have Josh plow behind him if we're really desperate.  

[Scott7975]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How many 3rd and 1s did Moss run though? 1? I agree I hate running him there because he has zero first step explosion but he is only a small part of that problem. 

 

So far this season just once.  It was last night and it was stuffed. The 4th and 1 that followed it was a pass to Moss too and incomplete.  I dont actually remember the play so I dont know if the pass was a good pass or uncatchable.  He had quite a few last season though.

[Wyobills89]

I could of swore I remember an info graph on a game last year where josh was like 90% or better on 4th and 1. Simmons stuffed us last year in Tennessee, I can't remember the last time we hurried to the line and just forced the pickup. Brady has a good % for picking them up too. We might just need to go back to that. 

 

We definitely got to figure some things out on 3 and 1 though. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

So far this season just once.  It was last night and it was stuffed. The 4th and 1 that followed it was a pass to Moss too and incomplete.  I dont actually remember the play so I dont know if the pass was a good pass or uncatchable.  He had quite a few last season though.

 

Wasn't that the busted play?

 

EDIT: Equally I'm not saying you are wrong. I hate the run up the middle with Moss on 3rd and 1. But I'm just making the point that the long standing 3rd and short struggles are a combination of a lot of factors and Zack Moss is a smallish part of it. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Malazan]

simple solution.. take a penalty to make it 3rd/4th and 6.