2022 MVP: Mahomes wins. Allen gets 1 vote? (42 TDs, 19 TOs, 315 YPG & 63.3%% Comp %--EOY talk 54+)

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, Doc said:

Josh has the worst offense around him, from players to coaches, by far.

Besides Kelce, KC isn’t exactly loaded. Also, Burrow didn’t have Chase, Mixon, and Higgins for chucks of time.

 

either way, even being in the MVP conversation is really really good. And I posted earlier in this thread that the mvp rarely wins the SB so I’m fine with Allen not winning it.

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Mahomes was also plugged into an offense that had all the weapons already where Allen was plugged into a system with kelvin Benjamin as your top receiver.

 

Hurts and even burrow have been helped with getting better on the offensive line were we got saffold and Queensbury.

 

And all 3 teams have better running backs at this point.

You are vastly overrating KC’s rbs. This is what I can’t stand about this threads. All you try to do is knock the other guys. KC traded a player on pace to break the receiving record and has a bunch of 3 and 4 type wrs & Mahomes is playing awesome. Hurts, who was talked about getting replaced, helps his team get out to big leads and never turns the ball over. 
 

Allen maybe had the best start to the season of all the guys but has faded. Could be the injury. Could be the coaching but either way, you don’t have to put down another player to raise yours up. 

[C.Biscuit97]

14 hours ago, bobobonators said:

Something that cant be overlooked that puts Allen at a disadvantage:  Hurts, Mahomes and Burrow all play for a HC that is an offensive-minded coach. The teams have an OC but the HC’s of those respective teams strongly guide the offense of those teams. And of most importance that creates stability and consistency for the offense over time unless the HC gets fired. 
 

Look what happened to us with Daboll. Right when Allen was hitting his stride, he accepts a HC gig. Same thing will continue happening with OC over the years. 
 

I love McD and im not advocating for a change at HC, just pointing out a reality Allen has to contend with. Every few years it’ll likely be a slightly different system as our OC get HC jobs (or get fired with us). 

At the same point, Allen had the same OC since his rookie year who just became a nfl head coach. That never happens. 
 

also with guys like Mahomes, Reid personally selected him after there were many questions about him. Reid had Alex Smith who didn’t throw a td to a receiver an entire season once and they made the playoffs! Mahomes is legit great and almost underrated on this board. 

[The Wiz]

26 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

You are vastly overrating KC’s rbs. This is what I can’t stand about this threads. All you try to do is knock the other guys. KC traded a player on pace to break the receiving record and has a bunch of 3 and 4 type wrs & Mahomes is playing awesome. Hurts, who was talked about getting replaced, helps his team get out to big leads and never turns the ball over. 
 

 

If I'm overrating their rbs that's fine.  The rest is pretty much true.  I don't see that knocking them down.  Both are playing at better right now because they have more overall talent on offense around them was really my point.

[Alphadawg7]

Hurts deserves the MVP.  It’s not really a debate right now.  
 

Could Allen storm back…maybe, but he would have to have a monster, and I mean monster game against both Miami and Cincy and beat them badly, not to mention do the same with Chi and NE too.  
 

And that still may not be enough to over take Hurts unless Hurts has a couple bad games here down the stretch.
 

The reason…Hurts has not had any up and down games, he has 3 INTs on the season.  

But, who really cares anyway?  I don’t care about the MVP, I care about winning the Super Bowl.  Nothing else is important.  

[prissythecat]

15 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Here are the 4 obvious QB leaders for MVP in terms of all the important stats:

 

QB1

4181 yards

63.8% Completion %

32 TDs

15 TOs

 

QB2

4440 yards

65.8% Completion %

35 TDs

11 TOs

 

QB3

3919 yards 

68.1 Completion %

32 TDs

11 TOs

 

QB4

3843 yards

68 % Completion %

32 TDs

5 TOs

 

 

 

 

I don't think it's too hard to figure out that Josh is QB1, Mahomes is QB2, Burrow is QB3, and Hurts is QB4.  Didn't put team records in there, but obviously Hurts is the #1 seed in the NFC with the best record in the NFL and the Bills are the #1 seed in the AFC.  I bring those up because historically that matters.  Probably also matters at least a little that Mahomes has lost to both Allen and Burrow.  

 

So yeah, just looking at those 4 QBs, one would probably say Mahomes and Hurts are the 2 leaders, logically.  But neither are running away with it right now, especially not Mahomes.  I actually think the fact that Burrow, Allen and Mahomes all play each other will be at least a small factor along with the ease of schedule for the Eagles.

 

So... Allen is behind.  But in his next 4 games he plays the Dolphins (who Josh historically owns and puts up gaudy numbers), the Bears (who are allowing the 4th most points in the NFL this season at 25.6), the Bengals (toughest game by far, no doubt.  But it's also in primetime... and... well... Josh Allen), and the Patriots (who Josh has owned for the last few seasons and puts up generally gaudy numbers, save the hurrcane windstorm from last season).

 

We can all agree our offense hasn't looked like it did at the very beginning of the season, but how many of you would bet against Josh having more than 1 superb, MVP level game in his last 4 outings?

 

 

 

 

Has there ever been an MVP that has a bad stretch of games amounting to at least 1/3 of a season?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Hurts deserves the MVP.  It’s not really a debate right now.  
 

Could Allen storm back…maybe, but he would have to have a monster, and I mean monster game against both Miami and Cincy and beat them badly, not to mention do the same with Chi and NE too.  
 

And that still may not be enough to over take Hurts unless Hurts has a couple bad games here down the stretch.
 

The reason…Hurts has not had any up and down games, he has 3 INTs on the season.  

But, who really cares anyway?  I don’t care about the MVP, I care about winning the Super Bowl.  Nothing else is important.  

This probably doesn’t factor into it much but hurts would look nowhere near as good if he was playing the bills schedule imo.  Philly has had the 30th toughest schedule by dvoa rankings this season so far and it doesn’t get much tougher in the last 4 weeks.  Id give it to mahomes right now if it was up to me…he’s got Kelce and a good offensive line and nothing else.  Hurts has a ton of weapons 

 

Josh is in the worst situation of the 3 so if he was a little closer in stats I’d lean his way but he’s behind for sure at the moment 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Turbo44]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

Has there ever been an MVP that has a bad stretch of games amounting to at least 1/3 of a season?

If you think that stretch was bad I advise you to watch 28 other teams Starting qbs or Buffalo QBs since Kelly. An elbow injury, that most would have sat out with, probably had a lot to do with it along with a ton of dropped passes. Granted Josh did make some mistakes but all QBs do - mahomes against us this year…

[prissythecat]

7 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

If you think that stretch was bad I advise you to watch 28 other teams Starting qbs or Buffalo QBs since Kelly. An elbow injury, that most would have sat out with, probably had a lot to do with it along with a ton of dropped passes. Granted Josh did make some mistakes but all QBs do - mahomes against us this year…

 

Your post isn't relevant to the MVP discussion....

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

Has there ever been an MVP that has a bad stretch of games amounting to at least 1/3 of a season?

 

Are we saying Allen has been bad for 1/3rd of the season so far or he's been bad for 1/3rd of the total 17 game season?

 

Allen was "bad" for the Packers game, the Jets game, and the Vikings game. During that stretch he had 5 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 324 yards per game.

 

In 2017 Brady had a 3 game stretch with a Passer Rating in the 80s or below and threw 2 TDs, 4 turnovers, and averaged 262 yards per game.

 

In 2015 Cam Newton had a 3 game stretch where he had 6 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 268 yards per game.

 

That's as far back as I went, but the answer is yes, because both of those players turned out to be league MVP.

Edited December 13, 2022 by transplantbillsfan

[prissythecat]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Are we saying Allen has been bad for 1/3rd of the season so far or he's been bad for 1/3rd of the total 17 game season?

 

Allen was "bad" for the Packers game, the Jets game, and the Vikings game. During that stretch he had 5 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 324 yards per game.

 

In 2017 Brady had a 3 game stretch with a Passer Rating in the 80s or below and threw 2 TDs, 4 turnovers, and averaged 262 yards per game.

 

In 2015 Cam Newton had a 3 game stretch where he had 6 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 268 yards per game.

 

That's as far back as I went, but the answer is yes, because both of those players turned out to be league MVP.

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

From the above link ,  I see 6 games where his passer rating was below a 90.    An average passer rating in this day's NFL is 90. So that seems to quickly indicate around 6 subpar games.

 

[transplantbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

From the above link ,  I see 6 games where his passer rating was below a 90.    An average passer rating in this day's NFL is 90. So that seems to quickly indicate around 6 subpar games.

 

 

Tom Brady had 6 games below 90 in 2017 when he won NFL MVP.  Cam Newton had 7 games below 90 in 2015 when he won NFL MVP.  Lamar Jackson had 4 games below in 2019... NFL MVP.

Edited December 13, 2022 by transplantbillsfan

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Are we saying Allen has been bad for 1/3rd of the season so far or he's been bad for 1/3rd of the total 17 game season?

 

Allen was "bad" for the Packers game, the Jets game, and the Vikings game. During that stretch he had 5 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 324 yards per game.

 

In 2017 Brady had a 3 game stretch with a Passer Rating in the 80s or below and threw 2 TDs, 4 turnovers, and averaged 262 yards per game.

 

In 2015 Cam Newton had a 3 game stretch where he had 6 TDs, 7 turnovers, and averaged 268 yards per game.

 

That's as far back as I went, but the answer is yes, because both of those players turned out to be league MVP.

 

So did you check how many sub 90 passer rating games Hurts, Burrow, or Mahomes have had ?   I took a quick look at Hurts and I can count all of 3.   Also ,   I see that Hurts , Burrow,  Mahomes have average passer ratings comfortably over 100.   Allen is sitting at 95.5.   Allen would need to average 118 (23 points above his current average ) over his last 4 games just to hit 100.  That should tell you how far behind he is and how unrealistic it is to keep pushing the MVP storyline. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

So did you check how many sub 90 passer rating games Hurts, Burrow, or Mahomes have had ?   I took a quick look at Hurts and I can count all of 3.   Also ,   I see that Hurts , Burrow,  Mahomes have average passer ratings comfortably over 100.   Allen is sitting at 95.5.   Allen would need to average 118 (23 points above his current average ) over his last 4 games just to hit 100.  That should tell you how far behind he is and how unrealistic it is to keep pushing the MVP storyline. 

passer rating by itself  has it’s flaws though. 

 

Allen still ranks 3rd overall in QBR. Ahead of Burrow and Hurts.

[prissythecat]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

passer rating by itself  has it’s flaws though. 

 

Allen still ranks 3rd overall in QBR. Ahead of Burrow and Hurts.

 

Isn't QBR that funky ESPN metric that most don't like?  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, prissythecat said:

 

Isn't QBR that funky ESPN metric that most don't like?  

Everyone has their own opinions. I like QBR overall more because it makes sense to take into account game circumstances, drops, qb rushing etc.

 

With out all of those things you end up with misleading passer rating stats. 
 

That doesn’t mean QBR doesn’t have it’s own issues. It would be great if we know exactly how it is calculated for every game. But all in all, if you have a season long sample size I tend to side with QBR over just passer rating metric. 

[prissythecat]

36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Everyone has their own opinions. I like QBR overall more because it makes sense to take into account game circumstances, drops, qb rushing etc.

 

With out all of those things you end up with misleading passer rating stats. 
 

That doesn’t mean QBR doesn’t have it’s own issues. It would be great if we know exactly how it is calculated for every game. But all in all, if you have a season long sample size I tend to side with QBR over just passer rating metric. 

Fair enough.  There isn't a perfect QB metric out there for sure .  But at least the passer rating is transparent.   The problem I have with QBR is its lack of transparency and bizarre ranking results like when Tebow was playing.

[dollars 2 donuts]

I don't think he is winning it, as many of you have already alluded.

 

However, to at least crawl back into the picture he would need a classic late season Josh run...he needs 10 more passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs to get him into that mid 40 range.

 

If after the playoffs (including a SB victory) it would be great for them to at least be able to say he has had 3 straight 50 TD seasons.

 

 

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, prissythecat said:

Fair enough.  There isn't a perfect QB metric out there for sure .  But at least the passer rating is transparent.   The problem I have with QBR is its lack of transparency and bizarre ranking results like when Tebow was playing.

One thing I still haven't understood. In Allen's perfect game against the pats, he did have a 158.3 passer rating right up until he threw the td to Doyle.

 

That dropped him to a 157.6.  I'm still not sure how a td makes your passer rating on a completed td is bad.

 

[prissythecat]

6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

One thing I still haven't understood. In Allen's perfect game against the pats, he did have a 158.3 passer rating right up until he threw the td to Doyle.

 

That dropped him to a 157.6.  I'm still not sure how a td makes your passer rating on a completed td is bad.

 

 

the link below should help explain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, prissythecat said:

 

the link below should help explain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

 

 

The passer rating went down because his yards per attempt dipped below the magical threshold.

 

But the poster brings up a good point. It’s one reason why passer rating is flawed. On that single play Allen got the most he could’ve gotten out of it yet the passer rating goes down. Doesn’t make sense logically.

 

The other game in Allen’s career that shows the importance of finding a middle ground between passer rating and a statistic like QBR was the Atlanta game from last season.
 

Statistically one of the Allen’s worse games of his career by pass rating. Throwing three interceptions. But also statistically one of his best games of his career, using his legs and running the ball. That’s why he had an above average QBR for the game.