Bills sign Dawson Knox to 4-year $53.6 mill extension ($31 mill gtd) through 2026

[julian]

9 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Agree.  I wish there were stats for stiff arming, pancaking, steamrolling, and stomping.  Go Bills 🦬🏈

Haha the analytics nerds would curl up in the fetal position 

[Buffalo716]

Massive signing for the Bills

 

he has all pro potential 

[julian]

10 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

Did Josh really do that?? If so could you be kind enough to post a link to it so I can read about it? Thanks!

I’m not a professional poster and that’s being kind, but is this sarcasm or do you honestly not believe Josh Allen doesn’t have a massive say in offensive signings ?

 

 His interview that just aired on Jordan palmers podcast he referenced his relationship with Bean as the best QB/GM relationship in the league and how thankful he is to management for how he’s involved with the process.

[Scott7975]

IMO great signing.  Unlike positions like RB, TE's are not a dime a dozen and its hard to find a good one.  Harder than finding a good WR even.  Knox may not be elite yet but he has had some elite catches and flashed some elite things.  Im glad to have him signed.

 

Unfortunately this probably shows the writing on the wall for Poyer.  I feel bad for him and I will be sad to see him go if they dont work something out.  Poyer has been great here but its not an elite position to lock up tons of money and he is older.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Scott7975

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I really don't like it. Knox is a fine player, but he's far from an elite talent based on what he's shown so far. I think he's closer to top 10 than top 5. A team that's a league favorite shouldn't have to overpay for mediocrity the same way we did when we were in the drought. If he wanted top 5 money, i would have rather drafted a replacement and signed a guy like Gesicki to mid term.

Gesicki is currently franchised and will get paid more than Knox next year unless he totally craps the bed this year.  In two years time Knox will be barely being paid in the top 12 or so tight ends.  Knox is far from mediocre, even if not elite.  

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

If he puts pressure on linebackers needing to cover him, shouldn’t he have more than 49 receptions?

Do you seriously not understand this in relation to Buffalos’ offense and the fact that have had three excellent wide receivers getting the bulk of targets?  

[DrDawkinstein]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

IMO great signing.  Unlike positions like RB, TE's are not a dime a dozen and its hard to find a good one.  Harder than finding a good WR even.  Knox may not be elite yet but he has had some elite catches and flashed some elite things.  Im glad to have him signed.

 

Unfortunately this probably shows the writing on the wall for Poyer.  I feel bad for him and I will be sad to see him go if they dont work something out.  Poyer has been great here but its not an elite position to lock up tons of money and he is older.

 

You feel bad for a guy who has lived a very charmed life, is married to an IG model, has already earned $36M by 32 years old, is lined up to win a Super Bowl, and will likely make another $20M+ in free agency with another team before retiring at 35?

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

Probably worth noting that Kelce is getting paid $1M more per year at age 32 and his contract grows to $18M per year by age 36.

 

Dawson Knox is 25 years old.

 

Something to consider before you go reach for the tissues, BullBuchanan.

 

I don’t think you, your silly facts or common sense can dissuade those who insist upon being the contrarian on nearly every topic. It seems like some kind of craving for attention. 

[damj]

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

The top five guys between 13.7 and 15 mil so right in there

By next year, he might be lucky to be in the top 10 salary wise. I like that Beane is proactive and tries to stay ahead of the market

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Do you seriously not understand this in relation to Buffalos’ offense and the fact that have had three excellent wide receivers getting the bulk of targets?  

 

There will always be fans who see stat "totals" and go from there making assumptions.

For instance, Kelce and Knox have the same averages last year in Yards per Catch, Yards per Target and Catch %.

One might assume Kelce gets open more than Knox, but I don't have any stats on that.  If someone does, I would like to see the analysis. 

 

I bet by comparing Kelce and Knox there will be a lot of fans laughing at that.

Two stats that I find interesting is this.  Kelce had 92 receptions and 20 went for over 20 yards.  Knox had 49 and 14 went for over 20.

Using the receptions and Kelce having almost twice as many, and they both had 9 TDs.  Knox can stretch the field.

 

How Josh Allen spreads the ball around this season is going to be very interesting.

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You feel bad for a guy who has lived a very charmed life, is married to an IG model, has already earned $36M by 32 years old, is lined up to win a Super Bowl, and will likely make another $20M+ in free agency with another team before retiring at 35?

 

I think you take that a little too far from what I mean.  Yeah I feel bad that he obviously wants to stay here for the rest of his career and probably wont be.

[vtnatefootball11]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Everything you posted has truth to it, but everything also has to have context taken into account.

Ertz was traded and then extended.  He's on the wrong side of 30 and his trade cost has to be added to his dollar cost.

The Bills could of (and may have) went after him last year and chose not to.  Beane is betting he is right to stick with Knox.

 

In the long run the added cost of some teams "overspending" just is the nature of the beast.  The GMs of the league have to live with the

cost of an elite WR being $30M this year and only going to rise.  Bills fans are worried about the cost of Davis in 2 years.  None of us will

know what that will be.  It happens up and down the roster at all positions.

 

Knox was drafted, developed and re-signed and is now going into his 4th year a well-respected teammate by the organization and the city.

For me it's one of those "I don't know if it's true, but I believe it" when I say Josh Allen would rather have Dawson Knox over Ertz.

He's a fan favorite and we all know @muppywill go to bed with a smile on her face!  LOL, that's a part of being a fan of a football team too.

 

To be honest I was hoping Knox would sign for a $1M or so less, but it won't sway me in saying it's a good deal for the team.

I'm happy for Dawson and happy he will be a Buffalo Bills for the long-term.  I also believe Dawson hasn't reached his ceiling yet.

We'll all see how he plays tomorrow.

 

I have been vocal about not liking this deal, but this is a fair (and non-homer) analysis, ie. acknowledging we are not getting great deal value wise, but considering he is a fan favorite/one we drafted, that we can't control the TE market, and that he shows potential for further development, we can hope the development continues and he earns this contract over time.  I can live with that and respect that opinion.

 

Bottom line, he is not elite right now, but if he continues to improve and even become a just great player (near elite) its probably worth it. I just don't think he will ever be better than good.  What I saw last year was an improved player that did benefit quite a bit from circumstance.  No way he gets some of those odd/long touchdowns this year.  I'm still not fully confident in his blocking and hands either, even despite some clear improvement there.  Sincerely hope I am wrong and he blows up the next few years but time will tell.  Go Bills!

[BillsShredder83]

5 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

Am I the only one not super excited about paying Knox top 5 TE money?  The market has already been inflated this offseason with Njoku signing and others. Knox is good and getting better, but still has significant weaknesses and is not near the difference maker of Kelce/Andrews/Pitts etc. I just don't see the value there for the Bills. If he gave us a good deal, sure lock him up, but not for top 5 TE money.  I guess I'll wait to see all the contract details but Would have rather locked up Oliver long term and Poyer short term.  I feel like we could have replaced Knox with an early round draft pick if needed.

An early round pick? So we can wait the 3-4yearz that it takes to groom even the highest prospect TE? Then what? Don't pay him either if he pans out?

[vtnatefootball11]

4 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

An early round pick? So we can wait the 3-4yearz that it takes to groom even the highest prospect TE? Then what? Don't pay him either if he pans out?

 

That's how long it took to groom Knox, one of the least polished and raw TE prospects in recent memory.  A more polished TE like Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (this is just an example) may be ready in a year or less to do what Knox did last year.  We could debate the pro-readiness of every eligible TE and maybe its safer to say replace in year or two by grooming an early round draft pick and sign a solid FA signing in the meantime, but my point still stands.  

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

I have been vocal about not liking this deal, but this is a fair (and non-homer) analysis, ie. acknowledging we are not getting great deal value wise, but considering he is a fan favorite/one we drafted, that we can't control the TE market, and that he shows potential for further development, we can hope the development continues and he earns this contract over time.  I can live with that and respect that opinion.

 

Bottom line, he is not elite right now, but if he continues to improve and even become a just great player (near elite) its probably worth it. I just don't think he will ever be better than good.  What I saw last year was an improved player that did benefit quite a bit from circumstance.  No way he gets some of those odd/long touchdowns this year.  I'm still not fully confident in his blocking and hands either, even despite some clear improvement there.  Sincerely hope I am wrong and he blows up the next few years but time will tell.  Go Bills!

 

He may have benefited from last year's circumstances.  I can't say if he was planned a lot by Daboll. 

Josh will have 3 good WR choices which he will look for first and I have to think DCs will be worried about that.

How Know will fit in this year with Dorsey is unknown to me.  A lot of TEs make a living being forgotten about by DCs.

[Rochesterfan]

20 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

I have been vocal about not liking this deal, but this is a fair (and non-homer) analysis, ie. acknowledging we are not getting great deal value wise, but considering he is a fan favorite/one we drafted, that we can't control the TE market, and that he shows potential for further development, we can hope the development continues and he earns this contract over time.  I can live with that and respect that opinion.

 

Bottom line, he is not elite right now, but if he continues to improve and even become a just great player (near elite) its probably worth it. I just don't think he will ever be better than good.  What I saw last year was an improved player that did benefit quite a bit from circumstance.  No way he gets some of those odd/long touchdowns this year.  I'm still not fully confident in his blocking and hands either, even despite some clear improvement there.  Sincerely hope I am wrong and he blows up the next few years but time will tell.  Go Bills!

 

I just do not understand what is not to like.  
 

If he played out the season and produced similar to his stats from last year - what do you think he would cost on the open market as a FA.  I can tell you it would be significantly more than he got today.

 

You would also then have to replace him - most likely with a significantly worse player like Gisicki at a similar or higher price.  
 

He is not perfect, but he is an excellent fit at the proper pricing for what he will provide and starting as a top 6 paid TE and seeing where that will be before the contract even kicks in will make it even better.

 

 

[WotAGuy]

Beane needs to stop drafting guys that get good and need to be paid. Need more mediocre players in the pipeline. 

[vtnatefootball11]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

He may have benefited from last year's circumstances.  I can't say if he was planned a lot by Daboll. 

Josh will have 3 good WR choices which he will look for first and I have to think DCs will be worried about that.

How Know will fit in this year with Dorsey is unknown to me.  A lot of TEs make a living being forgotten about by DCs.

 

That's all fair I don't disagree with any of that.  Just for that kind of money, Knox better be (or quickly develop to be) an impact player that creates his circumstances, not a guy that merely benefits from attention from others.  We can only resign so many, this deal will likely prevent us from signing one of Oliver or Edmunds (I could live with Edmunds going for Knox, not Oliver). 

[Augie]

34 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

There will always be fans who see stat "totals" and go from there making assumptions.

For instance, Kelce and Knox have the same averages last year in Yards per Catch, Yards per Target and Catch %.

One might assume Kelce gets open more than Knox, but I don't have any stats on that.  If someone does, I would like to see the analysis. 

 

I bet by comparing Kelce and Knox there will be a lot of fans laughing at that.

Two stats that I find interesting is this.  Kelce had 92 receptions and 20 went for over 20 yards.  Knox had 49 and 14 went for over 20.

Using the receptions and Kelce having almost twice as many, and they both had 9 TDs.  Knox can stretch the field.

 

How Josh Allen spreads the ball around this season is going to be very interesting.

 

Not to mention, one is an ascending 25 year old player, while the other is on the wrong side of 30. If you are offered either player, straight up, for the next 4-5 years, who are you taking? I knox who I want. (That was a hint.) 

[vtnatefootball11]

8 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I just do not understand what is not to like.  
 

If he played out the season and produced similar to his stats from last year - what do you think he would cost on the open market as a FA.  I can tell you it would be significantly more than he got today.

 

You would also then have to replace him - most likely with a significantly worse player like Gisicki at a similar or higher price.  
 

He is not perfect, but he is an excellent fit at the proper pricing for what he will provide and starting as a top 6 paid TE and seeing where that will be before the contract even kicks in will make it even better.

 

 

 

His open market value would be very similar to what we just gave him. In fact, if his touchdowns regressed (which the probably will) he may even be less.  His yards/catches were not impressive (not nearly enough to warrant that money). Most importantly, watching the games, no defenses are losing sleep over Dawson Knox.  His salary demands he be an impact player, I'm not so sure he is, nor has TE been a premium position in our offense (maybe that changes with Dorsey).  My whole point is that we shouldn't overly spend on TE, which is being inflated by some elite receivers at the position, unless the TE is in fact elite.  I don't think that's Knox but hope he proves me wrong and develops further. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by vtnatefootball11