Henry's Value

[MrLocke]

The more I think about it the more I think the Bills would have been incredibly lucky to get a 2nd round pick for Travis Hnery. Rudi Johnson was a 4th round pick, Domanick Davis was a 4th round pick. I think these players are about even as far as talent with Travis so why would teams give up a 2nd round pick for a player when they could get a player with equal talent in the fourth round? The only thing I am hopeful of at this point that a team will say now that the draft is far off some team will say getting the immeadiate help will be worth giving up a higher pick. There have been many good running backs selected in the third round as well, such as; Kevan Barlow (I know he did little last season), Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, Ahman Green and Chris Borwn etc. Thoughts?

[sfladave]

The more I think about it the more I think the Bills would have been incredibly lucky to get a 2nd round pick for Travis Hnery. Rudi Johnson was a 4th round pick, Domanick Davis was a 4th round pick. I think these players are about even as far as talent with Travis so why would teams give up a 2nd round pick for a player when they could get a player with equal talent in the fourth round? The only thing I am hopeful of at this point  that a team will say now that the draft is far off some team will say getting the immeadiate help will be worth giving up a higher pick. There have been many good running backs selected in the third round as well, such as; Kevan Barlow (I know he did little last season), Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, Ahman Green and Chris Borwn etc. Thoughts?

336642[/snapback]

 

I really don't know what Henry's value is, but I do know that the Fish gave up a 3rd for Lamar Gordon last year durring the beginning of the year and Gordon is not even close to Henry in capability or experience!

[MrLocke]

I really don't know what Henry's value is, but I do know that the Fish gave up a 3rd for Lamar Gordon last year durring the beginning of the year and Gordon is not even close to Henry in capability or experience!

336647[/snapback]

 

The Fish also gave up a second round pick for AJ Feeley.

[Ralonzo]

The more I think about it the more I think the Bills would have been incredibly lucky to get a 2nd round pick for Travis Hnery. Rudi Johnson was a 4th round pick, Domanick Davis was a 4th round pick. I think these players are about even as far as talent with Travis so why would teams give up a 2nd round pick for a player when they could get a player with equal talent in the fourth round? The only thing I am hopeful of at this point  that a team will say now that the draft is far off some team will say getting the immeadiate help will be worth giving up a higher pick. There have been many good running backs selected in the third round as well, such as; Kevan Barlow (I know he did little last season), Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, Ahman Green and Chris Borwn etc. Thoughts?

336642[/snapback]

 

Here's the logical fallacy: You are assigning value to 4th round picks based upon the picks that were smashing successes, and ignoring the (many) failures. If everyone knew they were going to get a player like that in the 4th round nobody would ever trade one of those picks, let alone something higher. For every Duce Staley there's a half-dozen Eddie Fullers.

 

Travis Henry is a proven commodity at the NFL level, having been a productive player for several years and even playing in a Pro Bowl. Any drafted rookie is a projection at best, and is unlikely to contribute immediately at a high level, even with the caveat that RB is one of the few positions where a rookie can make an impact (it's not a particularly cerebral position, although as TH has showed us, there are limits).

 

As for the teams passing on Henry, let's see what the Cards can really get out of Arrington, or what the Eagles get out of Moats, this year.

[MrLocke]

Here's the logical fallacy: You are assigning value to 4th round picks based upon the picks that were smashing successes, and ignoring the (many) failures. If everyone knew they were going to get a player like that in the 4th round nobody would ever trade one of those picks, let alone something higher. For every Duce Staley there's a half-dozen Eddie Fullers.

 

Travis Henry is a proven commodity at the NFL level, having been a productive player for several years and even playing in a Pro Bowl. Any drafted rookie is a projection at best, and is unlikely to contribute immediately at a high level, even with the caveat that RB is one of the few positions where a rookie can make an impact (it's not a particularly cerebral position, although as TH has showed us, there are limits).

 

As for the teams passing on Henry, let's see what the Cards can really get out of Arrington, or what the Eagles get out of Moats, this year.

336664[/snapback]

 

I know where you are coming from, but at the same time given that there has been so much success with running backs the last few years with 3rd round picks I would tend to think that GMs believe they can repeat that success. Stephen Davis was a 4th round pick. Priest Holmes wasn't not even draft, your point is well taken, though as Holmes and Davis did not come into their on for a few seaons.

[Bill from NYC]

Here's the logical fallacy: You are assigning value to 4th round picks based upon the picks that were smashing successes, and ignoring the (many) failures. If everyone knew they were going to get a player like that in the 4th round nobody would ever trade one of those picks, let alone something higher. For every Duce Staley there's a half-dozen Eddie Fullers.

 

Travis Henry is a proven commodity at the NFL level, having been a productive player for several years and even playing in a Pro Bowl. Any drafted rookie is a projection at best, and is unlikely to contribute immediately at a high level, even with the caveat that RB is one of the few positions where a rookie can make an impact (it's not a particularly cerebral position, although as TH has showed us, there are limits).

 

As for the teams passing on Henry, let's see what the Cards can really get out of Arrington, or what the Eagles get out of Moats, this year.

336664[/snapback]

 

Sorry, I disagree. If Travis was worth even a 4th round pick in a weak draft no less, he would be off the team.

He has proven that he can compile yardage, but he is also a proven failure at every other phase of his position, with personality and off field issues to boot.

Remember, his agent was given permission to seek a trade, and that Travis wants out of Buffalo. Not one team was willing to come forward with a decent offer, or so it seems.

In my respectful opinion, you are kidding yourself to think that Travis is a highly sought after commodity.

He is a marginal player who will likely be cut before the season.

[Albany,n.y.]

I doubt that we'll cut him. Assuming that he isn't traded before camp, if he reports, then we'll wait for another team to need a RB & trade him. If he doesn't report, then we'll just put him on did not report & not pay him until he does. There's no reason for the team to let him get his way & cut him. If he doesn't report he's only hurting himself, & TD will make sure he understands that, rather than cutting him.

[Bill from NYC]

I doubt that we'll cut him.  Assuming that he isn't traded before camp, if he reports, then we'll wait for another team needs a RB & trade him.  If he doesn't report, then we'll just put him on did not report & not pay him until he does.  There's no reason for the team to let him get his way & cut him.  If he doesn't report he's only hurting himself, & TD will make sure he understands that, rather than cutting him.

336689[/snapback]

 

You make sense, but there are other angles.

 

Imo, TD cannot afford to keep a chronic malcontent, nor can he afford to take an offer that he may deem "insulting" ( a 6th or 7th round pick perhaps) from an opposing GM. These guys compete with each other, and TD cannot afford to appear weak. I think that he would rather let him go and gain the cap space than to hand deliver him to another GM for a cheap price.

 

Additionally, the cap room may be needed if a Bills player sustains an injury.

 

In any event, I cannot imagine any scenario in which Travis is a Bill in 05.

Jmo.

[Frez]

Travis Henry is a pro bowl RB.........................period!

[Bill from NYC]

Travis Henry is a pro bowl RB.........................period!

336710[/snapback]

 

Be serious. He has a cheap price tag and nobody made TD nor his agent a decent offer in a trade.

Do you think this to be coincidence?

[Frez]

Be serious. He has a cheap price tag and nobody made TD nor his agent a decent offer in a trade.

Do you think this to be coincidence?

336715[/snapback]

 

 

Is it a coincidence that TD told them to stick it in their asses?

[Bill from NYC]

Is it a coincidence that TD told them to stick it in their asses?

336718[/snapback]

 

Good question!

No, I dont think so. Imo, TD would rather release him than to look weak to his peers and give him away for a 6th or 7th round pick.

These GMs are in a tough and ongoing competition, and nobody wants to be the one to blink, or so I see it.

[TDRupp]

Good question!

No, I dont think so. Imo, TD would rather release him than to look weak to his peers and give him away for a 6th or 7th round pick.

These GMs are in a tough and ongoing competition, and nobody wants to be the one to blink, or so I see it.

336745[/snapback]

 

I have to disagree that TD would rather release him than take a 5th rounder (or 6th or 7th) for him. I believe TD will either trade him or keep him for at least part of this year if not the entire year. If henry does not play and wants to sit, I don't think that will force a release, IMHO.

[MrLocke]

I do think TD would rather cut him than get a low round pick and I have evidence for this. I think he was offered a low round pick by perhaps Carolina for Antowain Smith and he passed on it and cut him.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Trade value obvious begins with an assessment of what a player MAY do for you and thus how good do you think he can be.

 

However, though things start with this factor, the factor that determines the absolute trade va;ue for a player is simply supply and demand.

 

Did the Fins trade a 3rd for Jordan because they judged his absolute talent level as being the equivalent of a 3rd round talent (whatever that means?) NO.

 

The team made a judgment that given their extreme demand and need for an RB after Wickey up and left they gave up what they thought they had to give up based on what potential trade partners wanted for the supply of backs out there/

 

The Bills got a 1st rounder for Price because AT owner foolishly set the market price high for Price specifically by guranteeing to his customers and most important to Michael Vick that his team was going do what was necessary to get the best WR threat for Vick. TD unexpectedly tagged PP and had enough of a good relationship with PP that he got him to stick a cork in negative things he initially said when he was tagged and TD took Blank to the cleaners.

 

TD has done a fantastic job with Henry in my book to date,

 

1, He fostered and allowed a situation where Henry and his agent did the work for him of assessing and finding market interest. This not only saved TD time, but also saced him from contacting folks hat in hand to make a deal and to allow potential trade partners to make the first offer.

 

2. He has consistently said he would love to have TH back. If he ragged on TH it would lower his trade value and he also creates the potential that he will walk away from any offer he considers insufficient.

 

3. I also really doubt that TH will be a Bill in 2005, but having an inability to see any scenario where this could happen merely means that the person doing the seeing is pretty short-sighted. In the end, TD has recognized that because TH is under contract and if in fact no team is interested in him, TH really has no choice but to play and play hard for the Bills as a back-up unless he wants to pull a Wickey Williams and go pout.

 

Even the concept that Henry will attempt to play 6 games and qualify for FA would hurt his value so much that he would be pretty unlikely to get the big buck contract he wants after:

 

A. A second straight unproductive year on the field.

B. Have decided not to watch his teaammates back in being @2 for WM and blown off team leader Moulds wish that he honor his contract and come to camp.

C. A team is going to sign a player who demonstrated he can beat his GM contractually.

D. Sets the Bills up to lauch a whispering campaign about the seriousness of TH's past injuries which would greatly lower his ability to get the deal he wants.

 

Sitting out likely results in him remaining Bills property anyway and destroys his value if he gets free.

 

The prescence of 3 RBs judged high first round talents created a supply of RBs which undercut the ability of the Bills to trade him. However, as ex season begins, the Bills are one injury away or one potential RB showing he can produce away from suddenly there being a very good market for Henry.

 

I think it is simply WRONG to insist that TH is such and such a quality of RB and that means he is worth a specific draft choice. The trade value of Henry changes not only from draft to draft (a 2nd round choice in 2004 is worth a lot more generally than a 2nd round choice in 2005) but within am inidividual draft. In the last draft when 3 RBs went in the top 10 picks his valie went up. However, as RB Arrington remained on the board his trade value went down and once AZ picked an RB it suddenly became a buyer's market and his trade value plummeted to a low round pick.

 

The things which still work in favor of TD getting the value he wants for Henryare:

 

1. As a former Pro Bowl player who put up over 1300 yards rushing two seasons in a row, caught over 40 passes one season and has improved his fumbling issue, and most important can be medically examined by any potential partner, Henry meets the low threshold that he is seriously considered potemtial trade bait and supply and demand will determine ultimately trade value,

 

2. Cap wise he is far more attractive than the other forner Pro Bowl RBs available as James and Alexander are better RBs but would command salaries this year in the top 10 and few teams can do this.

 

3. The occurence of injury to a man visualized as starting RB for a team (ex. Fred Taylor) or non-peformance will be the biggest factors determinging demand for Henry.

 

Saying he is a good or a bad RB is legit, but claiming he has some virtually immutable value reflected in a draft round is simply wrong.