Last night was a dominant win. But there was one obvious weak link holding us back... Zach Moss (lead the team in touches)

[buffblue]

2 hours ago, Saint Doug said:

I wonder why Motor wasn’t being given those touches. Were they showcasing Moss?

I don't know, but it's beyond obvious our offense operates at a different level when Singletary is the primary guy in the backfield. He's better than Moss by a large margin.

[Success]

I actually thought Moss looked alright. He didn't have a lot of blocking on some of those plays.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, buffblue said:

I don't know, but it's beyond obvious our offense operates at a different level when Singletary is the primary guy in the backfield. He's better than Moss by a large margin.

 

Fair - he got the majority of snaps by a decent margin.  We just pass a ton.  For this reason or another, when moss was on the field for pass snaps they tended to end up as check downs to him.  Motor had a called screen, and i don't believe moss did. 

4 minutes ago, Success said:

I actually thought Moss looked alright. He didn't have a lot of blocking on some of those plays.

 

 

Fumble is annoying, but people fumble.  If I'm the coach I'm on his ass this week about it, and drive home focus and composure in big moments.  I'm also not gonna crucify a guy for a fumble.  Allen averages about 10 fumbles a year.  Hell Motor has 10 recorded fumbles in his NFL career as well.  I don't mind benching a back when he fumbles either, just don't bury a guy for a season when you will need them down the line.  

[Dablitzkrieg]

I honestly thought Moss played physical and looked better last night outside of the fumble.    I thought all of the RBs ran hard into contact.   Obviously his vision is the issue here.   Always has been, but feel we found our new whipping boy

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I don't want to call you an idiot.  Let's say you're writing like a person without much understanding of what you see in the chess match of football.

 

Moss didn't lead the team in touches because the game plan called his number on a team-leading number of plays.  The Rams were playing to take away the deep and intermediate stuff and betting that the same Josh Allen who got throttled by Pittsburgh using that strategy last season opener (and embarrassingly, by Jax), would get throttled the same way or force the throw and get picked (that happened). 

 

Moss led the team in touches because he, like Singletary, was the check-down option in the passing game on a night when Josh needed to get the ball out quick in the face of pressure.  Moss had 2 more touches than Motor, so it's not as though he was being given a ton more, they were dividing the load between the two backs.  And probably it would have been more Cook and less Moss in that role except they needed the best chipping and blocking from the RBs and also, Cook fumbled.

 

Go look at some of the stuff quoted from Jalen Ramsey.  "I feel like we kind of had a mentality like, 'bend, don't break' a lot, because they were driving the ball but they weren't scoring, like, we were getting turnovers, interceptions, whatever it was."  That was their strategy, give up the short stuff, wager that Josh won't take it, and capitalize on mistakes.

 

Instead, Allen showed that now, this year, he was willing to dink and dunk and take the checkdown.  This is a HUGE step forward in Josh's game.  Collinsworth correctly commented that earlier in his career, Josh wouldn't have done that.  I was literally jumping up and down and screaming because it's been the "missing piece" in his passing game.  You wanna send everyone on a jailbreak?  *Flick* get it out and at least get back to the LOS.  Get 1 yd, 2 yds, 7 yds, 8 yds.  Average 3.5 yds per reception.

 

It moved the chains.   10 plays, 11 plays, 15 plays.  Then when LA figured out that strategy of letting the Bills grind down the field was working against their need for points, they decided to send the house (cover 0) and Josh burned them like a blowtorch, right down the middle of the field to Davis. 

 

The only problem was Moss fumbling.  He can't do that.  Ditto Cook.  Muscle Hamster has to tuck it away and not double-catch it if he wants to be The Man in the slot.  And I need to watch to see what happened with Crowder.  My first impression was Josh shouldn't have thrown that one, but Crowder could have come back towards the ball and boxed out the defender.  I think that's a familiarity with Josh thing, the QB's he's played with would throw an arc you can't come back for instead of a dart.

 

The 4 turnovers were the problem, not Moss getting lots of options because he was the checkdown option in the passing game against the league's best defender, causing Josh to need to get the ball out quick. 

 

I personally would like to see MORE touches for Moss and Singletary and fewer designed runs for Josh.  Josh may love it and laugh as he's hit (Singletary said he was) but I don't want to see another season where Josh Allen is the best RB on the Bills.

 

 

 

At first, I was thinking the OP was on to something.  It was like I thought I saw completely dominant, yet not flawless, offensive execution against a team at the very least in the upper echelon of the NFL.  
 

But after reading the concerns about touches, I thought “Wow, I never thought of it like that, the whole touches thing.”.
 

Then, I read your reply and I was like “Wow, I think I was right the first time and wrong the second.”. 

In the end, after decades of angst and frustration following the Bills, having this particular concern on this particular day is pretty freakin awesome. 
 

 

[Beck Water]

36 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

On the INT he had time, and no one was there... except knox in the flats. 

 

You mean the 2nd INT, targeting Crowder?  (on nfl.com they don't have that play in the play by play - I forget, what was down and distance?)

 

I gotta say, Crowder looked open, the DB turned on the jets and made a good play.  I do think Bease steps up so it's "his ball or no one's ball".

Edited September 9, 2022 by Beck Water

[BFLO]

14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Rams, in fact, didn't beat the Bills by leaving the checkdown to Moss open all game.  The Bills did not punt 1 time.  The only thing stopping the Bills offense last night was.....mistakes by the Bills offense. 

 

One of which, to be fair, was on Moss

 

The Steelers and Jags actually did beat the Bills by leaving the checkdown open all game - because Josh Allen refused to use it immediately, when the checkdown outlet has time and space to actually gain 6 or 8 yards, or at least make it back to the LOS

 

Do some math.  6 catches for 21 yds is 3.5 yds per reception.  That moves the chains.

 

I mean this in a kind way, but you really need to learn some football beyond looking at stats.

Moss fails the eye test. The stats back up the failed eye test. 

 

Of running backs last season who totaled 10 or more targets on the season, 3.5 yards per reception would rank 78th out of 79. 

 

Do you want the 78th worst ypc running back in the league getting most of our check-down volume?

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

At first, I was thinking the OP was on to something.  It was like I thought I saw completely dominant, yet not flawless, offensive execution against a team at the very least in the upper echelon of the NFL. 

 

The offense was far from flawless, but using Moss too much was so far down the list of the flaws, IMO you honestly need a telescope to see it.

 

The Bills converted 9 out of 10 3rd downs. 

1st half

1st drive (TD) they only had 1 3rd down, and it was 3rd and 1.

2nd drive (INT) they had 1 3rd and 4, after a good Singletary run and a sack.

3rd drive (FG) they had 3rd and 2 (converted), 3rd and 4 (failed).  The 3rd and 4 was after 2 Zack Moss pass receptions of 2 and 4 yds.  But 3rd and 4 should be manageable.

4th drive (INT) no touches by Moss, 2 yd run by Singletary, Allen sack 3rd and 12, Rams penalty 3rd and 7 (converted to Diggs), then INT on 1st and 10.

2nd half

1st drive (TD) no touches by Moss, 3rd and 2 after an Allen run becomes 3rd and 7 (Saffold false start), Allen scrambles to convert.

2nd drive (TD) 2nd and 9 became 3rd and 5 after a Moss reception for 4 yds, converted

3rd drive (TD) 3rd and 4 completion to Diggs, TD

4th drive (fumble) Zach Moss fumbles

 

There's only one series where you can possibly argue minimal gains by Moss on pass receptions led to a truncated drive, and a FG instead of a TD.  But 3rd and 4 really should be manageable.

 

The fumble had a negative impact on sustaining the Bills drives and scoring.  That's a fair "ding" on Moss.   Other than that, Moss's touches either had no impact or positive impact on the game, and that's all you can ask.

 

The weak link holding the Bills back in general were two INTs and two Fumbles.

 

They gotta fix that chit fast or they can't sustain wins.

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Beck Water

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

28 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You mean the 2nd INT, targeting Crowder?  (on nfl.com they don't have that play in the play by play - I forget, what was down and distance?)

 

I gotta say, Crowder looked open, the DB turned on the jets and made a good play.  I do think Bease steps up so it's "his ball or no one's ball".

 

Crowder sat on his route for some reason (probably play design?) but if he kept running and allen floated it in there it's a big gainer.  In any case - DB was there and he forced.  

[Beck Water]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Crowder sat on his route for some reason (probably play design?) but if he kept running and allen floated it in there it's a big gainer.  In any case - DB was there and he forced.  

 

I found it on pro-football-reference box score.  It was 1st and 10.  Allen should have lived to throw another down.  He got greedy there - it was a good reminder that against the best players playing full speed, he can't always sling it in there.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, BFLO said:

Moss fails the eye test. The stats back up the failed eye test. 

 

Of running backs last season who totaled 10 or more targets on the season, 3.5 yards per reception would rank 78th out of 79. 

 

Do you want the 78th worst ypc running back in the league getting most of our check-down volume?

 

It's one game.  He played less than singletary, and if cook doesn't fumble he probably plays less than he even did.  

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I found it on pro-football-reference box score.  It was 1st and 10.  Allen should have lived to throw another down.  He got greedy there - it was a good reminder that against the best players playing full speed, he can't always sling it in there.

 

Knox leaked out in the flat and had space with only a LB in coverage.  Probably not a major gain but keeps the drive rolling there.  

[Beck Water]

59 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The holes were not there as much for Moss.  But its a fair point...was Singletary injured or something?   The 4th quarter runs by Josh are more concerning.

 

The fair question to be asked is, are the holes not there for Moss because he's too slow in hitting them or lacks the vision to take best advantage?

Hopefully Cover1 or someone will look at this on all-22.

 

I agree on the 4th quarter runs. 

We're up by 21 points in the 4th and Allen is scrambling and getting tackled going for more yards on 1st and 10.  That's ridiculous. 

I was screaming at the TV, GTFD Josh!

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

Knox leaked out in the flat and had space with only a LB in coverage.  Probably not a major gain but keeps the drive rolling there.  

 

So hopefully Josh will see that and make that choice next time.  Though I gotta say, Knox can try too hard to be "Rambo" and fumble himself, so there's that.

[Beck Water]

20 minutes ago, BFLO said:

Moss fails the eye test. The stats back up the failed eye test. 

 

Of running backs last season who totaled 10 or more targets on the season, 3.5 yards per reception would rank 78th out of 79. 

 

Do you want the 78th worst ypc running back in the league getting most of our check-down volume?

 

I don't GAF about your "eye test" or your need to have a whipping boy (though Your Kink is OK). 

 

The point is, 3.5 yds moves the chains.  If we move the chains we sustain drives.   The Giants beat the Bills in the 1990 Superbowl with an RB named Ottis Anderson.  Average 3.5 YPC.  Yep, Giants beat the Bills with  their best RB making 3.5 Y/A vs Thurman Thomas, 4.8 Y/A.

 

Did Moss help sustain drives by gaining yards so that the Bills could avoid or convert 3rd downs and score?  Yes or no? 

(Spoiler: The answer is "Yes")

 

Moss hurt the team by fumbling late in the 4th.

That's the problem (along with 2 INT and another fumble), not you second-guessing professional football coaches on their player e v a l and usage.

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Beck Water

[BFLO]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't GAF about your "eye test" or your need to have a whipping boy (though Your Kink is OK). 

 

The point is, 3.5 yds moves the chains.  If we move the chains we sustain drives. 

 

Did Moss help sustain drives by gaining yards so that the Bills could avoid or convert 3rd downs and score?  Yes or no? 

(Spoiler: The answer is "Yes")

 

Moss hurt the team by fumbling. 

That's the problem, not you second-guessing professional football coaches on their player e v a l and usage.

 

Moss helped the least of all players on the Bills to move the chains.  

 

He gained 1 first down on his 12 touches. 3 yards per touch. 

 

He didn't fight for extra yards and gain a first down a single time. 

[The Red King]

I can understand not wanting to wear your prime RB down, but if we're not running that much (excluding JA) there is no reason Singletary can't get almost all of the touches, especially seeing what we did yesterday.

[KOKBILLS]

4 hours ago, BFLO said:

If the Bills continue to rely on Moss to lead the team in touches, it's going to cost them wins. 

 

6 carries for 15 yards, and 1 fumble. That's 2.5 yards per carry.

6 catches for 21 yards on 6 targets. 3.5 yards per catch. (credit to Moss for catching all 6 targets) 

 

12 total touches/targets for 36 yards or 3 yards per touch. 

 

The Bills attempted 31 passes and ran the ball 24 times (excluding the final kneel down). 

 

55 offensive plays and Moss got the ball on 12 or 21.8% of the total. 

 

More than 1 in 5 plays went to Moss. Yet he accounted for 36 of 412 total yards of offense. 8.7% of the total yards, or about 1 in 12.  

 

Midway into the 3rd Moss accounted for +25% of the total touches. That's more than 1 in 4. 

 

In one of the best offenses in the league Moss consistently has put up pedestrian like numbers. He's average on a good day and below average on most days. He's the least talented and least effective player on offense, yet we give him the largest share of the touches. It's mind blowing. 

 

And it's not like feeding Moss the ball stopped Allen from taking hits either... 

 

I don't see how giving the worst offensive skill player on the team the most touches is a winning strategy in the long term. 

 

I think it was a combination of the Rookie fumble, and McD's obvious plan to rotate and balance play time in the season opener...

 

I do totally agree that less Moss is going to be better...No question...

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I don't want to call you an idiot.  Let's say you're writing like a person without much understanding of what you see in the chess match of football.

 

Moss didn't lead the team in touches because the game plan called his number on a team-leading number of plays.  The Rams were playing to take away the deep and intermediate stuff and betting that the same Josh Allen who got throttled by Pittsburgh using that strategy last season opener (and embarrassingly, by Jax), would get throttled the same way or force the throw and get picked (that happened). 

 

Moss led the team in touches because he, like Singletary, was the check-down option in the passing game on a night when Josh needed to get the ball out quick in the face of pressure.  Moss had 2 more touches than Motor, so it's not as though he was being given a ton more, they were dividing the load between the two backs.  And probably it would have been more Cook and less Moss in that role except they needed the best chipping and blocking from the RBs and also, Cook fumbled.

 

Go look at some of the stuff quoted from Jalen Ramsey.  "I feel like we kind of had a mentality like, 'bend, don't break' a lot, because they were driving the ball but they weren't scoring, like, we were getting turnovers, interceptions, whatever it was."  That was their strategy, give up the short stuff, wager that Josh won't take it, and capitalize on mistakes.

 

Instead, Allen showed that now, this year, he was willing to dink and dunk and take the checkdown.  This is a HUGE step forward in Josh's game.  Collinsworth correctly commented that earlier in his career, Josh wouldn't have done that.  I was literally jumping up and down and screaming because it's been the "missing piece" in his passing game.  You wanna send everyone on a jailbreak?  *Flick* get it out and at least get back to the LOS.  Get 1 yd, 2 yds, 7 yds, 8 yds.  Average 3.5 yds per reception.

 

It moved the chains.   10 plays, 11 plays, 15 plays.  Then when LA figured out that strategy of letting the Bills grind down the field was working against their need for points, they decided to send the house (cover 0) and Josh burned them like a blowtorch, right down the middle of the field to Davis. 

 

The only problem was Moss fumbling.  He can't do that.  Ditto Cook.  Muscle Hamster has to tuck it away and not double-catch it if he wants to be The Man in the slot.  And I need to watch to see what happened with Crowder.  My first impression was Josh shouldn't have thrown that one, but Crowder could have come back towards the ball and boxed out the defender.  I think that's a familiarity with Josh thing, the QB's he's played with would throw an arc you can't come back for instead of a dart.

 

The 4 turnovers were the problem, not Moss getting lots of options because he was the checkdown option in the passing game against the league's best defender, causing Josh to need to get the ball out quick. 

 

I personally would like to see MORE touches for Moss and Singletary and fewer designed runs for Josh.  Josh may love it and laugh as he's hit (Singletary said he was) but I don't want to see another season where Josh Allen is the best RB on the Bills.

 

 

 

Like everything here but the last paragraph.  Josh running is the most dangerous thing we do, and when his running game is firing on all cylinders, it add another dimension to the offense and makes us nearly unstoppable. 

 

Let him run, as necessary to win, and hope he doesn't get hurt.

 

Running with a big lead is stupid, or excessive run calls against the Jets won't make sense either, (we'll win in other ways) but let him run.

 

 

[Process]

Again...zero reason for Moss to even be active, outside of an injury

 

 

[Beck Water]

39 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Like everything here but the last paragraph.  Josh running is the most dangerous thing we do, and when his running game is firing on all cylinders, it add another dimension to the offense and makes us nearly unstoppable. 

 

Let him run, as necessary to win, and hope he doesn't get hurt.

 

Running with a big lead is stupid, or excessive run calls against the Jets won't make sense either, (we'll win in other ways) but let him run.

 

We probably agree more than it seems.  I don't think "Josh running is the most dangerous thing we do".  That would be our passing attack. 

 

I do agree that Josh running, or at least the credible threat of Josh running, is a huge weapon and helps the passing attack.  I think it got us the TD to Gabe on the opening drive and the deep throw to Diggs.  Josh heads for the edge and when the rest of the D has been successfully misdirected, the remaining defender(s) are terrified they're gonna be That Guy who let Josh run past them for a huge gain or a TD.

 

In addition to agreeing that "running with a big lead is stupid" or even "going for more yards when you've gotten the first, or put us in 2nd or 3rd and short, is stupid", my point is that I don't want Josh to be the BEST running back on the Bills. 

 

I don't want to see Josh getting the most carries

I don't want to see Josh racking up the most yards. GTFD!

 

I want to see the team effort expended to put up a credible run threat that doesn't depend upon Josh.  I don't know what that entails, but the team has spent 2 3rd round and a 2nd round pick on RBs, which should at least manage to get us more than 56 yds/game from one of them.

 

Over to you @Nextmanup, do you disagree there?

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Beck Water

[Joe Ferguson forever]

1 hour ago, BFLO said:

Moss fails the eye test. The stats back up the failed eye test. 

 

Of running backs last season who totaled 10 or more targets on the season, 3.5 yards per reception would rank 78th out of 79. 

 

Do you want the 78th worst ypc running back in the league getting most of our check-down volume?

He was hurt last season...he's probably not valued as much more than a 5th in trade and who we gonna get instead right now.  I think this is a potential miss in the draft.  If they felt we needed a top rb they should have taken one in the first round.  I think they have some confidence in Moss and it's hard to fault the Bills judgement lately on almost anything.

Edited September 9, 2022 by redtail hawk