Weather for Monday Night Game

[jimmy10]

9 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

No.  None.

Quick, someone start five threads about it. 

[nucci]

2 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

I did this for last years games and my forecast worked out quite well. Early call looks good for the Monday Night game. Looks perfect! ☀️

 

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

not going to be partly sunny at 830pm

Edited September 13, 2022 by nucci

[Jauronimo]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

not going to be partly sunny at 830pm

7:15 EST kickoff.  But yes, it still wont be sunny.

[HOUSE]

68 degrees and some darkness by gametime 

[TheWeatherMan]

2 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

I did this for last years games and my forecast worked out quite well. Early call looks good for the Monday Night game. Looks perfect! ☀️

 

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

Hate to bust your bubble, but going to a weather website (NOAA, Windy, Weather.com) and regurgitating their 5 day is not forecasting and neither is “partly sunny with a high near 77”.  Everyone’s a meteorologist now a day. 
 

All jokes aside, the outlook does look promising but it’s too far out to instill any confidence in the models.  After 48-72 hours accuracy drops off significantly.

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, MPL said:

Good lord. I read this title and just assumed it meant the forecast was calling for 150 mph winds or something.  

Well really what was the last good weather game the Bills have had at home? It’s been a very long time 

[Just Jack]

1 hour ago, fasteddie said:

You're not kidding there. I don't remember one great weather day. Rain gear was packed every day.

 

Back when we could bring bags into the stadium, I had a small duffel I would bring in every game.  I could go from 70 and sunny to 10 and snowy with what I carried in there. 

[nucci]

56 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

7:15 EST kickoff.  But yes, it still wont be sunny.

oops

[Awwufelloff]

33 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Hate to bust your bubble, but going to a weather website (NOAA, Windy, Weather.com) and regurgitating their 5 day is not forecasting and neither is “partly sunny with a high near 77”.  Everyone’s a meteorologist now a day. 
 

All jokes aside, the outlook does look promising but it’s too far out to instill any confidence in the models.  After 48-72 hours accuracy drops off significantly.

 

Are you a weatherman? I nearly went to school for it and have over 20k posts on weather forums that feature professional meteorologist interpreting models and posting daily. Also run a youtube channel stormchasing with 700 subs. It's by far my most knowledgable subject and biggest passion. 

GFS- Chance for showers at end of day

EURO- clear skies

GEM- chance for showers at end of day

The other short term models only go out 84 hours so they're not useful yet. 

 

As mentioned in the KBUF NWS forecast discussion its very up in the air right now, but as of the first post it doesn't look terrible. 

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

7:15 EST kickoff.  But yes, it still wont be sunny.

sunset is 7:18 on Monday. Technically the sun will still be out. 😜

Edited September 13, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Heitz]

1 hour ago, chris heff said:

They should build a dome, then we wouldn’t have to worry about weather. Has there been any discussion of this?

 

Of course, that's just for the 3 hours we're in the stadium, what about the 20 hours outside? 🤣

 

And for those saying not to look at the forecast just look at the weather, doesn't work when you're coming on Friday and your back-up clothing will be 8 hours away!  At least we're just packing for sun and maybe rain, no snow added into that mix (yet).  

 

[TheWeatherMan]

1 minute ago, Awwufelloff said:

 

Are you a weatherman? I nearly went to school for it and have over 20k posts on weather forums that feature professional meteorologist interpreting models and posting daily. 

GFS- Chance for showers at end of day

EURO- clear skies

GEM- chance for showers at end of day

The other short term models only go out 84 hours so they're not useful yet. 

 

As mentioned in the KBUF NWS forecast discussion its very up in the air right now, but as of the first post it doesn't look terrible. 

Yes.  Models are only as good as the forecaster interpreting and adjusting them.  There’s a reason why all 3 of those models have a different solution.  They are all way different and they are global models not regional which means generally a lower resolution.  The UKMO is a gridded model as opposed to a spectral which has its benefits but is awful for long range forecasting (hence clear skies).  Recomendado you take a look at the ensembles on the NOAA’s / NCEP webpage or hit up windy and take a look at the ECWMF which is the gold standard for global models.  

[Awwufelloff]

3 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Yes.  Models are only as good as the forecaster interpreting and adjusting them.  There’s a reason why all 3 of those models have a different solution.  They are all way different and they are global models not regional which means generally a lower resolution.  The UKMO is a gridded model as opposed to a spectral which has its benefits but is awful for long range forecasting (hence clear skies).  Recomendado you take a look at the ensembles on the NOAA’s / NCEP webpage or hit up windy and take a look at the ECWMF which is the gold standard for global models.  

Ensembles really don't print out QPF output though. I mean they do but its very broad brushed. Something as mesoscale as pop up storms/showers its tough to use them. I use ENS all the time for long range temp output and large scale changes in the atmosphere. Once we get to the weekend we can start using the higher res guidance which will certainly give us a better forecast. 

 

What is the UKMO? Not really familiar with that one. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[LittleSammy]

Bring back the old days of John Hambleton on Channel 10 in Rochester drawing his forecasts with a marker on the weather board. He was just, if not more, accurate  than these modern guys and their weather "models".

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Ensembles really don't print out QPF output though. I mean they do but its very broad brushed. Something as mesoscale as pop up storms/showers its tough to use them. I use ENS all the time for long range temp output and large scale changes in the atmosphere.

me too, I love that thing man.

[f0neguy]

Go to the Dollar Store, buy a throw away poncho, stuff it in your pocket, enjoy the game, no problem.  (You’re welcome)

[TheWeatherMan]

20 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Ensembles really don't print out QPF output though. I mean they do but its very broad brushed. Something as mesoscale as pop up storms/showers its tough to use them. I use ENS all the time for long range temp output and large scale changes in the atmosphere. Once we get to the weekend we can start using the higher res guidance which will certainly give us a better forecast. 

 

What is the UKMO? Not really familiar with that one. 

Ensemble’s don’t because they are probabilistic not deterministic, which is why they are so accurate as they account for a chaotic environment.  They are exceptional at picking up on mesoscale features such as pulse (pop up) or air mass convection.  Look up the NOAA HRRR, it’s amazing.  
 

The UKMO is the UK Model.  

[nucci]

I'll just check the weather channel on Sunday

[716er]

15 and snow

[Metal Man]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Well really what was the last good weather game the Bills have had at home? It’s been a very long time 

 

2 hours ago, fasteddie said:

You're not kidding there. I don't remember one great weather day. Rain gear was packed every day.

 

The Washington Game last year was a pretty nice day IIRC. 

 

Not that 1 of 10 is anything to brag about. 😁

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, Metal Man said:

 

 

The Washington Game last year was a pretty nice day IIRC. 

 

Not that 1 of 10 is anything to brag about. 😁

yep.  The home opener against the Steelers and the Washington game were both overcast but nice temps IIRC (and a tiny bit windy but nothing game-changing).

 

The next 8 home games after that, the weather ranges from “could be a lot better “ to “apocalyptic”.