100 yard rusher vs 300 yard passer winning percentage - interesting

[Scott7975]

27 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

What's the winning% of teams that never punt?

 

Are they not punting because Josh Allen is the QB or Nate Peterman 🤣

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

I think you are missing two points .  One the OP did say that in his opinion the article doesn't mean you just build a team running team.  Instead, it seems to highlight you cannot overlook the importance of a run game.   The article itself basically just shows that getting to the 100 yard rushing milestone tends to equate to higher chance of winning compared to having a 100 yard receiver or a 300 yard passer.

 

Also,  as other posters in thread have said,  the Bills themselves didn't do so hot when the offense was heavily shifted towards passing.    The offense really took off when they were able to present a decent semblance of a run game.

 

And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. 

Think need the run game to keep defense honest having to be prepared to stop the run. Otherwise team's go into Tampa 2 or cover 2 shell in order to stop the pass. Keeping the defense honest is might be best answer.

[prissythecat]

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And as others have pointed out that number is actually trending in the other direction. You go back 5 years the game was much more heavily in favour of the 100 yard runner. This is the NFL in 2022. You pass to score. You pass to win. 

 

What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last  who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling.  Results weren't pretty.   

Edited September 6, 2022 by prissythecat

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Around 65/35 on average. 

Over 5% more than the last two seasons huh?  I’m surprised you want me Saffold and Brown pass blocking 65% of the time 

 

Only the Bucs hit 65% in 2021

Only the jags were above 64% in 2020

 

i think we’ve been right on the money close to 60-40 the last 2 years.  

 

Maybe we would’ve won the SB in years past throwing 65% of the time.  I don’t think that would be smart with this OL

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Are they not punting because Josh Allen is the QB or Nate Peterman 🤣

 

A perfect example of a stat cutting both ways.

[prissythecat]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Again, the issue is how you measure a successful running game.  A 100 yard rusher tells you almost nothing - how many carries did it take?  What about teams with over 100 yards rushing in a game using multiple runners?  What percentage of the runs resulted in a first down or were otherwise better than average against that opponent in that down and distance?  You need to measure the efficacy and efficiency of the running game - pointing to a single 100 yard rusher as correlating with winning percentages is a nearly useless stat.

 

A fair point.   It does need more drill down to see what drives the rushing success.  But intuitively, would a team that is only gaining 2 yards a pop on the ground try to run the ball 50 times?  Also,  would a team that is able to spread the ball around to multiple rushers to reach 100 yards tend to be on the losing side? Probably not.   On the other hand,  it is relatively easy to get 300 yards in the air when playing catch up or in garbage time.   So maybe simply increasing the 300 yard passing threshold to something higher may give more interesting results as suggested in this thread.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last  who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling.  Results weren't pretty.   

 

Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

What happened last season when the Bills faced the lowly Jags last  who teed off on the passing game all day ? The Bills foolishly went pass heavy the whole day and just gained a measly 20 yards on like 8 attempts on the ground excluding Allen’s scrambling.  Results weren't pretty.   

 

 

That was mostly just a crappy game by Allen and really the whole offense.

 

Including the run game, by the way.

 

Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16. Are we supposed to think that if we'd just kept running and making crappy gains the Jags would have thought that they needed to switch their defensive focus?

 

The problem wasn't a lack of runs. It was a terrible game in all facets of the offensive game.

 

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. 

 

 

Ah, said it better than I.

 

Their DL killed our OL but nobody played well on that side of the ball.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloBills1998]

You still need a 1,000 yard rusher to help take some of the load off your QB’s shoulders. Just ask Dan Marino if he would’ve liked to have had a consistent 1,000 yard back

[Ray Stonada]

14 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

All true which is what made our first 13 games last year so baffling.  Plus, the defense was playing that 2 deep shell begging us to run.   

 

So maybe it was Daboll.  Maybe it was the oline.  Maybe it took 13 games to figure this out or all of it.  

 

I think it was Daboll. There were also way too many plays where we telegraphed run or pass, and too many RPO's which don't always work against the speed of NFL defenders. He just wasn't a good designers of the running game. With Kromer and Dorsey I think it's going to get a lot better. And if the passing game and our D play  at the same level or better than last year, the Bills will be a juggernaut.

[Thurman#1]

49 minutes ago, BuffaloBills1998 said:

You still need a 1,000 yard rusher to help take some of the load off your QB’s shoulders. Just ask Dan Marino if he would’ve liked to have had a consistent 1,000 yard back

 

 

That was a lot of years ago. The game was different then.

 

And you do NOT NEED a 1,000 yard rusher. You just don't.

 

The Rams didn't have one last year, nor did they have an especially good run game. The Bucs did not have one the year before. The Chiefs best runner didn't reach 500 yards the year before when they won the Lombardi.

 

You have to go back to the 2016 season to find a single Super Bowl champion with a 1,000 yard rusher on the team. That would not be true if you "need" a 1,000 yard runner.

 

Improving any facet of the team will help results. But you can't improve every facet, not with the salary cap and the rise of parity. It's a balancing act, and you have to have priorities. Your run offense is a lower priority than the other three facets. It still helps to have a good one. But it helps a lot less than having a good passing offense and defense.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Thurman#1

[prissythecat]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because they couldn't block. Running more would have made zero difference. 

They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game?       Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense?

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game?       Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense?

 

 

No, it wasn't.

 

Again, when they tried to run, they were awful. Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16.

[BuffaloBills1998]

21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That was a lot of years ago. The game was different then.

 

And you do NOT NEED a 1,000 yard rusher. You just don't.

 

The Rams didn't have one last year, nor did they have an especially good run game. The Bucs did not have one the year before. The Chiefs best runner didn't reach 500 yards the year before when they won the Lombardi.

 

You have to go back to the 2016 season to find a single Super Bowl champion with a 1,000 yard rusher on the team. That would not be true if you "need" a 1,000 yard runner.

 

Improving any facet of the team will help results. But you can't improve every facet, not with the salary cap and the rise of parity. It's a balancing act, and you have to have priorities. Your run offense is a lower priority than the other four facets. It still helps to have a good one. But it helps a lot less than a good passing offense and defense.

I disagree, Josh needs a running game to rely on so he doesn’t get killed trying to constantly run the ball himself. Also I’m sure his INTS would go down if he has a consistent running game to rely on

[prissythecat]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, it wasn't.

 

Again, when they tried to run, they were awful. Moss went 3 for 6 in that game and Singletary 6 for 16.

 

9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts.  

[prissythecat]

5 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

9 rushes vs something like 45 pass attempts.    5.6 ypa passing so the passing game was pretty darn bad on its own yet they kept trying.   

 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… around 65/30. 60/40 the last two seasons sounds about right… how many of those were actually called passes that Josh ran though? 
 

Def should’ve thrown it more earlier in that Chiefs divisional game instead of trying to force the run.

 

My overall point is the ball should be in Josh’s hands much more often than not…. Specifically in big downs and big games.

 

Agreed…..  but when it isn’t a big down in a big game, they should be keeping an eye on minimizing his tread to keep him healthy.  
 

if the plan is to win the SB with all Josh, all day, all year, we’re putting our franchise at risk.  We need to take some pressure off of him so he’s 💯 for the big down and big games.  65/35 is a bad idea behind this OL imo.  The run game should be utilized at least 40% and should be more efficient than last season

[Big Blitz]

5 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yes.  It’s a terrible take that has been debunked carefully and systematically in this thread, but don’t expect the OP to change his mind.

 

 

To what?  That Carson Wentz is terrible?

 

Without Taylor they probably win 3 games last year.  

 

Using "made the playoffs" or "winning the Super Bowl" as the only barometer is ridiculous 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

They couldn't block defenders from one of the worst defenses coming into that game?       Or was it really just a poor game plan that involved continually trying to drop back and pass for chunk yardage against a defense that had dialed up pressure and blitzing all day in anticipation of a pass happy offense?

 

No they couldn't block anyone. Until week 12 or 13 the Bills oline was one of the worst olines in the league last year. They played well for 6 weeks down the stretch.... but the offensive line was freaking horrible before that. It was the reason the Bills were not the #1 seed. Zero doubt in my mind.