Trey Lance just carted off..

[Donuts and Doritos]

Broken ankle. Season over for Lance.

 

https://theathletic.com/3605380/2022/09/18/49ers-trey-lance-injury?source=user-shared-article

 

[MAJBobby]

No way Trey Glass I mean Lance hurt again?

Edited September 18, 2022 by MAJBobby

[HardyBoy]

57 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

So the point is that QBs in the pocket are suffering long term injuries at a rate of 2 to 1 to QBs on designed runs so far this season? Bold suggestion to never have Josh throw the ball in the pocket again, but here's to you for going out on a limb!

There have probably been something like 50x the number of drop backs compared to designed runs this season (random number, but directionally you get my point, and I’m probably too low).

[Malazan]

18 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

There have probably been something like 50x the number of drop backs compared to designed runs this season (random number, but directionally you get my point, and I’m probably too low).

 

The stats show that the percentage of injuries to QBs is higher in the pocket. So the whole "There's more dropbacks argument' doesn't hold water. Study after study shows this. 

[RunTheBall]

Jimmy G laughing all the way to the BANK. What a cluster F San Fran is. Trey Lance? Come on. Jimmy G is going to play himself into a MONSTER contract next year then absolutely revert to Joe Average Game Manager while counting his mega bucks. Good for him! 

[wppete]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

No way Trey Glass I mean Lance hurt again?

When was hurt before? I dont watch the 49ers

[major]

14 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Jimmy G laughing all the way to the BANK. What a cluster F San Fran is. Trey Lance? Come on. Jimmy G is going to play himself into a MONSTER contract next year then absolutely revert to Joe Average Game Manager while counting his mega bucks. Good for him! 

Jimmy G will probably lead the 49ers to the super bowl this year where they will meet and be defeated by our bills 

[Rat-boy]

14 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Jimmy G laughing all the way to the BANK. What a cluster F San Fran is. Trey Lance? Come on. Jimmy G is going to play himself into a MONSTER contract next year then absolutely revert to Joe Average Game Manager while counting his mega bucks. Good for him! 

Half the Bay Area pundits are falling over themselves to excoriate Shanahan for calling too many designed runs. This I find to be a lousy take, as mobility is part of his skill set and that’s part of the reason they liked him so much.

 

A sizable fraction of the rest are talking about how brilliant Lynch is to have kept Jimmy G, despite the fact that they couldn’t get him on the bus out of town fast enough last year to allow their new poster boy to start.
 

I guess a division win makes them quickly forget all their stupid takes about him being the reason they didn’t beat the Rams last year.

 

SF homers are so bloody spoiled.

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

More QBs get injured in pocket vs out. Most aren’t built like Josh Allen either. 

 

 

That couldn't be because they pass way more than they run, could it? I mean Allen has thrown 2030 passes in his career and 432 rushes. Of course most injuries take place there. It's where they spend the great majority of their time.

 

People keep saying that as if it was a good argument for restricting the amount of runs. It's not. Also, it's a mis-statement of what the studies have actually shown.

 

The question shouldn't be where more people are injured. It should be do people get injured at a higher percentage when they pass than when they run. And none of the studies has said that. It should further be does running a lot tend to lead to fewer healthy career years. That also has not been demonstrated, either way.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That couldn't be because they pass way more than they run, could it?

 

People keep saying that as if it was a good argument for restricting the amount of runs. It's not. Also, it's a mis-statement of what the studies have actually shown.

 

 

Could be. Or it could be that the hits taken while in the pocket have them in a more vulnerable position to absorb it. Anyway, it’s a pointless exercise for fans to complain about the amount of times the team calls on Allen to run. The coaches will do what they see as the best for the teams goals. Winning championships and having Josh Allen as their QB for a long time. Doesn’t matter if we think he should run more or run less. 

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Could be. Or it could be that the hits taken while in the pocket have them in a more vulnerable position to absorb it. Anyway, it’s a pointless exercise for fans to complain about the amount of times the team calls on Allen to run. The coaches will do what they see as the best for the teams goals. Winning championships and having Josh Allen as their QB for a long time. Doesn’t matter if we think he should run more or run less. 

 

 

Well, of course it's a pointless exercise because the coaches do what they want. 

 

Same with fans complaining about absolutely anything teams do. And yet people do complain and tell their opinions here. Some might say that's the whole point of being here.

 

And I don't see how anyone could say conclusively that a QB in the pocket is in a more vulnerable situation than a QB running, excepting of course QBs who slide. QBs running into contact as Josh often does are often facing collisions that are more opposing in direction.

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

 

The stats show that the percentage of injuries to QBs is higher in the pocket. So the whole "There's more dropbacks argument' doesn't hold water. Study after study shows this. 

 

I do not wish to get into an argument about this again but it is simply not true. 

 

The Verros study for QB injuries from 2016-2020 shows 274 injuries out of 98294 dropbacks (not including spikes) or 0.28% injury rate (these are numbers from the study).   For non-kneeldown designed runs, Verros gets 21 injuries out of 3264 plays, which is a 0.64% injury rate, so approximately twice the rate of designed passes.   It is not clear where to include scrambles but if you include it in dropbacks, that makes it 309 injuries out of 101,558 plays which would correspond to a 0.304% injury rate, still less than half the rate for designed runs.

 

So based on Verros study, on a per play basis, the probability of injury is twice as high for designed runs as for dropbacks.  Obviously, if one gets sacked the injury rate is higher but than compared to a run but that is not the valid comparision.  

 

Verros does note that there were about twice as many season ending injuries in dropbacks but on designed runs but that is, again, because there are many more dropbacks and also running QBs tend to be younger and recover faster.

 

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Well, of course it's a pointless exercise because the coaches do what they want. 

 

Same with fans complaining about absolutely anything teams do. And yet people do complain and tell their opinions here. Some might say that's the whole point of being here.

 

And I don't see how anyone could say conclusively that a QB in the pocket is in a more vulnerable situation than a QB running, excepting of course QBs who slide. QBs running into contact as Josh often does are often facing collisions that are more opposing in direction.

Nothing in the argument is conclusive on either side. Except for the amount of injuries and where they take place. That is indisputable as numbers are numbers. Josh often dishes out the punishment as well as takes it , no? Anyway, enjoy the boards! 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

 

The stats show that the percentage of injuries to QBs is higher in the pocket. So the whole "There's more dropbacks argument' doesn't hold water. Study after study shows this. 

 

 

 

Again, those studies do not show the impact of shortened careers. Looking at a career like RGIII's, those studies generally say that he only missed a few games to injury. Which really misrepresents the effects that the pounding he took over the years has had on him. (Granted, bad coaching may also have shortened his career, but he's 30 and out of football. 

 

Same with Cam. Just not very good after age 29.

 

Look at Vick. Stupidity in picking a hobby certainly had a major effect on him, but he had an excellent year at age 30 and was never the same after that.

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Nothing in the argument is conclusive on either side. Except for the amount of injuries and where they take place. That is indisputable as numbers are numbers. Josh often dishes out the punishment as well as takes it , no? Anyway, enjoy the boards! 

 

 

Again, the reason they take place more there is simply that they spend more time there, all of them do.

 

It's like arguing that between the goal line and the 10 yard line is really very safe because most football injuries don't take place there. True. But doesn't show what anyone making the argument thinks it does.

 

Indeed, happy hunting. See you around.

[Boatdrinks]

11 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I do not wish to get into an argument about this again but it is simply not true. 

 

The Verros study for QB injuries from 2016-2020 shows 274 injuries out of 98294 dropbacks (not including spikes) or 0.28% injury rate (these are numbers from the study).   For non-kneeldown designed runs, Verros gets 21 injuries out of 3264 plays, which is a 0.64% injury rate, so approximately twice the rate of designed passes.   It is not clear where to include scrambles but if you include it in dropbacks, that makes it 309 injuries out of 101,558 plays which would correspond to a 0.304% injury rate, still less than half the rate for designed runs.

 

So based on Verros study, on a per play basis, the probability of injury is twice as high for designed runs as for dropbacks.  Obviously, if one gets sacked the injury rate is higher but than compared to a run but that is not the valid comparision.  

 

Verros does note that there were about twice as many season ending injuries in dropbacks but on designed runs but that is, again, because there are many more dropbacks and also running QBs tend to be younger and recover faster.

 

 

 

Okay, cool thanks for the breakdown. So more risk on a designed run. Of course , the coaches know these #’s better than anyone. They do as they see fit and get paid a lot of money to do so. Personally I only had an issue with calling Josh runs with a big lead in the 4th quarter. A minor quibble but I trust they’ll make the right decisions going forward. 

[Warcodered]

 

[C.Biscuit97]

It sucks. He was looking good too. Excited after drafting him in all my leagues to depend on boring Cousins and Carr for the rest of the season. Boo!

[Doc Brown]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It sucks. He was looking good too. Excited after drafting him in all my leagues to depend on boring Cousins and Carr for the rest of the season. Boo!

He looked okay today but there's a reason they weren't comfortable trading Jimmy G to get out of his large contract when they drafted Lance.

[Bubba Gump]

49ers just got better. Trey Lance out for the year.

[machine gun kelly]

13 hours ago, wjag said:

I bet Jimmy G is regretting that pay cut now. 

No, because if he plays enough games, the $6 mil. Gets escalated to $16 mil., and JG gets to show his skills and he is healthy for the rest of the NFL.

 

He’s in a season interview for his next gig.  Lance just isn’t ready.  Anyone could see that and should’ve just let Jimmy G start and let Lance develop over the year.