2022 MVP: Mahomes wins. Allen gets 1 vote? (42 TDs, 19 TOs, 315 YPG & 63.3%% Comp %--EOY talk 54+)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

 

Serious question. Do we make too much out of turnovers when we talk about the MVP?

 

Allen probably leads the league in turnovers this year but he's also #2 in total TD's, #2 in total yards and if he and the Bills win next week, they will in all likelihood have the #1 seed because they showed up and played their best against the best all while playing one of the leagues toughest schedules and leading the league in point differential. So just how relevant and costly are these turnovers? 

 

I'm on record these last couple of weeks that if Allen can lead the Bills to the #1 seed I think he is deserving over Mahomes. Don't care if he has 20 turnovers on the season if he has 43 TD's and 5,000 yards to go with them along with the 1 seed over Burrow and Mahomes.

 

 

[UKBillFan]

Josh has these games. Best QB bar none at his best but his floor is very low. He swings from one extreme to the other. Primetime Josh is usually exceptional so hopefully that one will turn up in Cincinnati. The picks yesterday were hideous, especially the second one. The first one could be put down as excellent defensive play fooling him. But he had some off throws into the bargain too.

 

Interestingly his passer rating has been like a rollercoaster since the Vikings - sub 100, over 100, sub 100, over 100, sub 100… so over 100 next week then!

[pennstate10]

I think Josh is the MVP. 
 

1) Re: passing stats, consider the windy, rainy, snow bad weather games for Josh. Also consider that bills receivers have highest drop rate in NFL. Despite this , Allen is a top 3 passer when considering all passing stats. And a top 3 runner. 
 

2) Consider supporting cast. Mahomes has Reid, and a top 5 OL. Hurts has the best OL. Burrow has the best trio of wr in NFL. Josh has a below average OL, a first year OC, and 1 top WR. 
 

3). Someone might say Josh has advantage of a top 3 defense.  Although this is clearly an advantage if you want to win a Super Bowl , it’s a disadvantage in the mvp race. A top scoring D means you need fewer points, and therefore less offensive output, less gaudy passing stats to win a game. 
 

I think it would be interesting to see how DC would vote as to which QB they least like seeing. I guess it would be mahomes and Allen, then burrow, then Herbert, then hurts. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

Josh has these games. Best QB bar none at his best but his floor is very low. He swings from one extreme to the other. Primetime Josh is usually exceptional so hopefully that one will turn up in Cincinnati. The picks yesterday were hideous, especially the second one. The first one could be put down as excellent defensive play fooling him. But he had some off throws into the bargain too.

 

The 2nd pick was caused by the vicious cross wind.  Did you watch that wind push a football ON THE GROUND 11 yards into the end zone after the punt?  Allen's mistake IMO was being arrogant in the face of that wind.  Unlike Rich Stadium where the winds are more consistent and blow up and down the field yesterday you had cross winds which are more problematic to passers. Throw in the bitter cold and you have mediocre passing production.

 

BTW, check out QB performances in the cold/windy games yesterday.  A lot of interceptions, low yardage and poor completion percentages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[UKBillFan]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The 2nd pick was caused by the vicious cross wind.  Did you watch that wind push a football ON THE GROUND 11 yards into the end zone after the punt?  Allen's mistake IMO was being arrogant in the face of that wind.  Unlike Rich Stadium where the winds are more consistent and blow up and down the field yesterday you had cross winds which are more problematic to passers. Throw in the bitter cold and you have mediocre passing production.

 

BTW, check out QB performances in the cold/windy games yesterday.  A lot of interceptions, low yardage and poor completion percentages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the arrogance is the issue - not necessarily Josh or Josh alone but Dorsey too. He needed to be told, stop throwing the ball, stop risking the wind, the run is working.

 

It is true that a lot of QBs had issues yesterday when trying to throw the ball.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I think the arrogance is the issue - not necessarily Josh or Josh alone but Dorsey too. He needed to be told, stop throwing the ball, stop risking the wind, the run is working.

 

It is true that a lot of QBs had issues yesterday when trying to throw the ball.

Carr had 3 INT's, Burrow had 2. A couple of other QB's barely broke 100 yards and several were at or below a 50% completion percentage.

 

The thing with Allen's arm arrogance is that more often then not it helps the Bills win games and is unique in the NFL.  Sure it can lead to some bad INT's but the fact remains that in the 2nd half the Bills outscored the Bears 29 - 3 and the INT's did not hurt the team in the final analysis.  Oh and Allen had 3 TD's.

 

 

[Turbo44]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Carr had 3 INT's, Burrow had 2. A couple of other QB's barely broke 100 yards and several were at or below a 50% completion percentage.

 

The thing with Allen's arm arrogance is that more often then not it helps the Bills win games and is unique in the NFL.  Sure it can lead to some bad INT's but the fact remains that in the 2nd half the Bills outscored the Bears 29 - 3 and the INT's did not hurt the team in the final analysis.  Oh and Allen had 3 TD's.

 

 

Allen does more with a much less supporting cast than the other top guys. I don’t advocate PFF but it had everything on our offense, except Josh, average or below average. All other too MVP candidates have elite PFF grades for their surrounding cast. If the Bills run the table and get the 1 seed, josh deserves MVP. He still wouldn’t get it but that’s not the endgame anyway

[balln]

Not once in mvp discussion on tv or non bills media, is Allen beating rat earlier in the season brought up. Not once. As if it never happened

[GoBills808]

21 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Josh has these games. Best QB bar none at his best but his floor is very low. He swings from one extreme to the other. Primetime Josh is usually exceptional so hopefully that one will turn up in Cincinnati. The picks yesterday were hideous, especially the second one. The first one could be put down as excellent defensive play fooling him. But he had some off throws into the bargain too.

 

Interestingly his passer rating has been like a rollercoaster since the Vikings - sub 100, over 100, sub 100, over 100, sub 100… so over 100 next week then!

If you think his floor is very low you clearly don't watch other NFL games

[GunnerBill]

20 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

Allen does more with a much less supporting cast than the other top guys. I don’t advocate PFF but it had everything on our offense, except Josh, average or below average. All other too MVP candidates have elite PFF grades for their surrounding cast. If the Bills run the table and get the 1 seed, josh deserves MVP. He still wouldn’t get it but that’s not the endgame anyway

 

That isn't quite right. We have two elite offense grades (Josh and Stef - no surprise) and three "good" grades (Dawkins, Singletary and Cook).

 

Of the remaining starters: Gabe, Knox, Morse, Bates and Lil Dirty are all graded as average. Brown below average, Saffold poor. Our backups other than Cook are all average or below average. 

[UKBillFan]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

If you think his floor is very low you clearly don't watch other NFL games

His floor is very low. He can lose his mechanics and make very bad reads/decisions. At his worst he looks all over the place. I think, at his worst, he’s weaker as a QB than Mahomes and Burrow at their lowest point. Mind you, want does that mean? That he’s probably better than everyone else, comparatively speaking. Perhaps defenses are just improving all the time which is making QB play more extreme one way or the other (has to be superb at times to break through, and can look awful if it doesn’t work out).

 

I think he could improve on the basics. Take what’s offered a bit more. Don’t take so much on himself, especially when the run game is working - arguably that’s as much on Dorsey. As I said, at his best he’s the number one QB in the league.  At the start of the season, pre bye, I thought we had lost Sugar High Josh for good. Perhaps it will always be part of him.

[Mat68]

On 12/26/2022 at 6:48 AM, UKBillFan said:

His floor is very low. He can lose his mechanics and make very bad reads/decisions. At his worst he looks all over the place. I think, at his worst, he’s weaker as a QB than Mahomes and Burrow at their lowest point. Mind you, want does that mean? That he’s probably better than everyone else, comparatively speaking. Perhaps defenses are just improving all the time which is making QB play more extreme one way or the other (has to be superb at times to break through, and can look awful if it doesn’t work out).

 

I think he could improve on the basics. Take what’s offered a bit more. Don’t take so much on himself, especially when the run game is working - arguably that’s as much on Dorsey. As I said, at his best he’s the number one QB in the league.  At the start of the season, pre bye, I thought we had lost Sugar High Josh for good. Perhaps it will always be part of him.

Mahomes beat the Texans in overtime and lost badly to the Colts.  Burrow played awful in primetime vs the Browns.  Those games are never mentioned.  Allens numbers are very similar to Burrow and Mahomes.  Its the NFL every qb Brady, Manning, Allen have ups and downs.  Many people put the insane Allen games and the 0 punt games as the standard.  Thats the ceiling.  Sunday vs the Bears he still makes many plays to win is the floor.

[DapperCam]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Mahomes beat the Texans in overtime and lost badly to the Colts.  Burrow played awful in primetime vs the Browns.  Those games are never mentioned.  Allens numbers are very similar to Burrow and Mahomes.  It’s the NFL every qb Brady, Manning, Allen have ups and downs.  Many people put the insane Allen games and the 0 punt games as the standard.  Thats the ceiling.  Sunday vs the Bears he still makes many plays to win is the floor.

Mahomes also needed OT to beat the Titans with Malik Willis who played awful. The same Titans team we embarrassed on national television.

[UKBillFan]

21 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Mahomes beat the Texans in overtime and lost badly to the Colts.  Burrow played awful in primetime vs the Browns.  Those games are never mentioned.  Allens numbers are very similar to Burrow and Mahomes.  Its the NFL every qb Brady, Manning, Allen have ups and downs.  Many people put the insane Allen games and the 0 punt games as the standard.  Thats the ceiling.  Sunday vs the Bears he still makes many plays to win is the floor.

The insane games with no punts isn’t the standard - it’s Josh’s ceiling. It’s what makes him, talent wise, the best QB in the NFL. He made some plays against the Bears, but that second interception and bizarre fling it across his body and field to a well covered receiver (second quarter, I think) when there are clearly receivers better positioned is his floor; moments where the only response is what are you doing???
 

I keep repeating myself by saying that it is unfair to expect Josh to be Superman all the time. But if he could just up his floor by a couple of notches, maybe by being more careful with the ball and accepting easier passes more often, then he’d be an even greater force than he already is… and he’s some force already.

[RiotAct]

Q: if you suddenly removed one player from his team, the loss which of those players would have the largest negative impact on his teams W-L percentage?

 

A: Josh Allen

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

45 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

Q: if you suddenly removed one player from his team, the loss which of those players would have the largest negative impact on his teams W-L percentage?

 

A: Josh Allen

 

And in order they would be:

 

Josh Allen

Mahomes

Burrow 

Hurts

 

Mahomes would be a close second. But when is the last time Reid didn't have a QB playing at a high level in his system? Chiefs would at least be a wild card team still without Mahomes in all likelihood. 

 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

The insane games with no punts isn’t the standard - it’s Josh’s ceiling. It’s what makes him, talent wise, the best QB in the NFL. He made some plays against the Bears, but that second interception and bizarre fling it across his body and field to a well covered receiver (second quarter, I think) when there are clearly receivers better positioned is his floor; moments where the only response is what are you doing???
 

I keep repeating myself by saying that it is unfair to expect Josh to be Superman all the time. But if he could just up his floor by a couple of notches, maybe by being more careful with the ball and accepting easier passes more often, then he’d be an even greater force than he already is… and he’s some force already.

I get what you’re trying to say… but I think you’re confusing people with how you keep using “floor”

 

His floor isn’t “very low”. That would mean at his floor he’s one of the worst QBs in football. That’s just not true. 

[Airseven]

“Josh” is not and will not be MVP.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/26/2022 at 1:48 AM, UKBillFan said:

His floor is very low. He can lose his mechanics and make very bad reads/decisions. At his worst he looks all over the place. I think, at his worst, he’s weaker as a QB than Mahomes and Burrow at their lowest point. Mind you, want does that mean? That he’s probably better than everyone else, comparatively speaking. Perhaps defenses are just improving all the time which is making QB play more extreme one way or the other (has to be superb at times to break through, and can look awful if it doesn’t work out).

 

I think he could improve on the basics. Take what’s offered a bit more. Don’t take so much on himself, especially when the run game is working - arguably that’s as much on Dorsey. As I said, at his best he’s the number one QB in the league.  At the start of the season, pre bye, I thought we had lost Sugar High Josh for good. Perhaps it will always be part of him.

 

Forgive me, but you don't know what you're talking about.

 

Sometimes Allen looks bad, but it's often the direct result of essentially carrying the team on his shoulders... and needing to.

 

Before you make claims try actually watching the QBs you reference. Who are you, Nick Wright?

 

Burrow and Mahomes have had utterly awful games over the last couple years (I started posting the bad games from those guys... go look them up... it's exhausting trying to type them for you). And I say the last couple years because we can just throw away years 1 & 2 for Josh because that's when he was actually fixing his mechanics and decisiontryouts king. Do those problems from earlier creep up occasionally? Yep. Do they stick around for entire games? C'mon man...

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

The insane games with no punts isn’t the standard - it’s Josh’s ceiling. It’s what makes him, talent wise, the best QB in the NFL. He made some plays against the Bears, but that second interception and bizarre fling it across his body and field to a well covered receiver (second quarter, I think) when there are clearly receivers better positioned is his floor; moments where the only response is what are you doing???
 

I keep repeating myself by saying that it is unfair to expect Josh to be Superman all the time. But if he could just up his floor by a couple of notches, maybe by being more careful with the ball and accepting easier passes more often, then he’d be an even greater force than he already is… and he’s some force already.

17 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

And in order they would be:

 

Josh Allen

Mahomes

Burrow 

Hurts

 

Mahomes would be a close second. But when is the last time Reid didn't have a QB playing at a high level in his system? Chiefs would at least be a wild card team still without Mahomes in all likelihood. 

 

 

Alex Smith's consistent success with the Chiefs proves your point 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, Airseven said:

“Josh” is not and will not be MVP.

 

Why "Josh"??? What are you implying???