Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026

[Eastport bills]

This is an overpriced contract with a TE that hasn’t established his value. He has injuries and low receptions in his career and with Kincaid we just need a TE who blocks. He has red zone and TD stats but I’d rather devote his cap hit to a FA receiver that stretches the field or a depth LB that can rush the QB.

[H2o]

Nobody:

 

vtnatefootball11: The Dawson Knox contract thread from a year and a half ago for a LAMP 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Knox contract looks bad on the surface, but the nitty gritty details leave some room for flexibility.

 

We can restructure this season, which basically guarantees next year, and save some cash. 
 

He’s a solid #1, great #2 TE. He isn’t a top end paid TE, although his pay for a #2 (or 1B) is high. TE1 money wise, he is middle of the pack. 

[Matt_In_NH]

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

We can restructure this season, which basically guarantees next year, and save some cash. 

By save some cash do you mean lower the 2024 cap hit and increase the cap hits in figure years?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

By save some cash do you mean lower the 2024 cap hit and increase the cap hits in figure years?

I’m no cap expert, but yes I believe we can lower his cap hit in 2024, which increases his guarantees for 2025. 
 

I may be wrong though.

[Freak-O]

3 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Bringing this thread back to life after some time has passed from the Knox signing. I took a lot of heat for saying it on this board at the time, but it was a terrible contract then and looks even worse now.  It needs to be talked about how bad of a miss this was by Beane.  He is going to count $14 mil against the cap this year, $20m if we release him... How the heck did Beane let this happen!   His touchdown numbers were inflated that season before we re-signed him, there was no good reason to extend him at that time.  He's never flashed elite talent.  I'm still sick over it.

How about trying as hard to find things Beane has done well as you do trying to find things that hasn’t gone well? No one bats a thousand.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Last season he was the 15th highest paid TE at 6.3, unfortunately he dealt with injuries all season.

 

Next year he’s slated to be 5th at 14.3m but that ranking drops after FA and I’m sure he restructures. A 4m pay decrease drops him into the 13-15 range, which was fair for a starting TE. 

[HOUSE]

This is a rip off, don't do it

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Knox didn't suddenly become unable to make plays. 

 

We lost Beasley, Brown and Sanders and basically didn't replace them until this year with Kincaid. in 2022 we brought Brown and Beasley out of retirement for a playoff run for crying out loud! 

 

Shakir has made some nice plays, and hopefully he continues to develop. But we forget that we had Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Sanders and Knox. We used to have actual deep threats on the team to open up space.

 

That’s exactly what happened this season when he broke his wrist. i’m bringing it up in a joking way, but mainly my point is that it impacted him greatly this season - especially when he tried to play through it. I said it before and I’ll say it again now, the tight end market is crazy. At the time I thought it was a slight overpay, but nothing to get the pitchforks out over. 

Edited February 22 by BarleyNY

[vtnatefootball11]

16 minutes ago, Freak-O said:

How about trying as hard to find things Beane has done well as you do trying to find things that hasn’t gone well? No one bats a thousand.

 

You haven't been readying the posts, I've complimented Beane over and over again just in the last couple pages and said he just missed this Knox one badly.

 

@GunnerBill  Lots of disagreement from you on the assertion that the Knox contract was a bad one. Please elaborate on why you think it wasn't a bad contract. I'm genuinely curious as to how you could possibly have that opinion. 

Edited February 22 by vtnatefootball11

[TheyCallMeAndy]

It’s easy to sit here and think about Knox’ 2023 season, look at his 2024 cap hit, and complain. 
 

If you actually look at the 20 top paid TEs for next season, it looks nearly random. Dawson Knox is far from the only ‘bad contract.’ 
 

I think everyone on this MB would feel better if Knox was 17-20th highest paid TE in the NFL. He would definitely be better than most of the TE’s he’d be neighbored around.

 

17-20 TE money is still 8.5-9m per year range, that’s just a 5m pay cut, totally do-able. 
 

I’d like to see them restructure this year to lower the cap hit, making larger commitments to 2025. If 2024 is another bust for Knox, eat your medicine and move on, they can still save some money. 
 

If Knox has a nice rebound season as a still featured TE1b, then you can extend his contract past 2025, spreading those commitments out again. 

[Special K]

On 9/7/2022 at 12:51 PM, Special K said:

 

That was my first thought after hearing about the Knox contract....”save some money for Davis and Oliver!!”

 

I’m pretty sure they will be the next two priorities for re-signing next offseason. 

 

This is is likely the last season in a Bills uniform for Singletary and Edmunds. I’m holding out hope for a 1 year extension for Poyer, but I’m sure he’s looking for a longer term deal and will roll the dice on the FA market next offseason.

 

Found my post in this massive thread.....not too far off aside from Davis......thanks to Kincaid, Knox has become an expensive backup, but I think there is still a role for him as far as run blocking and red zone.

[boyst]

the biggest potential mismatch on the field of football is the QB. The second is the TE.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

7 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

Found my post in this massive thread.....not too far off aside from Davis......thanks to Kincaid, Knox has become an expensive backup, but I think there is still a role for him as far as run blocking and red zone.

He can still easily get 3-5 targets a game.

 

51 to 85 targets a season.

 

He caught 61% of his passes last year, 61% of 85 targets is 51 catches. Thats a career high, and puts him in the top half if TEs statically. 
 

There is a path for production in this offense for Knox, without taking anything away from Kincaid and Shakir. 

Edited February 22 by TheyCallMeAndy

[MJS]

3 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Every time I watch SF, Kittle does close to nothing. 

For sure. When he got injured and misses some time in their most recent game, the announcers went on a out what a huge loss it was, but I was thinking the entire time that he had done nothing up to that point.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

In the 7 games after his injury, Knox posted

 

10 catches (11 targets) 97 yards, 2 TDs 1 drop. 9 first downs. 
 

Post injury Dawson Knox was absolutely fine. 

[DrMaxPower]

38 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

It’s easy to sit here and think about Knox’ 2023 season, look at his 2024 cap hit, and complain. 
 

If you actually look at the 20 top paid TEs for next season, it looks nearly random. Dawson Knox is far from the only ‘bad contract.’ 
 

I think everyone on this MB would feel better if Knox was 17-20th highest paid TE in the NFL. He would definitely be better than most of the TE’s he’d be neighbored around.

 

17-20 TE money is still 8.5-9m per year range, that’s just a 5m pay cut, totally do-able. 
 

I’d like to see them restructure this year to lower the cap hit, making larger commitments to 2025. If 2024 is another bust for Knox, eat your medicine and move on, they can still save some money. 
 

If Knox has a nice rebound season as a still featured TE1b, then you can extend his contract past 2025, spreading those commitments out again. 

 

I think this explains the realities of the situation pretty well.

 

Like it or not, people always look at the stats 1st. Knox's have obviously been underwhelming. I think most were expecting an increase in usage but it's been the opposite.

 

The reality is there are very few true 'dual' TE's. Most lean heavily to either a blocking or receiving role. Dawson is in a pretty small group that can do both well. He's become a very good blocker and is a plus athlete for the position.

 

He's certainly making more than his current role justifies but I think people are kidding themselves if they think he wouldn't get similar money as a FA. He'd be 10-14 mil all day.

[Brand J]

24 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

In the 7 games after his injury, Knox posted

 

10 catches (11 targets) 97 yards, 2 TDs 1 drop. 9 first downs. 
 

Post injury Dawson Knox was absolutely fine. 

The argument is Knox isn’t worth the contract for his production on the field. These numbers further illustrate that point. Essentially 1 catch per game for a first down. 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

@GunnerBill  Lots of disagreement from you on the assertion that the Knox contract was a bad one. Please elaborate on why you think it wasn't a bad contract. I'm genuinely curious as to how you could possibly have that opinion. 

 

Because across 2021 and 2022 he was a top 5 Tight End in terms of redzone production. His production elsewhere was a result of game plan not any lack of ability on his part - he was top 10 (all players) in separation rates per Next Gen Stats - the Bills just ignored him. Where the Bills used him, he was excellent. 

 

I am willing to give him a mulligan on 2023 given the injuries. He played hurt from week 2 on until they finally shut him down for a chunk of the year.

 

I do think the drafting of Kincaid and the fact that Josh prefers to play in 11 means his bare production has a ceiling, but he is still a very good player. 

Edited February 22 by GunnerBill

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 minutes ago, Brand J said:

The argument is Knox isn’t worth the contract for his production on the field. These numbers further illustrate that point. Essentially 1 catch per game for a first down. 

But arguing about a contract is dumb, because there is always something the team can do to adjust the money.