At this point, anybody scare you?

[billsfan1959]

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Overall DVOA

 

 

 

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Offensive DVOA

 

 

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Defensive DVOA

 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by billsfan1959

[May Day 10]

Pretty much everyone scares me.  The Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Colts games prove that, as does 2 season-ending losses to Kansas City in the past 2 years...

 

With that said, I would take the Bills over anyone right now, probably home or away.  I really do think we have a potential top 1-3 defense as well as a top 1-3 offense, which could put this team in pretty historic company if they can take care of business this season.  

[JoPoy88]

After week 1? Put it this way - I wouldn’t bet on any team to beat them right now. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Overall DVOA

 

 

 

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Offensive DVOA

 

 

Football Outsiders Top 20 Team Defensive DVOA

 

 

 

Thanks for posting these - just as a quick caveat - Football Outsiders themselves do say to take with a pinch of salt until week 6 normally. Just because obviously DVOA is based on how you perform against an opponent compared to how others perform against that same opponent. So the more info you build up the more accurate the model. 

[billsfan1959]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Thanks for posting these - just as a quick caveat - Football Outsiders themselves do say to take with a pinch of salt until week 6 normally. Just because obviously DVOA is based on how you perform against an opponent compared to how others perform against that same opponent. So the more info you build up the more accurate the model. 

Thanks. I was actually going to add that caveat with it. DAVE represents the games up to that point along with pre-season predictions up until about weeks 4-6. I’ll post them each week.

[Nelius]

Cincy still scares me. I think Buffalo is far better and hey, we lost to Pittsburgh Week 1 last year too. They just have too many weapons on paper and Joe Mixon is probably the most underrated back in the league. I think they'll pull it together and make a run at some point.

 

And then the usual suspects out West - KC, Vegas, San Diego. AFC West is going to be a meat grinder. Not Denver though. Glad the Broncos hype finally subsided, I've been calling that since last year. Russ is not a top tier QB any more and considering the division I wouldn't be surprised if the Donkeys are bottom-5 in the AFC by year's end. 

[mjd1001]

Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens (in that order) in the AFC

 

Tampa in the NFC.  I'm 'amost' over Arizona because they simply haven't been that good, but the back part of my mind always think if the do 'figure things out' they could be trouble.

 

[YoloinOhio]

On 9/12/2022 at 9:26 AM, Matt_In_NH said:

I would not write them off but what about the Dolphins is scary?  They scored 13 points on offense....they have a lot of speed and their Defense is good but scary?

This is pretty scary 🤮

 

 

[LabattBlue]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

DVOA Top Five and SB Odds after Weeek 1

 

 

This is a good reality check for those who thing a SB Championship is a given.  Even though they are the favorite, there is still less than a 20% chance they win it all.  So many  variables during the season and playoffs…injuries, officiating, coaching, player miscues.  All it takes is one hiccup in a close game and…

[billsfan1959]

22 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

This is a good reality check for those who thing a SB Championship is a given.  Even though they are the favorite, there is still less than a 20% chance they win it all.  So many  variables during the season and playoffs…injuries, officiating, coaching, player miscues.  All it takes is one hiccup in a close game and…

 

That's why they play the games, right? I (along with almost everyone else) thought Buffalo and KC were the two best teams heading into the Divisional game, with the winner going on and winning the SB. Buff had its 13 second meltdown and the following week, KC had its 2nd half meltdown...

 

And just like that, the two best teams in football are out of the playoffs.

 

You just never know

[dollars 2 donuts]

Chiefs and Chargers

 

Hey side note, and maybe semi related, but remember that time the Dolphins had the opportunity to take what would now be considered one of the top 3 or 4 QBs in the league and we were all hoping they wouldn't take him and then all of sudden they DIDN'T take him?!

 

 

Remember?!

 

 

...good times.  

 

 

 

Edited September 14, 2022 by dollars 2 donuts