Allen's frequent running

[Billy Claude]

15 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

I've already provided multiple links in this thread. You've already made mistakes on quoting said data as it is 'per play' not totals. I'm not sure wasting more of my time on providing easily findable data points is worthwhile. 

 

Why don't you provide some sources of data to back up your claims?

 

The only source I am using is your data so you have already provided the data to back up my claims and, yes, you provided both totals and per play.

 

The only thing I added was that 6.3% of the drop backs last year ended in sacks to estimate the total number of dropbacks during the range of the data you provided.  This can be looked up anywhere.  Unless you want me to go through the math, there is nothing extra for me to provide.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Billy Claude

[Malazan]

2 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

The only source I am using is your data so you have already provided the data to back up my claims.

 

Except the data does not back up your claims... you took very specific parts of the whole thing. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Malazan

[Búfalo Blanco]

I was at the game, and in the 4th quarter began yelling more and more for Allen to stop with the unneeded running. Why continue that, with the game in hand? Another Bills fan started arguing with me that that was a “weak mentality”. 
 

No, it isn’t. It’s smart. This isn’t the ThunderDome. Sure, let Allen be Allen when the game is on the line. But reign in your prized possession when the game is in hand. Play it smart with your roster and minimize risk when you’re that far ahead. Period. 

[Billy Claude]

20 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

Except the data does not back up your claims... you took very specific parts of the whole thing. 

 

 

How does the data not back up the claims?

 

You said there were 90 injuries out of 5135 sacks -- since sacks are 6.3% of passing plays that corresponds to about 82,000 passing plays.  You give  a total of 90 (sacks) + 52 (knockdowns) + 23 (scrambles) = 165 injuries in that time span.  So 165 out of the 82,000 passing plays resulted in a injury.  This means 2 injuries out of every 1000 passing plays or 0.2%.   You quoted injuries at 0.6% per running play so that says, per play, one is three times as likely to be injured on a designed run than a designed pass.

 

It is very straightforward math.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Billy Claude

[Billsatlastin2018]

“But he's running too much.  It can't be stated more simply than that.  The Bills can have a long run with JA at QB, but only if he's on the field.  He's such a good passer - I was really hoping the new OC would change our usage of Allen somewhat, and cut down on designed runs and putting him in the thick of things up the middle.”

THIS…^^^^
 

Surely, we all do!

 

Those of us who’ve been around can remember that First Round Draft Pick Qb clown cutdown on the sideline- instead of stepping out. He was never again better, although some would say, he was never any good- anyway.

 

Allen is not him! 
He is one of the few faces of the NFL! 
He has creepy weird ALL TIME STATS for both Passing & Running in the Regular Season AND Playoffs.

After this great year, he will be close to the Top 100 All Time in Passing Yards & TDs!

When the Bills win the SB, he should be in the Top 25 ALL TIME TD Passes & Yards!

Rushing? NO QB will be higher.

 

But, these multiple designed Runs will not allow it- notwithstanding that he believes he’s a LB! He’s going to get knee tagged by multiple players.

 

To get max use out of that generation alarm, 5 runs max per game. And NEVER, EVER in 31-10 lockdown, clock run out time. 
 

That was foolish, beyond belief.

 

 

[pigpen65]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Why are people acting like they were calling run plays left and right for Allen when they were up 3 TDs?

 

Allen literally ran one time when they were up by 3 TDs. It wasn't a designed run and it wasn't even an RPO. He rolled out to his left to pass the ball. The linebacker came up and drove Morse back into Allen. Allen saw a wide open lane, took it, and ran for 13 yards, and was tackled from behind as he started to go down to avoid defenders coming at him. He didn't even take a hard hit.

 

He handed the ball off the next two plays and then Moss fumbled.

 

That is it. Not one called run play after going up by 3 TDs.

 

Nobody would bring it up if he'd run out of bounds or slid. People are bringing it up because he took a hit. And it's ridiculous time in a game for a quarterback to be taking an

 unnecessary hit 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This seems to be a strange play on which to base your argument about avoiding contact. On the sack by Darnold, he just went by Bates on a straight line to Allen. Allen saw Darnold bearing down on him and had 3 choices (and about .7 seconds to make a choice): (1) Just drop to the ground (which I'm not sure he could have before getting hit), (2) stand there and take the full hit from Darnold, or (3) wrap the ball up with two hands, try to evade a full hit, put his head down, and try to move forward for a few yards. He made the 3rd choice and ended up with a 1 yard sack instead of a 6 yard sack. That left them with a 3rd and 4 instead of a 3rd and 9 at their own 10 yard line. The hit by Darnold ended up being no more violent than any other hits he has taken on sacks - and probably less violent than if Allen didn't try to evade it.

 

I'm all in favor of Allen not taking unnecessary hits and being smart with how and when he runs, but, in that particular situation, I think he did the right thing.

 

 

Correct

 

 

It wasn't the play that I chose to base my argument about avoiding contact on.    I simply noted it was part of a beating he took in that game and someone else tried to use that as proof that there is no way possible for him to avoid a ton of violent hits every game.

 

But there is a way..........other QB's do it.

 

There were numerous examples of plays  in the Rams game where he ran the ball and was taken down hard/awkwardly.    I don't think he had a single slide or soft landing on any of his 10 runs.   Overall probably the most hard mileage he's ever put on without getting concussed in any game in his career.   It's lost in the celebration but it's notable that nothing was easy for him on the ground......every run was violently contested.    Even the stiff arm run he ended up landing hard.   

[EffKCChiefs]

You gotta let the man run, it's his kryptonite and it gets our team so fired up. Especially now when he's young. As he gets older and running skills deminish I have no doubt in my mind he can just stand in the pocket like Brady and deliver the ball. 

[Malazan]

52 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

How does the data not back up the claims?

 

You said there were 90 injuries out of 5135 sacks -- since sacks are 6.3% of passing plays that corresponds to about 82,000 passing plays.  You give  a total of 90 (sacks) + 52 (knockdowns) + 23 (scrambles) = 165 injuries in that time span.  So 165 out of the 82,000 passing plays resulted in a injury.  This means 2 injuries out of every 1000 passing plays or 0.2%.   You quoted injuries at 0.6% per running play so that says, per play, one is three times as likely to be injured on a designed run than a designed pass.

 

It is very straightforward math.

 

 

Ahh, you didn't read the study I presented. Thank you for finally saying so. 

[Billy Claude]

13 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

Ahh, you didn't read the study I presented. Thank you for finally saying so. 

 

Yes,  I did read the study you presented and I am accepting the data they present as true.  I simply disagree with some of the conclusions and I have explained why.

 

Yes, a sacks and knockdowns definitely more dangerous than a designed run.   However, no offensive coordinator designs a play to get their quarterback sacked or knockdown.  To compare the injuries per sack to injuries per designed run is unreasonab;le.

 

If I misunderstood the study please tell me how.

 

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Billy Claude