Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026

[Gugny]

18 minutes ago, Bandito said:

I am sorry you can't handle the truth. Just pointing out facts. He has not lived up to expectations this year after a stellar year last year. TE TD production is fluky and it seems he was paid according to his TD production last year.

 

I'm really not being a smartass when I ask you this, but, have you watched any Bills games this season?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

13 minutes ago, Bandito said:

15 catches

148 yards

1 TD

 

His production does not warrant being paid in the top echelon of the league. We need more production from him. Comparing does not matter. Other TE's are over valued as well and are way over paid too.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Bandito said:

The Bills paid him after 1 good season. 

 

He only has 1 TD so far this season to go along with 148 receiving yards. The Bills, like many other teams over paid for players who had a fluky good year. We see it all the time in free agency.

 

6 minutes ago, Bandito said:

I am sorry you can't handle the truth. Just pointing out facts. He has not lived up to expectations this year after a stellar year last year. TE TD production is fluky and it seems he was paid according to his TD production last year.

 

What exactly were the expectations set for him by the Bills, guess I missed when that was stated by the team.  Or is it just your expectations. 

 

You list his stats, but nothing listed about blocking.  His role has changed somewhat this year as he's being asked to block much more than prior.  Whether that's the fault of poor line play or not, isn't his fault for him being asked to do more blocking.  Or could be that in the past the team didn't trust him to block, now they do so he's being kept in more.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

I'm really not being a smartass when I ask you this, but, have you watched any Bills games this season?

 

Or watched them sober?

[Beck Water]

58 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Knox is great, lost in the shuffle of all this sudden hate is that the idea that he's about to be paid like one of the top TEs in the league is that he's not.

 

He didn't top/reset the market, there's a bunch of guys ahead of him when he signed the contract, in a year or two he'll be in the middle of the pack.

 

He's the 6th highest TE in total contract and in AAV.   You're right he didn't reset the market, but top-6 or even top-10 is "paid like one of the top TEs in the league" by most people's standards.

 

TE is a hard position to evaluate play and set value, because some of the top paid TE are really used more like huge-ass WR.   They are running routes on almost every play and it shows in their targets and other receiving stats.  Some are more like underweight OLmen.  And some are asked to be complete TE and do both.

 

Knox is asked to do both.   When he does run routes, it's often a release after he chips or a short route to serve as an outlet.

 

It's fundamentally flawed to look at his contract and his production in the passing game (targets, receptions, yards) and just compare him to the TE who are heavily used in the receiving game, like Waller, Kelce, Andrews, Ertz, Higbee, Everett (tip: when a guy has targets comparable to the top-32 WR in the league, it's a good guess he's being primarily asked to run routes)

 

My sense is that Knox has under-produced in the passing game a bit relative to what the Bills expected this year, but he's missed a game and he's also likely working his way back emotionally from a huge personal loss.  There's something to be said for letting him block a bit more and waiting until he shows whatever they want to see in practice before asking more of him in a game

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Beck Water

[Solomon Grundy]

On Knox, R-E-L-A-X!! He's being a DAWG right now!! Diggs said Knox was going through some things. He's still showing up for work and producing when his number is called. 

[GunnerBill]

On 10/9/2022 at 2:06 AM, ArtVandalay said:

 

He's run the 8th most routes of any TE in the league. Last year he ran the 8th most routes of any TE. He gets plenty of opportunity in the passing game. He's continually poor in yards per route run (32nd this year,  22nd last year, 31st year prior)... unless we are to say Josh is to blame?

 

Yes, Josh and the playcallers are to "blame" though I don't use blame on the pejorative way that you intend. Yards per route run has three factors that go into it:

1. Number of routes run;

2. Number of targets;

3. Depth of targets / YAC possibility;

 

A guy who runs lots of routes (8th most among tight ends) but is not highly targeted (20th among tight ends in 2021) is going to need a high depth of target / YAC rate to score highly in YPRR. However, in 2021 of Knox's 71 targets, 22 were redzone targets (31% of his total). 14 of his 49 completions (29%) were redzone completions. That is bound to drag the YPRR down even further because they are going to be at most 20 yard passes (and most obviously are from much closer in). So when you actually look at the metrics properly there is absolutely nothing surprising about Knox ranking lower in YPRR. That is about usage. Not about talent. He is also a much better blocker than a lot of tight ends, including some of the big names people would reach straight for in this context... but I agree that when you pay a tight end $13m per even if they are a genuine all around tight end like Knox then you need the pass game production to be better than it has been through 5 games.

 

And I suppose that is where I take the point that @Bandito is trying to make. The "blame" is just in the wrong place. At the moment the Bills haven't justified the deal they have given to Dawson Knox because they have actually reduced his usage. If the plan is to only target him 60 times in a season (which is his current pace) then they have overpaid so they need to find a way to get him the ball more, because when they are throwing the ball his way these days he IS make the simple plays and not just the spectacular ones. Dawson Knox is doing everything he can to justify the deal. For the Bills to justify it they need to use him more.

 

Personally I think his limited usage so far this season has been because he has been nicked up since Q1 of the Titans game. He looked to be moving better in KC and with the two week break I'm hopeful we see more of Knox in the plan as we move forward. He is unquestionably our 3rd best option and I think he is a real mismatch. Talent wise there isn't a young tight end other than Kyle Pitts I'd take over him. And it is that description of him being "underperforming" or "middling" with which I take issue. If anything he is underused. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

He's the 6th highest TE in total contract and in AAV.  

 

 

7th in AAV. You are right 6th in total value. Goedart jumps him in AAV. 

[teef]

49 minutes ago, todd said:

facts: Knox is clutch. We’re not even halfway into the season. His blocking is superb. He’s versatile. He’s a receiving threat. You are on a silly crusade.

 

These are facts. Deal with them.

This is where I’m at with it.  We’re not even 7 games in yet and already we see people with pitchforks.  This team is still evolving so let’s see how this plays out.  I remember a day when posters were furious for the bills not keeping their talent.  How the times have changed. 

[eball]

1 hour ago, Bandito said:

We need more production from him

 

Yeah.  This offense should be putting up 500 yards per game.

 

Underachievers.

 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, teef said:

This is where I’m at with it.  We’re not even 7 games in yet and already we see people with pitchforks.  This team is still evolving so let’s see how this plays out.  I remember a day when posters were furious for the bills not keeping their talent.  How the times have changed. 

 

So many people have zero patience anymore.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

So many people have zero patience anymore.

I have no idea what it is. Is Knox’s production down form last year?  Sure, but maybe he ends up being the go to guy in the playoffs.  There’s so many ways this can play out, and as Gunner and others have mentioned, he just hasn’t been called on much at this point.  Whether it be due to injuries, his brother’s death or just how the offense is being run, I don’t for a second think it’s due to a lack of ability. 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Bandito said:

So many people can't see the point because of their bias. Any criticism is met with fierce opposition. The point being made is Knox's production this year has not been elite to live up to his contract extension. Who's fault is that? Maybe it is schematic. Maybe it is his. Maybe both? Many teams over the years has fallen into that trap of paying mediocre TEs tons of $ based on 1 fluky great year.

 

Chill out.  No need to get paranoid.  The point being made is your point, not mine.  It's your right to your opinion, I just think it's a little

bit over-reactionary.  As to assigning fault, I see no reason to expect that a first year OC with 6 games under his belt is a finished

product.  I've said this over and over about the offense so far.  Thus my "patience" statement.

[TheBrownBear]

13 minutes ago, Bandito said:

That makes sense. Whoever is to blame, why pay him that much $ when they aren't using him? It isn't my $ so I guess I shouldn't care too much but it seems like they were duped by his huge TD production last year. TD production is fluky year to year and thus I don't see why the Bills believe he is an elite talent. He is a decent TE but not elite to warrant an elite contract. Other teams have been duped into over paying TE's as well. 

LOL.  You think Beane and McDermott were "duped" by Knox, a guy who they've been able to watch closely everyday for three years?  I'm pretty sure they knew exactly what they were getting and I'm guessing they have zero regrets paying a guy what will soon be mid-tier TE money to serve as a very good all-around TE on the best offense in the NFL.

[Einstein's Dog]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And I suppose that is where I take the point that @Bandito is trying to make. The "blame" is just in the wrong place. At the moment the Bills haven't justified the deal they have given to Dawson Knox because they have actually reduced his usage. If the plan is to only target him 60 times in a season (which is his current pace) then they have overpaid so they need to find a way to get him the ball more, because when they are throwing the ball his way these days he IS make the simple plays and not just the spectacular ones. Dawson Knox is doing everything he can to justify the deal. For the Bills to justify it they need to use him more.

 

The Bills FO has justified the deal to me, because they are the best team in football at the moment - and Knox is a part of that.

 

D Knox is a home grown player....offers continuity...Process guy..team player...is a true Bill.  Looks like Knox will be the best TE in Bills history.  They gave him a fair market deal a year early, that's what smart FO's do.  They avoided the stat hunting  problem, the annoyance on a winning team of an individuals usage problem (see E Moore).

 

If the FO didn't give him a fair deal at the time they did, they would be looking at getting a TE this offseason.  J Smith and H Henry had already gone for $12.5M.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Bandito said:

That makes sense. Whoever is to blame, why pay him that much $ when they aren't using him? It isn't my $ so I guess I shouldn't care too much but it seems like they were duped by his huge TD production last year. TD production is fluky year to year and thus I don't see why the Bills believe he is an elite talent. He is a decent TE but not elite to warrant an elite contract. Other teams have been duped into over paying TE's as well. 

 

 

It might be semantics but I don't think they have given him an elite contract. They have given him a very good contract for a very good player. I think his talent is comparable with basically anyone after Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, Waller and Pitts. And I can make an argument that other than Kittle he blocks better than those other guys too (thought I think he is less skilled and less explosive as a receiver). 

 

[Chandler#81]

41 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Yeah.  This offense should be putting up 500 yards per game.

 

Underachievers.

 

Yep. No wonder they lost.. 🤦‍♂️

[Einstein's Dog]

21 minutes ago, Bandito said:

That makes sense. Whoever is to blame, why pay him that much $ when they aren't using him? It isn't my $ so I guess I shouldn't care too much but it seems like they were duped by his huge TD production last year. TD production is fluky year to year and thus I don't see why the Bills believe he is an elite talent. He is a decent TE but not elite to warrant an elite contract. Other teams have been duped into over paying TE's as well. 

So many people can't see the point because of their bias. Any criticism is met with fierce opposition. The point being made is Knox's production this year has not been elite to live up to his contract extension. Who's fault is that? Maybe it is schematic. Maybe it is his. Maybe both? Many teams over the years has fallen into that trap of paying mediocre TEs tons of $ based on 1 fluky great year.

You seem to judge a TEs worth solely on yardage statistics.  That's a mistake.

 

How much do you think D Knox would get in Free Agency?  J Smith got $12.5M last year, as did H Henry.  D Njoku was franchised at about $11M.  Knox's deal is right in line with these "elites".  

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Bandito said:

It is because of the heat! You know, the same heat that the Vikings had to deal with and won in MIA!

 

Good grief.  Your hand is played out.

 

[Logic]

The thing that makes me shake my head is this:

Stefon Diggs is on pace for a career high 150 receptions! If he accomplished that feat, it would be an NFL record!

That high volume of targets is almost certainly going to come at the expense of other players on offense. Knox isn't being targeted nearly as often this season, but Diggs is being targeted much more. If Knox's statistical production is the sacrifice that must be made so that our best offensive playmaker, Stefon Diggs, can get the ball so much that he potentially sets an NFL record, I'm fine with it.

In the Bills' case, the offensive production has been there. Josh Allen, before the bye week, was leading the NFL in passing yards. The Bills are second in points per game. 

Meanwhile, Knox very recently caught a clutch, contested, game winning touchdown.

 

So what's the problem here?

Edited October 26, 2022 by Logic

[Gugny]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Good grief.  Your hand is played out.

 

 

Yup.  The secret to successful trolling is knowing when to stop.