Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026

[TBBills]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Like the fact he’s going to be here, feel like they could have gotten to him earlier for less, but whatever.  I’ll judge more when I see the numbers.  If anything, I really hope this means Edmunds will walk after the season.

I don't think anyone needs you to be judging anything. So no need to wait for any numbers.

[LeGOATski]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

However, Bernard has really been used in the latter half of camp and in the pre-season games almost exclusively as the 2nd team MLB. Dodson has been the guy playing as the third LB in 4-3 base and the guy backing up Matt Milano. And in terms of Bernard's play on the field he has looked much more comfortable sticking his nose into the rough stuff near the line of scrimmage than he has covering in space. 

 

My take on Edmunds has been that they are going to let this year play out, and I still feel that way. I don't think that means he is definitely gone after the season, he could still earn an extension but I think early returns on Bernard suggest that he and Edmunds are competing for one spot in this defense. Edmunds obviously has that spot locked up for 2022, but I think beyond the season they have a big decision to make. 

Agreed. Didn't Beane essentially say they needed to see Tremaine become a more assertive player this year? I don't have a link to reference, just going off a vague memory of an interview over the summer.

 

From what we saw in preseason, Bernard doesn't seem to have the range in coverage that Edmunds has, but we shall see. If not, he seems like he could be the new Milano next to a re-signed Edmunds.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Agreed. Didn't Beane essentially say they needed to see Tremaine become a more assertive player this year? I don't have a link to reference, just going off a vague memory of an interview over the summer.

 

From what we saw in preseason, Bernard doesn't seem to have the range in coverage that Edmunds has, but we shall see. If not, he seems like he could be the new Milano next to a re-signed Edmunds.

 

The bolded is what I am a tad sceptical on. He did not look a natural coverage player in pre-season. If anything he looked more like a Klein replacement in that he looks much better moving vertically attacking the line than he does going horizontal to the line of scrimmage. 

[machine gun kelly]

I think they will just let it play out on Edmunds, Poyer, and Singletary.  I doubt Poyer will accept what we offer as much as I wish he would.  Edmunds is a wait and see.  Singletary will get a modest offer, but he may shop the market.

 

The next two to get signed will be Oliver and then Davis.  If Oliver plays like I expect in next to Von and company, he’s going to command a significant contract.  That places Davis into play and we’ll have to see if Beane can squeeze enough for him or he may go.  We won’t be able to give him a $20 mil./yr.  Contract.  I really want Beane to find a way, but they have extended the right guys these last two years to date.

[machine gun kelly]

One last point is just like when you balanced out the contract for Knox with the low cap hit this year just as many of you mentioned in the past the Dawkins, Milano, and Tre contracts, they look more reasonable.

 

If you take his $53.6 mil. + his current salary of $2.745 mil., it actually starts to look a little better over five years of $11.269 mil./yr..  He will be by the end of this contract a Bill for 8 years, and still only 30.  I love what Beane has done, trying to key pieces to extend early as the price tag almost always goes up.

[John from Riverside]

They can’t pay everybody beane is good but not that good

 

We knew this was coming whenever you draft well like beane Does eventually tough decisions have to be made to me Oliver is a must keep Gabe Davis is a must keep especially if they ball out this year they are young and still improving

 

Poyer if he’s reasonable could still get a couple of years extension I think Edmonds is gone he’s just gonna want too much money I absolutely believe that Bernard was drafted because of Edmonds

Edited September 8, 2022 by John from Riverside

[LeGOATski]

42 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think Edmonds is gone he’s just gonna want too much money I absolutely believe that Bernard was drafted because of Edmonds

I can't get behind this yet. If they're going to replace Edmunds, it's going to be with another elite athlete with high-end traits. McDermott has had Kuechly and Edmonds in the middle during his coaching career. He's not replacing that kind of player with 6'1", 225 lb Bernard who struggles in coverage.

 

I think if they're not going to re-sign Edmunds, then they're drafting his replacement in the 1st or 2nd round.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I can't get behind this yet. If they're going to replace Edmunds, it's going to be with another elite athlete with high-end traits. McDermott has had Kuechly and Edmonds in the middle during his coaching career. He's not replacing that kind of player with 6'1", 225 lb Bernard who struggles in coverage.

 

I think if they're not going to re-sign Edmunds, then they're drafting his replacement in the 1st or 2nd round.

 

I think if that is the case it does rather beg the question about what they drafted Bernard for? I can't believe they drafted him as a Milano replacement. Milano is an elite coverage linebacker. I don't know about 2021 but in 2020 no single player in the entire league with over 200 snaps had a bigger yard per completion differential than Milano when he was on the field vs when he was off it. I don't have the number to hand (it was in Sal's end of season 2020 article on the linebackers) but I think it was something like the Bills gave up 0.9 more yards per completion when Milano was off the field compared to when he was on the field. That is a huge number. I don't say Milano is an elite linebacker in the round, just to be clear, his gamed does have flaws but he is an elite coverage backer. To think Bernard is the replacement for that seems at odds with what we have seen so far (though granted he is a rookie we haven't played a single regular season game, it is early) and the way the Bills have increasingly used him as camp went on. 

 

Maybe they drafted him to be the 3rd linebacker in 4-3 looks - essentially to play the SAM - the way AJ Klein did for us a little bit in the past couple of years. The issue is that the Bills have been overwhelmingly a nickel base defense. Taron's snap counts have gone up each year. He played 85% of the defensive snaps in 2021. A 3rd round pick for 15% of snaps feels rich. 

 

Which kind of leads me to they think he is an option at MLB moving forward. I agree he does not meet the physical profile that McDermott has traditionally looked for as his MLB. It would be a downgrade in size and athleticism. But I suppose that is what I am struggling with. Not sure exactly what job they drafted him (in round 3) to do. Maybe they don't see him as their long term MLB.... but think that they could get by with him for a year or two if they have to move on from Tremaine? 

 

Or maybe they thought they were getting a long term Milano replacement and then they got him into the building and he wasn't quite what they expected and so that have had to change horses mid-race? Not sure. But I do think his presence, given the capital invested and the decision pending on Edmunds, is one of the more intriguing sub-plots of the Bills' season. 

[ArtVandalay]

This is a terrible contract if you look at his production:

 

28 rec, 388 yd, 2 td

24 rec, 288 yd, 3 td

49 rec. 587 yd, 9 td

 

However, he is only 26 this year,  signed for years 27, 28, 29, 30. TEs age longer out than other positions,  we just bought his prime years as he enters. 

 

This contract is projected for future production and based on last year's step forward there's firm belief if he produced again this year he would get this deal on the market for sure. 

 

The market itself for TEs is totally screwed up after the Njoku, Jonnu, and Henry deals. 

 

I like the traits of Knox, but I don't think he'll ever be a Mark Andrew or Travis Kelce type producer, this contract says he won't. But if he can be in that next tier it's a solid deal or tier after that eh okay deal. 

 

Deals coming up for Goedert, Hockensen, and Waller about to redo his. Big money about to be spent. 

 

IMO the Bills are getting ahead of the market and have no interest spending draft capital at TE.

 

As someone that always harps on future production and prime/ decline years.  I like the deal given he takes the next step forward. 

[John from Riverside]

30 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I can't get behind this yet. If they're going to replace Edmunds, it's going to be with another elite athlete with high-end traits. McDermott has had Kuechly and Edmonds in the middle during his coaching career. He's not replacing that kind of player with 6'1", 225 lb Bernard who struggles in coverage.

 

I think if they're not going to re-sign Edmunds, then they're drafting his replacement in the 1st or 2nd round.

Oh I don’t doubt that next year’s first pick probably is gonna be at linebacker beane just Always thinks a step ahead it will probably be a linebacker to compete with Bernard but I don’t think that Bernard is limited physically the big thing on him whenever we drafted him was that he was a coverage linebacker he’s just a rookie that’s all

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, TBBills said:

I don't think anyone needs you to be judging anything. So no need to wait for any numbers.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

This is a terrible contract if you look at his production:

 

28 rec, 388 yd, 2 td

24 rec, 288 yd, 3 td

49 rec. 587 yd, 9 td

 

However, he is only 26 this year,  signed for years 27, 28, 29, 30. TEs age longer out than other positions,  we just bought his prime years as he enters. 

 

This contract is projected for future production and based on last year's step forward there's firm belief if he produced again this year he would get this deal on the market for sure. 

 

The market itself for TEs is totally screwed up after the Njoku, Jonnu, and Henry deals. 

 

I like the traits of Knox, but I don't think he'll ever be a Mark Andrew or Travis Kelce type producer, this contract says he won't. But if he can be in that next tier it's a solid deal or tier after that eh okay deal. 

 

Deals coming up for Goedert, Hockensen, and Waller about to redo his. Big money about to be spent. 

 

IMO the Bills are getting ahead of the market and have no interest spending draft capital at TE.

 

As someone that always harps on future production and prime/ decline years.  I like the deal given he takes the next step forward. 

 

Yes, based on past production this is an overpay. But the thing you have to consider is how raw Dawson Knox was. He was new to the position and barely used in the offense in college. He took a huge step forward last year not just as a receiver but as a blocker too and his natural talent is off the charts. My view before that draft was why would you take TJ Hockenson in the top 10 when you could take Dawson Knox in the 3rd or 4th round and in 3 years time have the same player. Three years in to their career Knox has outproduced Hock by yardage and touchdowns in 2 of 3 seasons. I now wouldn't swap them straight up if given the choice. 

[aristocrat]

33 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

This is a terrible contract if you look at his production:

 

28 rec, 388 yd, 2 td

24 rec, 288 yd, 3 td

49 rec. 587 yd, 9 td

 

However, he is only 26 this year,  signed for years 27, 28, 29, 30. TEs age longer out than other positions,  we just bought his prime years as he enters. 

 

This contract is projected for future production and based on last year's step forward there's firm belief if he produced again this year he would get this deal on the market for sure. 

 

The market itself for TEs is totally screwed up after the Njoku, Jonnu, and Henry deals. 

 

I like the traits of Knox, but I don't think he'll ever be a Mark Andrew or Travis Kelce type producer, this contract says he won't. But if he can be in that next tier it's a solid deal or tier after that eh okay deal. 

 

Deals coming up for Goedert, Hockensen, and Waller about to redo his. Big money about to be spent. 

 

IMO the Bills are getting ahead of the market and have no interest spending draft capital at TE.

 

As someone that always harps on future production and prime/ decline years.  I like the deal given he takes the next step forward. 

knox is a better blocker than those other guys. He also missed a couple games last year with the hand injury so maybe he has 50-100 yards more. Many people don’t understand how much right ends actually do, receiver, full back, o line etc

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

They can’t pay everybody beane is good but not that good

 

We knew this was coming whenever you draft well like beane Does eventually tough decisions have to be made to me Oliver is a must keep Gabe Davis is a must keep especially if they ball out this year they are young and still improving

 

Poyer if he’s reasonable could still get a couple of years extension I think Edmonds is gone he’s just gonna want too much money I absolutely believe that Bernard was drafted because of Edmonds

Oliver is not a must keep, he’s good, but completely replaceable, Buffalo fans over rate him so much it’s comical.  Po is old enough to let walk.  Davis will be interesting, if he emerges this year, he’s going to be tough to keep, but he hasn’t done anything yet, so let’s just see where it goes.  They can sign Edmunds if they want.. I hope they want better, but Bernard is not in Edmunds league and I think Edmunds is mediocre.

32 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Oh I don’t doubt that next year’s first pick probably is gonna be at linebacker beane just Always thinks a step ahead it will probably be a linebacker to compete with Bernard but I don’t think that Bernard is limited physically the big thing on him whenever we drafted him was that he was a coverage linebacker he’s just a rookie that’s all

No, Bernard is undersized for LB and he’s slow for his size, he’s extremely limited physically.  He was drafted at least one if not 3 rounds earlier than necessary.  They fell in love with his mental game and reached.

[Ralonzo]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That Bernard pick in the third is still interesting to me and it may be what they see out of him that determines Edmunds's fate.  It wouldn't shock me if they locked up Edmunds long term with a cap friendly first year on his contract.  That way they can keep Milano for one more season and cut bait saving about eight million in 2024 with Bernard taking his place.  Honestly, it's difficult to get a read on what this front office thinks of Edmunds.

i dunno. Bernard hasn’t impressed me, gives me that Kelvin Sheppard vibe of decent instincts but doesn’t have the physical juice to make the play, where Edmunds is the opposite. Send them both thru Seth Brundle’s teleporter and you have Luke Kuechly but I don’t know either is the answer long term.

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

i dunno. Bernard hasn’t impressed me, gives me that Kelvin Sheppard vibe of decent instincts but doesn’t have the physical juice to make the play, where Edmunds is the opposite. Send them both thru Seth Brundle’s teleporter and you have Luke Kuechly but I don’t know either is the answer long term.

The Brundle Backer...

[T master]

This is awesome that Knox will be here of the future i always liked this signing he is just a Buffalo Bill type of player & i hope his entire career is here !!

 

I do wonder exactly what Poyer thought when he heard the news though 🤔. 

[T master]

5 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I think you’re right on target.  I hate the idea of ignoring Pouer this year ; he has actually earned at least a 2 year extension, moreso with green sidelined and they need great safety play with those cbs. Edmunds tho has to realize he is pro playin to earn his bag from a different team next year.  He can play hard for the ring , but with each signing , he has to see the reality that they signed Milano, and added two ne LBs to the squad this year.  
 

 I think he has to play above prior years production if they expect to bring home the Lombardi. So many apologists keep calling people haters if they critique edmunds at all, but with that standard , Beane and Mcd must Be haters then as after 4 seasons they still haven’t seen enough to commit to more, and so they ( fan boys) can throw out names and say we are not real fans or we don’t understand the nuances edmunds brings and is asked to do!  They will,talk aboit all the passes not thrown in his area.  Yet  in the end , did he make enough splash plays to finally live up to his supposed pro bowl status , did he finally have ints / PBU’s , / TFL’s , and sacks ?  Or is it more soft and missed tackles after 5-8 yard gains, did he force fumbles with hard hits or slow up prior to makimg contact, did the d get off the field on third and long or,did we see 10-12 play time consuming drives ?  

 

This is a huge hyped year unlike any I remember ( and I was around for the 4 SB run and live at the last two ) and those teams were never hyped like this. I think this is their best shot ( despite the murderers row opening schedule. ), and the D under Frazier has to finally get sacks and be disruptive against Stafford, Tannehill, maholmes, Rodgers to make a few. Then the final say is Beanes, and the question will be definitively answered. I hope they run this team back because they want to be remembered like the boys winning back to back after a great year, and I hope edmunds deserves that chance.  Early signs tho look like he will be depositing his bag in another city, and there’s no hate driving that. 

 

I have always thought Edmunds has played out of his natural position which was what he played in college OLB but because of his size they put him at MLB which he has done a good job at but i think he might have made a bigger impact out side . 

 

But as it's been said he must see the writing on the wall he is making good money this season but Poyer & Edmunds must know they will probably not get the money they are looking for in B/Lo & have to move on which sucks that we can't keep them all .

 

That being said i feel they see others that can take their place moving forward like they did with Harry & others .

Edited September 8, 2022 by T master

[Southern_Bills]

11 hours ago, Breakout Squad said:

I think it’s quite reasonable. Especially compared to FA. 

 

Definitely, I just honestly figured they would wait a year to see how he done this year. But hey if they have seen enough, I trust them.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Oliver is not a must keep, he’s good, but completely replaceable, Buffalo fans over rate him so much it’s comical.  Po is old enough to let walk.  Davis will be interesting, if he emerges this year, he’s going to be tough to keep, but he hasn’t done anything yet, so let’s just see where it goes.  They can sign Edmunds if they want.. I hope they want better, but Bernard is not in Edmunds league and I think Edmunds is mediocre.

No, Bernard is undersized for LB and he’s slow for his size, he’s extremely limited physically.  He was drafted at least one if not 3 rounds earlier than necessary.  They fell in love with his mental game and reached.

When people say this about rookies they are just being silly