The short yardage conundrum

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Its scheme and design. It seems they are intent on going for it on 4th down so they are treating 3rd and 1 like any other down and distance.  Therefore they are in shotgun and running plays that are not necessarily designed to pick up 1 yard.

That is all fine and cute when it is 70 degrees out. But that may not work in December and January. 

Time to go heavy, blow some guys off the ball and let your RB do their job. 

If its only a few inches it should be a quick snap and QB sneak every time. 

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

QB sneak the GD ball.  There is no excuse as to why this offense can’t execute a sneak with the biggest bad a$$ QB to ever play the game.  Don’t give me the bs o-line sux on short yardage crap, the biggest vag of a QB to ever play the game had no problem picking up the first or a TD on sneaks playing behind crappy olines.  Playing 3rd/4th and inches out of the shotgun is as dumb as it gets.  

 

Those OLines were not crappy. Mankins, Koppen, Light, Andruzzi, Solder, Connolly, just off the top of my head. They were consistently a FORCE in the middle that we do not have.

 

And as I noted above, Defenses play our short yardage situations differently than against other teams. They sell out to stop Josh from picking up the sneak, as a hopeful badge of honor.

 

I cant defend the shotgun tho.

[FilthyBeast]

It's still early in the season, but we did just face the best DT in the NFL last week in Aaron Donald and another top 10 one in Jeffrey Simmons.

 

I think that may have a bit more to do with the situation, in addition to wasting snaps on Zack Moss. If I hear one more person say he's a power/physical back my head might explode.

[JMM]

As much as do want to run Josh less, I think on these downs your best chance to make the first down is have him keep it, either sneak over guard or run the RPO. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, 716er said:

When it comes to short yardage...

 

They struggle when they hand it to Moss.

 

They don't struggle when they hand it to Singletary.

 

 

 

Singletary converts at a 61.9% clip on runs 3rd/4th down and 3 or less out of 21 attempts.

 

Moss converts at a 60% clip, same criteria on 20 carries.  Virtually identical results. 

 

Your statement is demonstrably proven false.

 

 

 

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Singletary converts at a 61.9% clip on runs 3rd/4th down and 3 or less out of 21 attempts.

 

Moss converts at a 60% clip, same criteria.  Virtually identical results. 

 

Your statement is demonstrably proven false.

 

 

 

 

Moss:

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[716er]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Singletary converts at a 61.9% clip on runs 3rd/4th down and 3 or less out of 21 attempts.

 

Moss converts at a 60% clip, same criteria.  Virtually identical results. 

 

Your statement is demonstrably proven false.

 

 

 

 

Interesting.

 

What about on 3rd or 4th and 1 or less?

 

FYI I cannot see your image.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

Interesting.

 

What about on 3rd or 4th and 1 or less?

 

FYI I cannot see your image.

 

Moss, 13 carries, 1st down 53.8%

 

Singletary, 12 carries, 1st down 75%.

 

Singletary is BETTER at converting than Moss in those situations, but Moss still converts more than half the time.

 

I wonder if Moss has more "power" runs versus Singletary where they are more spread out, meaning it's easier to key on Moss and makes it more likely the D has bigger bodies in to stuff the run in close.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[716er]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Moss, 13 carries, 1st down 53.8%

 

Singletary, 12 carries, 1st down 75%.

 

Singletary is BETTER at converting than Moss in those situations, but Moss still converts more than half the time.

 

Thanks for checking that.

 

I think 22.2% is a significant difference and a big enough one where Devin should be getting a majority of the 3rd and 1 carries.

 

Cheers 

 

Okay one more question if you've got the time... what is the conversion rate on a 3rd and 1 or less on average for an NFL RB?

[BRH]

55 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

We spent 3 picks within the first 3 rounds in 3 years lol

 

those are 3 high picks

 

Facts are annoying, aren't they?

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, 716er said:

 

Thanks for checking that.

 

I think 22.2% is a significant difference and a big enough one where Devin should be getting a majority of the 3rd and 1 carries.

 

Cheers 

 

I think we need more context.  I don't remember seeing Singletary used in power sets with big personnel in very much which would give him a distinct advantage in those situations because our OLine is not good at power run blocking against heavy fronts.  But that begs the question...why do they continue using big on big personnel when they are not very good at it and why not just line up and spread them out then try and run?

 

Only thing I can think of is they have pass plays they run out of those heavy personnel sets that work really well(like Davis first TD versus the Rams) and they really like and if they only pass out of those formations it would become easier to defend since the D would know a pass was coming and they run to keep teams honest.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills should try Gilliam as a short yardage RB. If not, Singletary is the guy I’m handing the football to on this offense.

 

Ive been pounding the table to eliminate Moss from the offense for a couple years now. He’s not a good RB. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Royale with Cheese]

I actually think we should go 3-4 wide to spread out the defense.  It seems like for years we don't get push up front.  

Give Allen space and give him the option of throwing it.  

[Herc11]

They should stop with this nonsense that Moss is a power back. He might of been in college where guys are smaller, but in the NFL he isn't big or powerful enough to be utilized that way.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Herc11

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

It's still early in the season, but we did just face the best DT in the NFL last week in Aaron Donald and another top 10 one in Jeffrey Simmons.

 

I think that may have a bit more to do with the situation, in addition to wasting snaps on Zack Moss. If I hear one more person say he's a power/physical back my head might explode.

 

He is a physical back, but it doesn't matter when a DLineman is 3 yards deep in your backfield before he gets the handoff. Nobody is getting a first down in that situation. Our power run blocking isn't good and hasn't been good for a long time. Bills insist on using power when they should just let them run against a lighter box.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[Lost]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think we need more context.  I don't remember seeing Singletary used in power sets with big personnel in very much which would give him a distinct advantage in those situations because our OLine is not good at power run blocking against heavy fronts.  But that begs the question...why do they continue using big on big personnel when they are not very good at it and why not just line up and spread them out then try and run?

 

This ^^

 

Fun Fact.  Josh Allen has a 154.9 Pass rating on 3rd down this season.  

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Allen2Diggs said:

They keep lining up in a shotgun formation on short yardage for some reason. Just line up in an I formation with Gilliam and Singletary and either give it to Devin or have Josh sneak. They're just overthinking it.

 

Kelly led Bills used to be tremendous running out of the shotgun, these Bills teams not so much...play usually gets blown up in the backfield like last night when Singletary had a 5 yard loss.

 

Sometimes I think they just get bored and like challenging themselves by putting themselves in bad situations just to see if they can pick up the first down. Josh is like "OK, let's run a play we know likely isn't going to work and will lose yardage so I can see if I can still pick up the first down anyway."

Edited September 20, 2022 by Big Turk

[Herc11]

40 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

QB sneak the GD ball.  There is no excuse as to why this offense can’t execute a sneak with the biggest bad a$$ QB to ever play the game.  Don’t give me the bs o-line sux on short yardage crap, the biggest vag of a QB to ever play the game had no problem picking up the first or a TD on sneaks playing behind crappy olines.  Playing 3rd/4th and inches out of the shotgun is as dumb as it gets.  

They did have good O-lines. But IMO the reason Brady was so successful with those conversions wasn't necessary the line. Brady was always on top of that situation and they would get to the line immediately and quick snap while the defense was still scrambling to set up. He rarely allowed the defense enough time to get set correctly.

14 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He is a physical back, but it doesn't matter when a DLineman is 3 yards deep in your backfield before he gets the handoff. Nobody is getting a first down in that situation. Our power run blocking isn't good and hasn't been good for a long time. Bills insist on using power when they should just let them run against a lighter box.

He's only physical because he will lower his shoulder to try and run a defender over before trying to juke them. As I said before, this worked in college with smaller defenders. I can't recall a single run he has made in the NFL where he has run anyone over.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, UConn James said:

How about giving

Jordan Philips the carry

ala Refrigerator Perry?

 

Sorry, that haiku thread is getting to me.

 

That would be "ala Fridge Perry" to be 5 syllables! 

[Draconator]

33 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

in addition to wasting snaps on Zack Moss. If I hear one more person say he's a power/physical back my head might explode.

Zack Moss is a powerful, physical back. 

 

Now that your head has exploded, maybe you'll stop posting.

[CLTbills]

Well we scored a touchdown last week on 3rd and 1, and scored a touchdown this week on 4th and 1.