Is Allen routinely fooled by pre-snap disguises?

[Matt_In_NH]

So is his accuracy spotty or can he throw it as well as anyone in the history of the sport?  I don't know about the presnap reads but that could be true since he holds onto the ball longer than all other QB's.  I think it could be that he does not trust his presnap reads and prefers to know the guy is open and throw it.  He said as much with the Simms interview.  He is not as much a 1-2-3 ball out on time to a spot.....I am ok with that!  He also needs to run people over less often than he was last year.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Matt_In_NH

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

Sorry, I'm not going to trust a guy who has Geno Smith ranked as the #22 QB in the NFL, or Trevor Lawrence at 14.

 

Hell, even saying Herbert is number 3 is pretty crazy. 

Or Joe Burrow at 9 

[MJS]

Just a lazy take. Everyone said Allen sucked. He is dominating now, so to explain it they are just saying that he is so physically gifted that he overcomes those things about him that should make him bad.

 

But it is a bunch of bull. Allen has progressively made strides in not just the physical aspects of the game, but the mental as well. He beats both zone and man coverage. He makes correct reads. He looks off safeties. He doesn't stare down receivers (well, sometimes he does, like most QB's). He is just as cerebral as he is physically gifted.

[nedboy7]

Better to overthrow than the short ball. 

[Utah John]

As far as being fooled by defenses, the only people I'd listen to are professional coaches.  They watch tape to see what defensive alignments show, and what the QB does in response, and then what the D does.  They can decide after the fact whether the QB made a good decision, evaluating what the D was going to do.  

 

It is entirely possible that Josh sees a D, makes a call in response, and has it not work out to the point where there's a negative play or he has to ad lib something.  Only someone who can accurately decide what all the parts of that process are can say whether the QB got fooled.  

 

No one being perfect, I'd imagine the QBs who do the best at decoding what a D will do, are the most experienced, the smartest, and the ones who study tape the most (and learn from it, not just watching).  Josh seems to have great football IQ, to the point where even the slightest "tell" from any of the defensive players can give the story away.  

 

So whether he routinely gets fooled, I don't think any of us can say, but I don't think the writer can say either.

 

 

[GoBills808]

People still clinging to the idea that he's just a big strong meathead like it's 2019 smh

 

The film is literally out there

[DCbillsfan]

53 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

Yep.  Overthrew Sanders for a TD in the Steelers game.  Hits that one and it's probably a different outcome.

[Royale with Cheese]

 

[Herc11]

Someone needs to write an article ranking sports writers and state the stats on their predictions, hot takes, and accuracy.

[Rocky Landing]

54 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

He did but there are definitely times I remember that he overthrew guys in the end zone 

I think part of that is that he will sometimes throw the ball away, but keep it low enough that maybe a receiver will be able to get a high-point on it. I believe that's what happened in the first TD in the WC game to Knox. The play had broken down, Allen was throwing it away, but knew Knox was right at the back of the EZ, and gave him the opportunity to make a play on it.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

People still clinging to the idea that he's just a big strong meathead like it's 2019 smh

 

The film is literally out there

Real film and not just replays 

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

NFL Writer for The Ringer

 

So, a guy from the Ringer (a .com sports site whose HQ is in Los Angeles) comes out with a not too great critique of the Bills QB

just in time for the opening game between the 2 teams.

 

Right.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

didn’t Allen have the best or one of the best deep balls last season? Swore I read that somewhere

I have an odd take on this...

I think there is a perception among some that Allen doesn't throw deep very often, and I think this is a result of the NFL's camera coverage. They tend to get the closest shots they can accurately get, and that will sometimes obscure distance. And, Allen has so much velocity on his throws-- especially the deep throws-- that there is far less arc compared to many other QBs.

 

There's a perfect example of this in the WC game vs. the Pats*. Allen, and Jones each had a throw to the exact same corner of the EZ, from the exact same hashmark on the field. Jones' throw has so much more arc on it, that it looks like a longer throw (and, indeed, hangs in the air almost an entire second longer). Allen's throw was a 40-yard rope. If you put the camera angle closer to the play, and track the ball through the air, the throw with the higher arc will seem like a longer throw.

 

And that is my tinfoil hat analysis of the day...

[JohnNord]

Saying that he “struggles with pre-snap” is a critique that he probably could make in 2020 and into the first half of last season.  But I think Josh really got better at reading defenses toward the end of the season and eventually audibled or figured out where to go with the ball when facing two high safeties.  
 

The rest of his write up makes sense.  Josh is not technically perfect but his athletic ability allows him to get away with it.  

Edited September 6, 2022 by JohnNord

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have an odd take on this...

I think there is a perception among some that Allen doesn't throw deep very often, and I think this is a result of the NFL's camera coverage. They tend to get the closest shots they can accurately get, and that will sometimes obscure distance. And, Allen has so much velocity on his throws-- especially the deep throws-- that there is far less arc compared to many other QBs.

 

There's a perfect example of this in the WC game vs. the Pats*. Allen, and Jones each had a throw to the exact same corner of the EZ, from the exact same hashmark on the field. Jones' throw has so much more arc on it, that it looks like a longer throw (and, indeed, hangs in the air almost an entire second longer). Allen's throw was a 40-yard rope. If you put the camera angle closer to the play, and track the ball through the air, the throw with the higher arc will seem like a longer throw.

 

And that is my tinfoil hat analysis of the day...

interesting theory. I kinda like it. A lot of Josh throws are low arc and look effortless so it’s possible they don’t seem as deep as they are. 

[Royale with Cheese]

It's true and his stats reflect it.  

[JohnNord]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

So, a guy from the Ringer (a .com sports site whose HQ is in Los Angeles) comes out with a not too great critique of the Bills QB

just in time for the opening game between the 2 teams.

 

Right.

No correlation there…but this writer has been dogging Josh since he came out of Wyoming.  So many Bills fans enjoyed dunking on him on Twitter.  
 

It should be noted that Ruiz quite often spoke on racism in the NFL in the past including the infamous pre-draft tweets Allen wrote in high school.  IMO I feel he was very much biased toward Josh when evaluating him
 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by JohnNord

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Who the HELL is Steven Ruiz??

I dunno, but I don’t like him.

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Saying that he “struggles with pre-snap” is a critique that he probably could make in 2020 and into the first half of last season.  But I think Josh really got better at reading defenses toward the end of the season and eventually audibled or figured out where to go with the ball when facing two high safeties.  
 

The rest of his write up makes sense.  Josh is not technically perfect but his athletic ability allows him to get away with it.  

You mean, "Allen's accuracy is spotty" is something you agree with? I thought this narrative had been put to rest.

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, blacklabel said:

I mean maybe he's pointing to the Jacksonville game? But the team as a whole didn't perform well that day. 

 

I'd say all QBs get fooled now and then. But I wouldn't say "routinely" for Josh, not based on watching him his entire career and seeing the steady improvements in his game. Also, go watch that half hour chat he had with Chris Simms last week. Lot of great insight on how the dude thinks and sees things out there. Sounds way too informed and intelligent to be a guy who's "routinely" tricked by disguised coverages. 

 

Also, I heard Steven Ruiz talking about Josh's mama, therefore the dude is a bum.

 

That int Josh threw to "the other Josh Allen" was definitely what comes to my mind.   But, Josh was under pressure and moving right so I do not think he could see that TOJA had dropped into coverage or where he was (moving to the defensive left.)  Difference being that I think Josh was playing it based on what he was able to see post snap not based on any pre snap read.